Kelly Grieco (3:04)

These are missiles that go really high up and then come back down towards earth on a predictable path. And you're basically trying to shoot a bullet with a bullet. So it requires sophisticated interceptors to be able to do that, particularly given the speeds that are involved. So this is when you'll start to hear of about things like Patriot missiles, particularly the very high end interceptors for that called the PAC3MSE. They're very expensive kit because this is not easy to do. So for a Patriot you can be spending about $4 million per interceptor.

Charlotte MacDonald (3:39)

Kelly says that the US and Israel haven't shared much usable data on their missile interceptor operation. But other countries coming under attack have Reuters report that Kuwait say they've detected 178 ballistic missiles and intercepted 178. Qatar detected 101 and intercepted 98. The UAE detected 196 and intercepted 181. Bahrain says they destroyed 74 missiles. This data from the government suggests that some of these countries are intercepting 100% of the Iranian ballistic missiles.

Kelly Grieco (4:19)

These are very high rates. These systems, particularly the Patriot systems that most are relying on, have become really good.

Charlotte MacDonald (4:26)

At the same time, Kelly cautions that you should take these numbers as preliminary and not definitive. It can be hard during a war to be clear what has actually happened historically.

Kelly Grieco (4:38)

As we go back and look at it, it's often been the case that these kinds of interception rates, in reality, we go back over the data, we'll realize that, oh, in fact, you know, someone thought they had hit another incoming missile and in fact it was a piece of debris. But at least from what we're seeing, it looks like it's a high interception rate.

Charlotte MacDonald (4:56)

These figures from the Gulf states give you a ballpark idea of how many missiles are being intercepted. But to work out how many missiles the Gulf states are using from their stockpile, you need to know something else

Kelly Grieco (5:09)

in order to get these like high interception rates. You don't use one interceptor for one missile because you really want to make sure you're able to destroy it. And you often only have one chance to do this. The standard practice is to use two interceptors per incoming missile threat in order to make sure that you have a high probability of kill. And at that point if you did miss it, you might even use a third.

Charlotte MacDonald (5:33)

This gets us to the key question, do we know how many high tech interceptor missiles the Gulf States had in the first place.

Kelly Grieco (5:42)

So we can try to estimate using open source, but the numbers themselves are classified. One of the ways we try to estimate this is these countries are largely relying on U.S. purchase systems. And so you can go back over foreign military sales notices to Congress about authorizations to try to estimate how many they actually purchase.

Charlotte MacDonald (6:04)

These numbers tell you how many of the missiles each country was authorised to buy from the us, but not how many they actually bought.

Kelly Grieco (6:12)

Historically, what we see is countries may actually purchase like 60 to 80% of what they're authorized for.

Charlotte MacDonald (6:18)

When you add up these sales estimates, figures, and this research comes from Fabian Hoffman at the University of Oslo, you get a rough idea of the top end of the stockpile.

Kelly Grieco (6:28)

The total across the Gulf states is about 1,800 interceptors in total.

Charlotte MacDonald (6:33)

You can then do the back of the envelope maths. You take the number of ballistic missiles that have been intercepted, assume two and sometimes three interceptor missiles might have been fired each time, and total it up to see how much of the stockpile might have been used.

Kelly Grieco (6:49)

If we assume, for example, that there maybe are firing twice as many for the incoming threats, that would be about 59% of their inventory gone. And if we assume that it's more closer to 2.5 interceptors used for every one incoming threat, then it would be closer to about 73%.

Charlotte MacDonald (7:10)

These, remember, are the figures that assume the Gulf states purchased 100% of the missiles they could have bought, which is unlikely. It's also unlikely that the Gulf States will be able to procure many more of these interceptor missiles. There's a lot of demand and the war in Ukraine has depleted supplies across Europe. For example, to give you a sense of scale, Kelly says that about 620 of the interceptor missiles were produced in 2025. And while the company that makes them are trying to increase production, that process is going to take years, not weeks.

Kelly Grieco (7:48)

The lines are really long of countries that are asking for them. And who gets priority, of course, is tricky as well.

Charlotte MacDonald (8:00)

This brings us to the most important. Are the Gulf States supplies of interceptor missiles going to last longer than Iran's supplies of the ballistic missiles they're firing at them?

Kelly Grieco (8:12)

Yeah, so this is exactly the question. There's a bit of a race here between the ability of the United States and Israel to basically find Iran's ballistic missile launchers and also its missile stockpiles, because obviously if you destroy the launchers, then Iran can't get the missiles into the air. And then this would take a lot of pressure off defenders in their stockpiles. Before the war, the Israeli Defense Force suggested that their best estimate was that Iran had about 2,500 ballistic missiles of all types and ranges and about 200 launchers over the last four days or so. In the updates that we've received, the IDF has suggested that they think they've destroyed a bit more than half of these ballistic missile launchers after an initial wave.

Charlotte MacDonald (8:57)

The rate of Iranian ballistic missile attacks has fallen in recent days. This might be a strategy, says Kali, but if it is the result of a collapse in Iran's military capacity, the Gulf states might be okay.

Kelly Grieco (9:09)

I feel like we'll have a better sense in the coming days if we see the rates. You know, if it remains in the single digits in terms of what Iran is firing of ballistic missiles, then I think the possibility of Gulf states running out becomes less and less likely.

Charlotte MacDonald (9:24)

Kelly is very clear that she doesn't have the same optimism about the waves of drone attacks from Iran, but we're not able at the moment to do the maths on that one to give a clear answer. What is clear is that Iran's drone operation will be far harder to attack than their ballistic missiles.

Kelly Grieco (9:42)

The problem with the Shahed drones is that these are relatively easy to assemble. It means that you can disperse your production far more widely. I mean, someone could be, you know, assembling one of these drones in their garage.

Charlotte MacDonald (9:57)

Thanks to Kelly Grieco from the Stimson Centre. That's it for this week. If you've seen a number you think we should take a look at, email more or lessbc.co.uk until next week. Goodbye.

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