Will 40% of the world's workforce really be in Africa by 2050?

Summary

Podcast Summary: More or Less

Episode Title: Will 40% of the world’s workforce really be in Africa by 2050?
Date: June 22, 2013
Host: Ruth Alexander
Guests: Francois Pelletier (UN Population Division), Sarah Walters (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine), Ben Carter, Captain Ian Hollingworth

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Episode Overview

This episode of More or Less investigates the accuracy of a claim by U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry: that by 2050, 40% of the world’s workforce will be based in Africa. Host Ruth Alexander examines this statistic through interviews with demography experts and evaluates how Africa’s population is likely to shape the global workforce in the coming decades. The episode also features a signature, lighter analysis—this time, the logistics of a Hollywood blockbuster action sequence.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Assessing the "40% African Workforce by 2050" Claim

(Starts at 00:43)

• John Kerry's Remark:
  At a speech in Ethiopia, John Kerry claimed:

  "Over the next 35 years, Africa will become 40% of the entire world's workforce."
  (00:55)

• Expert Evidence:

  • Francois Pelletier, UN Population Division, provides actual projections:
    • By 2050, Africa’s working-age population (25-59) will rise from 380 million to nearly 1 billion.
    • This equates to the continent's share of the global workforce increasing from 12% to 23%.
    • Quote:

      “This implies a doubling of its share in the world population workforce from 12% to 23%.” (01:37)

  • Kerry's 40% figure is an overestimate when talking about the workforce by mid-century.

• Possible Source of Error:

  • Ruth Alexander reveals Kerry may have initially misspoken.
  • The day before, at the African Union Summit, Kerry correctly indicated that over 40% of the world’s youth would live in Africa in the next three generations.
    • This is a different metric—youth, not workforce.

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2. Will 40% of the World's Youth Be African?

(Around 02:30 – 03:12)

• Defining "Youth":

  • UN defines youth as those aged 15–24.

• Current and Projected Figures (Francois Pelletier):

  • Today: 18% of the world’s youth are in Africa.
  • 2050: That figure may reach 33%.
  • 2100: Up to 45%—this supports Kerry’s “over 40%” claim, but only by the end of the century and only for youth.
    • Quote:

      “That figure could reach 33% in 2050 and 45% in 2100.” (02:54)

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3. Why Is Africa’s Population Growing So Much Faster?

(03:13 – 04:45)

• Expert Analysis (Sarah Walters):
  • High current fertility levels drive Africa’s rapid population growth.
  • Presently, Africa’s average is 4.7 children per woman, compared to ‘replacement level’ elsewhere.
  • Of 31 countries with fertility rates above 5 children per woman, 29 are African.
  • Even as fertility rates decline, today’s high rates will leave a demographic legacy.
    • Quote:

      “…even though fertility will decline over time, the legacy of the very high fertility that we have today will continue…” (04:33)

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4. Africa’s Demographic Future

(03:13 – 04:45, 03:12)

• By 2050:
  • Africa’s population may double from 1.1 billion to 2.4 billion.
• By 2100:
  • Population may almost quadruple to over 4 billion.
• Africa will account for more than half of all global population growth between now and 2050.

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5. “Fun with Numbers”: Fast & Furious 6 Runway Length

(Transition at 04:45, Main section 05:23 – 08:56)

After discussing African demography, the show humorously “crunches” numbers from Fast & Furious 6.

• The crew assesses the infamous “13-minute runway scene.”

• Ruth Alexander and Ben Carter estimate:

  • Average car speed: 120 mph over 13 minutes suggests a 26-mile runway, a “conservative” estimate.
  • After factoring simultaneous action, they recalculate the scene and reduce the estimate:

    “…our best estimate after calculating plane speed, car speed and simultaneous action sequences is that the runway is 18.37 miles long…” (08:37, Ben Carter)

  • For comparison, the world's longest real paved runway is just 3.5 miles.

• Memorable Exchange:

  • Ruth Alexander:

    “Wow. Thanks, Ben. Who would have thought it? Hollywood lied to us.” (08:56)

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Notable Quotes (by Timestamp)

• John Kerry, U.S. Secretary of State:

  “Over the next 35 years, Africa will become 40% of the entire world's workforce.” (00:55)

• Francois Pelletier, UN:

  “Doubling of its share in the world population workforce from 12% to 23%.” (01:37)
  “In 2050…33% [of the world’s youth will be African]. By 2100, 45%.” (02:54)

• Sarah Walters, Demographer:

  “The highest fertility rates in the world are found in Africa… 29 of 31 countries [with fertility over 5] are in Africa.” (04:20)
  “Even though fertility will decline over time, the legacy of very high fertility… will continue to be felt in what’s happening in the future.” (04:33)

• Ruth Alexander & Ben Carter, on Fast & Furious Runway:

  “So the runway actually is…” (08:35, Ruth)
  “…18.37 miles long, which is still a very long runway…” (08:37, Ben)
  “Hollywood lied to us.” (08:56, Ruth)

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Important Timestamps

• 00:43: Introduction of main question—Africa’s workforce in 2050
• 00:55 – 03:12: Interview with Francois Pelletier about demographic projections
• 03:13 – 04:45: Sarah Walters on why Africa’s population is growing
• 05:23 – 08:56: Fast & Furious 6 runway maths with Ben Carter
• 08:37: Final calculation: the “impossibly” long runway

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Tone & Style

The tone is warm, quick-witted, and educational, blending statistical rigor with a dash of dry humor, especially in the playful analysis of the action-film sequence. The hosts take care to debunk viral misstatements with clear, expert-backed evidence, making statistics accessible and engaging.

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In Summary

• John Kerry’s claim that Africa will comprise 40% of the world's workforce by 2050 is a significant exaggeration—the best estimate is about 23%.
• The 40% figure may be accurate only for “youth” projections, and then only by the end of the century, not mid-century.
• Africa’s rapidly growing population is the result of persistently high fertility rates, which while declining, still vastly exceed global averages.
• The episode closes with a classic “More or Less” debunking—this time, the “impossibly long runway” in Fast & Furious 6.
• Statistics can clarify both the world’s demographic future and the make-believe world of Hollywood stunt sequences.

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For further details or to request a statistical investigation, contact:
[e-mail] or visit bbcworldservice.com/moreorless.

Transcript

[BBC Announcer]

Thank you for downloading from the BBC. For details of our complete range of podcasts and our terms of use, go to bbcworldserveys.com podcasts.

[Ruth Alexander]

This is the short edition of More or Less, first broadcast on the BBC World Service. Hello, and welcome to More or Less on the BBC World Service, the freewheeling number detectives in the great statistical car chase of life, I'm Ruth Alexander. This week we run our slide rule over the Hollywood blockbuster Fast and Furious 6.

[Unknown Listener/Interjection]

Ride or die.

[Ruth Alexander]

But first is Africa on the brink of taking over the world? Loyal listener Albert Bundy from Nigeria raised a quizzical eyebrow at this claim from the US Secretary of State John Kerry.

[John Kerry]

What I see in Africa, what I see around the world are explosive numbers of young people. And over the next 35 years, Africa will become 40% of the entire world's workforce.

[Ruth Alexander]

John Kerry, addressing the University of Addis Ababa in Ethiopia, can he really be right to say that 40% of the world's workforce will be based in Africa by about 2050? Well, happily we have a hotline not just to the United Nations Population Division, but to the head of its projections team, Francois Pelletier, who's just published the latest numbers on what the future looks like in Africa.

[Francois Pelletier]

The number of people in the main working ages from 25 to 59 years is projected to increase from 380 million to close to a billion by 2050, which represents a 2.6 fold increase in terms of percentage. This implies a doubling of its share in the world population workforce from 12% to 23%.

[Ruth Alexander]

So the proportion of the world's working age people who are based in Africa will double in just 35 years or so. By 2050, a billion people on that continent will make up 23%, almost a quarter of the world's potential workforce. That is a big number, but it does fall short of John Kerry's 40%. So where did he get this number from? Well, we think he actually just misspoke. And indeed, we've discovered that just the day before he addressed the university audience, he spoke at the African Union 50th Anniversary Summit and got the number about right. He did then, though, make another interesting point using the magic 40% figure. But he was talking about something else. In the next three generations, he said more than 40% of the entire world's youth will live in Africa. Well, we wondered, could that be true? Again, we turn to our UN man,

[Francois Pelletier]

Francois Pelletier, currently in the population 15 to 24, which is our definition of young people, 18% of the world's young people in that age bracket will be in Africa. That figure could reach 33% in 2050 and 45% in 2100.

[Ruth Alexander]

Sir John Kerry was pretty much correct. By 2100, 45% of young people will live in Africa. Taking its population as a whole this century, Africa's story will be one of incredible growth beyond that of any other region in the world. It's expected to account for more than half of the total global population growth between now and 2050, which, which would see its 1.1 billion population of today more than double to 2.4 billion. By 2100, the population is expected to almost quadruple to more than 4 billion people. So why is the African population predicted to grow so much this century? Sarah Walters, a demographer from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, says tomorrow's story is being written today.

[Sarah Walters]

The reason why Africa is projected to grow so much more significantly than anywhere else is because of the very high levels of current fertility and the projected trend in fertility which even though it will decline, it will remain higher than elsewhere. So today, for example, the total fertility rate. So the number of children per woman in Africa is 4.7, whereas in each of the other continents it is at replacement level. And the highest fertility rates in the world are found in Africa. So of 31 countries where fertility is over 5 births per woman, 29 of those are found in Africa. So even though fertility will decline over time, the legacy of the very high fertility that we have today will continue to be felt in what's happening in the future.

[Ruth Alexander]

Demography expert Sarah Walters on Africa. One to watch now on More or Less. We've never shied away from doing the big stories, but this week we take on what's perhaps our biggest challenge yet. Yes, it came to a surprise to me as well. But today we are doing the numbers behind Fast and Furious 6. With me is the Vin Diesel of More or Less, Ben Carter. So, Ben, the big question. Why are we doing an item on Fast and Furious six?

[Ben Carter]

Because it's a great film.

[Ruth Alexander]

Really?

[Ben Carter]

Well, it's good fun, a huge global success, and there are interesting numbers involved with the climactic scene on the Runway.

[Ruth Alexander]

You're not going to spoil the film, though, are you? For all the unlucky people who, like me, have not yet managed to see this film?

[Ben Carter]

Ruth, we would never do that. Spoiling the film is the job of the movie trailer. We won't be talking about anything that isn't in that trailer.

[Ruth Alexander]

Well, that seems fair.

[Ben Carter]

Okay, in the scene that we're interested in, a huge cargo plane lands on a Runway where it's chased by fast cars and furious men and women. Some cars manage to drive onto the plane through the cargo doors at the back while it's taxiing along the Runway. For various plot reasons which are too contrived to mention, the plane carries on taxiing for several more minutes before trying to take off. At which point furious men use their cars to pull down the wings to stop the plane flying away.

[Ruth Alexander]

This all sounds very ill advised, very dangerous.

[Ben Carter]

It is a very long and incredible 13 minutes worth of high speed action. But there is a problem that has occurred to many people after they've left the cinema. How long is the Runway if people are driving on it for 13 minutes at speed fast enough to keep up with a plane landing and taking off.

[Ruth Alexander]

Aha. Okay, I spy the kind of calculation we do here on More or Less. So this is why we're doing this story. How long is the Runway then, Ben?

[Ben Carter]

Well, the key to this calculation is the speed of the plane. So I contacted pilot Captain Ian Hollingworth to ask him what the landing speed might be for a large cargo plane.

[Captain Ian Hollingworth]

I think the Antonov that you're referring to is pretty similar in size to the Boeing 747400 which I've flown. Landing speeds would generally be 140 to 150 miles per hour.

[Ben Carter]

As far as calculating the speed of the plane when it lands on the Runway, that's difficult because Captain Hollingworth told me that once you land and decelerate, it's not possible to then speed the plane up and take off again as happens in the film. We also needed to know the takeoff speed. Here's Captain Hollingworth again.

[Captain Ian Hollingworth]

It depends with a large aeroplane on the weight. In the uk under normal conditions it might take you somewhere around about a minute to get to the correct speed again around about 150 miles per hour, maybe a little bit more before you're at a safe speed to fly the aeroplane.

[Ben Carter]

Now, the cars speed up and slow down during the 13 minutes and we've taken an estimated average speed of 120 miles an hour. So two miles every minute makes the Runway 26 miles long. And that's a conservative estimate. Across the Internet, people have been trying to come up with a figure and many are nearer 30 miles. But we think these estimates are all making the same mistake, forgetting it's just a silly movie. Yes, Ruth, in a way you're right. It's a movie. So when the hero is grappling with the villain on the plane, the film can cut from the fight to what is going on outside on the Runway. Both these things are happening at the same time. Because it's a film, you can see everything. So we looked at the sequence carefully and recalculated how long the plane is actually on the Runway. It's difficult to be exact, but we think it's only for nine min.

[Ruth Alexander]

So the Runway actually is Our best

[Ben Carter]

estimate after calculating plane speed, car speed and simultaneous action sequences is that the Runway is 18.37 miles long, which is still a very long Runway when you consider the longest paved Runway in the world is at the Chando Bamdar airport in China at around three and a half miles.

[Ruth Alexander]

Wow. Thanks, Ben. Who would have thought it? Hollywood lied to us. If there are any numbers you'd like us to take a closer look at, do email us. Our address is more or [e-mail] and you can sign up for a free download of our programmes at our website, bbcworldservice.com moreoreless there are dozens of different

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