WS MoreOrLess: Neknomination Outbreak

Summary

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Podcast Summary: More or Less – "Neknomination Outbreak"

BBC Radio 4 – World Service Edition
Date: February 22, 2014
Host: Charlotte McDonald
Guests: Adam Kacharski (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine), Ben Carter (reporter), Maurice Nettley (OECD Head of Tax Statistics)

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Overview

This episode tackles two subjects: the rapid spread of the online drinking game Neknomination (using the lens of infectious disease modelling), and an exploration of income tax rates around the world. The hosts and guests break down the numbers, dispel common misconceptions, and discuss how both viral trends and taxation impact societies globally.

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Segment 1: Neknomination as a Social Epidemic

Introduction: The Neknomination Phenomenon

[00:32] - [00:54]

• Neknomination is a social media drinking game.
• Participants film themselves drinking (often a pint in one go), then nominate friends to do the same.
• The trend has resulted in reported deaths and thousands of videos.

Epidemiological Insight: Treating Trends Like Outbreaks

Guest: Adam Kacharski
[01:26]

• Adam Kacharski draws parallels between Neknomination and infectious disease outbreaks.
• Two main epidemiological numbers referenced:

  • Reproduction Number (R):

    • Average number of secondary cases from a typical "infectious" person.
    • For Neknomination: Each nominee creates 2 or 3 new nominations.
    • "The reproduction number is between about two or three. This is similar to what we saw for the 2003 SARS outbreak and the 1918 influenza pandemic." — Adam Kacharski, [01:26]

  • Generation Time:

    • Time between one person becoming "symptomatic" (posting a video) and the next.
    • In Neknomination, this interval is 24 hours.
    • "People are given 24 hours to down their drink." — Adam Kacharski, [02:14]

Exponential Spread—But Not Global

[02:35] - [03:23]

• The hosts run through the math:
  • 1 video → 2 videos the next day, 4 the next, 8 after that, and so on.
  • Theoretically, everyone on Earth could be "nominated" in just over a month.
  • In reality, most people don't participate, and the trend stays within friendship groups.
  • "In reality, there’s a limited group of people who are susceptible to an infection." — Adam Kacharski, [03:26]
  • The outbreak usually "burns out" when there are no more new people to nominate.

Multiple Origins, Short Lifespan

[04:06]

• Multiple small outbreaks likely start independently, rather than one global origin.
  • "Each one is a very small localised outbreak, each of which burns out very quickly." — Adam Kacharski, [04:33]
• Among any given friendship group, Neknomination tends to last just about two weeks.
• Reassurance: If you’re tired of seeing it online, it will naturally fade away soon.

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Segment 2: How Do Income Tax Rates Compare Around the World?

Comparing Taxes Globally

[04:33] - [06:19]

• Focus shifts from digital epidemics to another kind of "viral" phenomenon—taxation debates.
• Ben Carter presents data from PricewaterhouseCoopers on the G20 nations:
  • In Italy, a $400,000 salary is taxed at nearly 50%.
  • In Saudi Arabia, only 3% is paid at the same income.
  • Most rich countries tax high earners at 30–45%.
  • "In most of these rich nations, you pay between 30 and 45%." — Ben Carter, [05:15]

Thresholds for Top Tax Rates

• The salary at which the highest rate applies varies widely:
  • Denmark: 60% tax on earnings over $60,000.
  • US: Top rate (about 40%) kicks in at roughly $400,000.
• "Poor old Danes." — Charlotte McDonald, [06:19]
• "Although they were ranked the happiest country in the whole world in last year’s World Happiness Report." — Ben Carter, [06:21]

Real Burden vs. Headlines

• Actual burden on middle-class earners is a better measure of tax fairness.
• Tax is more than just income tax—it includes social security, tax credits, etc.
• OECD’s Maurice Nettley provides comparative statistics:
  • Highest total tax: Belgium (43%), Germany (39.9%).
  • Lowest: Chile (7%), Mexico (9.5%).
• Married people with children usually see tax rates decrease significantly; for example, in Germany, it drops from 39.9% to 21.3%.
  • "Greece is the only country where you actually pay more tax if you are married with children." — Ben Carter, [08:05]

What Do You Get for Your Taxes?

• High-tax countries tend to have stronger safety nets: health care, unemployment, pensions.
• Low-tax countries often require out-of-pocket spending for private services.
• Political wrangling focuses on "top marginal rates," but very few people actually pay them.
  • "What's more important is the overall tax burden on middle earners, which most people are." — Ben Carter, [08:55]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "Net nomination has all the marks of an epidemic, so it makes sense to look at it like an infection." — Adam Kacharski, [01:26]
• "So, on the first day, one person downs a pint and puts the video online. They nominate two more people... Over the course of 32 days, if this continues, the number of pints downed will increase exponentially." — Adam Kacharski, [02:38]
• Playful moment: None of the studio staff have actually made a Neknomination video, highlighting the gap between media hype and reality. [03:07–03:23]
• "Money can buy you happiness, but only when you give it to the taxman." — Charlotte McDonald, [06:28]

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Important Timestamps

| Timestamp | Segment/Quote | |------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------| | 00:32 | Introduction to tax and Neknomination topics | | 01:26 | Kacharski compares Neknomination reproduction rate to SARS/flu | | 02:35 | Explanation of exponential spread and generation time | | 03:26 | Reality-check: social outbreaks burn out in small groups | | 04:33 | Income tax rates around the world | | 06:19 | Top tax thresholds and their implications (Denmark/US comparison) | | 07:06 | Maurice Nettley on actual tax burdens (Belgium, Germany, Chile) | | 08:55 | Focus on middle earners; real impact of tax rates |

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Conclusion

This More or Less episode cleverly uses statistics and epidemiology to both demystify a viral online craze and to illuminate the facts behind heated debates on tax rates. With characteristic wit and clarity, the hosts and guests separate myth from reality, providing listeners with both a sense of perspective and clear, data-based insights into trends affecting society.

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Transcript

[A]

This is the short edition of More or Less, first broadcast on the BBC World Service.

[B]

Thank you for downloading from the BBC. For details of our complete range of podcasts and our terms of use, go to bbcworldservice.com podcasts.

[A]

Hello, and welcome to More or less on the BBC World Service. I'm Charlotte MacDonald. Cause I'm the tax man.

[C]

Yeah, I'm the tax man.

[A]

How much to tax the rich is a hot political issue right now, as it was in the 1960s when the Beatles, fabulously rich themselves, railed against high rates in Britain. Now, this week on More or Less, we'll compare tax rates around the world.

[C]

But first, it's the online game where you neck a drink, nominate another person to do the same and film it.

[A]

Neck nomination. Now, this is an online drinking game which is sweeping across the world on social media. It's a disturbing trend which has led to a number of deaths. Thousands of people seem to be taking part in it. The idea is that someone makes a video of themselves drinking, usually downing a pint of beer. Adam Kaczowski is a research fellow of infectious diseases at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, and he decided to do some back of the envelope calculations comparing the spread of the neck nomination game to a disease outbreak.

[D]

NEC nomination has all the marks of an epidemic, so it makes sense to look at it like an infection. And when faced with a new disease outbreak, there's two numbers that epidemiologists use to judge transmission. One of them is the reproduction number of the infection. So this is the average number of secondary cases that a typical infectious person will create. Now, judging by the nominations currently littering my Facebook feed, each nomination creates two or three secondary nominations. So in other words, the reproduction number is between about two or three. And this is similar to what we saw for the 2003 SARS outbreak outbreak and the 1918 influenza pandemic. So the Spanish flu that came after World War I.

[A]

Okay, so for each video online, it's likely to spawn two or three more videos. But there's another factor. How do you work out how quickly it will spread?

[D]

We can do this using something known as a generation time. So this is the average time between one person becoming symptomatic. So in this case, the symptoms would be downing a drink and putting the video online and the time that passes before the person they infected showing symptoms. And again, neck nomination. This value we know because people are given 24 hours to down their drink.

[A]

So bearing that in mind, what might the outbreak look like?

[D]

So, on the first day, one person downs a pint and puts the video online. They nominate two more people to down drinks. On the second day, 24 hours later, there's going to be two pints downed. On day three, four people on day four, eight people. On day five, 16 people. And over the course of 32 days, if this continues, the number of pints downed will increase exponentially. So the whole world, all 7 billion people, after 32 days will be downing drinks and putting the results online.

[A]

Hmm. Well, I haven't made a video now. Ben, our reporter's here. Ben, have you made a neck nomination video?

[C]

No, I haven't.

[A]

Okay, well, let's just ask Tom, the engineer. Tom?

[B]

No.

[C]

What about Rich? He looks like a drinker.

[A]

Yes, that's our editor, rich.

[C]

Certainly not.

[A]

OK, so not all 7 billion have posted videos.

[D]

In reality, there's a limited group of people who are susceptible to an infection. So in the case of net nomination, there's a limited number of people, perhaps a friendship group, who would actually do the activity. And then, of course, if you've been nominated and you've done a drink, you're less likely to do another. So over the course of the outbreak, the number of susceptible people will decrease.

[A]

Now, Adam says if you plot the outbreak on a graph, at first you see the number of cases rising, but then as the number of susceptible people falls, the outbreak begins to die out. Now, the whole thing lasts about two weeks among a friendship group. But how did they catch it in the first place?

[D]

You do wonder whether it's one person who started it and it's just spreading around the world, or is it several people who started their own little ones amongst friends. And actually, this is a common problem we have with epidemics when we see a large number of cases in a certain area. We're interested in whether there are several small outbreaks, whether it's one person who's introduced it and it's spreading. Using the values we have, it's far more likely to be that each one is a very small localised outbreak, each of which burns out very quickly.

[A]

Adam Kacharski. So if you're tired of all these videos in your Facebook news feed, don't worry. They'll be gone soon. And now, as promised, income tax, how much tax should you pay? The question of what's fair has exercised politicians and the rest of us for centuries. And it's a question which is high up the political agenda in a lot of countries Today. In France, President Hollande has come under fire for hitting those earning more than $1.4 million with a 75% tax rate. And in Britain, the top rate has been and still is fiercely fought over. But how far do tax rates vary? Now, Ben Carter is with me.

[C]

Charlotte. If we look at the top rate of tax, according to the accountancy firm PricewaterhouseCoopers, which has crunched the numbers for the G20 nations, there are some stark differences. In Italy, someone earning $400,000 would pay nearly 50% of their total income in tax. But someone on the same salary in Saudi Arabia pays only 3%. In most of these rich nations, you pay between 30 and 45%.

[A]

So they've taken a salary of $400,000, a pretty whopping salary to most of us. But presumably the thresholds vary between countries.

[C]

Yes, and in a way, that's the key point. The PwC figures I just mentioned have taken care of those differences by figuring out the total tax burden by. But if you look at what you have to earn to be on the top tax rate, the differences are massive. In denmark, you pay 60% tax on earnings over $60,000. And in the US, for comparison, the top rate, about 40%, kicks in at around $400,000.

[A]

Poor old Danes.

[C]

Well, perhaps. Although they were ranked the happiest country in the whole world in last year's World Happiness Report.

[A]

So money can buy you happiness, but only when you give it to the taxman. Quite okay, but most of us can only dream of earning that kind of money. What about ordinary earners?

[C]

The tricky thing about all this is that it's actually pretty hard to compare tax rates. Income tax is only one tax. Most of us will pay other kinds of tax, like Social Security. And if we have children, we might get some tax relief. But the plucky statos at the oecd, that's the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, have had a go at comparing average salaries. This is Maurice Netley, their head of tax statistics.

[E]

At the top end of the distribution, we have Belgium, where 43% of earnings are paid in income tax and Social Security contributions. And then we have Germany, where it's 39.9%. The lowest tend to be the countries in other parts of the world. So we have Chile, which is the lowest in the OECD with 7%. Mexico. Mexico is another country with a lower figure that's 9.5%. So these are the sorts of countries that have a lower end of the distribution.

[C]

What Morris went on to explain was in most countries, single workers pay more tax, a lot more tax in some countries than those that are married with children. That 39.9% figure for single Germans drops to 21.3% for someone married with two children.

[A]

And that is because they get a lot of child tax credit. And it's a similar story in the United States and Belgium.

[C]

It is. In fact, Greece is the only country where you actually pay more tax if you are married with children.

[A]

Oh, dear. But Ben, of course, the point of paying taxes is that the government is supposed to provide services for that. So what do you get for your money?

[C]

Well, you're absolutely right. The countries that deduct a lot of tax tend to be the countries that have generous benefits if you're sick or unemployed, and they offer good pensions. In places like Chile, where the tax burden is low, workers have to pay a large amount for things like private healthcare. What's interesting about all this is that although in France and Britain and many other countries the top rate of tax has become a highly contentious political issue, in reality, very, very few people earn enough to be affected by it. What's more important is the overall tax burden on middle earners, which most people are.

[A]

Ok, thanks, Ben. If there are any numbers you'd like us to investigate or explain, do please email us. Our address is moreorlessbc.co.uk and you can always sign up for a free podcast of this program at our website, bbcworldservice.com

[B]

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