WS MoreOrLess: Global Wealth

Summary

More or Less – “Global Wealth / Best and Worst Board Games”

Host: Tim Harford (BBC Radio 4)
Guest: Oliver Roeder (Senior Writer, FiveThirtyEight)
Date: January 26, 2015

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Episode Overview

This episode of More or Less explores two main topics:

1. Global Wealth Statistics: Interrogating Oxfam's headline claim that the richest 1% of the global population will soon own more than the rest of the world combined, examining its validity, and explaining how the wealthy 1% is composed.
2. Board Game Rankings: Turning from economics to leisure, the episode investigates the best and worst board games, using data from BoardGameGeek—an online hub for board game enthusiasts.

Tim Harford brings his characteristic mix of wit and skepticism to the numbers, while guest Oliver Roeder provides insight into the board game ratings world.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Oxfam and the Global 1%

• Debunking Wealth Statistics:

  • Oxfam's claim: “Soon the richest 1% of the world’s population will own more than everyone else put together.”
  • Different (and sometimes misleading) versions of this claim circulate widely in media and debate.
  • Quote – Tim Harford (01:11): “I wouldn’t say right because the statistics on these questions are very hard to get and very hard to compare. But I would say defensible. And this latest statistic... falls into the defensible bracket.”

• Who’s in the 1%?

  • The 1% comprises about 47 million adults worldwide.
  • To be in this group, you need assets of at least $800,000.
  • National breakdowns (based on Credit Suisse data):
    • UK: 2.9 million
    • China: 1.6 million
    • Germany: 2.6 million
    • France: 3.5 million
    • USA: 18 million
  • Quote – Tim Harford (01:13): “There are 2.9 million of them in the UK alone. That’s... almost twice as many as in China... more than in Germany... and fewer than in France.”

2. The Best and Worst Board Games

Kids’ Opinions (02:34)

• Tim’s children declare their favorite board games: Cube Quest (“flicking dice game”), Mice and Mystics (“cooperative game”), and King of Tokyo (“I am not merciful... I can deal lots of damage and kill all the other monsters”).

Statistical Analysis: Oliver Roeder’s Findings

• Data Source: BoardGameGeek.com, where serious gamers rate games on a scale of 1–10.
  • Quote – Oliver Roeder (05:32): “My data comes from a website called BoardGameGeek.com... the serious board gamers.”

The “Hall of Shame”: Worst Board Games (06:07)

• Six games identified with large numbers of reviews and low average ratings (2-4 out of 10):

  • Snakes and Ladders
  • Tic Tac Toe
  • Candy Land
  • The card game War
  • The Game of Life
  • Monopoly

• Why do they score poorly?

  • Overreliance on luck, lack of player engagement, possibility for players to be eliminated before the end (as with Monopoly).
  • Quote – Oliver Roeder (04:27): “Monopoly often has a runaway winner, but the game takes another four hours... Another thing about Monopoly is players can be eliminated. In sort of good games, it’s good to keep players sort of engaged for the whole game.”

Why Is Monopoly So Common? (08:22)

• Despite being unpopular with enthusiasts, Monopoly is found in almost every home—due to “quirks of history, a quirk of commerce.”

The Best Board Games

• Top-rated game: Twilight Struggle (two-player Cold War simulation).
• Standout features of great games:
  • Skill/luck balanced
  • Players always feel involved with a chance to win
  • No early elimination
  • Quote – Oliver Roeder (07:01): “These games that are rated very highly are anti-monopolies... they don’t suffer from the problems with Monopoly... you always have a chance to catch up.”

Oliver Roeder’s Favorite Game (08:46)

• Scrabble (“My favourite game is Scrabble”)
• Tim’s comical response: “Oh, that's a terrible game. We stopped the tape there because nobody wants to hear me burst a blood vessel.” (08:50)

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Memorable Quotes & Moments

• Tim Harford satirical intro: “We’re the programme which is to numeracy what the coffee bean is to cafe culture...” (00:19)
• On the defense of statistics: “Some of them are misleading, some of them are utterly wrong... but I would say defensible.” – Tim Harford (01:09–01:11)
• On the logic of bad games: “Snakes and Adders is a game of pure luck. Monopoly is deeply flawed.” – Producer/Interviewer (05:14)
• Trust issues in remote board games: “Yeah, this is requiring a lot of trust between us, I should mention.” – Oliver Roeder (05:11)
• On BoardGameGeek: “Sort of TripAdvisor for board games.” – Producer/Interviewer (05:41)
• Knockout line: “People who hate board games presumably hate Monopoly, and people who love board games hate Monopoly.” – Producer/Interviewer (07:58)
• Roeder on Monopoly’s ubiquity: “We all have Monopoly in our closets at home. Even though these games aren’t the greatest games, we start with these games and we can move on to better ones.” (08:22)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:19 – Tim Harford introduces the show and the Oxfam 1% claim.
• 01:09–01:13 – Examining and contextualizing the statistic; breakdown of the 1%.
• 02:34 – Tim’s children share favorite board games.
• 03:12–03:56 – Introduction to board game analysis; transition to interview with Oliver Roeder.
• 04:07–05:03 – Roeder and the team play Snakes and Ladders live; criticisms of Monopoly.
• 05:32–06:07 – Statistical basis for judgments; “Hall of Shame” games described.
• 07:01 – Twilight Struggle and characteristics of top-rated games.
• 08:22 – Why Monopoly remains a staple in households.
• 08:46–08:50 – Roeder picks Scrabble; Tim reacts.

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Summary

More or Less expertly balances a sharp look at media-promoted statistics with a playful, data-driven dive into the world of board games. The episode is a testament to statistical thinking—whether parsing global inequality headlines or weighing why some games endure in living rooms despite leaving enthusiasts cold. The discussion is lively, data-rich, and full of the program’s trademark humor and skepticism.

Transcript

[Tim Harford]

This is the short edition of More or Less first broadcast on the BBC World Service.

[BBC Announcer]

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[Tim Harford]

hello and welcome to More or Less on the BBC World Service. We're the programme which is to numeracy what the coffee bean is to cafe culture and and I'm Tim Harford. In today's programme, which are the world's best and worst board games. But first, the More or Less Inbox has been pinging away about Oxfam's claim that soon the richest 1% of the world's population will own more than everyone else put together. The interesting thing about this debate is that all claims of the form the richest x percent of the planet own more than the poorest Y percent seem to have blurred into one. They all sound the same as they whiz by on the airwaves or social media. They're believed by the same people and

[Producer/Interviewer]

they're disbelieved by the same people.

[Tim Harford]

But they're not the same. Of course, some of them are misleading,

[Producer/Interviewer]

some of them are utterly wrong and

[Tim Harford]

some of them are. Well, I wouldn't say right because the statistics on these questions are very hard to get and very hard to compare. But I would say defensible. And this latest statistic that the richest 1% will soon collectively own as much as everyone else falls into the defensible bracket. But we wanted to turn to a slightly different who's in this mysterious 1%? The people who collectively own almost half the assets on the planet. There are 2.9 million of them in the UK alone. That's according to Credit Suisse, which is after all, the original source of the research that has fueled Oxfam's headline grabbing claims. The UK's 2.9 million is almost twice as many as in China which has 1.6 million. It's more than in Germany which has 2.6 million and fewer than in France which has 3.5 million. As a rough rule of thumb, any medium sized rich country has at least a million people in the 1%. The USA has 18 million and there are 47 million 1 percenters across the world. 1% of the world's adult population, naturally enough, the to get into the top 1% you need $800,000. Now which are the world's best board games?

[Tim Harford's Child]

You quest because it's a freaking nice game. My favourite game is Mice and Mystics because it has lots of different versions that you can play. You can make boards that will work so you can play with them. And it's a cooperative game. King of Tokyo, because I am not merciful and so I can deal lots of damage and kill all the other monsters. And you get to say, do you concede Tokyo?

[Tim Harford]

In case you were wondering, Cube Quest is a flicking dice game. Now, these are good choices in my view, but we didn't want to take my children's word for it. Despite my efforts as a board game geek, they've only sampled a fraction of the games that are in existence. Oliver Rader, a senior writer for the numbers website538, has done a statistical analysis to find out the very best and the very worst games known to humanity. I must say, things aren't looking good for Snakes and Ladders. I invited Oliver into the BBC's New York studio and challenged him from London to a game of snakes and ladders. A gentleman player, I let him roll first.

[Oliver Rader]

All right, here we go. I've gotten a seven.

[Producer/Interviewer]

Okay, let me, let me have a roll. I've got a four. Ah, a ladder. That's the luck of it.

[Oliver Rader]

I don't know if this surprises you, but Snakes and Ladders is actually one of the worst board games ever made. That's what I found.

[Producer/Interviewer]

What about something like Monopoly? Is that a good game?

[Oliver Rader]

Monopoly is actually a bet noir of board gamers. It's the game they love to hate.

[Producer/Interviewer]

Why would a great board game fan sneer at Monopoly then? What's wrong with it?

[Oliver Rader]

Well, Monopoly has a few characteristics that any board game designer worth his salt tries really, really hard to avoid. One is Monopoly often has a runaway winner, but the game takes another four hours. Another thing about Monopoly is players can be eliminated so you can go bankrupt. In sort of good games, it's good to keep players sort of engaged for the whole game.

[Producer/Interviewer]

I should ask you to roll again and remind you I'm on 14, you're on 7.

[Oliver Rader]

Alright, here we go. I've gotten a 5.

[Producer/Interviewer]

Gets you nowhere in particular. Let me have a go. Okay, I've got a seven, so that takes me up to 21.

[Tim Harford]

Hey, hey.

[Producer/Interviewer]

Another ladder. I'm up to 42, you're on 12. Yeah, great game. I think it's.

[Oliver Rader]

Yeah, this is requiring a lot of trust between us, I should mention.

[Producer/Interviewer]

Yeah, well, I'll have the producer come and independently verify my dice rolls. Don't worry. Don't worry. So, Oliver, the logic makes sense. Snakes and Adders is a game of pure luck. Monopoly is deeply Flawed. But you have a numerical or statistical basis for making these assertions.

[Oliver Rader]

My data comes from a website called boardgamegeek.com and this is a very, very popular website among some of the serious board Gamers.

[Producer/Interviewer]

Sort of TripAdvisor for board games.

[Oliver Rader]

Exactly. So users on the site will log on and they'll rate games, and importantly, they'll provide a numerical rating. So a rating of 10 is the highest. So I'm interested, when I'm looking at the worst games is first of all, games that people actually play.

[Tim Harford]

So it's not just the worst games,

[Producer/Interviewer]

but, you know, the worst games that are actually reasonably popular. For example, Monopoly and Snakes and Ladders.

[Oliver Rader]

Quite right. I have six games in a Hall of Shame. These are games with around 1,000 to 10,000 users have rated them on the site, but their average rating is somewhere between 2 and 4.

[Producer/Interviewer]

Before I ask you where Snakes and Adders falls there or Monopoly, let me ask you to roll again.

[Oliver Rader]

All right, here we go. I've gotten a seven.

[Producer/Interviewer]

Okay, that takes you to 19. I've got an eight. That takes me to 50. Yeah, still winning. So Snakes and Adders, is that in the hall of Shame or Monopoly?

[Oliver Rader]

Snakes and Ladders is Snakes and Ladders, Tic tac toe, Candyland, the card game War and the Game of Life, along with Monopoly, a lot of these games have something in common, which is they're just utterly based on luck.

[Tim Harford]

So let's be more positive.

[Producer/Interviewer]

Oliver, what about the best games according to the geeks on BoardGamegeek?

[Oliver Rader]

So the best game is a game called Twilight Struggle. This is a two player game. One side takes the Americans, one side takes the Soviets, and we basically play out the Cold War. In a lot of ways, these games that are rated very highly are anti monopolies. Right. They don't suffer from the problems with Monopoly that we discussed earlier. So for instance, you always think you're doing something, you always have a chance to win, and if you're losing, you always have a chance to catch up. These games usually have a very healthy dose of skill. So the balance between skill and luck turns out to be very, very important.

[Producer/Interviewer]

Speaking of which, Oliver, do you want to give me another roll on Snakes and Ladders?

[Oliver Rader]

Yeah, here we go. I've got an eight.

[Tim Harford's Child]

So.

[Oliver Rader]

So that'll put me on. Oh, I just missed the big ladder. That'll put me on 27.

[Producer/Interviewer]

27. And I got a double two. That's a four. That puts me up to 54.

[Oliver Rader]

I think that's a snake.

[Producer/Interviewer]

Yeah, that's a snake that takes me down to 34. But, you know, I'm still winning, so there obviously is some degree of talent required. I'm a little bit puzzled, Oliver. So people who hate board games presumably hate Monopoly, and people who love board games hate Monopoly. They're the people rating games of board game geek. So tell me, why is it that everyone has a copy of Monopoly?

[Oliver Rader]

Well, I think a little bit it's a quirk of history, a quirk of commerce. You know, we all have Monopoly in our closets at home. You know, even though these games aren't the greatest games, we start with these games and we can move on to better ones.

[Producer/Interviewer]

Oliver, I'm going to release you from this game of Snakes and Ladders, which I am winning partly because I may not be winning after much longer. But before I let you go, what's your favourite game?

[Oliver Rader]

My favourite game is Scrabble and interestingly.

[Tim Harford]

Oh, that's a terrible game. We stopped the tape there because nobody wants to hear me burst a blood vessel. Oliver Rader with his favourite pick, Scrabble, a word game. That's all we have time for, but please keep your questions and your suggestions coming in to more or lessbbc.co.uk our website is BBC.com more or less. Until next week. Goodbye.

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