WS MoreOrLess: Numbers of the Year part 2.

Summary

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More or Less: Numbers of the Year, Part 2

Date: December 27, 2014
Host: Tim Harford
Podcast: BBC Radio 4 / BBC World Service

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Episode Overview

In the second installment of "Numbers of the Year," host Tim Harford invites a range of experts and journalists to reflect on the most memorable, impactful numbers from 2014. Each guest introduces their chosen number, using it as a lens to discuss economic shifts, public perceptions, sports trends, and environmental issues across the globe. The discussion illustrates how numbers, big or small, offer powerful insight into our world and its ongoing changes.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. A Quadrillion – The Scale of Modern Finance

Guest: Dr. Pippa Malmgren, former economic advisor to President George W. Bush
Timestamps: 00:49 – 01:25

• Key Number: Quadrillion (1,000 trillion; 1,000,000,000,000,000)
• Context: Japan’s national debt has exceeded one quadrillion yen. In finance, derivative markets are now estimated at more than a quadrillion dollars.
• Significance:
  • Illustrates the new scale at which modern finance operates.
  • Raises questions about how society copes with and manages numbers of such magnitude.
  • “I think this number is going to come up a lot more often... The Japanese debt now exceeds one quadrillion.” — Pippa Malmgren [01:00]

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2. One Third – Global Perceptions of Progress

Guest: Evan Davis, economist and BBC broadcaster
Timestamps: 01:37 – 05:30

• Key Number: One third (≈33%)
• Data Source: Ipsos Global Trend Survey (32,000 people in 20 countries)
• Insight: Only a third of global respondents believe today’s youth will have a better life than their parents.
• Country Split:
  • Above average optimism: China, India, Brazil, Turkey, Russia, South Africa, South Korea, Japan.
  • Below average: Australia, Italy, Germany, Canada, Britain, Sweden, US, Spain, Belgium, France.
• Interpretation:
  • Optimism concentrated in emerging economies; pessimism in wealthier nations.
  • Reflects a shifting balance of global economic power and associated anxieties.
  • Quote:
    • “People in rich countries think things could only get worse.” — Tim Harford [03:20]
    • “There’s a sort of deep-rooted sense of discontent and detachment from global change. And in the emerging world, very clearly, people are thinking, hey, this is actually beginning to benefit us and our children.” — Evan Davis [03:22]
• Broader View: Perceptions of permanent decline in the West may be skewed by a prolonged downturn. Davis notes how temporary economic slumps can feel permanent:
  • “I think once you've had six or seven years of any trend, everybody just assumes that is permanent. And that could be a little flaw in our thinking...” — Evan Davis [04:30]

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3. 6’3½” – The Growing Height of Goalkeepers

Guest: Bill Edgar, football writer, The Times (London)
Timestamps: 05:45 – 06:39

• Key Number: 6’3½” (1.92m)—the average height of Premier League goalkeepers in 2014
• Comparative Stat: 40 years ago, average top-flight goalkeeper height was 6’0” (1.83m).
• Projection: If the trend continues, by the year 2251, the average goalkeeper would be as tall as the crossbar (2.4m, or 8 feet!).
• Quote:
  • “…by the year 2251, the average keeper would be 8 foot naught inches tall, which is 2.4 meters and also the height of the crossbar. So they’d be at risk of bumping their head on it.” — Bill Edgar [06:19]
• Humorous Take: Tim Harford wonders how speedy a future “Lionel Messi” might be if this growth continues.

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4. 10,000 – The Price of Environmental Damage in Ghana

Guest: Edem Srem, freelance journalist, Ghana
Timestamps: 06:39 – 08:47

• Key Number: 10,000 Ghanaian cedis (approximately $3,000)
• Context: This is the cost of a vessel used for illegal gold mining (“galamsey”) on Ghana’s rivers.
• Findings:
  • Mining causes serious environmental harm: poisons wildlife, ruins drinking water, and affects power generation by reducing water supply to hydroelectric dams.
  • Despite governmental assertions, Srem’s research found illegal mining increasing.
  • The lucrative returns make the practice hard to stop—miners would not earn as much in other jobs.
• Quotes:
  • “These guys need some livelihood to sustain them. But the point is they make so much money so there’s no job that will attract them anymore because they feel they will not earn as much as they are earning from the illegal mining.” — Edem Srem [07:45]
  • "This 10,000 is actually destroying the rivers of Ghana." — Edem Srem [08:42]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Pippa Malmgren: “The Japanese debt now exceeds one quadrillion… Derivative transactions come to more than one quadrillion.” [01:00]
• Evan Davis: “It’s a kind of passing of economic power from an old world to a new world. And what you’re witnessing in 2014 is some of the political and global ructions of that shift.” [03:22]
• Bill Edgar: “…by the year 2251, the average keeper would be 8 foot naught inches tall, which is 2.4 meters and also the height of the crossbar.” [06:39]
• Edem Srem: “This 10,000 is actually destroying the rivers of Ghana.” [08:42]

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Important Segments & Timestamps

| Segment | Timestamp | |--------------------------------------------|--------------| | Quadrillion in finance (Malmgren) | 00:49–01:25 | | Global optimism and generational progress | 01:37–05:30 | | Evolution of football goalkeepers’ height | 05:45–06:39 | | Gold mining’s cost in Ghana (Srem) | 06:39–08:47 |

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Conclusion

This episode demonstrates how numbers—when unpacked—reveal shifting economic realities, societal anxieties, and even sporting evolution. The stories behind these statistics illuminate trends that shape our collective experience, from the scale of global finance and changing attitudes about the future, to environmental and cultural issues on the ground. "Numbers of the Year, Part 2" offers a fresh, accessible perspective on the world in 2014 through the lens of data and personal observation.

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Transcript

[A]

Thank you for downloading the More or Less podcast from the BBC. Statistically proven to be the very best numbers program around. This program was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.

[B]

Thank you for downloading from the BBC. For details of our complete range of podcasts and our terms of use, go to bbcworldservice.com podcasts

[A]

hello, and welcome to More or Less on the BBC World Service. I'm Tim Harford. Today we bring you the second installment of our Numbers of the Year programme when our guests tell us their most memorable number from 2014. And our first number is certainly the biggest. It's brought to you by a former economic advisor to President George W Bush. Her name is Pippa Malmgren.

[C]

My number is a quadrillion.

[A]

That's a big number. A quadrillion is, if I remember, a thousand times a trillion. So why should we be talking about quadrillions?

[C]

Well, I think this number is going to come up a lot more often. It's come up in the last year because the Japanese debt now exceeds one quadrillion. So in economics, we have a practical example of this matter in the financial markets. You know, we talk about regulating the financial markets and you ask, well, how big are they? And the estimate now is that derivative transactions come to more than one quadri.

[A]

Dr. Pippa Malmgren. We're now going to go from that huge number to something a little bit smaller. And it comes from one of our colleagues here at the BBC, the economist and broadcaster Evan Davies.

[D]

Tim, I'm going to take the number one third. Now I will explain why this year has been a very interesting one in public opinion terms. The public have been restive in this country and in a lot of other countries. They've been discontented, they've been turning to populist parties. And I have found myself looking at opinion polls, not just who's up or who's down, but looking at genuine public opinion. And I've been very interested by a Pretty Big Poll, 32,000 people in 20 different countries carried out by Ipsos. It's called their Global Trend Survey. And a third is what I think we might call people who kind of think the world is going well. So here's a question, Tim. To what extent do you feel that today's youth will have had a better or worse life than their parents generation or will it be the same? And a third of the global respondents basically think today's youth will have a better life than their parents. So that's why I've said a third. It's A kind of that is the group. We think the world is getting better. But here's the little interesting bit. In a lot of the countries, half the countries it was above a third and half the countries it was below the third.

[A]

And so which ones?

[D]

Well, what you get is a real sense of what is happening in the world. So these are the ones that were above average, but sort of thought world is getting better. China, India, Brazil, Turkey, Russia, South Africa, South Korea and Japan were at average. And then when you go to the ones that were below average, so see if you can spot the pattern. Australia, Italy, Germany, Canada, Britain, Sweden, the U.S. spain, Belgium, France. And so there are one or two exceptions that I left out there.

[A]

People in rich countries think things could only get worse.

[D]

Yeah, it is basically that. And in a way, I think that tells you why it's in the richer countries, you're seeing populist parties coming out saying, hang on a minute, what is going on here? We don't like what's changing around us. There's a sort of deep rooted sense of discontent and detachment from global change. And in the emerging world, very clearly, people are thinking, hey, this is actually beginning to benefit us and our children. It's just a nice symbol really of where the world is at the moment, that you do have a kind of passing of economic power from an old world to a new world. And what you're witnessing in 2014 is some of the political and global ructions of that shift.

[A]

What interests me there, Evan, is in developing countries, China, India, they are growing very quickly. It must be possible, living in those countries to see people getting richer almost in front of your eyes. So you. I suppose it's not surprising that people think that children are going to be better off than their parents. But in rich countries, it has almost always been the case that children have been better off, at least in material terms, than their parents. Perhaps this generation is the first one for which you might say that that actually isn't true.

[D]

It's possible that we are entering a new era where actually that generational growth is not going to be present. But what is absolutely clear is that if you have a cyclical downturn that lasts two years and then the economy goes back up again in the way economies do. I think it's possible for people to see the long term and think, well, it's a bad couple of years, but in the long term my children will be better off than me. What we're having in the west at the moment is a much longer downturn than we're normally used to. And so once you've been having six or seven years of it, I think it's very difficult for people, even if economists spell it out to them, look, it is going to get better. One day the sun will shine again and we'll all be out there and we'll be have growing economies and it'll all be fine. I think once you've had six or seven years of any trend, everybody just assumes that is permanent. And that could be a little flaw in our thinking, that essentially six years means forever when it comes to how we perceive economic life.

[A]

The BBC's Evan Davies. I hope that no matter what you think about the prospects for the future, the present will be enlivened by a procession of fascinating numbers of the year. And here's one from Bill Edgar, who's a football writer for the Times of London.

[E]

My number for 2014, or rather my height for 2014 is 6 foot 3 and a half. That's 1 meter 92, which is the average height of a Premier League goalkeeper at the moment. Now that compares with 40 years ago when the average height of a top flight goalkeeper was only six foot naught inches. A little under in fact, and that works out at 1.83. Football can only hope that this increase in height that it's seen over the past 40 years doesn't continue because there would be severe problems. The average goalkeeper by the end of this century would be 6 foot 10 inches tall, which is 2.1 meters tall. And by the year 2251, the average keeper would be 8 foot naught inches tall, which is 2.4 meters and also the height of the crossbar. So they'd be at risk of bumping their head on it.

[A]

What a prospect that is. It also makes me wonder about how fast the equivalent of Lionel Messi might be in the year 2251. Now, unlicensed gold mining in Ghana, pumping gravel up from the beds of Ghanaian rivers is causing serious environmental damage. No surprise that the Ghanaian government claims it's eradicating this illegal activity. Edom Srem is a freelance journalist based in Ghana and he's investigated the government's claims. His award winning documentary on the subject recently won the first ever prize for African fact checking. Edem told me about the way gold mining is poisoning wildlife, ruining Ghana's drinkable water and even damaging the country's electricity supply by starving the supply of water to a hydroelectric power station.

[F]

Some of us are not surprised that our major hydroelectric dam is not able to have enough water to generate energy for the nation because most of these river causes are blocked.

[A]

He told me the solution is to stop the mining which is destroying Ghana's rivers. But that's far from easy.

[F]

These guys need some livelihood to sustain them. But the point is they make so much money so there's no job that will attract them anymore because they feel they will not earn as much as they are earning from the illegal mining. So it will be a difficult task to solve this problem.

[A]

Edam's journalism exposed how far from decreasing as the government claimed illegal mining had actually been increasing. So what's his number of the year?

[F]

My number is 10,000. I chose that number because the vessel they put on the river actually post 10,000 Ghana cedis, which will be equivalent to $3,000.

[A]

10,000 sedis, US$3,000. That's the price of one of the boats the gold miners use as they dredge up the riverbeds.

[F]

This 10,000 is actually destroying the rivers of Ghana.

[A]

Edam Srem explaining how 10,000 Ghanaian Sadis buys an environmental disaster. And that's all we have time for in this week's More or Less Like a Firework on New Year's Eve, we'll welcome you into 2015 with a bang when we bring you the third and final instalment of our numbers of the year next time. In the meantime, you can hear more episodes on our website, bbcworldservice.com more or less. And of course, if you have any numbers you want investigating the please email us at more or lessbc.co.uk

[F]

There are

[B]

dozens of different podcasts now available from the BBC, including news, documentaries, science, business, arts and sport. For details of them all, go to bbcworldservice.com podcasts.