More or Less: Behind the Stats
Episode Summary – March 19, 2025
Main Topic: Why are more people claiming disability benefits?
Brief Overview
In this episode, Tim Harford and the More or Less team analyze the sharp rise in disability and incapacity benefits claims in the UK. With input from experts and an exploration of the numbers, the program investigates the causes, considers international comparisons, and debunks misleading narratives. Later, the episode addresses common statistical myths, including the UK's alleged imprisonment of social media users, the reliability crisis at the Office for National Statistics, and whether the UK really has the oldest housing stock in Europe.
Segment 1: The Rise in Disability Benefits Claims
[01:45–10:09]
Key Points
- Government Welfare Reforms: Recent policy changes have put welfare spending, especially on health-related benefits for working-age individuals, under the spotlight.
- Statistical Spike: The cost of working-age health-related benefits rose from £36 billion in 2019-2020 to £48 billion in the last financial year (adjusted for inflation)—an increase of about a third in four years. Both disability and incapacity benefit cases increased by close to a million each.
- Disability benefits cases: 2 million (2019) → 2.9 million (2024)
- Incapacity benefits cases: 2.1 million (2019) → 3 million (2024)
"The increase in the cost of working age health related benefits is more or less evenly split between disability and incapacity benefits."
— Tim Harford [03:08]
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Reasons for Claims:
- Mental Health Disorders account for a bit more than half the rise in disability benefit claims; the rest are physical health issues.
- Incapacity benefit data is less detailed regarding conditions.
"A bit more than half of [the] increase is accounted for by mental behavioural problems, but the other half, about 45%, is accounted for by people getting it for physical reasons."
— Tom Waters, Institute for Fiscal Studies [04:09]
The Search for Underlying Causes
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Cost of Living Hypothesis:
The idea that more people are claiming benefits due to economic hardship (“cost of living crisis”) is considered—but rejected because similar trends are not seen in other countries with similar pressures."Basically, this is a UK phenomenon... No other country's seen anything remotely like that."
— Tom Waters [05:06] -
Motability Scheme and Benefit Generosity:
The suggestion that car leasing incentives (Motability scheme) or relatively generous UK benefits are behind the increase is dismissed. Both have existed for years without previous spikes."It's a little bit harder to see how that could account for the really sharp rise that we've seen lately."
— Tom Waters [06:16] -
Nation’s Health Trends:
- Mental Health: Surveys and NHS statistics indicate a 36% jump in people contacting mental health services since 2019, especially among young people.
- Physical Health: Data is mixed, but sickness absence in sectors like the NHS has increased (from just over 4% pre-pandemic to about 5%).
"There's more people who are in contact with NHS mental health services since the pandemic, that's gone up really quite rapidly. It's a 36% increase since 2019."
— Tom Waters [07:19]- Young People:
- Growth in claims is fastest among young adults. A 20-year-old today is as likely to claim as a 39-year-old was in 2019.
- Most young claimants cite mental and behavioural problems.
"About 6 to 7% of people in their 20s are claiming, and most young people on disability benefits get it for mental and behavioral problems."
— Tom Waters [09:20]
Segment 2: Statistical Clarification — Social Media Jail Claims
[12:30–20:56]
Key Points
- Misinformation: The episode responds to a viral claim that the UK imprisons more people for social media posts than Russia.
- The claim, repeated by prominent figures including Carla Sands and Elon Musk, is traced to a misinterpretation (arrests vs. imprisonments, differing legal contexts).
- Actual Figures:
- UK (2017): 3,300 arrests under the Communications Act (not all for social media posts, very few leading to prison). Most sentences are fines, community service, restraining orders.
- Russia (2017): 411 criminal cases for online activity (frequently involving political or anti-government activity).
"These types of crimes commonly receive sentences like fines, community service, restraining orders and being made to pay compensation to the victim. People generally only receive jail sentences under the most extreme cases..."
— Lizzie McNeil [15:48]
- Freedom Context:
- Freedom House scores (out of 100): UK (78), Russia (20). Russia's real numbers are likely far worse, but data is unreliable due to the secretive state.
- Prisoners of Conscience:
- Amnesty International explains that imprisonment for advocacy of violence or hatred does not count; data for Russia is far higher on “prisoners of conscience” and political prisoners.
"All in all, this is not a fact. The UK does not have more people in jail than Russia because they spoke what they thought was right or had an interest online."
— Lizzie McNeil [20:48]
Segment 3: The Crisis in Labour Market Statistics
[22:36–29:22]
Key Points
- Importance of the Labour Force Survey (LFS):
- Previously the most reliable source on jobs and employment trends in the UK, used by policymakers and economists.
- Crisis Unfolds:
- Falling response rates, worsened by the pandemic and a switch from in-person to telephone interviews.
- Attempted transition to a new “Transformed Labour Force Survey” caused greater disruption when resources were reallocated. By mid-2023, data quality collapsed so badly that the ONS suspended publication.
"This data is essential for guiding the big decisions in public life… If this data is useless, we are flailing around… with our eyes shut."
— Tim Harford [24:44]
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Current Situation:
- Experts now consider LFS data “more or less unusable.”
- Data on crucial sub-groups (like young people’s employment) is especially unreliable.
"Most economists at the moment think it is more or less unusable."
— Delphine Strauss [27:32]"With the overall sample size of the labour force survey falling over time, that just means it's getting more and more difficult to look at smaller groups."
— Hannah Slaughter, Resolution Foundation [28:55]
Segment 4: Myths about UK Housing Stock
[30:06–30:39]
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Claim: The UK has the oldest housing stock in Europe.
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Short and definitive answer:
"Yes, we do have the oldest housing stock in Europe."
— Delphine Strauss [30:36] -
More detail promised for an upcoming episode.
Notable Quotes & Moments
-
On welfare cost increases:
"That is up about a third in four years. And those numbers do adjust for inflation."
— Tim Harford [02:09] -
On international comparisons:
"No other country's seen anything remotely like that."
— Tom Waters [05:22] -
On statistical pitfalls:
"Not all statistics are equal... we spend much of our time chasing down the spurious, the flaky and the downright wrong."
— Tim Harford [22:36] -
On debunking social media prison myths:
"This is not a fact. The UK does not have more people in jail than Russia because they spoke what they thought was right or had an interest online."
— Lizzie McNeil [20:48]
Timestamps for Key Segments
- 01:45 – Introduction to welfare debate and benefit claims
- 04:09 – Mental vs. physical health as drivers of disability benefits (Tom Waters)
- 05:06 – International context for benefit claim spikes
- 06:16 – Motability scheme and generosity theory debunked
- 07:19 – Evidence for worsening health and mental health specifics
- 09:20 – Young people disproportionately affected
- 12:30 – Social media jail claims examined
- 15:48 – Actual outcomes: arrests, not prison sentences
- 17:09 – Freedom House data on UK vs. Russia
- 24:10 – The crisis in Labour Force Survey reliability begins
- 27:32 – Economists lose faith in LFS data
- 30:06 – UK housing stock age claim addressed
Conclusion
This episode of More or Less expertly unravels complex and emotive issues, grounding discussions in solid statistical scrutiny and expert testimony. The show highlights just how challenging it can be to interpret changes in health and welfare data, the perils of international comparisons, and the dangers of misreading statistics for political ends. If you want a reality check on headlines and social media claims, this episode delivers.