More or Less (BBC Radio 4)

Episode: The Stats of the Nation: Immigration, Benefits and Inequality

Date: January 9, 2026 | Host: Tim Harford

Overview

In this special "Desert Island Stats" edition of More or Less, Tim Harford provides a concise, myth-busting guide to three major issues shaping the UK's political landscape: immigration, benefit spending, and inequality. With expert insights and a focus on reliable figures, the episode aims to equip listeners with accurate numbers to navigate some of the most heated policy debates ahead of the 2026 political season.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Immigration: Key Trends and Numbers

Guest: Madeleine Sumption, Director, Migration Observatory at Oxford University

Net Migration and Population Growth

• Claim examined: Net migration accounted for nearly 98% of UK population growth in 2024.

• Reality:

  • The Office for National Statistics (ONS) projects net migration will be responsible for 98% of UK population growth in the coming years.
  • With natural change (births minus deaths) set to turn negative after 2030, net migration will account for over 100% of future growth; without it, the UK's population would shrink. (03:13)

  "If the Office of National Statistics is right, that natural change...is going to be negative after 2030, then...more than 100% of population growth is going to come from net migration. So the UK population is projected to shrink slightly without the impact of net migration."
  – Madeleine Sumption (03:13)

Migration Trends Post-Brexit and COVID

• Migration rose sharply post-Brexit, peaking at over 900,000 (2022–2023), before falling to just over 200,000 following government restrictions on visas (June 2025). (04:06)

• Breakdown of Migrant Groups:

  • Four main categories:
    • Humanitarian (asylum/refugees)
    • Work visas
    • Study visas
    • Family joining
  • Most immigrants arrive for work and study, but those most likely to stay are family members and refugees. (05:08)

Economic Impact of Migration

• Work visa holders (esp. skilled private sector workers): Positive fiscal impact

• Refugees: Lower employment, often in low-wage jobs with higher in-work benefit needs

• Overall net fiscal impact: Historically small (slightly positive or negative), but becoming less favourable as asylum seeker share grows. (06:38)

  "People coming on skilled work visas in the private sector...are going to have very positive impacts on public finances. On the other end...refugees...tend to see much lower employment rates...in low wage jobs..."
  – Madeleine Sumption (05:55)

Indefinite Leave to Remain (ILR) and Legal Status

• Definition: Permanent immigration status after 5+ years; a precondition for citizenship
• Estimates: 600,000–800,000 non-EU holders, plus ~4 million EU citizens with similar status post-Brexit (09:19)
• Unknowns: No reliable way to estimate number of people working "illegally" in the UK today (10:28)

Asylum Claims and Backlog

• Record high asylum claims: just over 100,000 in past year
• Backlogs: 80,000 waiting for initial decisions (as of Sep 2025), 50,000 more cases in appeal courts (12:07)

2. Benefit Spending: International Comparisons

Expert: Lukas Lehner, University of Edinburgh

Is UK Benefits Spending High?

• Tim Montgomery's Claim: UK outspends almost every other Western country
• Reality according to OECD data:

  • Total welfare (including pensions & NHS): ~23% UK GDP—lower than France/Germany, higher than US/Canada.

  • Unemployment benefits: UK spends just 0.1% of GDP (among lowest in rich countries), due to flat-rate, non-earnings-based system.

    • Most European countries spend 3–5x as much and provide earnings-related support. (15:31)

    "The UK spends extremely low on unemployment benefits, one of the least spender across high income countries..."
    – Lukas Lehner (15:31)

  • Disability/incapacity benefits: Closer to European average; increased recently to 1.7% of GDP (from 1.3%), driven by rising claimants, especially since pandemic.

    • Claimant count rose from 2.2m to 3.8m (working-age incapacity). (16:22)

Why Are Claims Up?

• Some shift from very stingy unemployment benefits to disability/inactivity benefits
• Mental health claims, esp. among young people, have doubled (700,000 to 1.44 million), but growth also in other areas like musculoskeletal/cancer conditions (18:09)

Is the UK an Outlier?

• Claimant numbers rose faster than most countries since 2020, but spending not highest due to low benefit rates (19:26)

  "...the UK still experienced one of the steepest increases, but with such low generosity levels that it is still not materializing in high spending on disability benefits."
  – Lukas Lehner (19:26)

3. Inequality: Income and Wealth

Expert: Aaron Advani, Director, Centre for the Analysis of Taxation; Professor, University of Warwick

Income Inequality: Trends

• Gini coefficient: Flat or very slight increase over two decades

• Top 1% income share:

  • Pre-tax: 12.5% (late '90s) → 14.5% (2023)
  • European comparison: Higher than France, Germany, Italy; US much higher (18%–20%) (22:12)

  "No other Western European country is higher than us and most are a bit lower. At the other end, the US is quite a lot higher."
  – Aaron Advani (22:18)

• Post-tax (after redistribution): Top 1%’s share shrinks (10.7% in 2023), relatively flat since 1997

Capital Gains: The Hidden Factor

• Capital gains are highly concentrated: Majority go to about 5,000 people

• Including capital gains, top 1% income share in 2023 is 17–18% (vs 14.4% not counting gains)

  • Capital gains taxed lower than income, reducing the redistributive effect

  "When you account for capital gains, income inequality in the UK is higher and has been rising faster than when you ignore capital gains."
  – Aaron Advani (24:13)

Wealth Inequality: Long-Term Changes

• 1900: Top 1% held ~70% of all wealth
• Early 1980s: Down to 14%
• Now: Closer to 20% due to recent bounce back
• Still much lower than a century ago, but rising again since the 1980s (25:52)

4. Public Attitudes: National Mood

Guest: Alex Scholes, Research Director, NatCen (BSA Survey)

• Trust/confidence in political system at record lows

  • 19%: System needs little/no improvement
  • 12%: Trust government to act in national interest “just about always or most of the time” (2024: record low) (27:26)

  "The 2024 election has had no positive impact on the level of trust and confidence in Britain at all."
  – Alex Scholes (27:26)

• Personal finances: 26% struggling, 35% living comfortably (lowest "comfortable" rating since question added in 2010) (28:29)

• NHS/social care: Satisfaction at record lows (59% dissatisfied with NHS, over 50% with social care) (29:05)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Madeleine Sumption on future migration’s impact:

  "More than 100% of population growth is going to come from net migration." (03:13)

• Lukas Lehner on unemployment benefits:

  "The UK spends extremely low on unemployment benefits, one of the least spender across high income countries with just about 0.1% of its GDP." (15:31)

• Aaron Advani on capital gains:

  "More than half of all capital gains in any given year go to about 5,000 people." (24:00)

• Alex Scholes on trust in the UK system:

  "Only 19% think the system of governing Britain needs little or no improvement...Just 12% said that they trust governments to put the interests of the nation above those of their own party, just about always or most of the time. A record low." (27:26)

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Topic | Start | Key Points Covered | |------------------------------------------------------------|---------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | Immigration: Net migration & population growth | 03:13 | Migration’s role in UK population trends | | Migration roller coasters and breakdown | 04:06 | Post-Brexit surge, recent fall, visa types | | Economic impacts of migrants | 05:48 | Fiscal effects of skilled vs. refugee migrants | | Indefinite leave to remain & unknown numbers | 08:33 | Permanent status, numbers with ILR, difficulty estimating illegal workforce | | Asylum seeking & backlog | 11:20 | Numbers, surge in claims, decision and appeal backlogs | | Benefits system: International comparisons & claims | 14:51 | Welfare spending vs. peers, unemployment and incapacity/disability benefit details | | Trends in benefit claims | 16:22 | Surge in working age claimants, mental health and other causes | | Income inequality: UK, Europe, & capital gains effect | 21:04 | Gini, top 1% income share, European comparison, capital gains impact | | Wealth inequality: Long-term view | 25:14 | Dramatic 20th-century fall in wealth concentration, recent uptick | | National mood: Attitudes to politics, finances, health | 27:26 | Trust in politics at record low, household finance worries, NHS/social care dissatisfaction |

Conclusion

This episode arms listeners with data-driven, nuanced answers to some of the most frequently invoked—and misrepresented—statistics in British public life. Through rigorous explanation and expert insight, More or Less demonstrates that while UK faces significant challenges in immigration, welfare, and inequality, the story is rarely as simple—or as extreme—as claimed in public debate.

Whether you're worried about migration, benefit costs, or the gap between rich and poor, the message is to look behind the headlines, understand the numbers, and approach the debate with clarity rather than heat.