WS MoreOrLess: Numbers of the Year part 1.

Summary

Podcast Summary: More or Less – Numbers of the Year, Part 1

Host: Tim Harford (BBC Radio 4)
Guests: Julian Rademeyer (AfricaCheck), Carlos Velalta (UC San Diego)
Original Air Date: December 20, 2014

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Episode Overview

In this special year-end edition of More or Less, host Tim Harford invites notable guests to share and delve into the "Numbers of the Year"—statistics that stood out in 2014 for their strangeness, their impact, or their revelations about the world. The episode features fact-based storytelling and debunking, focusing on the misuse of numbers and the importance of rigorous investigation.

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Segment 1: The Misuse of Tragic Images—375 Alleged Deaths by Boko Haram

Guest: Julian Rademeyer, Editor at AfricaCheck
Key Number: 375
Timestamps: [00:50]–[06:27]

Key Discussion Points

• Origin of the Number

  • A viral image circulated on Nigerian social media allegedly showing the massacre of 375 Christians by Boko Haram ([00:50]).
  • The caption: "Boko Haram burns 375 Christians" atop a photo of charred corpses and masked soldiers ([00:50]).

• Fact-Checking the Claim

  • AfricaCheck traced the photograph using online tools (Google Image Search, comparison sites) and discovered the image dated July 2010 from the Democratic Republic of Congo, 2,000 km from Nigeria ([01:24]).
    • The photo documented a deadly accident where a fuel tanker exploded; dozens killed, many watching a World Cup match ([01:41]).
  • Distinctive details—background roof, soldiers’ and Red Cross officials’ uniforms—helped confirm the true origin ([02:06]).
  • The image had also been reused in false claims elsewhere, e.g., massacres in Nigeria and Myanmar ([02:19]).

  "It's part of a growing problem where you have images stripped of context used for propaganda purposes."
  — Julian Rademeyer ([02:33])

• Broader Trend of Misattribution

  • AfricaCheck encountered multiple misleading viral images, e.g., an alleged Ugandan incident that was actually from the Central African Republic ([02:38]).

• The Reality of Violence in Nigeria

  • While the supposed event in the image was fake, Boko Haram has been responsible for thousands of deaths ([03:32]).
  • It's perplexing, said Rademeyer, that fabrications gain traction when "so many other real massacres... have been documented" ([03:32]).

  "It seems quite bizarre that people go to the lengths of faking a massacre when there's so many other real massacres that have been documented..."
  — Julian Rademeyer ([03:32])

Discussion about the "Real Numbers"

Timestamps: [03:53]–[06:06]

• Estimates of Actual Deaths

  • Data varies depending on the organization:
    • Nigeria's president claimed 13,000 deaths since the insurgency began ([04:13]).
    • Nigeria Social Violence Project (Johns Hopkins): just over 11,000 deaths ([04:22]).
    • Human Rights Watch: approx. 2,000 civilians killed in the first half of 2014 ([04:30]).
    • Amnesty International: 4,000 people killed so far in 2014 ([04:36]).
    • Nigeria Security Tracker: up to 17,500 deaths since May 2011, with 6,700 directly attributed to Boko Haram ([04:45]), and the remainder involving state actors.
  • The "13,000" figure is "broadly correct" if it includes both Boko Haram and security forces ([05:54]).

  "There've been, you know, atrocities on both sides... you have estimates as low as 9,000 and as high as 17,500."
  — Julian Rademeyer ([05:23])

• Role of Nigerian Security Forces

  • Not all violence is by Boko Haram; atrocities are also committed by Nigerian police and army ([06:06]).
    • Cell phone videos exist showing extrajudicial executions by security forces ([06:16]).

  "...Prisoners who've been executed. There have been instances where cell phone video has emerged of Nigerian security forces torturing and killing people that they suspected of belonging to Boko Haram. It's an incredibly messy... situation."
  — Julian Rademeyer ([06:13])

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Segment 2: Phantom Teachers in Mexico—The Mystery of 39,222

Guest: Carlos Velalta, Visiting Fellow, Center for U.S.-Mexican Studies, UC San Diego
Key Number: 39,222
Timestamps: [06:42]–[08:52]

Key Discussion Points

• Discovery of the Number

  • Mexico’s first nationwide elementary education census revealed 39,222 "teachers" listed on the payroll but unrecognized by school staff, students, or administrators ([06:42], [07:18]).
  • Census methodology: Interviewers visited schools with payroll lists from the Ministry of Education and systematically asked school staff if they knew each person on the list ([07:29]).

  "Nobody, absolutely nobody, knew who these persons are."
  — Carlos Velalta ([08:13])

• Scale and Implications

  • Although 39,222 is a strikingly high number, it represents only about 1.5% of Mexico’s elementary teachers ([08:27]).
  • Tim Harford highlights how such "phantom teachers" undermine trust and finances in the educational system ([08:13]).

• Outcome

  • Despite this exposure, whether these salaries were stopped or the payroll corrected is uncertain ([08:41]).

  "Theoretically, of course, in a rational world, the Ministry of Education would have to adjust this payroll, but we don’t know if that happened."
  — Carlos Velalta ([08:41])

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Deceptive Images:

  "The camera never lies. And of course we know that the camera can lie."
  — Tim Harford ([03:13])

• On Statistical Uncertainty in Conflict:

  "It's extremely hard to count the dead in any conflict, particularly civilian deaths. There's a dearth of reliable data and reports..."
  — Julian Rademeyer ([04:01])

• On the Value of Investigation:

  "If you have any numbers you want investigating, please email us at more or [e-mail]."
  — Tim Harford ([08:52])

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Key Takeaways

• Even widely shared images can be misused for propaganda, and careful fact-checking can reveal truth behind viral misinformation.
• Numbers cited in political and media contexts often require deeper scrutiny—especially in conflict and public administration.
• Data transparency and statistical scrutiny are essential for holding institutions accountable and combating misinformation.

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For more fact-checks and data investigations, listen to More or Less or reach out with your own numerical conundrums.

Transcript

[A]

Thank you for downloading the More or Less podcast from the BBC. Statistically proven to be the very best numbers program around. This program was first broadcast on the BBC World Service. Thank you for downloading from the BBC. For details of our complete range of podcasts and our terms of use, go to bbcworldservice.com podcasts hello, you're listening to more or less on the BBC World Service, and I'm Tim Harford. It's that time of year when we ask some of our favourite people to bring you some of the strangest or most striking numbers of 2014. The first person on our list of luminaries is Julian Rademeyer, the editor of the fact checking site AfricaCheck. What was his number of 2014?

[B]

375. That's the number of Christians supposedly murdered by Boko Haram, the militant Nigerian movement, in a massacre earlier this year. And the claim came about through an image, an image that began doing the rounds on social media networks in Nigeria, spread like wildfire. And it showed dozens of charred corpses in the baking heat, soldiers and medics with masks. And across the image was the caption, Boko Haram burns 375 Christians. It was a truly horrific image. And we set about trying to fact check that, trying to track down when this massacre had occurred, where it had occurred, given how much currency that image had gained on social media. And we put the image through various online tools, Google Image search, a couple of basic image comparison websites, and discovered that, in fact, it wasn't of a massacre. And the image had actually been taken four years ago in July 2010, 2000km away from Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congolese. What had happened was that a fuel tank had overturned. Bystanders had rushed to collect fuel leaking out of the tanker and the fuel ignited. There were theories that someone was smoking a cigarette or lit a cigarette and dozens of people were killed. Many of them had gathered there to watch a World cup soccer game. And we set about comparing images, finding images of that particular catastrophe and comparing the details. There was a distinctive roof in the background. There were the uniforms of the soldiers, the Red Cross officials. And we discovered subsequently that that image has been used in a number of other instances, once to supposedly represent the massacre of 500 Christians in Nigeria. It's also been used in Myanmar to supposedly show the slaughter of Muslims by Buddhist monks. And it's part of a growing problem where you have images stripped of context used for propaganda purposes. We've looked at a number of claims like that through the year. One Other example showed what was claim to be a policeman stoning a gay man to death in Uganda. Uganda has extremely homophobic policies in place. That image spread like wildfire. But it had actually been taken in the Central African Republic where soldiers had killed someone in the road and was taken by an Associated Press photographer.

[A]

So, I mean, we, we're told the camera never lies. And of course we know that the camera can lie. Images can be staged, images can be digitally manipulated. But in this case, the image was not manipulated. The image was a true record. It was just a true record of something entirely different being misattributed.

[B]

It was indeed. And what was quite surprising about it is that the Boko Haram insurgency has been linked to thousands of deaths and many, many atrocities. And it seems quite bizarre that people go to the lengths of faking a massacre when there's so many other real massacres that have been documented and attributed to the group.

[A]

So the number here was 375. And that was fictional. So do we know how many people Boko Haram is responsible for killing?

[B]

Well, the numbers vary dramatically and it's extremely hard to count the dead in any conflict, particularly civilian deaths. There's a dearth of reliable data and reports in Nigeria, and there have been accusations of political manipulation of data. Earlier this year, the country's president, Goodluck Jonathan, claimed that 13,000 people had been killed since the start of the Boko haram insurgency in 2002, 2009. And while that number appears to be broadly correct, there are various figures. The Nigeria Social Violence Project, which operates under the auspices of Johns Hopkins University in the United States, has recorded just over 11,000 deaths since the start of the insurgency and includes killings not only by Boko Haram militants, but also by the Nigerian security forces. Human Rights Watch this year estimated that around 2,000 civilians have been killed in the first half of 2014. Amnesty International says 4,000 people have been killed so far this year. And then you have an organization called the Nigeria Security Tracker, which argues that three to five times more people may have been killed than actually reported. And its estimates, which begin in May 2011, now stand at around 17,500. And that includes 6,700 deaths linked directly to Boko Haram and a further figure of close to 11,000 that involves Boko Haram and so called state perpetrators, people from the Nigerian armed forces. And there've been, you know, atrocities on both sides. So somewhere between that, you know, you have estimates of as low as 9,000 and as high as 17,000. 500. When we fact check the claim, we essentially came to the conclusion that Jonathan's 13,000 figure was broadly correct if you include killings by both Boko Haram and the Nigerian security forces.

[A]

Well, that is an important clarification, though. The 13,000 number is reasonable, but it isn't. These murders are not just being carried out by Boko Haram. They're also being carried out by the Nigerian army, the Nigerian police.

[B]

Exactly. And there have been a number of atrocities, some fairly horrific ones that have been attributed to the Nigerian security forces, prisoners who've been executed. There have been instances where cell phone video has emerged of Nigerian security forces torturing and killing people that they suspected of belonging to Boko Haram. It's an incredibly messy and very difficult situation.

[A]

Julian Rademeyer of AfricaCheck from Africa now to Mexico. The next person to give us his number of the year is Carlos Velalta. He's a visiting fellow at the center for U.S. mexican Studies at the University of California in San Diego.

[C]

His number, 39222. This is the number that we got from our new and actually the first time that we conduct a census on education, on elementary education in Mexico at the beginning of this 2014. And this number represents the number of teachers that when the census was being conducted and the interviewers were asking the general directors, other teachers and the students who these persons were, they were actually not known in these schools.

[A]

Hang on, There are nearly 40,000 people receiving teachers salaries while nobody in the schools they allegedly work at has ever heard of them. How on earth was this discovered?

[C]

Very simple. At the beginning of the census, when they were planning on how to conduct the census, the National Institute of Statistics obviously contacted the Ministry of Education. And among the things that the National Institute of Statistics got from the Ministry of Education was the payroll, Basically the list of teachers that receive a salary or a monthly paycheck in each of the schools. At the school level, the surveyors or the interviewers of the National Institute of Statistics, they went through the list systematically and they were asking basically the people in the schools if they knew these individuals. And nobody, absolutely nobody, knew who these

[A]

persons are.39,222 is a big number. But how big? How big, for example, compared to the number of teachers who work in Mexico's elementary school system, you would say, well,

[C]

39,000, 222 is a lot of people. It is. But as a proportion, it's not that big. It's just 1.5%.

[A]

Surely all of these phantom teachers have had their pay stopped immediately, haven't they?

[C]

Theoretically, of course, in a rational world, the Ministry of Education would have to adjust this payroll, but we don't know if that happened.

[A]

Thank you to Professor Carlos Valalta. That, quite frankly, incredible number brings us to the end of Today days, more or less. We'll be back next week with more numbers of the year on the BBC World Service. But if you're worried about going cold turkey, you can get your fix of episodes on our website, bbcworldservice.com more or less. And as ever, if you have any numbers you want investigating, please email us at more or lessbc.co.uk. there are dozens of different podcasts now available from the BBC, including news, documentaries, science, business, arts and sport. For details of them all, go to bbcworldservice.com podcasts.