WS MoreOrLess: Nuns on the rise

Summary

---

Podcast Summary: More or Less – "Nuns on the Rise"

Host: Tim Harford
Guest Contributors: Hannah Moore, Matt Parker, Dr. Carey Bunks, Sister Gemma Simmons
Date: May 2, 2015
Main Theme: Debunking and contextualizing recent statistics about an apparent resurgence in the number of women becoming nuns in the UK and discussing mathematical strategies in decision-making (specifically, dating).

---

Episode Overview

This episode of "More or Less," hosted by Tim Harford, examines the claim that more British women than ever are becoming nuns, set amidst a general backdrop of declining religious affiliation. The episode uses the nun statistics as a case study in how numbers are reported and interpreted in the media, and then pivots to a mathematical discussion about "optimal stopping" in life decisions, triggered by listener feedback.

---

1. The "Rise" of British Nuns

Media Reports on More Nuns

• Newspapers have claimed a surprise "comeback" for nuns in the UK, with data suggesting a 25-year high in women taking up the habit.

What Do the Numbers Really Say?

• Hannah Moore ("nun correspondent") explains the statistics:
  • In 2009, 15 women entered nun formation.
  • In 2014, 45 women did, so the number has "trebled in five years."
  • Tim Harford (01:18): "So you could fit all last year’s new nuns on a double decker bus… you’d still have room for luggage."
  • While the proportion has soared—from 0.0006% to nearly 0.002% of adult women (01:53)—the actual numbers are extremely small.

Historical and International Context

• Numbers in Decline:
  • The number of new nuns was higher in the 1980s.
  • Total nuns in Great Britain have fallen by a third in 20 years, now around 6,000 (02:16).
• Hannah Moore: "Nuns have been dying or leaving their orders in greater numbers than new nuns are joining up."
• Tim Harford: Seeks international perspective.

Global Trends

• Europe: Numbers are falling.
• Africa: Numbers are rising.
  • 2007: 64,000 nuns; 2013: 69,000 nuns. (02:41)
• Sister Gemma Simmons, Religious Life Institute: Improvements in education for girls/women have led more African women to aspire to leadership and service in the church.
  • Sister Gemma (03:13):

    “You are getting now a cohort of women in Africa who have been better educated and therefore who are aspirational... see possibilities... for service in a whole variety of ways, but also carries with it the possibility of flourishing in ways that marriage and family life doesn't always offer the African woman.”

Is the Pope Francis Effect Responsible?

• Tim Harford (03:51): Asks if the trend is due to Pope Francis’ popularity.
• Hannah Moore (03:58): The uptick in UK nuns predates him; Africa’s rise is unrelated, and overall numbers in the Americas are still falling.

Memorable Moment:

• Tim Harford’s closing pun (04:22):

  “None of you nun puns around here, Hannah.”

---

2. Mathematical Dating Controversy: The Optimal Stopping Problem

Previous Segment Recap

• Brief reference to an earlier episode (Valentine's Day) where Matt Parker discussed the "optimal stopping problem" in dating.

Listener Correction

• Dr. Carey Bunks (05:19):
  • Emailed to point out a mathematical error in Matt Parker's advice.
  • Matt had suggested you should reject the first square root (i.e., 10 out of 100) candidates before picking the next one that's better than any before.
  • Dr. Bunks corrects: The best approach is to sample and reject the first 36% (inverse of the mathematical constant e), not the square root.

    “…the optimal approach is to sample and reject not the first 10, but rather the first 36.” (05:41)

Setting the Record Straight

• Matt Parker (06:41):

  • Accepts correction, explains difference:
    • The "one over e" strategy (reject ~36%) is optimal only if you want the very best and don’t care at all otherwise.
    • The "square root" rule gives a better average result if you care about generally ending up with a good outcome, not just the best.
    • Both methods apply to variants of what's called the "secretary problem."

• Tim Harford (08:48): Appreciates the mathematical depth and correction.

Notable Quotes:

• Matt Parker (07:19):

  “Don’t get me wrong, a big fan of E. It’s one of these numbers like PI in mathematics.”

• Matt Parker (07:39):

  “The method I described is the solution to... if you tweak the problem slightly... and so Dr. Bunk is completely correct for that particular situation... but things have moved on.”

---

3. Episode Highlights & Memorable Moments

• Statistical Literacy & Skepticism:
  • The episode shows how "headline" statistics ("nuns at a 25-year high!") often mask the tiny actual numbers driving those stories.
  • Provides excellent context to avoid misinterpretation, e.g.:

    “Three times not very much, Tim.” – Hannah Moore (01:31)

• Global Perspective on Religious Vocations:
  • Africa is seeing genuine growth, linked to educational and social change.
• Humorous Tone:
  • Avoidance (and breaking) of nun-related puns:

    “I am the best reporter, bar none.” – Hannah Moore (01:04) “You could fit all last year’s new nuns on a double decker bus...” – Tim Harford (01:44)

• Engagement with Listeners:
  • Responsive correction and clarification on a prior segment’s maths.
• Clear Explanations of Complex Maths:
  • The distinction between "finding the very best" and "getting a good average" in life decisions, using the secretary problem as illustration.

---

4. Important Timestamps

• [00:18] Introduction to “nuns on the rise”
• [01:31] Precise numbers: “Three times not very much, Tim.”
• [02:16] Historical downward trend in overall nun numbers
• [02:41] Global trends; Africa vs. Europe
• [03:13] Sister Gemma Simmons on education’s role in nun vocations in Africa
• [03:51] Is Pope Francis influencing trends?
• [04:42] Transition to the maths of dating (optimal stopping problem)
• [05:19] Dr. Carey Bunks’ correction email
• [06:41] Matt Parker’s response and expanded explanation

---

5. Episode Takeaways

• Apparent statistical surges often remain trivial in absolute terms; context matters.
• Global trends can diverge widely—while religious vocations wane in Europe, they grow in Africa due to social change.
• Mathematical problems like “optimal stopping” have multiple interpretations and “correct” solutions vary depending on goals.
• Listener interaction and correction enhance the accuracy and richness of the show.

---

Overall:
The episode is a clever, witty exploration of how statistics shape news narratives, how context is crucial, and how mathematical theory translates to everyday decisions—mixing seriousness with trademark BBC wordplay and warmth.

Transcript

[Narrator]

This is the short edition of More or Less, first broadcast on the BBC World Service.

[BBC Announcer]

Thank you for downloading from the BBC. For details of our complete range of podcasts and our terms of use, go to bbcworldservice.com podcasts

[Tim Harford]

hello and welcome to More or Less on the BBC World Service. I'm Tim Harford. As the general election looms here in the uk, the nation's newspapers are scrutinising what they see as the crucial issue facing the country. A sudden surge in the number of nuns. Sister act how nuns are staging a

[Matt Parker]

surprise comeback in the uk Having none of it.

[Narrator]

Growing numbers of British women take up the habit.

[Tim Harford]

Women becoming nuns hits 25 year high. Our nun correspondent Hannah Moore joins me now. And can we agree right now, Hannah, to avoid terrible puns, I think that's

[Hannah Moore]

what everyone wants, Tim, Although I am the best reporter, bar none. So this story is based on data from the Catholic Church showing that the number of new nuns in England and Wales has trebled in five years.

[Tim Harford]

And that might sound surprising in the context of a more secular society. There are fewer Christians in the UK and the nuns seem to be bucking the trend. So, Hannah, there are three times as many new nuns. Three times what?

[Hannah Moore]

Three times? Not very much. Tim. In 2009, 15 women entered training to become Catholic nuns. That's known technically as formation. Last year, 45 women did.

[Tim Harford]

So you could fit all last year's new nuns on a double decker bus. You can supply your own punchline here, I suppose, if you, if you have one, you'd still have room for luggage.

[Hannah Moore]

Yes. The proportion of adult women deciding to enter training and learn to be a nun each year has soared from 0.0006% to almost 0.002%.

[Tim Harford]

So not only are those numbers difficult to say, they're also very, very small. Give us the context. What's the historical trend?

[Hannah Moore]

Overall, the number of new nuns was higher in the 1980s than it is today. But. But the basic story is that nuns have been dying or leaving their orders in greater numbers than new nuns are joining up. The total number of nuns in Great Britain has fallen by a third in the past two decades and it's now 6,000.

[Tim Harford]

So that's the British perspective. Hannah, what about the trend outside the uk?

[Hannah Moore]

The number of nuns is falling across Europe, but we see a different story in Africa where the number of nuns has increased from 64,000 in 2007 to 69 in 2013.

[Narrator]

I think if you look at Africa, one of the things that's changed in the last 10, 20 years is the access to education for girls and women.

[Hannah Moore]

This is Sister Gemma Simmons. She's the director of the Religious Life Institute at Heythrop College at the University of London in the uk.

[Narrator]

There was a time when it was quite difficult for girls to have equal access to secondary education. And you are getting now a cohort of women in Africa who have been better educated and therefore who are aspirational. And that would be the same thing within the church who see possibilities open to them in the church for an active life, for leadership within the community, for service in a whole variety of ways, but also carries with it the possibility of flourishing in ways that marriage and family life doesn't always offer the African woman.

[Tim Harford]

So is this the Pope Francis effect? You know, fashionable new pope from Argentina, first ever pope from outside Europe, possibly

[Hannah Moore]

in the uk, Although you could argue that the tiny uptick in new trainee nuns was already happening. The rise in the number of nuns in Africa predates Pope Francis ordination in 2013. And the overall trend in the Americas has been downward. So we'll see if Pope Francis reverses that and South American women start getting in the habit.

[Tim Harford]

Oh, none of you non puns around here. Hannah. Hannah Moore, thank you very much. You're listening to More or Less with me, Tim Harford. Loyal listeners may remember Matt Parker, author of Things to Make and do in the Fourth Dimension, dishing out mathematical advice on our program ahead of Valentine's Day this year.

[Matt Parker]

When you're looking for a life partner as you're interviewing people, or I believe dating is what it's commonly called as you're going through the candidates, if you meet a candidate and you assess their qualities and then you reject them later on, it's very hard to go back. And I've changed my mind. It turns out you were the best I'm ever going to do. But on the flip side, if you settle down with someone straight away, you have no idea what the general quality of possible candidates was. So the question is, how many people do you reject to get a sense of the standard? And at what point do you stop rejecting and you start choosing? And that is called the optimal stopping problem.

[Dr. Carey Bunks]

Dear More or less, with regards to your program on the maths of dating, I would like to point out that your guest, Matt Parker, has made a serious error in his mathematical approach to finding the best life partner.

[Tim Harford]

Oh, dear. This is loyal listener Dr. Carey Bunks, who wrote to more or [e-mail] to express his concern.

[Dr. Carey Bunks]

Matt suggested that if you could Date a total of 100 people. You should sample and reject the square root of that number. That's to say the first ten. And then subsequently choose the first one that was better and than any in that first initial group. Unfortunately, his advice is both erroneous and highly suboptimal. In fact, to produce the best results, the sample size should not be the square root, but rather the inverse of the natural number E. That's to say 36%. So for 100 potential dates, the optimal approach is to sample and reject not the first 10, but rather the first 36. I believe Matt would agree that this is not only a lot more fun, but also a superior result. Regards, Dr. Carrie Bunks.

[Tim Harford]

There's no answer to that except to haul Matt Parker back into the studio to explain himself. Matt, you are back here. What do you have to say for yourself?

[Matt Parker]

So you've had a complaint that my description of what is called the secretary problem is apparently suboptimal.

[Tim Harford]

And it's called the secretary problem because it was originally about choosing secretaries. Our loyal listener has complained. Dr. Bunks, Dr. Bunk, debunking you. Has complained that actually you had suggested interviewing and. Or dating the first 10 out of 100. The square root. Correct. Before then choosing the best. The first person who is better than any of that 10.

[Matt Parker]

Yes.

[Tim Harford]

And in fact it is well known that you should be interviewing and. Or dating one over E. What is E?

[Matt Parker]

Yeah, well, don't get me wrong, a big fan of E. It's one of these numbers like PI in mathematics. One over E is about 36, 37%.

[Tim Harford]

Which if you had potentially 100 dates, interview the first, I think 36, 36, 37. And then you pick the first person who comes along who's better than the first 36 or 37. So what have you. What's your excuse?

[Matt Parker]

Dr. Bunk is absolutely correct. That is well known. That is the famous solution to the problem where you interview one e of your candidates. Then pick the next best one. And that was originally published in 1961. So the Secretary problem was being thrown around in the 1950s when hiring secretaries was at an all time high. However, since then research has continued. The method that Dr. Bunk described, the one E. That is the method you use if your goal is to get the best person possible in your range of options. But you don't care what you get if you don't get them. So it's all or nothing. The method I described is the solution to. If you tweak the problem slightly to B. I want to get the best person average. And so you go, look, I'd love the best person, but if I don't get the best person, I'm pretty happy with the second best as long as I get the best person on average. And so Instead of assigning 100% to the best person and zero to everyone else, you assign them weighted values on how good they are. And so Dr. Bunk is completely correct for that particular situation. If we were living half a century ago, that would be the best solution. But things have moved on.

[Tim Harford]

Well, Matt Parker, thank you very much. You are nothing if not thorough and nothing if not recent in your use of research. Thank you. And thank you also to our loyal listener, Carey Bunks. If you'd like to send a comment or question, please do. We love hearing from you. Our email address is more or lessbc.co.uk and you can get a download of this program and previous editions at our website, BBC.com more or less

[Hannah Moore]

there are

[BBC Announcer]

dozens of different podcasts now available from the BBC, including news, documentaries, science, business, arts and sports. For details of them all, go to bbcworldservice.com podcasts.