WS MoreOrLess: How safe is flying?

Summary

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Podcast Summary: More or Less — "How Safe is Flying?"

Host: Ruth Alexander
Co-Host: Hannah Moore
Air Date: March 28, 2015

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Episode Overview

In this episode of More or Less on the BBC World Service, Ruth Alexander and Hannah Moore set out to examine the recent spate of high-profile plane crashes and address widespread concerns regarding the safety of air travel. Using statistics, expert interviews, and data analysis, the hosts provide a clear-eyed evaluation of whether flying has become less safe, despite sensational news reports. The episode also pivots to investigate complaints about low penalty awards in the British Premier League, specifically focusing on Chelsea FC, and whether statistics support these claims.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Are Plane Crashes Becoming More Common?

• Recent Incidents:
  The episode opens with mention of the tragic plane crash in the French Alps, brought down deliberately by the co-pilot, and a string of other major crashes over the past year—Malaysian Airlines MH17, TransAsia in Taiwan, Air Algérie in Mali, Indonesia Air Asia, and another TransAsia incident.
  (00:40–02:04)

• Statistical Context:
  Despite the clustering of headline-grabbing disasters, aviation experts maintain these events are not as statistically aberrant as they seem. It’s noted that, over a 10-year span, the likelihood of three major crashes in eight days is about 60%, making it "more likely than not."
  (01:27–01:42)

• Plane Crash Statistics:

  • 2014 had the fewest commercial plane crashes on record:
    21 fatal commercial crashes out of approximately 30 million flights; only 8 of these involved passenger planes.
    (02:17–02:34)
  • Downward trend in crashes:
    In the 1990s, roughly 30 passenger planes crashed each year, while in more recent times, it is closer to 15.
    (02:47–02:57)
  • Spike in fatalities:
    Although the number of crashes is low, nearly 1,000 deaths occurred in 2014, the highest since 2005, but the longer-term average is declining.
    (02:57–03:14)

• Safety Comparison:
  Flying is safer than driving or cycling. Over 1 million road deaths occur annually—about 1,000 times higher than deaths from plane crashes in 2014.
  (03:52–04:01)

2. Expert Analysis: Sir David Spiegelhalter on Risk Perception

• Risk of Flying:
  Cambridge's Prof. David Spiegelhalter reassures that the risk for an average flyer is about 1 in 3 million—lower, at about 1 in 20 million, for those flying with modern Western carriers.

  “For an average person getting on a flight, 1 in 3 million chance, and if you’re in a modern airline in a Western major carrier... up to maybe 1 in 20 million chance. And that’s roughly cycling a mile or driving 10 miles, which we do every day.”
  (03:28–03:52)

• Hazard vs. Risk:
  He explains the difference between an activity being "hazardous" and "risky":

  “A hazard is something that flying five miles up in a plane is extremely hazardous. ...It’s not actually risky because of this enormous amount of safety that’s built in now to modern aircraft, as we’ve heard.”
  (04:08–04:25)

• Perception Bias:
  Rare catastrophic events are burned into public memory, while long periods without incidents pass unnoticed. This skews risk perception.

  “Our minds concentrate on the potential for harm… when they do come, we just remember the last ones that happened.”
  (04:25–04:35)

3. Football Segment: Are Chelsea Unusually Unlucky with Penalties?

• Chelsea's Grievances:
  The episode pivots to claims by Chelsea FC and manager José Mourinho that referees are unfairly awarding them too few penalties (just 2 in 28 games at the time).
  (05:17–05:46)

• Expert Input: Professor Kevin McConway:
  Statistical professor Kevin McConway examines data from past seasons:

  • Chelsea’s historic penalty awards fluctuate—from a high of 12 (2009–10) to a low of 2 (2008–09), with 2 again in the current season.
    (06:00–06:45)

  • Phenomenon of "Regression to the Mean": If a team receives many penalties one year, they're statistically likely to receive fewer the next.

    “Regression to the mean says... likely to get fewer the next season. And that’s partly because... that high number was to some extent a fluke and therefore next season it’ll come down again.”
    (06:45–07:12)

  • Chelsea is not alone: Several teams had only one or two penalties that season.
    (07:12–07:31)

  • League-wide decline: Across all teams, penalties are down: about one every 5 games now, versus one every 3.5 games five years ago.
    (07:35)

  • No evidence of bias: Historically, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man United, and Arsenal have received the most penalties. Chelsea would statistically be expected to have 3.8 penalties at that stage—so two is "lower than expected, but not abnormally low."
    (08:09–08:49)

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Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

• On Air Safety:

  “Flying is safer than driving or cycling. It’s estimated that more than a million people die on the roads in a year—a thousand times more than died in plane crashes last year.”
  (03:52–04:01)

• On Public Perception:

  “Our minds concentrate on the potential for harm. ...When they do come, we just remember the last ones that happened.” — Sir David Spiegelhalter
  (04:25–04:35)

• On Chelsea’s Penalties—Regression to the Mean:

  “...regression to the mean says... likely to get fewer the next season... that high number was to some extent a fluke...” — Prof. Kevin McConway
  (06:45–07:12)

• Statistical Reality Check:

  “Lower than expected, but not abnormally low. A statistical analysis doesn't prove the refs are campaigning against them. Chelsea, kick out your complaining?”
  (08:49–09:00)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:40–02:04 — Recent plane crash coverage and emotional reactions
• 01:12–01:42 — Probability context for clustered crashes
• 02:17–02:57 — Review of crash statistics since the 1990s
• 03:28–04:35 — Expert risk analysis and public perception (Prof. Spiegelhalter)
• 05:17–05:46 — Chelsea’s penalty claims in Premier League
• 06:00–08:49 — Statistical breakdown of penalties and analysis by Prof. McConway

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Tone and Style

The episode maintains an informative, empirical tone, interweaving clear explanations with accessible humor and skepticism. Ruth Alexander and Hannah Moore probe statistical claims with curiosity and a touch of wit, never accepting alarming headlines at face value.

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Summary

This episode provides a reassuring, data-driven perspective on air travel safety—debunking the myth that flying has become more dangerous, even amid back-to-back high-profile crashes. Through statistical context and expert analysis, the hosts show that both large-scale air disasters and fluctuations in football penalty awards often appear more consequential than they really are, and that our intuitive reactions are prone to misjudging risk and randomness.

Listeners gain a deeper understanding of risk statistics—whether for flying or football—while being entertained by the show's characteristically lively approach to demystifying numbers.

Transcript

[A]

This is the short edition of More or Less, first broadcast on the BBC World Service.

[B]

Thank you for downloading from the BBC. For details of our complete range of podcasts and our terms of use, go to bbcworldservice.com podcasts

[A]

hello and welcome to More or Less on the BBC World Service. I'm Ruth Alexander.

[C]

And I'm Hannah Moore. In today's programme, we investigate claims of foul play in the British Premier League. As leaders Chelsea compl They're getting too few penalty kicks.

[A]

But first, are plane crashes becoming more common? A plane has crashed in the French

[C]

Alps, killing 150 people on board.

[A]

News that has shocked the world. There were no survivors from the crash, only a further dreadful twist as we learned that recordings from inside the plane suggested co pilot Andreas Lubitz had brought it down on purpose.

[C]

It's the latest in a series of high profile crashes of large airliners in around a year.

[A]

My initial reaction on hearing the news was what? Another plane crash? What's going on?

[C]

We actually looked into this about eight months ago when there were three horrific crashes in just eight days.

[A]

There was the Malaysian Airlines flight MH17, which was shot out of the sky by a missile while flying over Ukraine on the 17th of July.

[C]

The TransAsia Airlines flight which crashed in Taiwan six days later.

[A]

And then just a day after that, an Air Al Jeri flight crashed in Mali.

[C]

But statistical and aviation experts assured us that though horrendous, to have three planes crash in the space of eight days is not as unlikely as you'd intuitively think, if you calculate the chance of that happening over a 10 year period, it's 60%.

[A]

So more likely than not. But since then, there have been more big dramatic crashes. The Alps crash. Also the Indonesia Air Asia Airbus that crashed into the Java Sea in bad weather in December. The TransAsia Airways plane which crashed shortly after takeoff in Taiwan in February. And of course there's the Malaysia Airlines plane that disappeared. So we've been looking at the numbers

[C]

again and the good news is that the statistics still tell a reassuring story. Looking at the record of flight accidents since 1946, 2014 was actually the year which saw the fewest commercial plane crashes.

[A]

That is such a surprising fact.

[C]

It comes from the Aviation Safety Network, which keeps track of incidents and it counted 21 fatal commercial plane crashes last year. 21 crashes out of about 30 million flights.

[A]

Oh, 21 really is a small number then.

[C]

Yes. And if you exclude cargo planes from that number and just look only at passenger planes, there were just eight fatal crashes last year. And two so far this year. And looking back over time, you can see air travel getting Safer. In the 90s, about 30 passenger planes tended to crash a year. In more recent times, we've seen around 15 on average.

[A]

But what did spike last year is the number of people killed in the few crashes that happened. Almost 1,000 people died in in the eight passenger plane crashes, the most in a single year since 2005. But looking at the overall picture, the average has been falling over the past two decades.

[C]

So while the news of a plane crash is always horrifying, plane crash statistics are actually, on the whole, reassuring. Something. Cambridge University's professor for the public understanding of risk, Sir David Spiegelhalter, went on the BBC to make clear.

[D]

We heard last year maybe a thousand were killed, which is a lot, a very high number. But it still means that for an average person getting on a flight, 1 in 3 million chance, and if you're in a modern airline, in a Western major carrier, then the chance is going to be even lower. I think up to maybe 1 in 1 in 20 million chance. And that's roughly cycling a mile or driving 10 miles, which we do every day.

[A]

Flying is safer than driving or cycling. It's estimated that more than a million people die on the roads in a year, a thousand times more than died in plane crashes last year.

[C]

And it's the very fact that plane crashes are rare that makes them more noticeable, as Professor Spiegelhalter explained.

[D]

If you think of it, there's this distinction that people make between a hazard and a risk. And a hazard is something that flying five miles up in a plane is extremely hazardous. There's all sorts of catastrophic things that could happen. It's not actually risky because of this enormous amount of safety that's built in now to modern aircraft, as we've heard. But our minds concentrate on the potential for harm. And of course, there hasn't been a major crash in three months. But we don't think about, oh, there hasn't been one for a while. When they do come, we just remember the last ones that happened. And of course, last year there were three major ones in eight days in July. But you can work out that in fact, just by chance alone, you'd expect something like that to happen about every 10 years.

[A]

Professor David Spiegelhalter, a man whose wisdom I always bring to mind when I'm flying. Now there's trouble at the top of the British Premier League. Chelsea Football Club. That's their rousing anthem. There are calling foul play on referees in an article on the club's website, they complain that they've only been awarded two penalties from 28 games so far this season, a number they call abnormally low.

[C]

The team's manager, Jose Mourinho, has been complaining about this all season. Claiming the low number of penalties and it is low in comparison to recent years, shows referees are biased against the club.

[A]

In January, he was fined £25,000, that's about $35,000 for complaining of a campaign against his team. But that hasn't stopped him. During an appearance on Sky Sports, he claimed that referees are not doing well and need to use more technology to help their judgment.

[C]

With only two months of the season left, it seems Chelsea will end on a low total. But every team's numbers go up and down from season to season. The question is, is the variation Chelsea's experiencing really abnormal?

[A]

We've asked Kevin McConway, who's professor of Applied Statistics at the Open University in the uk, and I should say for the purposes of impartiality, a what they

[B]

may be looking Back to is two seasons ago, the 1213 season when they were awarded 11 penalties, which is really a heck of a lot. And if you go back another three seasons before that to nine, 10, they were awarded 12 penalties. Last season they were awarded seven. If you go back further than that, well, they didn't do so well. They only got two in the 2008 nine season. But generally there, I mean, that's the lowest they've ever had, is 2 over the period that I looked at. So 2 so far this season, if they don't get any more, that is historically low. But there's another kind of feature that comes in here. If a team gets a high number of penalties or a high count of anything in a particular season, a phenomenon known as regression to the mean says the way random variability works is that they would be likely to get fewer the next season. And that's partly because it's much more difficult to increase the number of penalties to get above this high number you already got. It's much more likely that that high number was to some extent a fluke and therefore next season it'll come down again.

[C]

And Chelsea aren't the only team in the Premier League to have been awarded only two penalties this season. Fourth place, Manchester United, Leicester, Burnley, Southampton and Kevin's club Sunderland have all had the same and five teams, including ninth placed West Ham, have only had one penalty each.

[A]

And Kevin says in fact the average number of penalties across all teams is

[B]

down in this season. So far across the whole league there's about one penalty every five games. If you go back to 29, 10, it was about one penalty every three and a half games. There were just many more of them. Now I know Chelsea have been complaining about the way refereeing works and that it doesn't favour them enough or there's prejudice and so on. I really don't want to go into that. But it does seem to be true that overall across the league fewer penalties are being awarded than has been the case. If you go back a few seasons

[C]

and Kevin's analysis shows Chelsea haven't been hard done by in previous seasons.

[B]

If you restrict yourself to looking at teams that have actually been in the Premiership for a lot of seasons during the 13 I looked at the best one is Liverpool and the second best one is Chelsea and then we get to Man United and Arsenal. So it's sort of the usual suspects. It's teams that are doing well generally, on average over a number of seasons.

[A]

So perhaps Chelsea have got spoilt then by having so many penalties awarded to them in seasons past. Kevin's analysis of the past 13 seasons of Premier League data shows you'd expect them to have about 3.8 penalties by now.

[C]

OK. And they've had two. So lower than expected, but not abnormally low. A statistical analysis doesn't prove the refs are campaigning against them. Chelsea kick out your complaining?

[A]

Yeah. Keep your comments and ideas coming to More or [e-mail]. you can help make our inbox a treasure trove of statistical sapphires. And you need never miss an episode either. Subscribe to our podcast at our website BBC.com more or less.

[B]

There are dozens of different podcasts now available from the BBC, including news, documentaries, science, business, arts and sports. The details of them all go to bbcworldservice. Com Podcasts.