WS MoreOrLess: Is this the greatest world cup ever?

Summary

More or Less (BBC Radio 4)

Episode Summary: "Is this the greatest World Cup ever?"

Date: June 28, 2014
Host: Ruth Alexander
Contributors: Wesley Stevenson, Paul Wainwright, Michael Cox

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Main Theme

This episode of "More or Less" investigates whether the 2014 FIFA World Cup can truly be considered the greatest ever, using numbers and statistics to support or debunk the claim. The hosts dig into data around goals scored, match outcomes, playing styles, and historical comparisons to determine what makes a World Cup "great"—and whether 2014 stands out.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Is 2014 Really the Most Exciting World Cup? (00:26)

• The episode opens in debate: Is Brazil 2014 the best World Cup ever? Wesley Stevenson insists it is, even for fans of ousted teams like England and Spain, while Ruth Alexander remains skeptical.

2. Statistical Arguments for 2014’s Greatness

Goals Galore (01:06)

• Wesley Stevenson:
  "At the end of the group stages there were an average of 2.83 goals per game. That's unprecedented in the modern era... You have to go back to 1958 to find that level of goals in a group stage." (01:06)
• High-scoring matches are seen as a key indicator of excitement.

Dramatic, Late-Deciding Goals (01:29)

• Wesley Stevenson:
  "In 2014 there have been seven matches decided in the last five minutes. That's a higher percentage than nearly all the previous World Cups." (01:29)
• More matches than usual are being decided at the last minute, heightening drama.

Both Teams Scoring (02:17)

• Paul Wainwright:
  "2014 have seen 56% of games where both teams have found the back of the net... equal highest since 1958." (02:17)
• 2014 outshines recent tournaments (2010: 40%, 2006: 38%) for competitive scoring.

Closely Contested Matches (02:52)

• Paul Wainwright:
  "2014 is equal to 2010 with 44% of games ending in a one goal margin. That's the equal highest that we've had in the history of all of the World Cups." (02:52)
• A striking portion of games are being decided by just one goal, suggesting tighter competition.

Fewer Draws, More Decisive Results (03:37)

• Paul Wainwright:
  "In 2014 a record of 83% of games have ended in a result. We've got to go back all the way to 1954 to find a World cup where we had a comparable result." (03:37)
• Compared to the previous tournaments (2010: 71%, 2006: 77%), 2014 delivers more definitive outcomes.

Summary Quote:
"So when all of these figures combine, you can see that this World cup has been the most exciting. Certainly up until the end of the group stages." – Paul Wainwright (04:22)

3. The Shift in Playing Styles

From Tiki-Taka to Counter-Attack (04:37)

• Wesley Stevenson:
  "At the last World cup, well, it was a bit dull. And in part that was because everyone wanted to play like Barcelona. Tiki Taka... It was all about keeping possession. If your opponent can't have the ball, he can't score."
• Michael Cox:
  "The more possession teams had, the more likely they were to have shots, the more likely they were to score goals, and the more likely they were to win games..." (05:26)

2014’s Tactical Turnaround (05:53)

• Wesley Stevenson:
  "In 2010, around 2/3 of the group games were won by the team with the most possession. In 2014, it's closer to 50. 50 Half the games have been won by teams with the least possession." (05:53)
• Teams like Colombia win games despite having less of the ball; new tactical approaches are altering outcomes.

Evolving Club Influence (06:18)

• Michael Cox:
  "This year was contested by Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid, two teams who were much better on the counter attack than they were when dominating the ball... Atletico Madrid won the Spanish La Liga title despite averaging less than 50% possession..." (06:18)
• Club football trends ripple into the World Cup, influencing national teams' strategies.

4. The True Test: Knockout Rounds Await (08:18)

• Michael Cox:
  "I think the group stage has been absolutely fantastic, but really it's the knockout stage that people remember in even four years time, let alone 20, 30, 40 years time. And it's all about the last 16 games, really... If they're open and entertaining, then people remember this World cup as a classic." (08:18)
• The episode stresses that while the group stage has been thrilling, history judges World Cups by their knockout-stage drama.

5. Notable Quotes and Moments

• Memorable exchange on high scoring:
  "You're tough, aren't you?" – Wesley Stevenson to Ruth Alexander (01:45)
• On observing comebacks:
  "Within the first five days there had been more comebacks from 1–0 down than there had in the entire previous tournament." – Michael Cox (07:47)
• The bottom line:
  "So thank you. If you want us to check out some numbers for you, you can get in touch with us..." – Ruth Alexander (08:57)

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Timestamps for Important Segments

| Timestamp | Segment Description | |-----------|---------------------------------------------------------| | 00:26 | Opening debate—Is 2014 the best World Cup? | | 01:06 | Goals per game comparison | | 01:29 | Late goals and match drama | | 02:17 | Both teams scoring—Paul Wainwright's analysis | | 02:52 | Close games (one-goal margins) | | 03:37 | Decisive results vs. draws | | 04:37 | Tactical context—Comparing 2010 and 2014 styles | | 05:26 | Michael Cox on possession and its correlation with wins | | 05:53 | 2014: Rise of the counter-attacking underdog | | 06:18 | Club football’s influence on World Cup strategies | | 07:47 | Notable comeback stat | | 08:18 | Michael Cox on lasting World Cup memories |

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Conclusion

The 2014 World Cup offers a statistical bonanza of goals, late drama, close matches, and decisive outcomes rarely seen in recent tournaments. Tactical shifts away from possession-based football have contributed to unpredictability and spectacle, although luck and the quality of national teams also play a role. Whether 2014 is the greatest World Cup ever, the hosts and experts agree, will depend on the knockout rounds' ability to sustain the excitement—but, up to the group stage, the tournament is already making a strong claim.

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Notable Quotes:

• "2014 is certainly way ahead of the most recent World Cups." – Paul Wainwright (02:17)
• "It's this counter attacking style of football...which means that this is a more exciting World cup than the last one?" – Ruth Alexander (06:51)
• "History judges World Cups by their knockout-stage drama." – Michael Cox (08:18)

Transcript

[Ruth Alexander]

This is the short edition of More or Less first broadcast on the BBC World Service.

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[Ruth Alexander]

hello, this is More Or Less the programme about numbers on the BBC World Service. And I'm Ruth Alexander.

[Wesley Stevenson]

Do you know what, Ruth? This is the best World cup ever, isn't it?

[Ruth Alexander]

Oh, Wesley Stevenson, finally torn yourself away from the TV screen? No, I don't think so. Not if you're English, Spanish, Ghanaian, South Korean, Italian or Giorgio Collini's shoulder. No, no, it's not.

[Wesley Stevenson]

Well, yeah, I see what you're saying, but speaking as an England fan, you know, it should have been a miserable experience. But it hasn't been.

[Ruth Alexander]

So it's been better than 86, has it? Where Diego Maradona almost single handedly propelled Argentina to victory or. Or 1990 when England went through to the semi finals and better than France. Was it 98 when the French won the cup for the first time?

[Wesley Stevenson]

Yeah, absolutely.

[Ruth Alexander]

Okay, prove it. And with numbers.

[Wesley Stevenson]

OK, sink your teeth into this lot. At the end of the group stages there were an average of 2.83 goals per game. That's unprecedented in the modern era. What's more exciting than goals? You have to go back to 1958 to find that level of goals in a group stage.

[Ruth Alexander]

Okay, that's good, but keep going.

[Wesley Stevenson]

Last minute goals that change the match. In 2014 there have been seven matches decided in the last five minutes. That's a higher percentage than nearly all the previous World Cups.

[Ruth Alexander]

Nail biting stuff, but only nearly all. Anything else?

[Wesley Stevenson]

You're tough, aren't you? Ok, here to help me, I'm going to bring in Paul Wainwright, he's an Aussie. Another man who should think this World cup is terrible because the Aussies are out. They lost all their games and because of the time difference they've had to get up in the middle of the night to view their games.

[Ruth Alexander]

That's tough.

[Wesley Stevenson]

It is tough. But he's written an article for the Aussie sports website Raw to show doubters like you that they're wrong. Both teams scoring. Now that would be exciting, wouldn't it?

[Ruth Alexander]

I suppose.

[Wesley Stevenson]

Tell it, Paul.

[Paul Wainwright]

2014 have seen 56% of games where both teams have found the back of the net, which is equal to 1982. But it's also the equal highest that we've had since 1958 where we saw 67% of games that had both teams find the back of the net. So in terms of looking at 2010 and 2006, we had 40% and 38% respectively. So 2014 is certainly way ahead of the most recent World Cups.

[Ruth Alexander]

But both teams can score in a 51 thrashing though, can't they?

[Wesley Stevenson]

Well, yeah, that's true, but. Okay, let's try something else. Let's look at close games.

[Paul Wainwright]

Close games again. 2014 is equal to 2010 with 44% of games ending in a one goal margin. That's the equal highest that we've had in the history of all of the World Cups. So we've had that number in 2010, 2014, 1990 all ended with 44% of games with the one goal margin in the group stages. Comparing to 2006 where we had 31% of games ending in a one goal margin. You can see that 2014 statistically is a long way ahead of some of the most recent World Cups.

[Ruth Alexander]

Okay, well maybe.

[Wesley Stevenson]

Oh come on Ruth. What do I have to do? All right, final one here draws surely fewer draws the more exciting the World Cup. Go on, Paul.

[Paul Wainwright]

Yeah, so this is the one where the 2014 World cup has been really, really outstanding so far. In 2014 a record of 83% of games have ended in a result. We've got to go back all the way to 1954 to find a World cup where we had a comparable result. So we had 88% of games in 1954 that ended in a result. So comparing that against recent World Cups, 2010 we had 71%. 2006, 77. So you can see that 2014 with 83% of games ending in a is a fair way ahead of the most recent World Cups. So what we're seeing is a lot of goals fly in. We're seeing games that are much tighter in terms of the margin and we're seeing a lot of games that have a result and with both teams scoring. So when all of these figures combine, you can see that this World cup has been the most exciting. Certainly up until the end of the group stages.

[Wesley Stevenson]

You convinced yet?

[Ruth Alexander]

Alright, I'm convinced. The 2014 World cup is the best World cup ever.

[Wesley Stevenson]

Thank goodness for that.

[Ruth Alexander]

But why is it?

[Wesley Stevenson]

Well, do you remember the last World cup in South Africa in 2010?

[Ruth Alexander]

I do.

[Wesley Stevenson]

The thing is, at the last World cup, well, it was a bit dull. And in part that was because everyone wanted to play like Barcelona. Tiki Taka.

[Ruth Alexander]

Tiki Taka?

[Wesley Stevenson]

Yeah, Tiki Taka. You know, short quick passes around the midfield, played into players feet. It was all about keeping possession. If your opponent can't have the ball, he can't score. And you just have to be patient and wait for an opportunity to get that ball in the back of the net. And that's exactly what Spain did to win the World cup in 2010 and

[Ruth Alexander]

won every game one nil.

[Wesley Stevenson]

Yes, it does divide people because it's not always the most thrilling style to watch. But possession football has been the dominant form of winning the game. According to Michael Cox of zonalmarking.net he's looked at what the possession stats show.

[Michael Cox]

Well, they basically showed that the more possession teams had, the more likely they were to have shots, the more likely they were to score goals, and the more likely they were to win games. Whether that's a cause or effect thing was difficult to say because it's natural that the best teams will have the ball, they'll keep it better, they'll win it back quicker. Often it doesn't necessarily mean that they are a better team by virtue of having the ball, but there was certainly a correlation.

[Ruth Alexander]

So this World cup is different then, is it?

[Wesley Stevenson]

Yeah, that's right. So in 2010, around 2/3 of the group games were won by the team with the most possession. In 2014, it's closer to 50. 50 Half the games have been won by teams with the least possession. And when the Netherlands beat Spain, for example, they had just 36% of the possession. Colombia, they've won all their matches with less of the ball than their opponents. Michael Cox isn't sure why, but he has a theory.

[Michael Cox]

I think there's been a change in emphasis of the way teams play. Four years ago, everyone was trying to replicate the Barcelona, which have been widely successful at club level. Now, four years on, Barcelona have declined slightly. The Champions League final this year was contested by Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid, two teams who were much better on the counter attack than they were when dominating the ball. In fact, Atletico Madrid won the Spanish La Liga title despite averaging less than 50% possession, which is pretty much unprecedented in the last few years. And I think a lot of teams have attempted to replicate that.

[Ruth Alexander]

So it's this counter attacking style of football. Which means that this is a more exciting World cup than the last one?

[Wesley Stevenson]

Well, yeah, sort of. I mean, obviously this is football, so there's loads of things which affect whether the game is good, and a sizeable slice of that is down to luck. But Michael isn't sure it's the whole reason.

[Michael Cox]

I think, to be honest, it's probably a factor, but I think the Bigger factor is there just happen to be quite a lot of good teams this time around. It sounds like a silly thing to say, but you've got teams like Colombia and Chile who have an outside chance of winning the competition, whereas usually they don't even qualify for the tournament. So it's certainly been a factor and there's been some brilliant fast attacking, but I'm not sure it's the primary reason why there's been so many goals and so many great games.

[Ruth Alexander]

And what did Michael say about this being, as you say, the greatest World cup ever?

[Wesley Stevenson]

Well, you heard him there. There's been lots of goals, many great games.

[Ruth Alexander]

He agreed completely.

[Wesley Stevenson]

Well, yeah, I mean, he came up this great stat for a start.

[Michael Cox]

Within the first five days there had been more comebacks from 10 down than there had in the entire previous tournament. So people often look at the goals per game average to measure great games, which doesn't always work because sometimes goals per game average can be pushed up by the fact someone wins 6 0. But the fact so many teams have gone ahead and then been pigged back and then gone behind, I think has really made it an exciting World Cup.

[Ruth Alexander]

Is that all he said?

[Wesley Stevenson]

Well, he might have said a bit more.

[Ruth Alexander]

Come on, Wesley.

[Wesley Stevenson]

Alright then, this is what he said.

[Michael Cox]

I think the group stage has been absolutely fantastic, but really it's the knockout stage that people remember in even four years time, let alone 20, 30, 40 years time. And it's all about the last 16 games, really. If they're open and entertaining, then people remember this World cup as a classic. But if it kind of reverts to a defensive, slow format style of football, then I don't think people will look back and remember what a great game Cameroon against Croatia was in the group stage.

[Ruth Alexander]

So this tournament isn't over then, Wes. It's probably a little bit early to say definitively that it is the greatest World cup ever.

[Wesley Stevenson]

You're determined to prove me wrong, aren't you, Ruth?

[Ruth Alexander]

No, I think you have proved your point, Wes. Up to a point. So thank you. If you want us to check out some numbers for you, you can get in touch with us at more or lessbc.co.uk and if you want to find out more about the programme or get our free download, you can go to our bbcworldservice.com more or less.

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