WS MoreOrLess: Could statistics cure cancer?

Summary

Podcast Summary: More or Less – "Could statistics cure cancer?"

BBC Radio 4, November 23, 2013

Host: Ruth Alexander
Guest: Professor Terry Speed, Head of Bioinformatics, Walter and Eliza Hall Institute of Medical Research

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Episode Overview

This episode of More or Less explores the pivotal role of statistics in understanding and treating cancer. Ruth Alexander interviews Professor Terry Speed, an acclaimed statistician honored with Australia’s Prime Minister’s Prize for Science for his contributions to cancer research. The conversation centers on how statistical analysis of biological and genetic data is transforming cancer diagnosis, treatment, and the advent of personalized medicine.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Complexity of Biological Data

• Cells as Factories ([00:19])
  • Introduction to the human body as a system of cellular “factories” with molecular machinery that occasionally malfunctions, leading to disease.
  • The challenge: Making sense of massive, complex data from cells—far beyond simple tables of numbers.
• Types of Data in Medicine ([01:33])
  • Prof. Speed notes: “DNA, your genome, this is not a table of numbers, this is an enormous string of letters. But in a sense, it's still data, and there's information in that data about your genes, about your ancestry, about your state of health, even.”
    — Terry Speed [01:33]

2. Role of Statisticians in Cancer Research

• From Data to Answers ([01:53])
  • Statisticians, especially Speed, create analysis tools to interpret genetic data, enabling scientists to discern differences between healthy and cancerous cells.
• Statisticians: The Key to the Cure? ([01:53])
  • The question: Could statisticians find the cure for cancer?
  • Prof. Speed’s response is cautious:

    “I always get a little cautious when the word cure comes in. Let's think more in terms of treatment...there's not going to be one weak spot that you just hit and then you've wiped out all cancers. But...we can treat [some cancers] in particular ways and certainly keep people alive a lot longer.” — Terry Speed [02:27]

3. Personalized Medicine and Its Impact

• Personalized Treatment ([03:12], [03:21], [04:45])
  • Cancer is diverse, and so are patients’ genetic backgrounds.
  • Statistical analysis allows precise tailoring of treatments, reducing unnecessary and harsh interventions:

    “Now if we can study those cells, prevent that unnecessary surgery, this is a great advance. It's not curing cancer, but it's making a real contribution.” — Terry Speed [03:21]

  • Example: In breast cancer, molecular assays now guide whether patients require aggressive chemotherapy or milder maintenance treatments.
  • Similar progress in differentiating benign from malignant thyroid growths, sparing patients unnecessary surgeries.
• Personalized Medicine Defined ([04:45])

  “The buzz term is personalized medicine, because we're seeing more and more diversity in tumours…we can tailor the therapy, the treatment, the drug.” — Terry Speed [04:45]

4. The Evolution of the Statistician’s Role in Medicine

• Advent of ‘Omics’ Data ([05:24])
  • With new technology came the ability to read thousands of genes at once; Speed helped pioneer methods to analyze this data—now standard in research labs globally.
• A Personal Journey ([05:51])

  “When I started at university, I wanted to do a medical degree and…I switched to mathematics. At the time I had no idea that the mathematics and the medical stuff would come together as they did 30 years ago.” — Terry Speed [05:51]

5. Future Frontiers: Neurobiology and Consciousness

• Advice for New Statisticians ([07:03])
  • Speed identifies brain science as a burgeoning field for statistics, likening current understanding to “just scratching the surface” and predicting a convergence of data and medicine in the study of consciousness and mental illness.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the limits of a “cure”:

  “Let's think more in terms of treatment...what we are learning is that some particular cancers we can treat in particular ways and certainly keep people alive a lot longer.”
  — Terry Speed [02:27]

• On the shift to individualized medicine:

  “We're learning more and more about the idiosyncrasies of tumours and in particular, how they relate to individuals, because people's own genetic background contributes as well.”
  — Terry Speed [04:45]

• On career serendipity:

  “I was just lucky to have the right background when the technology emerged to create these new possibilities...”
  — Terry Speed [06:31]

• On future statistical opportunities:

  “If I had another lifetime, I think I would dive into neurobiology…mental disease, of course, psychiatric disease is incredibly important in our society. And we're really only scratching the surface of understanding causes of schizophrenia or bipolar disorder.”
  — Terry Speed [07:03]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

| Timestamp | Segment | |-----------|----------------------------------------------| | 00:19 | Introduction to cancer as a statistical problem | | 01:33 | Nature of biological data and the genome | | 02:27 | Challenges of finding a “cure” vs. improvement in treatment | | 03:21 | Personalized medicine in breast and thyroid cancer | | 04:45 | Definition and importance of personalized medicine | | 05:24 | Terry Speed’s pioneering statistical techniques | | 05:51 | Speed’s personal and professional journey | | 07:03 | Future opportunities: statistics and brain science |

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Tone & Language

The conversation is thoughtful and accessible, combining scientific rigor with anecdotal insights and optimism about the evolving intersection of statistics and medicine.

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For Further Listening

The episode closes with a teaser for a future segment exploring the science of the brain and consciousness from a statistician’s perspective.

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Note: This summary focuses solely on the central interview and topical content, omitting promotional segments and off-topic discussions.

Transcript

[A]

This is the short edition of More or Less, first broadcast on the BBC World Service.

[B]

Thank you for downloading from the BBC. For details of our complete range of podcasts and our terms of use, go to bbcworldservice.com podcasts

[A]

hello, and welcome to More or Less on the BBC World Service. I'm Ruth Alexander. Think of cells in the human body as factories. Think of the molecules inside the cells as machines. Sometimes that machinery goes haywire. Scientists need to know how that happens and why, if they're to have any chance against one of the world's biggest killers cancer. Some of the best minds in medical research are focused on understanding and ultimately eliminating the disease. And they know more now than they ever did. New technologies mean a lot of information. Data can be extracted from cells that are not behaving normally. But huge volumes of data is just that. To find the answers to the how and why questions is it needs to be sorted, analysed, interpreted. And for this, the cancer doctors, chemists and biologists turn to statisticians, and one statistician in particular, Professor Terry Speed.

[B]

There's just so many forms of data. We think data is just a table of numbers, but DNA, your genome, this is not a table of numbers, this is an enormous string of letters. But in a sense, it's still data and there's information in that data about your genes, about your ancestry, about your state of health, even.

[A]

Terry Speed's been awarded Australia's Prime Minister's Prize for Science for his important contribution to cancer research. He's developed mathematical and statistical tools to make sense of all this vital information that can be taken out of your body to enable scientists to begin to try to answer the big questions. The patterns in the data he detects can then be analysed. How a healthy cell differs from a tumour cell can be seen. So could it be statisticians, in the end, who find the cure for cancer?

[B]

Well, I always get a little cautious when the word cure comes in. Let's think more in terms of treatment, in terms of focusing what we're doing. What's happening as time goes on, is that we're understanding that cancer is more and more diverse and, and that there's not going to be sort of one weak spot that you just hit and then you've wiped out all cancers. But what we are learning is that some particular cancers we can treat in particular ways and certainly keep people alive a lot longer. So in some sense, it's not so much cure at the moment as just giving you an extended lifetime, because of course, as people get older, there's more and more cancer, because it's predominantly a disease of age. As the cells age and things go

[A]

wrong, extracting and understanding the information we carry in our bodies means we can be treated for what we are, individuals.

[B]

So for example, a woman who has a tumour in her breast, there might have been four or five years ago, or even more recently, one standard treatment after a little bit of examination, but now if we do a molecular assay, we can see, well, this woman, she doesn't need severe chemotherapy right now, just some sort of maintenance drug treatment. And then maybe in six months time we have another look. But to tell that she didn't need it, of course, some people need it immediately and they have to get it. So making these fine distinctions, or an example that I like to mention, when a woman has a growth in their thyroid, quite a large number of those growths, you can't tell whether it's benign or, or malignant just by looking at it. But if you look at the cells, you can see there's a signature that says benign or malignant. And by doing that, you stop the surgery. Because previously, if you couldn't tell, they said, okay, out with the thyroid. And then this poor woman has not only been subjected to surgery, she is on hormone therapy the rest of her life because she's lost her thyroid. Now, if we can study those cells, prevent that unnecessary surgery, this is a great advance. It's not curing cancer, but it's making a real contribution.

[A]

So we're talking about a future where a patient comes to a doctor and has their own data, then analysed by a statistician?

[B]

Absolutely, yes. I mean, the buzz term is personalised medicine, because we're seeing more and more diversity in tumours, so that you need to know exactly what sort of a tumour that person has. And, and then as we learn more and more, we can tailor the therapy, the treatment, the drug. So it's not like we do a big trial and you give half of the people this drug and half the other drug, because you know that there's incredible diversity within those halves. So we're learning more and more about the idiosyncrasies of tumours and in particular, how they relate to individuals, because people's own genetic background contributes as well.

[A]

Professor Speeds also made his name developing ways to sift and analyze huge volumes of genetic data when technological developments meant that the activity levels of thousands of genes could be assessed simultaneously. Terry Speed was one of the first to get his Hands on the data. His analysis techniques are still used in labs all around the world. Did he think a career in statistics would ever turn out to be this interesting?

[B]

No, I didn't, actually. When I started at university, I wanted to do a medical degree and I didn't find that to my liking. Things like dissection and chemistry experiments and so on. So I switched to mathematics. And at the time I had no idea that the mathematics and the medical stuff would come together as they did 30 years ago. So in some sense, after the discovery of the structure of DNA and a lot of technological advancements, then people started generating molecular data. And around about that time, it became obvious to me that the skills I had from being a general statistician would enable me to be useful back in the area of medicine that I thought I'd left 30 years earlier.

[A]

Modestly, Terry Speed says he was just in the right place at the right time. Anyone could have done what he's done. He was just lucky, he says, to have the right background when the technology emerged to create these new possibilities of data discovery. So if the pioneering use of new genetic and molecular technology provided the right time, right place, opportunity for Speed and for cancer research, in what other area of dawning possibilities could a young statistician today hope to make their mark?

[B]

I've always thought, and I've said quite a few times, understanding the brain, understanding consciousness. Of course there are many brilliant people doing it right now, but in some sense we're at the beginning. We're just starting to get a lot of data now on imaging data on brains. And if I had another lifetime, I think I would dive into neurobiology, things to do with brains and nerves. Because mental disease, of course, psychiatric disease is incredibly important in our society. And we're really only scratching the surface of understanding causes of schizophrenia or bipolar disorder. And it's got to be a combination. The story's got to be there in the data in the brain.

[A]

Professor Terry Speed, head of Bioinformatics at the Walter and Eliza Hall Institute of Medical Research in Australia and winner of the Prime Minister's Prize for Science. And we hope to take a statistician's eye view of how the brain works in a future program inspired not just by Terry Speed's enthusiasm, but also by a question from one of our listeners. Edwards emailed us to ask us to look into the commonly uttered claim that we use only a small percentage of our brains. But just before we go, Ben Carter's here. Ben, last week you said that the great Indian cricketer Sachin Tendulkar was only the world's 29th best cricketer. How did that go?

[B]

Well, I received some interesting messages on Twitter. Salil tweeted, the guy who guides you in calculating your dog's age also gives the verdict on more than 100 years of cricket. Vamsey was a little bit harsher, telling me that I'd succeeded in getting a little attention and and that I could now get back to my pathetic life.

[A]

How did he know you have a pathetic life?

[B]

I don't know, but other people were more positive. Imran commented, I think Tendulkar was good but didn't deserve the God status given to him by the Indian people.

[A]

All right, thanks Ben. If there are any numerical claims or goings on that you'd like us to investigate or explain, do please email us. Our address is more or [e-mail]. you can also sign up for a free download of this program at our website bbcworldservice.com More or less

[B]

There are dozens of different podcasts now available from the BBC, including news, documentaries, science, business, arts and sports. The details of them all go to bbcworldservice.com podcasts.