WS MoreOrLess: Indian Farmer Suicides

Summary

Podcast Summary: More or Less – Indian Farmer Suicides
Host: Ruth Alexander (BBC Radio 4)
Episode Date: January 21, 2013

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Episode Overview

This episode of More or Less investigates widely circulated claims regarding an "epidemic" of Indian farmer suicides, specifically debunking the assertion that "several million farmers have committed suicide in the past few years." The program scrutinizes the numbers, examines the sources and context of the statistics, and clarifies common confusions about large-number quantifiers used in South Asia. The tone remains matter-of-fact, skeptical, and compassionate toward the nuances of tragic statistics.

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Key Discussion Points

1. The Claim: Millions of Indian Farmer Suicides

• [00:32] Jim Rogers' Statement:
  Jim Rogers, influential investor:

  "Several million farmers have committed suicide in India in the past few years because they couldn't make a living."

2. Fact-Checking the Numbers

• Investigated by Wesley Stevenson:

  • Rogers believes the official number is "two and a half million in the last 15 years or so."
    • [01:47] Wesley Stevenson:

      "He's actually out by a factor of 10. The official figures show that since 1995… there have been 270,000 suicides among farmers in India."

• Explanation for the Numeric Confusion:

  • Likely confusion between “lakh” (100,000) and “million.”
    • [02:07] Wesley Stevenson:

      "I think the reason is, is because he's probably mistaken a lakh for a million..."

3. Reliability and Context of Official Suicide Statistics

• Underreporting issues: Professor Prabhat Jha notes that because suicide is a taboo subject, official statistics (typically based on police reports) underreport the true number, possibly by up to 25%.
  • [02:47] Prof. Prabhat Jha:

    "We noted there is that up to a quarter of the suicides are under reported. And the reason is obvious. Suicide is a taboo subject."

4. Proportion of Farmer Suicides vs. Total Suicides

• Even accounting for underreporting, the scale is hundreds of thousands, not millions.
• Key contextual insight: In 2010, about 19,000 agricultural worker suicides, equating to about 10% of total suicides in India, while agricultural workers make up over 20% of the population.
  • [03:58] Prof. Prabhat Jha:

    “Of all the suicides occurring in India, that would suggest it’s only about 10% of all of the suicides are actually in farmers.”

  • [04:27] Ruth Alexander:

    "Meaning that the suicide rate among farm workers is not unusually high."

  • [04:30] Wesley Stevenson:

    "No. [...] While the suicide rate in India is high, it’s 15 for every 100,000 people. The suicide rate amongst agricultural workers is around 7 per 100,000."

5. The True Tragedy and Shifting the Focus

• Prof. Jha highlights that most suicides are not among farmers, but young adults facing social pressures:
  • [04:54] Prof. Prabhat Jha:

    "The main reason for suicide deaths is really occurring at younger ages, particularly around the time that young adults either join the workforce or they get married. [...] It’s really this context of social pressure that is most associated with suicide, not farming."

6. Why the Numeric Confusion Happens: Lakhs and Crores

• Aneesh Ghosh, Maths Professor (University of East Anglia):
  • Lakhs: 1 lakh = 100,000
  • Crores: 1 crore = 100 lakhs = 10 million
• The system can mislead those unfamiliar with it, especially when numbers are written with different comma conventions.
  • [05:55] Aneesh Ghosh:

    "If you want to talk of say 500,000 of something, then in India you would naturally say 5 lakhs. Certainly it can cause confusion..." "So you've got exactly the same number of zeros as in the West, but you've got two commas."

• [06:43] On Crores:

  "That's right. So a crore is 100 lakhs... the Indian version of Who Wants to Be a Millionaire has a crore as the prize, not a million."

7. Historical Roots of South Asian Numbering

• Professor Chris Minowski (Oxford University):
  • “Lakh” derives from Sanskrit “laksha”; “crore” from “koti.” The use of such large number units is ancient, reflecting the fascination for quantifying big numbers in Indian languages and sciences.
  • [07:27] Prof. Chris Minowski:

    "Koti is a word that means the point or the tip or the ultimate. [...] It might have been that the figure of 10 million or a crore was the highest number that they were using."

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• [01:47] Wesley Stevenson (on the actual statistics):

  "Since 1995, there have been 270,000 suicides among farmers in India."

• [02:47] Prof. Prabhat Jha (on underreporting):

  "Up to a quarter of the suicides are under reported. And the reason is obvious. Suicide is a taboo subject."

• [04:30] Wesley Stevenson (on rates):

  "The suicide rate amongst agricultural workers is around 7 per 100,000."

• [04:54] Prof. Jha (on root causes):

  "The main reason for suicide deaths is really occurring at younger ages... social pressure... not farming."

• [05:55] Aneesh Ghosh (on numeric confusion):

  "Certainly it can cause confusion and one of the ways is if you see it written down as a number."

• [07:27] Prof. Chris Minowski (on the origins of 'crore'):

  "An enumeration of the universe with specific vocabulary for each of these powers of ten seems to be a fascination and an interest from a very early period."

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Key Timestamps & Segments

• [00:32–00:39] – Jim Rogers’ claim on millions of farmer suicides.
• [01:24–02:02] – Fact-checking: official number is about 270,000, not millions.
• [02:31–03:12] – Reliability and underreporting of suicide data.
• [03:38–04:30] – Context: Proportion of farmer suicides and comparison with the general population.
• [04:54] – Broader context: Most suicides are linked to social pressure among young adults.
• [05:55–06:43] – Explaining “lakh” and “crore” and confusion over large numbers.
• [07:27–08:47] – Historical origins of South Asian large-number terms.

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Takeaways

• The oft-quoted figure of “millions” of Indian farmer suicides is erroneous—official figures since 1995 are about 270,000, possibly undercounted by about 25%.
• The confusion often stems from unfamiliarity with South Asian quantifiers like “lakh” and “crore.”
• Farmer suicides are indeed a tragic and significant issue, but the rate among agricultural workers is actually below the national average for suicides in India.
• Overemphasis on agricultural suicide without context diverts attention from other pressing suicide risk groups, such as young adults facing social and societal pressures.

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For more accurate statistical insights, question big numbers and understand the context and local numbering systems in global reporting.

Transcript

[BBC Announcer]

Thank you for downloading from the BBC. For details of our complete range of podcasts and our terms of use, go to bbcworldserveys.com podcasts

[Ruth Alexander]

hello and welcome to More or Less on the BBC World Service with me, Ruth Alexander. This week we look at whether there's an epidemic of suicides among farmers in India. A listener, Mark, has drawn our attention to a claim made about the number of such deaths during a debate about food prices on the BBC.

[Jim Rogers]

Several million farmers have committed suicide in India in the past few years because they couldn't make a living. Now, I would like for you to go. That's correct.

[Wesley Stevenson]

They're being.

[Jim Rogers]

I would like for you to go to the widows and say to them, should prices have been higher or lower,

[Ruth Alexander]

but have several million farmers in India really killed themselves in recent years? Mark finds it hard to believe this is desperately tragic, however many it applies to, he says. But it seems out by an order of magnitude, even for a country with more than a billion people and a high proportion of farmers. The number of farmers killing themselves in India has received huge attention worldwide over the past few years, and a lot of resources have been ploughed into tackling the problem. But is everyone joining in the debate, quite sure of their numbers? Mark, we shared your suspicions and we got Wesley Stevenson investigating.

[Wesley Stevenson]

Hi, Ruth. Yes, to check this out, first of all, we contacted Jim Rogers, an influential investor who you heard talking earlier. Now, what precise data was he referring to when he said millions had died in recent years? Well, he said the statistic, as he remembers it, is officially two and a half million in the last 15 years or so.

[Ruth Alexander]

So that's as he remembers the official figures. But you've actually looked at them, Wes.

[Wesley Stevenson]

Yes, and he's actually out by a factor of 10. The official figures show that since 1995, which, as far as I can tell, is an arbitrary Starting point, since 1995, there have been 270,000 suicides among farmers in India.

[Ruth Alexander]

So Jim Rogers is out by a factor of 10. That's a really large amount. Why do you think that is?

[Wesley Stevenson]

Well, I think the reason is, is because he's probably mistaken a lakh for a million, because in South Asia, they don't use millions, they use lakhs. And 1 lakh is a hundred thousand. And in print, it's written in a way that could cause you to confuse the two.

[Ruth Alexander]

Well, we'll come back to that later. So Jim Rogers was out by a factor of 10. But how reliable are the official statistics? I mean, maybe they don't capture the whole story themselves.

[Wesley Stevenson]

Well, no, they probably don't. A huge study of suicides in India, which was published in the medical journal the Lancet last July, found a problem with these official figures. Professor Prabhat Jha is the director of the Centre for Global Health Research at the University of Toronto in Canada and is one of the authors.

[Professor Prabhat Jha]

The official statistics in India, including those for farmers, rely on basically what are police reports of suicide. And what we noted there is that up to a quarter of the suicides are under reported. And the reason is obvious. Suicide is a taboo subject. But when we send survey teams to the household, and they know the survey teams, they're much more likely to report a suicide.

[Ruth Alexander]

So Prabhat Jha estimates the official number of suicides among farmers is 25% lower than the real figure. And although we're not, as it turns out, talking about millions of deaths, we are talking about hundreds of thousands. And that still sounds like a lot of people.

[Wesley Stevenson]

Yes. And campaign groups who think food speculators and GM crop companies are causing farmers to get into financial difficulties would like you to think this is a big number.

[Ruth Alexander]

But.

[Wesley Stevenson]

But the one thing that's missing in any of this is context. Let's just take one year, 2010, according to Professor Jha's estimates, there were 19,000 suicides by agricultural workers, which is clearly 19,000 too many. But I asked Professor Jha how this compares to other areas of Indian life.

[Professor Prabhat Jha]

So if we think, even if there's some underreporting, we estimate in 2010, close to 190 suicides. So of all the suicides occurring in India, that would suggest it's only about 10% of all of the suicides are actually in farmers.

[Wesley Stevenson]

So 10% of all suicides are amongst agricultural workers. But agricultural workers, if you look at the figures, make up just over 20% of the population.

[Ruth Alexander]

Meaning that the suicide rate among farm workers is not unusually high.

[Wesley Stevenson]

No. And using the figures from Professor Jha's findings and population figures from the un, you can show that while the suicide rate in India is high, it's 15 for every 100,000 people. The suicide rate amongst agricultural workers is around 7 per 100,000. While the plight of these farmers is tragic, Professor Jha says the overemphasis on agricultural suicides means another vital group isn't being addressed.

[Professor Prabhat Jha]

While farmer suicide is important in India, the main reason for suicide deaths is really occurring at younger ages, particularly around the time that young adults either join the workforce or they get married. And it's really this context of social pressure that is most associated with suicide, not farming.

[Ruth Alexander]

Prabhat Jha, the director of the Centre for Global Health Research in Canada, with an example of how a well intentioned focus on numbers, which at first glance look big, can distract you from the real story and thanks to Wesley Stevenson. But back to the question of how investor Jim Rogers could get the numbers of farming suicides wrong by a factor of 10. We think it's probably that he got his millions confused with his lax and his craws. If you're listening in South Asia, you know what I mean. If not, you're probably a bit puzzled. Aneesh Ghosh, maths Professor at the UK's University of East Anglia, can explain though

[Aneesh Ghosh]

a lakh is 100,000 of anything. So once you've got 100,000, say rupees or 100,000 geese or 100,000 people, you have a lakh. So human beings like to count in multiples of units. So if you want to talk of say 500,000 of something, then in India you would naturally say 5 lakhs. Certainly it can cause confusion and one of the ways is if you see it written down as a number. So essentially, since it's 100,000, emphasize the fact that it's one of something. It's one lakh. You start with a one, you then have a comma, two more zeros, a comma and three more zeros. So you've got exactly the same number of zeros as in the west, but you've got two commas.

[Ruth Alexander]

In India, there's also the crore as well, just to add more confusion.

[Aneesh Ghosh]

That's right. So a crore is 100 lakhs. So you start with a one and then there'll be a comma and two zeros and a comma, two more zeros and a comma and three zeros. So for instance, the Indian version of who Wants to Be a Millionaire has a crore as the price, not a million. So the million somehow never entered the system because you've got a unit which is a lakh, and then the next step up is 100 of those lakhs.

[Ruth Alexander]

So 100 lakhs equals a crore, which equals 10 million. But how did these peculiarly self Asian quantifiers come into being in the first place? Time for a brief history lesson from Professor Chris Minowski at Oxford University.

[Professor Chris Minowski]

Those words in Hindi and the other modern Indian languages go back to Sanskrit words. So the word for lakh, it's actually a slightly different word, laksha. And the word for 10 million crore goes back to a Sanskrit word, koti. Koti is a word that means the point or the tip or the ultimate. And so it seems that in some numbering system long ago, it might have been that the figure of 10 million or a crore was the highest number that they were using. An enumeration of the universe with specific vocabulary for each of these powers of ten seems to be a fascination and an interest from a very early period. As time goes on in the Sanskrit literature, you find much more frequently referenced to those particular units of 100,000 and 100, 100,000 or 10 million as the preferred units for expressing these large numbers. By the first few centuries of the Christian era, the Common Era, the terms are being used by the mathematicians and the astronomers, and especially by the astronomers who, when they calculate the speed of planets, they like to do it by expressing very large ratios of whole numbers.

[Ruth Alexander]

Chris Minowski and if you live somewhere where unusual terms of quantification are used, we'd love to hear about them. You can email us at more or lessbc.co.uk we'd also welcome your thoughts on which numbers and statistics you think we should shine our spotlight on. And you can hear more editions of the program at our website, bbcworldservice.com More or less

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