Syria poll and Europe’s work hours

Summary

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Podcast Summary: More or Less

Episode: Syria poll and Europe’s work hours
Host: Tim Harford (A)
Date: February 24, 2012
Source: BBC Radio 4 (World Service special edition)

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Episode Overview

In this episode, Tim Harford examines two major questions circulating in the news and political debate:

• Syrian Public Opinion: How reliable are the statistics about Syrians’ support for President Assad?
• European Work Hours: Do Greeks really work less than Germans, as stereotypes suggest, especially in the context of the eurozone crisis?

The episode breaks down how statistics are gathered and interpreted (or misinterpreted) in both cases, with expert commentary and accessible analysis.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The 55%: Debunking the “Most Syrians Back Assad” Statistic

[00:32–03:57]

• Headline Scrutiny:
  Tim Harford introduces a widely reported statistic: “55% of Syrians do not want President Assad to resign.” This figure appeared in reputable outlets and is regularly cited in debates about Syrian support for Assad.

• Source of the Statistic:
  The number comes from an internet survey by YouGov Siraj, which polled just over 1,000 people across 18 Middle East & North African countries.

  • Only 97 or 98 respondents were from Syria (calculated from the provided regional data).

• Expert Critique:
  Johnny Heald (B), managing director at polling company ORB, emphasizes:

  “We would very, very rarely do anything less than 1,000 interviews. 1,000 is the generally accepted industry minimum to be able to speak confidently about what people from a particular country think about an issue.” (02:27)

• Representativeness Concerns:

  • The poll’s creators never claimed the sample was representative of all Syrians—only respondents from Syria.
  • This crucial distinction was blurred as the statistic moved into broader media and debate.
  • YouGov Siraj themselves later noted:

    “To the layman, there seems very little difference between the two expressions, but for researchers, the difference is huge. I think we should have stressed the difference much more to our client or simply not shown the Syria data, as there was always a chance it might be misinterpreted.” (03:42, C)

• Narrative Distortion:
  The Doha Debates, who commissioned the poll, used the statistic as if it reflected all Syrians’ views:

  “Syrians are more supportive of their president, with 55% not wanting him to resign.” (03:32, C)

Memorable Moment:
The episode highlights how a small, non-representative sample can become a misleading headline, fueling misunderstandings in international coverage.

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2. Greeks vs Germans: Who Works More?

[03:57–08:55]

• Challenging Stereotypes:
  The episode examines the belief that Greeks are less hardworking than Germans, especially amid eurozone bailout negotiations.

  • According to OECD data, the average Greek worker logs over 2,000 hours per year, compared to just 1,400 for the average German worker.
  • The only country with (slightly) fewer hours than Germany is the Netherlands (1380 hours).

  “Don’t believe the stereotypes. The Greeks worked the longest. Assuming of course this is the full picture, because I’m, I’m wondering whether there’s a catch.” (05:43, A)

• Explaining the Numbers:
  Charlotte MacDonald (C) investigates with labor market statistician Pascal Mariana (D) of the OECD.

  • Greece has a higher proportion of self-employed and agricultural workers.

    “The Greek labour market is composed of a large number of people working who are self-employed, farmers in agriculture and on the other hand shopkeepers, for example, working long hours of work.” (05:58, D)

  • Self-employed generally work longer hours than salaried employees.

  • Germany, by contrast, has more part-time employees:

    “In Germany, the share of employees working part time is quite high. This represents something like more than one in four.” (06:35, D)

• Adjusting for Labor Market Structure:

  • When comparing just full-time salaried workers, Greeks still work about 10% more hours than Germans, largely because Germans take more holidays and sickness leave.

• Productivity vs. Hours Worked:
  The discussion pivots to productivity:

  “Despite working fewer hours, the average German worker is more productive than an average Greek. By this method, Germany ranks 8th most productive by worker out of the OECD countries, while Greece drops to 24th.” (08:09, C)

  • This is attributed to Germany’s highly productive manufacturing sector and greater use of technology.

    “In Germany, the structure of the manufacturing sector is more productive than in Greece. And the fact that the technology is more widespread in Germany than in Greece is another argument as well.” (08:41, D)

• Hours per Adult Measure:

  • Even when factoring in all adults of working age (including unemployed, early retirees, etc.), Greeks still log more annual hours per person—but the gap narrows due to lower employment rates in Greece (60% vs. 72% in Germany).

Memorable Moment:
Tim Harford dryly sums up the productive value of these “long hours”:

“The really important part of it is what all these long hours are actually producing… the average German worker is more productive than an average Greek.” (08:09, A)

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Notable Quotes

• On Interpreting Polls:

  “It’s not good to say that 55% of Syrians, for example, think that Assad should stay when only 97 people were asked that question.”
  — Johnny Heald (02:53)

• On Statistical Precision:

  “To the layman, there seems very little difference between the two expressions, but for researchers, the difference is huge.”
  — YouGov Siraj statement (03:42, C)

• On Labor Market Structure:

  “The Greek labour market is composed of a large number of people working who are self-employed, farmers in agriculture and on the other hand shopkeepers, for example, working long hours...”
  — Pascal Mariana, OECD (05:58, D)

• On Productivity Gap:

  “In Germany, the structure of the manufacturing sector is more productive than in Greece. And the fact that technology is more widespread in Germany than in Greece is another argument as well.”
  — Pascal Mariana, OECD (08:41, D)

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Key Timestamps

| Segment | Time | |---------------------------------------------|-----------| | Introduction & Main Themes | 00:01–00:32 | | The Syrian Poll Story: Numbers & Critique | 00:32–03:57 | | Greek vs. German Work Hours & Productivity | 03:57–08:55 |

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Tone and Language

The episode is marked by Tim Harford’s characteristic wit and skepticism, supported by clear, layperson-friendly explanations from guest experts. The conversation avoids sensationalism, instead focusing on responsible statistical reasoning and the importance of context in interpreting data.

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Summary Takeaway

For listeners and readers:
Be wary of bold headlines and national stereotypes. Large, representative samples matter in polling, and the number of hours worked tells only part of the story—productivity and labor market structure are key. This episode deftly debunks myths using clear-eyed statistical scrutiny and expert insight.

Transcript

[A]

Thank you for downloading from the BBC. For details of our complete range of podcasts and our terms of use, go to bbcworldserveys.com podcasts this is more or less the statistical icing on the cake of life. We make an edition of the program for BBC Radio 4, but this is a download of a special edition broadcast on the World Service. Hello and welcome to More or Less on the BBC World Service. We're your weekly guide to the numbers in the news and in life. And I'm Tim Harford. This week, which European nation's workers work the longest hours? The Germans or the Greeks? But first, Syria, where for months now there's been bloody violence. Many have suggested the Syrian people are being oppressed by a cruel regime, but others have argued there's significant support for the government there. Here's a headline from an article published in the UK's Government Most Syrians back President Assad, but you'd never know from Western media. The article went on to say that a survey had shown that 55% of Syrians do not want President Assad to resign. This statistic has been reported widely by state owned Iranian Press tv, the New York Times and others. So where did this 55% figure come from? It came from an Internet survey of the Arab world by Yugav Siraj, the Dubai based arm of the British polling firm YouGov. The survey covered 18 countries in the Middle east and North Africa and had just over 1,000 respondents. The Central question in your opinion, should Syria's President Assad resign? But the number of people who took part in the survey in Syria itself isn't said. However, we worked it out. Looking closely at the survey report, you find that of the 1,012 people who responded, 211 were polled in the Levant region and 46% of them were in Syria. But more or less we can do the maths and we calculated the number of people in Syria who were surveyed was 97 or 98. Now that surprised us and polling experts too. Johnny Heald, managing director of the survey company Orb, has been carrying out polls in the Middle east for many years. He told us you need to be really careful about pulling out figures for a particular country for from a larger

[B]

survey we would very, very rarely do anything less than 1000 interviews. 1000 is the generally accepted industry minimum to be able to speak confidently about what people from a particular country think about an issue. If you say that this poll covers people from 18 countries, then that's fine. But you need to be very careful when you interpret the findings. And it's not good to say that 55% of Syrians, for example, think that Assad should stay when only 97 people were asked that question.

[A]

We contacted the people who did the survey at YouGov Siraj, and they told us they'd not claim the poll was representative of all Syrians. They say they'd talked about respondents from Syria, not all Syrians. Unfortunately, it seems this subtlety was lost on the people who commissioned the poll and trumpeted its findings. The the Doha Debates TV programme sponsored by the Qatar Foundation. By the time the survey results get to its website, they Syrians are more

[C]

supportive of their president, with 55% not wanting him to resign.

[A]

In a statement, the pollsters at YouGov say with hindsight, they wish they'd been clearer.

[C]

To the layman, there seems very little difference between the two expressions, but for researchers, the difference is huge. I think we should have stressed the difference much more to our client or simply not shown the Syria data, as there was always a chance it might be misinterpreted.

[A]

When we asked the people at the Doha Debates about this statistic, they insisted the result was of interest. You're listening to More or Less with me, Tim Harford. If there's a statistic you'd like us to investigate, email more or lessbc.co.uk Greece is facing more spending cuts as a condition of accepting a bailout deal of 130 billion euros to help it avoid bankruptcy. It's an issue which has risked splitting Europe with resentment in some nations that they hard working, sensible people should have to bail out their lazy, feckless neighbours who've been living it up for the past decade with no thought for the consequences. So, given this background, we were rather interested to discover the answer to this. Which European nation's workers put the most hours in? Because the answer is the Greeks. Charlotte MacDonald has been combing over the figures. Hi, Charlotte.

[C]

Hello.

[A]

What have you found?

[C]

If you look at the average annual hours worked by each worker, the Greeks seem actually very hard working. That's according to figures from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, the oecd. It estimates that the average Greek worker toils away for more than 2,000 hours a year, which is the most worked by any worker among the European countries, just two places behind the board leaders. South Korea. On the other hand, the average German worker, normally thought of as the very epitome of industriousness, only manages 1,400 hours a year, meaning the average Greek is working 40% longer, putting Germans Close to the bottom of the pile, only one other country's workers put in fewer hours and that's the Netherlands with 1380.

[A]

So there you go. Don't believe the stereotypes. The Greeks worked the longest. Assuming of course this is the full picture, because I'm, I'm wondering whether there's a catch.

[C]

You're right, of course. I contacted the OECD and spoke to Pascal Mariana, who is a labour market statistician.

[D]

What explains the difference between our work in Greece and in Germany? It's the fact that the Greek labour market is composed of a large number of people working who are self employed, farmers in agriculture and on the other hand shopkeepers for example, working long hours of work.

[C]

The reason this high number of self employed makes a difference is that these people tend to work more than those who have an employment contract.

[A]

They're still working longer hours though. This isn't some statistical glitch.

[C]

No, they are working longer. And there's something else that is pulling down the German average.

[D]

In Germany, the share of employees working part time is quite high. This represents something like more than one in four.

[C]

So in fact their labour markets are structured differently, making it hard to compare like with like. But if you accounted for these factors, stripping away part time and self employed people and looked just at full time salaried workers.

[A]

Let me guess, the Germans actually work harder than the Greeks.

[C]

Well, actually no. On this basis the German average has gone up while the Greeks has come down. But the Greeks are still working almost 10% more hours than the Germans. And now this is because the Germans take more holiday and sickness leave.

[A]

Hang on, this part time worker thing has got me thinking. Let's say you've got a person who doesn't want to work full time. Maybe they've got young children, maybe they're getting old, whatever. Now if part time work's available, they'll take it. And it's widely available in Germany. If it's not available, they won't work at all.

[C]

Yes, that sort of scenario might mean that there's more work going on in total in Germany, but fewer hours per worker. And to figure that out you'd need to look not at hours per worker, but at hours per adult citizen of working age, including the unemployed, people in early retirement, stay at home, parents and so on. Pascal Mariano says that even on this hours per adult measure, the Greeks still beat Germany, but the gap is narrower because only 60% of working age Greeks have jobs versus 72% of Germans.

[A]

So if all this is true, why are the Germans bailing out the Greeks and not the other way around?

[D]

Hmm.

[C]

That's a very big question, Tim. And the really important part of it is what all these long hours are actually producing. Now, a rough and ready way of working that out is to take gdp, that's the country's entire production, and divide it by the number of workers. And despite working fewer hours, the average German worker is more productive than an average Greek. By this method, Germany ranks 8th most productive by worker out of the OECD countries, while Greece drops to 24th. Here's Pascal Mariana.

[D]

In Germany, the structure of the manufacturing sector is more productive than in Greece. And the fact that the technology is more widespread in Germany than in Greece is another argument as well.

[A]

Pascal Mariana of the oecd of course, all these numbers come with a health warning. They are collected by individual national statistics authorities in their own individual way. And the truth is that that Greece's national statistics have not covered themselves in glory recently. Thank you, Charlotte, and you can download our podcast via our website, bbcworldservice.com more or less until next week, Goodbye. More or Less was presented by me, Tim Harford, the undercover economist at the Financial Times. The producer was Ruth Alexander and the editor, Richard Varden. There are dozens of different podcasts now available from the BBC, including news, documentaries, science, business, arts and sport. For details of them all, go to bbcworldservice.com podcasts.