Will we die before our parents?

Summary

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More or Less: "Will We Die Before Our Parents?"

Podcast: More or Less
Host: BBC Radio 4
Episode Date: July 5, 2014
Theme: Investigating claims and statistical truths about the health and longevity of today’s generation compared to their parents, with a bonus discussion on World Cup incentive structures.

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Episode Overview

This episode of More or Less, hosted by Ruth Alexander, tackles a widely-circulated claim: that today's children will live shorter lives than their parents, largely due to rising obesity rates. The show tests this assertion by examining global health and mortality statistics with guest experts, then shifts gears to discuss the effectiveness of financial incentives in World Cup football performances.

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1. Will This Generation Die Before Their Parents?

Key Claims and Context

• Widely-cited warnings suggest that due to rising childhood obesity, children today might have shorter lifespans than their parents.
• The main question: Is the claim substantiated by current mortality data?

Obesity and Mortality Trends

• Obesity rates are higher today than for previous generations.
• However, death rates from heart attacks and strokes (conditions associated with obesity) are falling steeply.

[01:11] Laura Gray (Lab Reporter):

"While it's true that the number of people who are obese and suffering from obesity related illnesses is higher for this generation than previous ones, death rates from heart attacks and strokes... are actually going down steeply..."

[01:33] Sir Richard Peto (Professor of Medical Statistics, Oxford):

"If you go back 30 years, then the chances that we die from heart attacks, stroke… in middle age was 16% at 1980 death rates and it's 4% at 2010 death rates. So the probability… has gone down by a factor of four."

Global Perspective

• The trend is not unique to Britain—countries worldwide, including the US and Mexico (the now 'fattest country in the world'), are seeing similar drops in early death rates.
• [02:15] Sir Richard Peto:

"The probability of dying before you're 70... in Mexico, it was a half [in 1970] and now it's a quarter."

Why Are Fewer People Dying?

• Better treatments for heart-related problems.
• Healthcare technology and preventative care have improved outcomes.

The “Obesity Paradox”

• [02:35] Laura Gray:
  • Some research finds that overweight people may live longer than those with normal weight (but not those who are obese).
  • The paradox may be due to overweight individuals receiving earlier diagnosis and more frequent medical attention.

[03:01] Laura Gray:

“Overweight people get better medical care, either because they show symptoms earlier or because they’re screened more regularly...”

Summing Up: Life Expectancy Trends

• If not in exceptional circumstances (e.g., war, HIV epidemic, extreme drinking), global death rates are declining rapidly.
• Improvements cited: vaccination, drugs, water, infection control, midwives, less smoking ([04:13] Laura Gray).

[03:41] Sir Richard Peto:

“The probability to die before 50 worldwide now is half what it was 40 years ago. Some countries, like Iran, it's gone from 36% down to 6%...”

[04:24] Ruth Alexander:

“So in most countries, from the USA to Iran, this generation is likely to live longer than the previous one. Great news. But will we live healthier, longer lives?”

• Quality of Life Issue:
  • While longevity increases, chronic conditions like diabetes may mean extra years are not necessarily healthy ones.
  • [04:35] Laura Gray:

    "Although you might get a few more years because of better healthcare, they won’t necessarily be golden ones. So stay away from the pies."

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2. Do Financial Incentives Improve World Cup Performance?

Transition to the World Cup Bonus

[05:08] Ruth Alexander:

“The World Cup? An event you’ve been calling ‘work’ for the last three weeks.”

The Economics of World Cup Bonuses

• Substantial prize money for players and coaches (e.g., $10 million for a win).

• Even teams that lose earn significant sums:

  • “Those countries… that don’t win a game and go home... receive $9.5 million.” ([06:06] Ben Carter)
  • "The overall winners will receive $36.5 million." ([06:13] Ben Carter)

• Bonuses are negotiated individually by teams, but high bonuses do not correlate with better results.

[06:59] Tom Coupe (Economist, Kiev School of Economics):

“I looked whether those countries that had high bonuses also had a better performance... I didn’t find that there was a clear correlation between the two... It’s not that if you promise your players a higher bonus that you will advance to the finals... That doesn’t seem to happen.”

Behavioral Economics Insight: Loss Aversion

• [07:53] Dan Ariely (Behavioral Economist, Duke University):

“There is a very important principle in behavioral economics called loss aversion. And loss aversion is the idea that people hate losing more than they enjoy gaining... if you punish people, it is more effective in the short run, but people hate it so much... they might leave their job.”

• Comparing positive incentives (bonuses) and negative incentives (penalties):
  • Negative incentives might motivate more, but have damaging long-term effects.

Values Over Money: The Greek Example

• Greek team refused bonuses, writing to their Prime Minister:
  • “We do not want an extra bonus or money. We only play for Greece and its people. And they added that they'd rather the money was spent on creating a new sports centre.” ([08:31] Ben Carter)

[08:53] Ruth Alexander:

“That is very noble of them. Well, professional footballers everywhere take note, I think.”

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Notable Quotes

• Sir Richard Peto [01:33]:
  “The probability of dying from heart attacks or strokes... has gone down by a factor of four.”
• Laura Gray [03:26]:
  “Fat or not, around the world, we’re likely to live longer than our parents.”
• Sir Richard Peto [03:41]:
  “If you’re not in the middle of a war, if you’re not in the middle of an HIV epidemic, if you’re not drinking gallons of vodka... death rates are going down, and they’re going down very fast.”
• Tom Coupe [06:59]:
  “It’s not that if you promise your players a higher bonus that you will advance to the finals... That doesn’t seem to happen.”
• Dan Ariely [07:53]:
  “If I gave you negative bonuses for bad performance, it would be very motivating. But you might also leave the job and find a job that doesn’t hurt you this much.”
• Greek Team [08:31]:
  “We do not want an extra bonus or money. We only play for Greece and its people...”

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• [00:58] – Opening claim: Today’s children may die younger due to obesity.
• [01:11] – Examining heart disease and obesity trends.
• [02:35] – The “obesity paradox” explained.
• [03:41] – Global death rates decreasing.
• [04:13] – Causes for improved longevity worldwide.
• [05:08] – Transition to World Cup and performance incentives.
• [06:13] – World Cup prize money breakdown.
• [06:59] – Investigation: Do bigger bonuses bring better results?
• [07:53] – Dan Ariely on loss aversion and incentive effectiveness.
• [08:31] – Greek team’s principled refusal of bonuses.

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Conclusion

• The big claim is debunked: Despite higher obesity rates, both in Britain and globally, people are living longer than ever—deaths from heart disease and related conditions have dramatically decreased thanks to better healthcare, prevention, and treatments.
• However, health is not just about longevity: More people may live longer, but rising obesity still threatens quality of life.
• Financial incentives in sports: High bonuses do not lead to improved World Cup results; intrinsic motivation, or even loss aversion, might be more powerful, but also risk negative side effects.

The episode delivers statistical clarity and subtle humor, combining hard numbers with light-hearted moments—a trademark of More or Less’s accessible, evidence-driven approach.

Transcript

[Ruth Alexander]

This is the short edition of More or Less, first broadcast on the BBC World Service.

[Ben Carter]

Thank you for downloading from the BBC. For details of our complete range of podcasts and our terms of use, go to bbcworldservice.com podcasts

[Ruth Alexander]

hello, this is More or Less the programme about numbers on the BBC World Service. I'm Ruth Alexander. On. This week's program has the promise of a bonus incentivised players to do better in the World Cup. But first,

[Ben Carter]

we, the adults of the last four generations, have blessed our children with the destiny of a shorter lifespan than their own parents. Because of the landscape of food that

[Sir Richard Peto]

we've built around them, the youngest generation is on track for the first time in this nation's history of being less healthy, having a shorter lifespan than their parents.

[Ruth Alexander]

The claim here is that this generation may die at an earlier age than their parents as a consequence of childhood obesity. Lab reporter Laura Gray's been looking into this. Laura, is it really true?

[Laura Gray]

While it's true that the number of people who are obese and suffering from obesity related illnesses is higher for this generation than previous ones, death rates from heart attacks and strokes, which are illnesses often associated with obesity, are actually going down steeply, as Sir Richard Peto, professor of medical statistics at the University of Oxford in England, explains.

[Sir Richard Peto]

If you take Britain as an example, sure, people are getting fatter here and that's a bad thing. But if you go back 30 years, then the chances that we die from heart attacks, stroke, you know, diseases like that in middle age was 16% at 1980 death rates and it's 4% at 2010 death rates. So the probability of dying from heart attacks or strokes, vascular disease, the sorts of things that get caused by being overweight, has gone down by a factor of four.

[Ruth Alexander]

Well, that's surprising, but he's talking there about Britain. Is the trend the same in other parts of the world?

[Laura Gray]

The trend is the same. Mexico is now the fattest country in the world and even there, people are less likely to die earlier.

[Sir Richard Peto]

The probability of dying before you're 70. If you go back to 1970 in Mexico, it was a half and now it's a quarter.

[Ruth Alexander]

Fascinating. So although obesity causes cardiovascular problems, fewer people are dying from these problems and people in general are living longer than they used to.

[Laura Gray]

And this is partly because the treatment for heart related problems is now so much better than in the past. Also, paradoxically, research in the Journal of the American Medical association suggests that being overweight may actually lead to a longer life, while obese people may die earlier. Than people of normal weight. Overweight people may live longer than people with a normal body weight, and this is called the obesity paradox.

[Ruth Alexander]

Well, how does that work?

[Laura Gray]

The authors of the report suggest it's possible that overweight people get better medical care, either because they show symptoms of disease earlier or because they're screened more regularly for chronic diseases stemming from their weight, such as diabetes or heart problems. And there's also some evidence that heavier people may be more likely to survive certain operations.

[Ruth Alexander]

So you should worry if you're obese, but worry less if you're a bit overweight?

[Laura Gray]

According to this research, yes.

[Ruth Alexander]

And taking weight out of the equation, is this generation today likely to die at a younger age than previous ones?

[Laura Gray]

Unlikely. Fat or not, around the world, we're likely to live longer than our parents. As Richard Peto explains, if you're not

[Sir Richard Peto]

in the middle of a war, if you're not in the middle of an HIV epidemic, if you're not drinking gallons of vodka, then overall death rates are going down, and they're going down very fast. The probability to die before 50 worldwide now is half what it was 40 years ago. Some countries, like Iran, it's gone from 36% down to 6%, much better than half. And some countries, like the Congo, for example, where there's just chronic war, it hasn't changed very much.

[Ruth Alexander]

And so what explains this overall, very significant drop in death rates?

[Laura Gray]

There isn't one explanation. Better vaccination programs and drugs, cleaner water, controlled infections, trained midwives and people stopping smoking are all contributing factors.

[Ruth Alexander]

So in most countries, from the USA to Iran, this generation is likely to live longer than the previous one. Great news. But will we live healthier, longer lives?

[Laura Gray]

Not necessarily. If you're obese, you run the risk of type 2 diabetes and high blood pressure, among other things, which diminish quality of life. So although you might get a few more years because of better healthcare, they won't necessarily be golden ones. So stay away from the pies.

[Ruth Alexander]

I can't promise everything in moderation, especially pies. Thanks, Laura. Oh, Ben, Carter's here. What's wrong, Ben?

[Ben Carter]

It's nearly over.

[Ruth Alexander]

What's nearly over?

[Tom Coupe / Dan Ariely]

The.

[Ben Carter]

The World Cup.

[Ruth Alexander]

The World Cup? An event you've been calling work for the last three weeks. Yes, but it's been a big success, hasn't it?

[Ben Carter]

For pretty much everyone, apart from the English and the Spanish, I would say. But one man who might be feeling even more depressed than me is a German USA coach, Jurgen Klinsmann. If figures in respected American newspapers are to be believed, Klinsmann would have received over $10 million and had his team gone on to win the tournament.

[Ruth Alexander]

Ah, I see. So you mean to say that these already incredibly well paid coaches and players are given extra financial incentives to succeed in this tournament? And there was me thinking that they were doing it all for the pride and glory.

[Ben Carter]

No, but to be fair, World football's governing body, FIFA, pay out some serious prize money to the football federations of those teams that make it to the World Cup.

[Ruth Alexander]

How serious?

[Ben Carter]

Even those countries that turn up don't win a game and go home.

[Ruth Alexander]

England.

[Ben Carter]

Yes, they receive $9.5 million. The overall winners will receive $36.5 million.

[Ruth Alexander]

That is very serious money. In which case, perhaps it doesn't seem so unreasonable that the players and staff take their cut. And is the size of that cut negotiated by the teams?

[Ben Carter]

Individually it is, but the incentive of large bonuses hasn't been particularly successful. It was rumoured that the Spanish players could expect to get a million dollars a man if they won the World cup, which raised some eyebrows amongst Spanish MPs who asked legitimately why their bonus was double the size of the Germans, considering the strength of the relative economies.

[Ruth Alexander]

So do better bonuses lead to better performances or not?

[Ben Carter]

Well, we put that question to an expert. Tom Coupe is a senior economist at the Kiev School of Economics in Ukraine. He's been looking at world bonuses since the 2006 competition.

[Tom Coupe / Dan Ariely]

I looked whether those countries that had high bonuses also had a better performance or not, and I didn't find that there was a clear correlation between the two. The country that in 2006 offered the highest bonus was Ukraine, and then it was kind of offering like €800,000 for a win, which was higher than Spain at that point. And then countries like South Korea, Switzerland and Serbia were all promised more than Germany. So it's not that if you promise your players a higher bonus that you will advance to the finals or something like that. That doesn't seem to happen.

[Ruth Alexander]

Some teams will be offered big bonuses, but with the greatest of respect to the Ukraine in 2006 and the USA this year, their respective football associations were highly unlikely to have made good on their promises.

[Ben Carter]

Well, that's true, but perhaps Ruth football federations are looking at it in the wrong way. Here's Dan Ariely, a behavioural economist at Duke University in the United States.

[Tom Coupe / Dan Ariely]

There is a very important principle in behavioral economics called loss aversion. And loss aversion is the idea that people hate losing more than they enjoy gaining. But it turns out that if you punish people. It is more effective in the short run, but people hate it so much that then they might leave their job. So if I gave you a negative bonuses for bad performance it would be very motivating. But you might also leave them job in total and find a job that doesn't hurt you this much.

[Ben Carter]

So perhaps economic sanctions for players rather than bonuses is the way to go.

[Ruth Alexander]

If you're not worried about driving them away in the long term though, that's true.

[Ben Carter]

But perhaps teams should follow the Greek squad's lead and refuse to accept bonuses altogether. In a signed letter to the Greek Prime Minister prior to their second round loss to Costa Rica, they wrote we we do not want an extra bonus or money. We only play for Greece and its people. And they added that they'd rather the money was spent on creating a new sports centre.

[Ruth Alexander]

That is very noble of them. Well, professional footballers everywhere take note, I think. Ben, thanks very much. Well, that's it for this week and if you want us to check out some numbers for you, you can email us at more or lessbc co.uk and if you want to find out more about the program or download it for free, you can go to bbcworldservice.

[Ben Carter]

There are dozens of different podcasts now available from the BBC, including news, documentaries, science, business, arts and sports. For details of them all go to bbcworldservice.com podcasts.