US election: facts or fiction

Summary

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Podcast Summary: "US Election: Facts or Fiction" – More or Less, BBC Radio 4

Host: Tim Harford
Date: October 24, 2020
Main Theme:
This episode investigates the accuracy of claims surrounding the US presidential election, focusing on how misinformation and misleading statistics permeate political discourse, especially during the Trump-Biden 2020 race. Featuring insights from Glenn Kessler (Washington Post Fact Checker) and Katherine Wu (New York Times), the episode explores how statistical distortions shape public understanding and addresses whether fact-checking can keep up with the ongoing "tsunami of untruths."

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Scale and Nature of Political Falsehoods

• Measuring Lies:
  • Glenn Kessler explains his team's rating system – the "Pinocchio scale" – used to rate statements' truthfulness:
    • Four Pinocchios: "a total whopper" – the worst rating for a claim that is wholly false.
    • Three Pinocchios: mostly false
    • Two Pinocchios: some measure of truth
    • One Pinocchio: slightly exaggerated ([01:44])
  • Quote:
    • “We do it like, basically, Pinocchio heads. It was deemed that we had a growing nose. It might seem a little too phallic. The worst rating, a total whopper is something that earns four Pinocchios.” – Glenn Kessler [01:44]

2. The Spread and Impact of COVID-19 Misinformation

• Example Analyzed:
  • President Trump linked COVID-19 to seasonal flu, claiming “sometimes over 100,000 people die of seasonal flu each year.”
  • Katherine Wu highlights that this is grossly exaggerated and not backed by historical data.
    • "Coronavirus in the United States alone has already killed more than 220,000 people in the US and many, many more worldwide... we don’t really have the same arsenal of treatments that we have for the flu.” – Katherine Wu [03:20–03:53]

3. Volume & Frequency of Misinformation by Candidates

• Trump’s Record:

  • Glenn Kessler's team catalogues an extraordinary number of false or misleading statements by President Trump:
    • Over 20,000 false/misleading claims during his presidency by October 2020
    • Rate of escalation:
      • First year: ~6/day
      • Recent period: ~50/day; some days (e.g., 197 claims in one day) ([04:04–05:38])
  • Quote:
    • “On one of the days we recorded 197 false or misleading claims just one single day.” – Glenn Kessler [05:35]

• Comparing Biden & Trump:

  • In the first debate, Biden had 7 false or misleading claims; Trump, in the 40s.
  • “Trump is just a tsunami of untruths.” – Glenn Kessler [06:17]

4. Do Truth and Fact-Checking Matter Politically?

• Public Perception Changes:
  • Poll: Importance of trustworthiness in a President fell among Republicans (from 70% a decade earlier to 49% in 2020), while Democrats/Independents remain unchanged at 70% ([06:28–07:21])
  • “...they recognized that Trump is not telling the truth, but they've just decided for whatever political reasons, it's not as important to them anymore.” – Glenn Kessler [07:08]

5. Fact-Checking Biden

• Glenn Kessler describes Biden as historically loose with facts, though relatively disciplined in 2020:
  • "During this campaign, he has tried very hard to be careful because he doesn’t want to earn Pinocchios...[but] he would be someone who would consider high on the Pinocchio scale. But this is not an ordinary election year and he’s not running against an ordinary opponent." – Glenn Kessler [07:36]

6. The Sisyphean Task of Fact-Checking

• Katherine Wu reflects on the emotional toll and persistence required:
  • “Sometimes it can feel a little bit like screaming into the void, or I often do feel like a broken record. But if even one person out there feels grateful for the context that we've added, we're still doing our jobs.” – Katherine Wu [08:20]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the overwhelming volume of claims:

  • “Trump's response, when he feels he's in trouble or he's about to lose, his response is to go out and have more rallies, more interviews, more press availabilities...” – Glenn Kessler [05:16–05:38]

• On Biden’s approach in 2020:

  • “He has tried very hard to be careful because he doesn't want to earn Pinocchios.” – Glenn Kessler [07:36]

• On changes in trustworthiness expectations:

  • “For Republicans, the number had dropped to 49%, meaning that they recognized that Trump is not telling the truth, but they've just decided for whatever political reasons, it's not as important to them anymore.” – Glenn Kessler [07:08]

• On the purpose of fact-checking, despite challenges:

  • “If even one person out there feels grateful for the context that we've added, we're still doing our jobs.” – Katherine Wu [08:30]

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Important Timestamps

• 00:00: Introduction to the episode and the scale of misinformation around the 2020 US election
• 01:31–02:08: Glenn Kessler explains the Pinocchio scale
• 02:39–03:53: Analysis of Trump's COVID-19 seasonal flu comparison, with scientific context from Katherine Wu
• 04:04–05:38: Detailed breakdown of the frequency and escalation of Trump's false/misleading claims
• 05:49–06:24: Comparison of Trump and Biden’s falsehoods during the first debate
• 06:28–07:21: Poll about public attitudes on presidential truthfulness, with shifting Republican views
• 07:36–08:06: Biden’s historical and current approach to facts
• 08:20–08:34: Katherine Wu on the “broken record” feeling of persistent fact-checking

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Conclusion

This episode provides a clear, data-driven snapshot of how misinformation—especially from President Trump—has reached unprecedented levels in US politics. With meticulous fact-checking from Glenn Kessler’s Washington Post team and nuanced scientific communication from Katherine Wu, the discussion highlights not only the differences in candidates’ approaches but also the shifting expectations of the electorate and the Sisyphean persistence required to battle statistical fiction in politics.

Transcript

[A]

Hello and welcome to More Or Less on the BBC World Service with a programme that sidles up to statistics and asks them where they're from while observing social distancing rules, of course, and I'm Tim Harford. This week, things are really hotting up in the race to become the President of the United States. On one side you have the former Vice President, Democrat Joe Biden, and on the other, the Republican incumbent, President Donald Trump. This year, the election has been overshadowed by the coronavirus pandemic, but it's also been marred by claims such as these.

[B]

Take a look at West Virginia mailman selling the ballots. They're being sold. They're being dumped in rivers. What he did even before COVID manufacturing went in the hole. Manufacturing went in a hole.

[A]

Politicians lying. It's not entirely an alien concept, but it really seems to be catching on. Fortunately, there are people out there tracking politicians, inaccuracies, fibs and downright lies. One such person is Glenn Kessler, editor in chief of the Fact Checker feature at the Washington Post. Glenn's team has been fact checking misleading statements in US politics in election campaigns since 2007 and continually since 2011. I spoke to him on Wednesday 21st October, and we began with a question. How do you measure the scale of a lie?

[C]

There's a children's story named Pinocchio, whose nose would grow depending how big a lie he told.

[D]

I got no strings to hold me down, to make me fret or make me frown. I hate strings.

[C]

We do it like, basically, Pinocchio heads. It was deemed that we had a growing nose. It might seem a little too phallic. The worst rating, a total whopper is something that earns four Pinocchios. And then three Pinocchios is something that is mostly false. Two Pinocchios is, you know, there's some measure of truth to it. One Pinocchio is, you know, slightly exaggerated.

[A]

Glenn told us that this is essentially just a way to signpost the magnitude of the lie. The real devil is, as ever, in the detail of the lies, the frequency with which they're said and the frequency with which they're spread. Something that Catherine Wu, a science writer at the New York Times, knows all too well. She contributes to the paper's Daily Distortions section. Recently, President Trump tweeted a misleading claim suggesting that COVID 19 is similar to seasonal flu.

[E]

It was concerning because it had been retweeted, liked, shared thousands of times over. And it was fueling further comparisons that were also factually incorrect.

[A]

Trump tweeted that sometimes over 100,000 people die of seasonal flu each year, adding, are we going to let it close down our country? No. We have learned to live with it, just like we're learning to live with COVID in most populations. Far less lethal sometimes makes it sound like 100,000 flu deaths is something that happens quite often. Actually, it hasn't happened in the United states. So since 1967, coronavirus in the United

[E]

States alone has already killed more than 220,000 people in the US and many, many more worldwide. And that's only since the start of 2020. We're not even at a year yet. And I think one really important thing to mention here is that because the coronavirus is so new, we don't really have the same arsenal of treatments that we have for the flu. People need to know about this, especially as we're entering this season where things could get really complicated and it is possible that we could have two dangerous viral diseases circulating at the same time.

[A]

Donald Trump certainly has a reputation for telling lies. But is it fair to say that Donald Trump makes false claims more often than other politicians? Maybe that's just modern politics.

[C]

No, no, no, no, no. Donald Trump is just in another realm. We record every false or misleading statement the President has made. For the first three years, he was at 16,000. Now he's well over 20,000. When he started out as president, his first year, there was about six false or misleading statements a day. And then it went to, like, the teens. Earlier this year, it was about 20 false or misleading claims a day. And this next period, it's about 50 false or misleading claims a day.

[A]

So 55.050.

[C]

Yes.

[A]

I mean, that is extraordinary. Are you sure this isn't the fact that he's subject to increased scrutiny, that you're examining more statements and that is why you're discovering more false statements. Is that what's going on? Or are you pretty convinced that he is just lying with greater frequency?

[C]

It's the latter. We have, from the beginning of his presidency, read every interview, every speech, every statement, every tweet that he has made as we've been recording this database. And we started it because, frankly, he said so many things that were false, we couldn't keep up.

[D]

And.

[C]

But now this database has become this horrible, horrible burden on our lives because Trump's response, when he feels he's in trouble or he's about to lose, his response is to go out and have more rallies, more interviews, more press availabilities. On one of the days we recorded 197 false or misleading claims just one single day.

[A]

I spoke to Glenn on the eve of the second presidential debate. But what did we learn from the first debate about the frequency of mistruths when both men were given an equal platform?

[C]

We found seven false or misleading claims by Biden, and some were in the 40s for Trump. In fact, it was so overwhelming we had to do it over two days. And the thing is, Trump speaks very quickly and he just has these patented little lies that he slips in constantly so he could have a sentence has three false things in it. Whereas Biden is more of an old school politician who wants to talk in detail about a particular policy and. And there's less opportunity for him to slip in errant facts, whereas Trump is just a tsunami of untruths.

[A]

But does Trump and do the voters actually care?

[C]

I think Donald Trump is actually hurt a lot by the perception, widely felt, that he does not tell the truth. His polling ratings for in terms of whether he is trustworthy are far below any other president. And we did a poll with the Washington Post. The most interesting finding in our poll was that 10 years ago there had been a poll and they asked Americans, is it important for a president to be trustworthy and honest? And 70% of Democrats, Republicans and Independents all said it's important for the President to be trustworthy or honest. So we asked the exact same question in our poll. For Democrats and independents, it was still 70%. For Republicans, the number had dropped to 49%, meaning that they recognized that Trump is not telling the truth, but they've just decided for whatever political reasons, it's not as important to them anymore.

[A]

There is, of course, more than one horse in this race.

[B]

His 2017 tax bill slashed taxes on companies that send production and jobs overseas.

[A]

And I'm curious about how Joe Biden behaves.

[C]

I've known Joe Biden for decades, covered him very closely because I was for almost a decade the diplomatic correspondent for the Washington Post. He was often fast and loose with facts and statistics and constantly prone to exaggeration. During this campaign, he has tried very hard to be careful because he doesn't want to earn Pinocchios. In an ordinary election year, he would be someone who would consider high on the Pinocchio scale. But this is not an ordinary election year and he's not running against an ordinary opponent.

[A]

In fact, Trump is such an unusual figure in politics, it does make me wonder if there's any point in fact checking him. Can the fact checkers keep up? Does it make a difference. It's something I asked Catherine Wu of the New York Times.

[E]

Sometimes it can feel a little bit like screaming into the void, or I often do feel like a broken record. But if even one person out there feels grateful for the context that we've added, we're still doing our jobs.

[A]

Thank you and good luck to our fact checking heroes, Glenn Kessler and Catherine Wu. And that is all we have time for this week. But do please keep your questions and comments coming in to more or lessbc.co.uk. we will be back at the same time next week and until then, goodbye.

[D]

There are no stings on me.