WS MoreOrLess: Death Penalty

Summary

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More or Less – Death Penalty (May 23, 2015)

Main Theme

In this episode, host Tim Harford and expert guests critically examine the statistics surrounding the death penalty, particularly the accuracy of a striking claim about wrongful convictions in the U.S. They delve into execution rates, state variation, international trends, and the global reliability of death penalty outcomes.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Investigating the Claim: "1 in 9 Executed, 1 Innocent Exonerated"

• Listener Question: James Middleton queries the accuracy of a claim made by lawyer Bryan Stevenson, heard on BBC Radio 4's Desert Island Discs:
  • “For every nine people that we have executed in America, we've identified one innocent person on death row.” ([00:44] Bryan Stevenson, quoted)
• Fact-Checking the Statistic:
  • Frank R. Baumgartner (Professor of Political Science, UNC Chapel Hill) confirms the statistic:
    • "Since 1976, there've been 152 people exonerated...and about 1,400 executions...Bryan Stevenson has the numbers exactly right. It is shocking." ([01:14]–[01:39])
  • The ratio: Roughly 1 exoneration per 9 executions in the modern era of the death penalty in the U.S.

2. Exoneration and Overturning Convictions

• Why So Many Convictions Are Overturned
  • At the core are “very heinous crimes,” leading to high emotional stakes and strong pressure for convictions.
  • Prosecutors are often very determined to secure death sentences, and jurors tend to trust that request. ([01:47]–[02:22])
  • Approximately 75% of fully reviewed death penalty cases are overturned by appellate courts.

3. Likelihood of Execution After a Death Sentence

• Execution Rate

  • Only 13% of those sentenced to death since 1976 have actually been executed. ([02:38]–[02:40])
  • The majority of death sentences are either overturned or remain pending while the person stays on death row.

• State-by-State Variation

  • Virginia: The only state where more than 50% of those sentenced to death are executed (approx. 75%).
    • “They're very strict about limiting appeals to 12 months.” ([03:00])
  • California: Over 1,000 death sentences, but only 13 executions—a less than 1% execution rate ([03:26]).
    • California's system was recently ruled unconstitutional as it functions as “life without parole with remote possibility of death.” ([03:32])

4. Delays on Death Row

• Both defense and prosecution are rarely eager to hasten executions; defense tactics naturally delay, while states have little incentive to expedite the process since inmates are already contained. ([04:21])

5. Statistical Overview (U.S. Since 1976)

• Over 8,000 sentenced to death.
  • 1,400+ executed.
  • 3,000+ sentences overturned.
  • Around 3,000 remain on death row.
  • Some inmates die of natural causes before the outcome is determined. ([05:02])

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6. The Global Landscape

Abolition Trends

• Professor Carolyn Hoyle (Director, Centre for Criminology, University of Oxford):

  • In 1998, 35 countries had abolished the death penalty. As of the episode:
    • 107 countries have abolished it.
    • 52 more are “abolitionist de facto” (haven’t executed anyone in 10+ years). ([06:06])
  • Only 39 countries executed anyone in the most recent decade.

• International Use

  • The death penalty is now rare globally. In the late 1990s, the U.S. sentenced over 250 people per year to death; now well below 100 a year. ([06:36])
  • Countries using the death penalty most actively are in Africa, the Middle East, and Asia.

International Law and Data Issues

• The death penalty is permitted under international law, but the U.N. dictates strict application guidelines.
  • Outside the U.S., there’s limited reliable data about wrongful convictions and exonerations.
  • Cases of innocent individuals being executed or exonerated after wrongful conviction have emerged in countries like China (notably, a man returned alive after being presumed murdered and another executed for that crime). ([07:18])
  • Many countries (e.g., Afghanistan, Iran, Belarus) have been documented using torture and have poor records for the presumption of innocence.

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Memorable Quotes & Moments

• Frank R. Baumgartner:

  • "Bryan Stevenson has the numbers exactly right. It is shocking." ([01:38])
  • "13% of people since 1976 who have been sentenced to death, 13% of them have been executed..." ([02:40])
  • "It's a death penalty in name only." ([04:06])

• Carolyn Hoyle:

  • "Today, 107 countries have abolished the death penalty and another 52 countries are what we call abolitionist de facto." ([06:06])
  • (On global exoneration rates): “If the rate of exonerations is as high as it is in America, if it was possible to collect accurate data from the other countries, they would be much higher, it would be my guess.” ([08:39])

• Bryan Stevenson (quoted):

  • "For every nine people that we have executed in America, we've identified one innocent person on death row." ([00:51]; repeated at [08:32]).

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Notable Timestamps

| Time | Segment | |---------|------------------------------------------------------------------| | 00:44 | Listener introduces the "1 in 9" claim | | 01:05 | Baumgartner starts US-specific analysis | | 02:38 | 13% execution rate for death sentences | | 03:00 | Virginia and California state contrasts | | 04:06 | "Death penalty in name only" | | 05:02 | Harford summarizes US death row statistics | | 06:06 | Carolyn Hoyle on global abolition trends | | 07:18 | Global data unreliability and wrongful convictions abroad | | 08:32 | Reiteration of the "1 in 9" statistic and Hoyle's commentary |

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Tone and Delivery

• The episode maintains an analytical and evidence-driven tone.
• Both host and guests express measured shock at the number of wrongful convictions and the disparity between legal intentions and actual outcomes.
• The language is clear, accessible, and rooted in statistical rigor.

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Summary

This episode of More or Less offers a probing statistical look at the death penalty in the U.S. and worldwide. Starting with a listener's shock at the "1 in 9" wrongful conviction ratio in U.S. capital cases, expert guests confirm and contextualize the statistic, revealing a surprisingly low likelihood of actual execution and high rates of overturn and exoneration. Internationally, abolition is rapidly increasing, and global data suggest even graver concerns about the safety and fairness of death penalty convictions in many countries. The episode leaves listeners with a sense of both statistical rigor and the profound moral and policy complexities at the heart of the death penalty debate.

Transcript

[Narrator]

This is the short edition of More or Less, first broadcast on the BBC World Service.

[BBC Announcer]

Thank you for downloading from the BBC. For details of our complete range of podcasts and our terms of use, go to bbcworldservice.com podcasts

[Tim Harford]

hello and welcome to More or Less. We're your weekly guide to the numbers all around us. And I'm Tim Harford. Our email address is more or [e-mail], and that is how loyal listener James Middleton reached us with this question about a claim made on the BBC Radio 4 programme Desert Island Discs.

[James Middleton (Listener)]

Dear More or Less In a recent Desert Island Discs episode with the lawyer Bryan Stevenson, he claimed that for every

[Bryan Stevenson (Lawyer, quoted)]

nine people that we have executed in America, we've identified one innocent person on death row.

[James Middleton (Listener)]

Having never really questioned the use of the death penalty in the states, this statistic has really shocked me into reconsidering my views. Is this figure accurate?

[Frank R. Baumgartner]

Absolutely.

[Tim Harford]

This is Frank R. Baumgartner. He's professor of Political Science at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. In the United States, in our country,

[Frank R. Baumgartner]

in the modern period, from 1976, when the death penalty was reinstated by the Supreme Court. So since then there's been 152 people exonerated, completely let go, walked out of prison free men and women, and then in that same time, we've had about 1400 executions. So Bryan Stevenson has the numbers exactly right. It is shocking.

[Interviewer]

Do we have a sense of why there are so many convictions that end up being completely overturned and these men being exonerated?

[Frank R. Baumgartner]

I think the reason is that always at the core of a death penalty penalty case, there is a very heinous crime. And so I think the emotions are very high. Prosecutors are very anxious to get death. I think jurors think that the prosecutor wouldn't ask for it if they weren't certain about the guilt of the individual. And the emotions are so high that on review, a majority of these cases are overturned. I think it's about 75% of cases where all the reviews are complete that have been overturned by subsequent appellate courts.

[Interviewer]

So that's not necessarily that the suspect was exonerated completely, but the death penalty itself was ruled to be inappropriate. If you are sentenced to death, how likely is it that you will eventually end up being executed?

[Frank R. Baumgartner]

13%.

[Interviewer]

13%.

[Frank R. Baumgartner]

1 3% of people since 1976 who have been sentenced to death, 13% of them have been executed. The majority have had their sentence overturned or remain on death row.

[Interviewer]

How does that vary from state to state?

[Frank R. Baumgartner]

There's only one state that has executed more than 50% of the people that they have sentenced to death, and that is Virginia, where the number is about 75%. They're very strict about limiting appeals to to 12 months. There's many states where it's extremely rare. California has only executed 13 people, but they have sentenced to death, I believe over a thousand.

[Interviewer]

So only about a 1% chance that you will actually be executed having been sentenced to death in California.

[Frank R. Baumgartner]

That's right. And just recently in California, a judge ruled that California's death penalty system was unconstitutional because it consisted of a penalty of life without parole with the remote possibility of death. And he said that that is unconstitutional because of the torture.

[Interviewer]

It does seem strange that this sentence is called a death penalty, but in fact, death is not by any means the most likely outcome.

[Frank R. Baumgartner]

But you're absolutely right. It's a death penalty in name only.

[Interviewer]

And why does it take so long for so many states to. I can understand why you would want to check and check and check again, but years, decades, it seems odd from

[Frank R. Baumgartner]

the inmates attorneys, they will never do anything to speed up the process. So if there's an opportunity to wait another day without filing a motion, any death attorney will wait that other day. Because every day that they wait and is a day that their client has not been executed and a day that the United States Supreme Court might come closer to invalidating the entire death penalty. On the other side, on the prosecutor's side and the state side, once the person's on death row, there are very little danger to anybody else. And so they're not necessarily anxious to move the process as quickly as possible.

[Tim Harford]

To sum up, of the more than 8000 people sentenced to death in the United States since 1976, over 1400 have been executed. But over 3000 have had the death penalty overturned and around 3000 remain on death row while their fate continues to be argued over. Some people, of course, have died on death row of natural causes. That was Professor Frank R. Baumgartner. And thank you to James Middleton for his question. If that's the situation in the United States, what about the use of the death penalty around the world? Whatever your views are about whether capital punishment is an acceptable sentence for a crime, it's clear that there's a worldwide trend emerging. Here's Professor Carolyn Hoyle, director of the Centre for Criminology at the University of Oxford. She says that there has been a sharp fall in the use of the death penalty around the world. Either legally abolishing it or pragmatically letting it fall into disuse. This trend is surprisingly big and surprisingly recent.

[Carolyn Hoyle]

If you look back to 1998, for example, only 35 countries had abolished the death penalty. Today, 107 countries have abolished the death penalty and another 52 countries are what we call abolitionist. De facto, that means they haven't executed anyone in the last 10 years. So they retain the death penalty on the books, but they're not actively using it. So as of last year, only 39 countries executed anyone in the past 10 years.

[Tim Harford]

In the United States, the death penalty is also much rarer than it used to be. In the late 1990s, over 250 people a year were being sentenced to death, but the figure is now well below 100 a year. Internationally, as we've heard, fewer than a quarter of the countries around the world have used the death penalty in the last 10 years. These countries are mainly found in parts of Africa, the Middle east, and Asia. The death penalty is legal under international law. However, the United nations does stipulate how it should be applied. We've seen that the United States hasn't always been able to secure the correct verdict for capital crimes. So what percentage of convictions internationally are unsafe?

[Carolyn Hoyle]

We don't have the types of reliable statistics that they have in the U.S. so what we know from other jurisdictions is that there are cases where people have been found to be innocent either after they have been executed or in some cases before and are therefore exonerated. China has had a series of cases where evidence has come to light that somebody who has either been executed or is on death row was not guilty of the offense. A very high profile case a few years ago of a man who was convicted of killing his neighbor in his village. And in fact, what had happened is the neighbor had just left the village because he owed money to somebody and he wandered back 10 years later and alive and well. So that was a case where not only was he not guilty of that crime, but there hadn't actually been a crime. We found evidence of breaches of the principle of the presumption of innocence. Countries like Afghanistan, Belarus, Iran, forced confessions through torture in countries such as Afghanistan, Algeria, Belarus, Iran, Iraq, Palestinian Authority.

[Tim Harford]

And if we remind ourselves, courtesy of the American lawyer Bryan Stevenson, of what a comparatively rigorous and thorough system produces,

[Bryan Stevenson (Lawyer, quoted)]

for every nine people that we have executed in America, we've identified one innocent person on death row.

[Carolyn Hoyle]

If the rate of exonerations is as high as it is in America, if it was possible to collect accurate data from the other countries, they would be much higher, it would be my guess.

[Tim Harford]

Professor Carolyn Hoyle, Director at the Centre for Criminology at the University of Oxford in the United Kingdom. That is all we have time for this week. Please keep your comments and your questions coming in to more or lessbc.co.uk. our website is BBC.com moreorless until next week. Goodbye.

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