More or Less, BBC Radio 4

Episode: The Stats of the Nation: Older people, education, prisons and the weather
Date: January 8, 2026
Host: Tim Harford

Episode Overview

This episode of More or Less takes listeners on a statistical tour of key issues facing the UK: the wealth of pensioners, the changing landscape of education performance, the ongoing crisis in the prison system, and the increasingly "weird" British weather. Tim Harford and his guests analyze, explain, and occasionally debunk the numbers used in public debate, using a clear-eyed, sometimes wry approach to help untangle the truth behind the headlines.

Pensioner Wealth: Are a Quarter of Pensioners Millionaires?

(00:00 – 09:28)

Main Question:
Is it true that 25% of UK pensioners are millionaires?

Key Participants:

• Tim Harford (host) – B
• Heidi Karjalainen, Senior Research Economist at the Institute for Fiscal Studies – C

Key Points:

• The oft-cited claim that a quarter of pensioners are millionaires is only partly accurate.
  • According to the ONS (2020–2022), about 22% of over-65s live in a household with more than £1 million in wealth—closer to 1 in 5, not 1 in 4. (02:58)
  • But this counts total household wealth, not personal: if a couple shares £1 million, both are counted. The real proportion with >£1 million per person falls to 9%. (03:39)
• “Wealth” includes savings, investments, housing, and pension wealth.
  • House price inflation means many have high “wealth” but low disposable income—especially those who bought London/Southeast property decades ago. (04:21)
  • Defined-benefit pensions are highly valuable, even if recipients don't feel rich: “If you wanted to buy a product in the private market... that pays you £20,000 per year, that would cost you £370,000.” (05:49, Karjalainen)
• Pensioner poverty has fallen dramatically:
  • In 2023, 16% of pensioners were in relative income poverty (defined as household income <60% of the national median), compared to 40% in the 1990s. (07:08)
  • By comparison, 19% of working-age and 31% of children were in poverty. (07:25–07:45)
• The “triple lock” (since 2011) raises pensions by the highest of 2.5%, earnings, or inflation each April.
  • This policy means pensions are now £30/week (14%) higher than if linked just to earnings.
  • It costs an additional £15.5 billion per year relative to earnings indexation. (09:00, Karjalainen)

Notable Quotes:

• “So this is based on how much wealth the household has... That would count as two millionaires.” (03:39, Karjalainen)
• “The pensioner poverty rate in 2023 data was 16%. So 16% of pensioners, based on this relative income poverty measure, being in poverty.” (07:02, Karjalainen)
• “Because of the triple lock, the value of the state pension is now £30 more per week than it would have been otherwise.” (08:24, Karjalainen)

Education: England vs Finland and PISA Mythbusting

(11:13 – 18:09)

Main Question:
Is English education outperforming Finland’s, long seen as a global benchmark?

Key Participants:

• Tim Harford – B
• Tom Coles (sauna correspondent) – F
• Harry Fletcher-Wood (education analyst & ex-teacher) – G
• John Jerram, Professor of Education and Social Statistics – H

Key Points:

• PISA tests by the OECD (age 15) have long rated Finland at the top for maths, reading, and science, but:
  • “In the latest results from tests in 2022, England scored 492 and Finland 484.” (13:54, Tom Coles)
  • Twenty years ago, Finland led England by over 50 points in maths; that's now reversed, though both countries have declined since COVID.
  • England's relative position has improved; it's now “substantially above the OECD average.” (14:18, Fletcher-Wood)
  • However, “We shouldn't over-exaggerate how well it's been going on – we’re talking about a little trickle upwards rather than a giant leap.” (16:42, Jerram)
• Caveats and Methodology Problems:
  • England has higher non-response rates from selected schools; changing test timing (autumn, after COVID recovery) may skew comparisons. (15:46–16:20)
  • “What we need to be doing is looking for broad patterns and broad trends... I do believe that actually, relative to other countries, we've probably been doing reasonably well.” (16:42, Jerram)
• Policy Context:
  • New Labour and the Conservatives each introduced reforms aimed at raising standards, with the former introducing phonics and academies, and the latter backing more accountability and standards.
  • In 2015, Education Secretary Nicky Morgan said to judge progress by PISA results; a decade later, England's scores (relative to others) improved. (17:45)
  • England has pulled ahead of the other UK home nations in most education metrics. (14:45, Fletcher-Wood)

Notable Quotes:

• “If you look at the international tests in reading and maths, England now exceeds Finland... which yes, you wouldn’t necessarily have expected 15, 20 years ago.” (13:09, Fletcher-Wood)
• “It’s a good news story about English education, although not the other nations.” (14:57, Harford)
• “We’re talking about, you know, probably a little trickle upwards rather than kind of giant leap forwards.” (16:42, Jerram)

Prisons: Capacity, Early Release, and Court Backlogs

(18:12 – 24:58)

Main Question:
What’s driving the ongoing UK prisons crisis, and have emergency early-release measures fixed it?

Key Participants:

• Tim Harford – B
• Kasia Rowland, Senior Researcher, Institute for Government – I

Key Points:

• In 2024, the UK prison population neared its system capacity (~87,500 inmates vs ~88,000 spaces), prompting a crisis. (19:33)
  • Following riots and unrest, available adult men’s prison spaces dropped below 100. (19:33)
• The new government’s solution: SDS40, early release for most prisoners after 40% rather than 50% of sentences (excluding serious/sexual offenders). (20:11)
  • “It did work, but not for very long... the prison population started rising again pretty quickly.” (20:47, Rowland)
  • Today, there’s a buffer of about 2,200 available places UK-wide (~2,000 in men’s prisons), but still tight. (21:03)
  • New prison added only 1,500 spaces; without it, crisis would have returned. (21:19)
• The long-term problem: Sentencing law changes have steadily kept serious offenders in prison longer.
• The current problem: Remand population (“awaiting trial/sentencing”) has grown, mainly due to huge court backlogs:
  • Crown Court backlog at 80,000–100,000 cases—about a year’s work. (22:31–22:56)
  • “If nobody was accused of a crime at all from now on, just wait a year and the entire backlog would have been cleared?” “Pretty much.” (23:03, Harford & Rowland)
  • The backlog is growing and likely to worsen for years.
• Policy responses:
  • Plans announced (but not before 2028) to abolish jury trials for some offences to speed up cases.
  • Expected further changes: prisoners may be released after serving only a third of their sentence, subject to good behaviour.
  • “There are risks... things in prisons are pretty terrible at the moment. You’ve got sky high levels of violence, really high rates of protesting behaviours... drug use is really high... access to activity like education, employment is really low and getting worse.” (24:58, Rowland)

Notable Quotes:

• “SDS 40. Worst boy band ever.” (20:42, Harford, with characteristic wit)
• “The court backlog... is equivalent to about 100,000 [cases] and that's roughly a year's worth of work for the courts.” (22:35, Rowland)
• “Things in prisons are pretty terrible... access to activity like education, employment is really low and getting worse.” (24:58, Rowland)

Weather: “Global Weirding” and UK Climate Change

(24:58 – 30:14)

Main Question:
Has the UK weather really become weirder, and is it due to climate change?

Key Participants:

• Tim Harford – B
• Prof. Friederike (Freddie) Otto, Climate Scientist, Imperial College London – J

Key Points:

• Since pre-industrial times, the UK average temperature has increased by around 1.6°C (since 1960–1990, by 1.24°C). (26:33, Otto)
  • Recent acceleration: Over the last decade, more than 0.4°C increase, compared to 0.25°C per decade previously. (27:09)
• Importance of averages:
  • “We can have now summer days that are four or five or six degrees hotter than they would have been without climate change.” (27:29, Otto)
  • “Just the envelope of possible daily temperatures has moved quite dramatically in the UK.” (27:29, Otto)
  • High natural year-to-year variability means impacts may not always be obvious.
• Is the weather genuinely weirder, or are we noticing more?
  • “No, you're actually not imagining it.” (28:47, Otto)
  • Every rainfall event tends to be heavier; every high pressure hotter than before.
  • Greater day-to-day contrasts now observable: “Some colleagues actually do call [it] global weirding.” (29:21, Otto)
  • UK winter storms: probability and intensity of extreme rainfall have both increased—a doubling in likelihood, 10% increase in storm rainfall. (29:37, Otto)

Notable Quotes:

• “Basically, every time now it rains, it rains more than it would have without climate change. Every time we have a high pressure system, it gets warmer than it would have been without climate change.” (28:47, Otto)
• “Some colleagues actually do call global weirding.” (29:21, Otto)

Memorable Moments & Tone

• Characteristic Wit:
  • Harford peppered the episode with lightly comic asides (“SDS 40, worst boy band ever,” “Class dismissed,” etc.).
• Clarity Amid Complexity:
  • Guests repeatedly highlighted the importance of nuance and not over-interpreting single data sets, especially in comparative education and climate science.
• Cautious Optimism:
  • Both on pensions and education, improvements were noted, but always placed in context with caveats.

Notable Segment Timestamps

• Are UK pensioners millionaires? | 01:18–09:28
• English schools vs Finland & PISA scores | 11:13–18:09
• Prison overcrowding and policy | 18:12–24:58
• UK weather & climate change (“global weirding”) | 24:58–30:14

Conclusion

This episode used rigorous statistics and insightful discussion to deflate myths and illuminate often-overlooked complexities in UK life. Whether challenging the simplistic image of wealthy pensioners, examining the realities behind educational “league tables,” or unpacking the multi-layered prison crisis, More or Less continues its mission of making numbers meaningful. The episode concluded with the British national obsession: the weather—quantitatively, yes, it really is getting “weirder.”

For topical questions or further info, contact moreorless@bbc.co.uk