More or Less (BBC Radio 4)

Episode: Were there really Three Wise Men?

Date: December 24, 2025
Host: Tim Harford

Episode Overview

This festive episode of "More or Less" explores the statistical stories behind familiar Christmas traditions, delves into the UK’s census history and future, debunks dramatic claims about parking officers and soldiers, revisits 20 years of Freakonomics, and investigates gendered divisions of housework. The show closes with a fact-check of the famous carol “We Three Kings,” revealing how much of the song’s story is rooted in shaky evidence.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. History and Future of the UK Census

(01:54–08:00)

• Guest: Georgina Sturge (Statistician; Author, "Some of Us")
• Historical Scope:
  • The UK’s first true population census was in 1801, not the 1086 Domesday Book, which was an “assets census” focused on property, not people.
    • “The Doomsday Book...was really more of a census of assets rather than people…The Domesday Book famously contains more records of pigs than of women.” — Georgina Sturge (02:35)
  • By 1841, the census offered a rich view of national life, exposing previously hidden realities—such as the large proportion of women and children in the workforce.
• International Practices:
  • Some European countries (e.g., Denmark) maintain a live population register rather than periodic censuses—a model the UK temporarily used from 1939–1952 for wartime purposes.
• Why Not a UK Population Registry?
  • Issues: cost and civil liberties (concern over “totalitarian” practices, like compulsory ID cards).
• Upcoming Census:
  • Despite considering a move to administrative data, the UK will hold a 2031 census as a “sense check” before any potential transition away from traditional censuses.
    • “At some point there was always going to be a need for this sense check...and then assess whether it’s possible to switch over to a fully admin-based system.” — Georgina Sturge (07:35)

2. Debunking “More Parking Officers Than Soldiers" Claim

(08:53–11:54)

• Media Outrage:
  • A Telegraph headline claims "Britain has more parking officers than soldiers."
  • “Subtle social cues tell me that I am supposed to feel outraged by this.” — Tim Harford (09:11)
• Actual Figures:
  • Of 82,000 in the “parking industry,” only around 10,000 are actual parking officers; the rest work in other roles (managers, engineers, IT, etc.)
    • “Only 10,000 of the 82,000 members of the parking association are parking officers… the other 72,000, they’re more parking-adjacent. They’re parallel parking officers, if you like.” — Lizzie McNeil (10:09)
  • UK armed forces: 147,000 personnel, with about 70,000 trained soldiers and almost 30,000 reservists, far outnumbering parking officers.
• Statistical Cherry-Picking:
  • The numbers for “soldiers” were misrepresented by selecting only active Army members rather than all armed forces.

3. 20 Years of Freakonomics: Reflections with Stephen Dubner

(12:59–18:38)

• Origins and Style:
  • Freakonomics popularized economics by exploring quirky, data-driven questions (e.g., cheating in sumo wrestling, the economic impact of names, why drug dealers often live with their mothers).
• Notable Insights:
  • On why drug dealers live with their mums:
    • Most make very little money, working in hope of one day reaching the top of an organizational pyramid.
    • “Once you go down the pyramid, you find that the average drug dealer is making very little money, and the reason that they’re living with their moms is because they’re making very little money. …It reminded us a lot of other, what economists called tournament models...” — Stephen Dubner (14:00)
• Abortion & Crime Link:
  • The original controversial finding—legalized abortion led to lower crime rates as fewer unwanted children grew into adolescence. Dubner stands by the finding, noting the difficulty of absolute proof, but affirms the empirical foundation.
    • “We revisited the whole topic...what the evidence tells us is that...children who grew up in an environment that is sometimes called an unwanted, you know, circumstance, they have the odds stacked against them.” — Stephen Dubner (17:51)
• Academic Robustness:
  • Dubner maintains that the book’s claims were built on solid, peer-reviewed research:
    • “Most of what was in Freakonomics was built on empirical research that had taken years to do, often with collaborators, and was peer reviewed and published in peer reviewed journals.” (17:59)

4. Feminomics: Who Does the Housework?

(19:47–23:54)

• Guest: Corinne Low (Economist; Author, "Feminomics")
• US Time-Use Data:
  • From the 1970s to now, women reduced weekly housework from 25 to 15 hours, while increasing paid work from under 20 to about 30 hours.
    • “A shift from unpaid to paid work for women, while men keep on trucking as they always have.” — Tim Harford (21:08)
  • Men’s housework and working hours are unchanged.
• Childcare Time:
  • Mothers now spend twice as much time with children as a generation ago—with significant loss of leisure and sleep.
    • “This extra six or seven hours of childcare time...has come out of our leisure and our sleep time.” — Corinne Low (21:51)
  • Men also spend more time with children than their fathers did, but the gender gap has widened, not narrowed.
    • “Men are comparing to their dads and they’re like, I’m a great dad...But if you actually compare them to their wives today, that gender gap is wider than for their parents’ generation.” — Corinne Low (22:29)
• Breadwinner Paradox:
  • Even when women earn more, they still do most of the housework—nearly double that of their lower-earning male partners, driven not by childcare but by cooking/cleaning.
    • “When a woman is the primary breadwinner, she still does almost twice as much cooking and cleaning as her lower earning male partner.” — Corinne Low (23:08)
    • This pattern holds in UK, US, and Australia.
• Same-Sex Couples:
  • In male same-sex couples, housework division is more responsive to relative earnings—proof men can adapt when not in a heterosexual partnership.

5. Fact-Checking 'We Three Kings'

(24:32–28:16)

• Choir Lyric Accuracy:
  • The team preps for the Christmas carol, but stops to interrogate if the lyrics are historically/statistically correct.
• Number of Wise Men:
  • The Bible never specifies; Matthew’s gospel simply mentions “magi from the east.” Traditions in different Christianities range from 2 to 12; three likely comes from the number of gifts.
    • “Matthew...never gives the number of wise men or names them. He just says some men.” — Lizzie McNeil (25:43)
• Names of the Magi:
  • The familiar trio—Balthazar, Melchior, Caspar—don't appear in the Bible. Different cultures have different names, drawn from later legends and texts.
• Were They Kings?
  • No. The term “magi” is used, meaning conjurer, sorcerer, or Persian priest—not king.
    • “The Bible Society points out that he used the term magi, which can mean conjurer, sorcerer, or a subclass of Persian priests.” — Lizzie McNeil (27:10)
• When Did They Arrive?
  • Unclear. Biblical text gives no date; scholarly estimates range from 40 days to two years after Jesus's birth.
    • “They could have been visiting Jesus anytime between 40 days and two years from his birth.” — Lizzie McNeil (27:53)
• Suggested Lyric Changes:
  • The hosts joke about rewriting the carol with “We wise men of unknown number are / Not sure where we're from, but probably quite far…”

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “The Domesday Book famously contains more records of pigs than of women.”
  — Georgina Sturge (02:35)

• “Only 10,000 of the 82,000 members...are parking officers. …the other 72,000, they’re more parking-adjacent. They’re parallel parking officers, if you like.”
  — Lizzie McNeil (10:09)

• “Once you go down the pyramid, you find that the average drug dealer is making very little money, and the reason…they’re living with their moms is because they’re making very little money.”
  — Stephen Dubner (14:00)

• “When a woman is the primary breadwinner, she still does almost twice as much cooking and cleaning as her lower earning male partner.”
  — Corinne Low (23:08)

• “Matthew...never gives the number of wise men or names them. He just says some men.”
  — Lizzie McNeil (25:43)

• “The Bible Society points out that he used the term magi, which can mean conjurer, sorcerer, or a subclass of Persian priests.”
  — Lizzie McNeil (27:10)

Timestamps for Major Segments

• UK Census History & Future: 01:54–08:00
• Parking Officers vs. Soldiers: 08:53–11:54
• Freakonomics 20th Anniversary Interview: 12:59–18:38
• Feminomics & Housework: 19:47–23:54
• Fact-Check – Three Wise Men: 24:32–28:16

Tone & Language

• Witty, light, and gently irreverent, but always grounded in evidence and logical reasoning
• Hosts are playful (especially when discussing Christmas traditions and choir practice), with a fondness for statistical accuracy over sentiment or myth
• Guests bring scholarly precision, but discussions are accessible and informal

Summary

This Christmas episode of "More or Less" deftly mixes seasonal curiosity with statistical debunking and social insight. The team investigates the real story behind the census, pokes holes in misleading statistical headlines, celebrates the legacy of Freakonomics, unpacks persistent gender imbalances in housework, and finally, uses historical and theological evidence to bust the myths behind “We Three Kings.” The result is entertaining, enlightening, and perfectly pitched for the festive period—reminding us that even our most beloved traditions are ripe for some statistical scrutiny.