That's not much gold

Summary

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Podcast Summary: "That's not much gold"

Podcast: More or Less (BBC Radio 4)
Date: March 30, 2013
Episode Overview:
This episode, hosted by Wesley Stevenson and Charlotte MacDonald, takes a deep dive into the claims and mysteries surrounding how much gold exists above ground in the world. The team investigates why estimates of global gold reserves vary so widely, debunks some oft-cited numbers, and tries to contextualize what all this gold would actually look like if it were melted into a single cube. Along the way, they speak with gold analysts, skeptics, and even address conspiracy theories around Fort Knox.

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Main Theme & Purpose

• Exploring Global Gold Quantities:
  The episode centers on assessing how much gold exists above ground, why estimates differ so much, and the reliability of these numbers.
• Debunking & Explaining Numbers:
  True to the show’s mission, the hosts analyze the sources and methods behind widely repeated gold statistics, highlighting the uncertainties and assumptions embedded in such calculations.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The “Gold Cube” Thought Experiment

• Setting the Scene (00:25):
  The episode opens with a playful supervillain scenario: if all the gold in the world was melted into a single cube, how big would it be?
• Listener Estimate:
  Listener Julia claims the cube would be 60ft (about 18m) per side, which is described as "tiny."
• Authoritative Estimate:
  Referencing Thomson Reuters GFMS, considered a leading authority, they state there are around 170,000 metric tonnes of gold above ground, translating to a cube of 68ft (20m) per side.
  • "If you melted it all down and covered the pitch at Wembley Stadium, it would stand about only one meter high." — Wesley Stevenson [00:50]

2. Reasons Behind Disagreement on Gold Quantities

• Wide Range of Estimates (01:24):
  Estimates range from 150,000 to 2,500,000 metric tonnes.

• Lack of Ancient Records:
  Jan Scoyles (Gold Investors, The Real Asset Company) explains that formal records only exist from around 1492 (Columbus' era). Gold mined before then is a "guesswork," lacking a comprehensive ledger. [01:41]

  • "It's not like it's all stored in a bank and there's a ledger against it." — Jan Scoyles [01:57]

• Assumptions & Extrapolation:
  GFMS and others rely on historical production data, solid for the past 500 years, but speculative for the previous 5,000 years. [02:06]

3. Competing Estimates and Their Flaws

• James Turk’s Alternative Estimate:
  Gold researcher James Turk claims estimates of ancient gold are inflated; he calculates only 300 metric tons mined before 1492, far less than the 14,000 metric tons often stated. His total: 155,000 tonnes of gold above ground (16,000 less than GFMS). [02:33]

  • "Because mining techniques were so primitive back then, it would have been impossible to mine as much gold as GFMS were claiming." — Wesley Stevenson [02:55]
  • "My estimate was about 300 metric tons, which was consistent with other studies that are out there and published." — James Turk [02:38]

• Skepticism Toward Turk’s Methods:
  Some critics compare his analysis to "Jedi as an alternative to Christianity." [03:35]

• Higher-End Estimates:
  Jan Scoyles and the Gold Standard Institute suggest numbers could be far higher—up to 2.5 million tonnes (a cube 18m high at Wembley) [04:23]—recognizing, however, that this is speculative too.

• Estimating from Artifacts:
  Inconsistencies also arise when considering ancient artifacts:

  • "In Tutankhamun's tomb alone... one and a half tons of gold... imagine the gold that was found in the other tombs..." — Jan Scoyles [03:55]
  • Ongoing uncertainty flagged regarding underreported gold mining in countries like China or Colombia, and inaccurate or hidden figures.

4. Why Is It So Hard to Know the Total?

• Most Gold Still Exists (05:11):
  James Turk notes almost all gold ever mined is still in circulation—unlike consumables, gold does not get ‘used up.’

  • "If you have a gold watch, some of the gold in that watch may have actually been mined by the Romans 2,000 years ago." — James Turk [05:11]

• Distribution of Gold Holdings:

  • Jewelry/Personal Hoards: ~50%
  • Private Investors: ~20%
  • Technology: small but growing portion
  • Government Reserves: major holders, but inventories contested [05:44]

• Mistrust of Official Quantities:
  The United States is supposed to have 8,000 tonnes, but skepticism (especially among Americans and some members of Congress) persists, fueled by incidents like a fake gold bar found in Australia. [06:00]

  • "Is the entire US economy based on a fraudulent claim to the possession of real tangible wealth that simply doesn't exist?" — US talk show host [06:29]
  • The BBC's attempt to contact Fort Knox for comment resulted only in a voicemail. [07:05]

5. Gold Still in the Ground

• Known Reserves:
  Michael George (US Geologic Survey) states there are 52,000 metric tons of gold yet to be mined, based only on what’s currently economical to extract. [07:41]

• Why Reserve Numbers Fluctuate:

  • New deposits found
  • Changing gold prices
  • Advancing extraction technology "The amount of gold in reserve in the ground will fluctuate." — Wesley Stevenson [08:30]

• Impossible to Pin Down Exact Future Totals:
  The future “supervillain’s cube” size is ultimately unknowable.

  • "So how large your supervillain's cube could reach in the future is frankly anyone's guess." — Charlotte MacDonald [08:49]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "James Bond would stop you." — Charlotte MacDonald, humorously squashing the introductory scenario [00:36]
• "Estimates vary hugely from 150,000 metric tons to 2.5 million. But why don't we know?" — Charlotte MacDonald [01:24]
• "All these numbers are made up of estimates added to estimates added to yet more estimates. Maybe they're all way off." — Charlotte MacDonald [04:49]
• "We could speculate endlessly about who has what gold, but unless you're volunteering to go out and actually count it, we'll probably never know." — Wesley Stevenson [07:15]

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• Opening / Scenario Setup: [00:25]
• Estimates for Gold Cube & Disagreement: [00:42] – [01:24]
• Jan Scoyles on Ancient Gold Records: [01:41]
• Methods for Estimating Gold Pre-1492: [02:06] – [02:27]
• James Turk's Contrarian Estimate: [02:33] – [03:15]
• Skepticism and High Estimates (Gold Standard Institute): [03:46] – [04:49]
• Problems in Verifying Holdings (Fort Knox controversy): [05:44] – [07:15]
• Gold Still in the Ground & Fluctuating Reserves: [07:41] – [08:49]

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Conclusion

The episode underscores the immense uncertainty and guesswork still involved in estimating the world's gold. All totals—whether from industry groups, maverick analysts, or speculative organizations—are fraught with gaps in data, incomplete records, national secrecy, and shifting economic factors. Ultimately, while the fantasy of gathering all the world's gold into a cube is fun, the truth is “we don’t know” and likely never will.

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Transcript

[A]

Thank you for downloading from the BBC. For details of our complete range of podcasts and our terms of use, go to bbcworldservice.com podcasts

[B]

hello, and welcome to More or Less on the BBC World Service. I'm Wesley Stevenson.

[C]

And I'm Charlotte MacDonald.

[B]

Now, imagine if. If you were an international supervillain who'd acquired all the gold in the world and you decided to melt it down and make a cube.

[C]

You couldn't.

[B]

Why not?

[C]

James Bond would stop you.

[B]

Look, Charlotte, you're kind of spoiling my intro here.

[C]

Sorry, but he would.

[B]

Okay, well, look, let's pretend Bond's busy. He's on the other side of the world and is completely oblivious to the gold melting exploits of our supervillain. One of our listeners, Julia, says she's heard the cube would only be 60ft along each side, which. Or about 18 metres, but that seems tiny. Perhaps, but it may not be far off. According to Thomson Reuters gold field mineral studies, which is generally thought to be the authority on this matter, there's around 170,000 metric tonnes of gold above the ground. And if you melted it all down into a cube, it would have sides of around 68ft or 20 metres. And to put that into context, if you melted it all down and covered the pitch at Wembley Stadium, it. It would stand about. Only one meter high.

[C]

Whoa. But are they right? Not everyone agrees with GFMS on this. Estimates vary hugely from 150,000 metric tons to 2.5 million. But why don't we know? We asked Jan Scoyles from Gold Investors, the Real Asset Company.

[D]

Gold has been mined for nearly 6,000 years, and records have only really worked since 1492, the age of Columbus. So if records weren't officially being kept for nearly 5,000 years before that, there's not these official inventories anywhere that we can show where it exists. It's not like it's all stored in a bank and there's a ledger against it.

[B]

So all estimates are based on some serious assumption making and extrapolating.

[C]

Yes. GFMs, for example, come to their figure by looking at how much has been mined. They have production figures for the last 50 years or so, and they think the records for the 500 years before that are pretty good. But the figure for the amount of gold mined for the 5,000 years before 1492, when Columbus sailed, is a bit of a guess.

[B]

One man who isn't convinced by this guess is James Turk from Investors Gold Money. So he did his own calculations.

[E]

I thought that the 1492 estimate was incorrect. They were estimating something like 14,000 metric tons. My estimate was about 300 metric tons, which was consistent with other studies that are out there and published. What I ultimately decided to do is figure out logically how we could determine whether that number made sense relative to the economic statistics at that time and in particular, world population.

[B]

What he did was to look at each of the eras before 1492 and work out how much gold per head there would be for each era. He concluded that because mining techniques were so primitive back then, it would have been impossible to mine as much gold as GFMs were claiming. So he recalculated and came up with the much lower figure of 300 metric tons.

[C]

And so James Turk's estimate for the amount of gold in the world is 155,000 tonnes, 16,000 tonnes lower than the GFMS figure. This doesn't have much effect on our supervillain's gold cube, but that small chunk would be worth a fair bit. $950 billion at today's prices.

[B]

But is James Turk's estimate a good one? Not everyone thinks so. One competitor described Turk's study as an alternative measure in the same way that Jedi is an alternative to Christianity.

[C]

But some, like Jan Scoyles, think both estimates are too low. While she doesn't have an exact number, she says there are some things just don't add up.

[D]

In Tutankhamun's tomb alone, they found that his coffin was made from one and a half tons of gold. So imagine the gold that was found in the other tombs, which were ransacked before records were taken of them. And, of course, since the California gold rush in 1848, measures of gold mining are probably far more accurate. But at the same time, you have to remember that in China, they're not particularly open about releasing how much gold they're mining. And some countries, such as Columbia, there's a lot of illegal mining going on. So still, we can't be that exact on how much gold there is in the world.

[B]

One organization that has tried to do the maths is something called the Gold Standard Institute. It believes if we emptied our bank vaults and jewelry boxes, we'd find 2.5 million tonnes of gold, the highest estimate we've come across. And if you covered the pitch at Wembley Stadium with all this gold, it would stand a massive 18 metres high. But even the Gold Standard Institute admit that the facts are a little bit sparse and the figure is a bit speculative.

[C]

So who's right? Well, we don't know in the end. All these numbers are made up of estimates added to estimates added to yet more estimates. Maybe they're all way off.

[B]

Perhaps a better way to measure it would be rather than looking at all the gold ever mined, to simply do an audit of all the gold we have. After all, the vast majority of gold that's been mined is still used. Here's James Turk again.

[E]

Basically, all of the gold that's mined throughout history still exists in its above ground stock. We produce things for consumption. Everything gets consumed and disappears except gold. And the interesting thing is if you have a gold watch, some of the gold in that watch may have actually been mined by the Romans 2,000 years ago.

[B]

But there are problems with counting it. Most of it isn't on show. About half of it is worn or hoarded as jewelry. About 20% is locked away in the safes of private investors. And some of it is now in technology that we carry around with us every day. Mobile phones, laptops, that kind of thing.

[C]

The other major hoarder of gold is governments. Now you would think we could be pretty sure how much they have stashed away in their vaults. The United States has the world's biggest holding of gold. They are supposed to have 8,000 tonnes of it. But not everyone is convinced.

[B]

And most of those who aren't convinced are Americans, including some U.S. congressmen who believe that Fort Knox, home to the U.S. bullion Depository, might not be quite as full as the government claim and they want an independent audit. And last year one story got these people jumping up and down. It was the news that an Australian bullion dealer had found a gold bar that wasn't solid gold at all, but filled with tungsten. Here's a US talk show host trying to get his head around the possibilities.

[F]

Here's the reality. If the gold bars that are in Fort Knox are fakes, you know, if a quarter of them are fake or half of them are fake, or even worse, almost all of them are fake. There are two questions there. I mean, first of all, where did all that money go? Where did all that gold go? Is the entire US economy based on a fraudulent claim to the possession of real tangible wealth that simply doesn't exist?

[B]

Now we did try and call Fort Knox to allay these fears, but all we got was this.

[G]

Your call is being answered by Audix to leave a message. Wait for the tone when finished recording.

[C]

Maybe there's no one there. Maybe the talk show host is right.

[B]

I'm not sure the fact they don't answer their phone is evidence that they're lying about the amount of gold in their vault. Charlotte. Now, we could speculate endlessly about who has what gold, but unless you're volunteering to go out and actually count it, we'll probably never know.

[C]

Ok, so we're a little hazy on how much gold there is above ground, but. But what about the gold that's still in the ground? How much more could we mine? We asked Michael George from the US Geologic Survey.

[H]

Worldwide, there's about 52,000 metric tons of gold.

[B]

But there's a problem here too. This isn't all the gold left under the ground, it's just all the gold left under the ground that we know about, and it's actually economical to mine at the moment. So over the years, this number fluctuates.

[H]

In 1970, the world gold reserves contained about 31,000 metric tons of gold. And since then, about 84,000 metric tons of gold have been produced worldwide. But the gold reserve in 2012 was estimated to be about 52,000 metric tons.

[C]

So, hang on, we had 31,000 tonnes, we mined 84,000 tonnes and we're left with 52,000 tonnes. You don't have to be a more or less expert to realise this doesn't add up.

[B]

No, and the reason is that while deposits are mined, new deposits are found. Also, as the price of gold changes, this determines how economical it is to mine certain deposits. And in addition, new technology can make harder to reach gold more accessible. And all of this means that the amount of gold in reserve in the ground will fluctuate.

[C]

So how large your supervillain's cube could reach in the future is frankly anyone's guess.

[B]

Yeah, I'm afraid so. Now, if there's a number that you'd like us to investigate or explain, you can email us at more or lessbc.co.uk and you can listen to previous editions of the program at our website, BBC.co.uk more or less.

[A]

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