Podcast Summary: More or Less

Episode: The Stats of the Nation: Sex, Drugs and Empty Homes

BBC Radio 4 | January 7, 2026 | Host: Tim Harford

Overview

In this episode of More or Less, Tim Harford and guests tackle the statistics behind four hot-button issues in UK public discourse: empty homes and the housing crisis, rising pharmaceutical costs for the NHS, recent trends in violent crime, and the UK's record-low fertility rate. As always, the team dissects headline-grabbing numbers, uncovers the nuance behind them, and highlights how statistical understanding is crucial to forming sound opinions on public policy.

Empty Homes & the Housing Crisis

[01:19 - 08:52]

Main Points

• Claim Under Scrutiny: Are there truly 700,000+ empty homes in England just waiting for new occupants?

• Source of the Number:

  • The 700,000 figure is accurate (from Council Tax data, England only).
  • As of October 2025, there were 754,280 homes classified as empty.
    Lizzie McNeill: "So the data for last year tells us about the state of homes on Monday 7th October, and on Monday 7th October 2025, there were 754,280 houses classed as empty." [03:29]

• Nuance – What Does “Empty” Mean?

  • 24% empty for less than six months: typically transition periods (renovations, between lets or sales).
  • ~200,000 have exemptions (owners deceased, in care, or in prison).
    "Over half are exempt as the owner has died... You can also get exemptions... such as when owners have moved into long term care or are in prison." [04:15]
  • 300,000+ long-term empty (6+ months): Often stalled sales, disputes, or renovations, not always available immediately for new occupants.
  • ~150,000 truly empty (1+ year, no exemption): Lizzie McNeill: "Just over 150,000." [05:48]
    • Only these face an extra council tax premium and are most likely the kind of “empty homes” people imagine.

• Empty Homes vs. Housing Crisis:

  • Even if all 150,000 suitable empty homes were magically reoccupied, that’s just 10% of the government’s target to build 1.5 million new homes.
  • Conclusion: Empty homes aren't a “silver bullet” for the UK housing shortage.

Building New Homes

• Government's Pledge: 1.5 million “new homes” by the end of the current Parliament.

  • Their target is for “net additional dwellings” — includes conversions, changes of use, minus demolitions, not just brand new builds.

• Current Progress:

  • Only 208,600 added to the UK housing stock in 2024-2025, 12,000 fewer than the year before.
  • Target requires 300,000 per year.
  • Obstacles: High inflation affecting materials, changed buy-to-let laws, sluggish sales.

• Connection Back to Empty Homes:

  • New builds unsold get counted as empty homes.
  • In 2024, 124,000 new builds completed, but only 38,000 sold in the following twelve months. Lizzie McNeill: "The northern counties have the most units that haven't been sold." [08:29]

Quote of Note

• Tim Harford: "So we can't solve the housing crisis by using empty homes. We aren't building enough new homes and some of the new homes we are building are becoming empty homes." [08:41]

NHS Drug Costs & Pharmaceutical Economics

[08:53 - 15:21]

Main Points

• Current Spend: NHS spends ~£18 billion annually on pharmaceuticals — around 10% of its overall budget.
  Hussain Naji: "At the moment, around 18 billion pounds are spent on pharmaceuticals in the NHS and this accounts for around 10% of the overall NHS expenditures on an annual BAS." [09:54]

• NHS Purchasing Power:

  • A monopsony (single buyer), giving strong negotiating power but balanced by pharmaceutical companies’ patent leverage.

• How Are Drug Prices Assessed?

  • NICE (National Institute for Health and Care Excellence) bases recommendations on cost per “Quality Adjusted Life Year” (QALY).

    • Threshold: historically £30,000 per QALY, rising to £35,000 in April under new US-UK deal.

  • The NHS generally spends about £15,000 per QALY from existing services. Hussain Naji: "When we look at what NICE does... uses a cost effectiveness threshold that's around 30,000 pounds for the same health gain." [11:46]

  • Implication: NHS may pay double for health gains from new drugs relative to other services.

• International Comparisons:

  • UK spends a lower share on medicines (10%) than Greece (27%), Japan (16.5%), Germany (14%).
    Tim Harford: "Does that mean we pay less for medicine in general?" [12:49]
  • But true comparisons are difficult due to opaque, confidential pricing agreements.

• Rebate Schemes:

  • VPAG: Caps NHS drug spending growth per year (2-4% cap); Pharma companies pay rebates if exceeded.
  • From 2029, those rebates will be reduced — so the NHS will recoup less and likely spend more.

• Health Outcomes:

  • Spending more doesn’t guarantee better results — the US example is cited, with higher costs but often worse health outcomes.

Notable Quotes

• Tim Harford: "It's tempting to look at how England compares with other countries and feel a bit smug... But does that mean we pay less for medicine in general?" [12:49]
• Hussain Naji: "Just because one country pays more doesn't mean that they're getting it right... The US... expenditures are substantially higher... but they don't achieve better outcomes. And in some cases outcomes like life expectancy seem to be deteriorating..." [15:00]

Violent Crime Trends

[16:37 - 22:48]

Main Points

• Two Main Data Sources for England & Wales:

  1. Police Data: Only covers reported and recorded crimes; police have improved record-keeping, changing comparability over time.
  2. Crime Survey for England and Wales: Large, long-running survey asking people about victimisation, considered more consistent.

• Police Data Trends:

  • Crime up 25% in the last 10 years (1.8m to 2.3m offences).
  • Violent crime up 85%, nearly doubled. Nathan Gower: "If you look at the police data on just violent crime, it's increased by about 85% in 10 years..." [17:51]
  • BUT: Improvements in police recording, not necessarily more crime.

• Survey Data Trends:

  • Crime down 40% over the same period.
  • Violent crime down about 50%. Nathan Gower: "...if you look at that data, it says crime has been falling by how much? So between 2014-15 and 2425, it's down by about 40%..." [19:31]
  • Most experts trust the consistency of the crime survey.

• Caveats:

  • Lower response rates on the crime survey (from ~70% to mid-40% post-pandemic) could reduce reliability, especially for the most vulnerable. Nathan Gower: "She argues that as response rates fall, the survey could be increasingly failing to reach the most at risk of violent crime..." [20:17]
  • ONS reviewed and concluded sample remains representative.

• External Corroboration:

  • Hospitalisation data for violence shows a 30% fall over the decade — matches survey trend.

• Devolved Nations:

  • Scotland: long-term decline in violent crime, recent uptick.
  • Northern Ireland: Data volatile; historical decline noted.

Notable Quotes

• Tim Harford: "The police data suggests violent crime has nearly doubled while the crime survey suggests it's halved. That is what we call a disagreement." [20:01]
• Nathan Gower: “The trend on this data is also a really good fit for the trends that the crime survey shows for violent crime.” [22:03]

Fertility Rates: Are We Facing a Crisis?

[23:11 - 30:03]

Main Points

• Record Lows:

  • England & Wales TFR (Total Fertility Rate) at 1.4 in 2024 (lowest since at least 1938).
  • Scotland TFR 1.25 — lowest since 1855. Tim Harford: "The fertility rate in England and Wales hit its lowest level since comparable records began... 1.4, down from 1.41 the year before." [23:11]

• Is This ‘News’?

  • Historically, UK TFR has been below replacement (2.1) since the 1970s.
  • The current rate is a sharp drop from 1.94 in 2010. Jennifer Dowd: "We were at 1.94 in 2010, so it has been quite noticeable. And I'd say 1.4 is very low historically." [24:43]

• Rate Calculation Quirk:

  • TFR is based on age-specific childbearing rates applied to a hypothetical woman.
  • If women delay motherhood, it looks like a bigger drop than may actually occur, but eventually falls are typically real (just lagged).

• Postponement vs. Actual Fewer Children:

  • Age at first birth has risen to ~29 (from ~24 decades ago).
  • Completed fertility (actual number of children when women finish childbearing) for recent cohorts: ~1.95.
  • "Most women still have two children; only small changes in the share having one or none."
    Jennifer Dowd: "The rate of having zero children also hasn't increased dramatically. For women who've completed their fertility, it was about 16% for this latest cohort." [28:29]

• Unknowns:

  • Nearly 50% of women now reach age 30 childless. If they don’t have children later, a true drop will play out in coming years.
  • UK far from alone: US TFR ~1.6; France similar; Italy, Spain ~1.2; South Korea “well below one”.

Notable Quotes

• Tim Harford: "Long story short, we might be in the midst of a fertility crisis and we might not, and it'll take time before we know for sure." [29:10]
• Jennifer Dowd: "The question is, will women have enough kids in their 30s and early 40s to make up for the drops that are happening under 30? And that's, you know, that's something we don't really know." [27:34]

Memorable Moments & Humour

• Harford’s wit about “More or Less” inception:
  "Yes, Radio 4 has gone full inception. In this case, we're keeping with the theme..." [01:19]
• On council tax data:
  Tim: "I'm going to lean on years of experience to conclude that 754,280 houses is more than 700,000." [03:48]
• Harford jokes after a complex segment:
  "If there's one thing we love here at More or Less, it's drugs. Sorry, something in my throat there." [08:53]
• Bantering over spending days in the recording studio:
  Tim: "They'll never let me out. They'll never let me out."
  Nathan: "Well, the beard is coming on nicely." [23:05]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Intro & Empty Homes: [01:19 - 08:52]
• NHS Drug Spending: [08:53 - 15:21]
• Violent Crime Trends: [16:37 - 22:48]
• Fertility Rates: [23:11 - 30:03]

Contributors

• Tim Harford (Host)
• Lizzie McNeill (Housing & NHS segments)
• Hussain Naji (Pharmaceutical policy expert)
• Nathan Gower (Crime analysis)
• Jennifer Dowd (Demographer, University of Oxford)

Closing Thoughts

This episode is a tour-de-force in evidentiary humility: for every headline number, there’s a story about its complexity and context. More or Less doesn’t simply fact-check — the team highlights statistical quirks, changing definitions, and data limitations. Whether about bricks, babies, or burglaries, the real answer is usually "it depends” — but you'll come away better equipped to understand the numbers that shape our national conversation.