WS MoreOrLess: The Ignorance Test

Summary

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Podcast Summary: WS MoreOrLess – The Ignorance Test

Podcast: More or Less (BBC Radio 4)
Host: Ruth Alexander
Guest: Hans Rosling, Professor of International Public Health
Date: April 11, 2015
Episode Focus: Debunking global development misconceptions via the "Ignorance Project" test.

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Overview

In this episode of "More or Less," host Ruth Alexander sits down with Hans Rosling, renowned for debunking myths in international development. Rosling presents his "Ignorance Test," a series of questions assessing public knowledge about global development indicators. Through the test, they explore why widespread ignorance persists regarding global progress, and what dangers these misconceptions pose in politics, business, and everyday decisions.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Ignorance Project and Gapminder

• Purpose: Hans Rosling and his organization Gapminder use representative surveys to assess what people know (and don't know) about the world, particularly in health, poverty, and demographics.
• Finding: "Most people do badly." (Ruth Alexander, [00:34])

2. The Ignorance Test: Three Questions

a) Measles Vaccination Rates

• Question: What proportion of one-year-olds worldwide receive the measles vaccine?
  • Choices: 20%, 50%, 80%
• Host’s Guess: 50%
• Correct Answer: 83%
  • "Aid works here. Governments together with Bill and Melinda Gates foundation...get the important vaccines out." (Hans Rosling, [04:49])

b) Number of Children in the World by 2100

• Question: Will the number of under-15 children by 2100 be 2, 3, or 4 billion?
• Host’s Guess: 3 billion
• Correct Answer: 2 billion
  • "The number of children have stopped increasing...the biggest event in the history of mankind that the number of children stopped increasing." (Hans Rosling, [03:39]-[04:25])

c) Extreme Poverty Trends

• Question: Has the proportion of people in extreme poverty doubled, stayed the same, or halved over the last 20 years?
• Host’s Guess (correct): Halved
  • "The proportion of people in extreme poverty has halved over the last 20 years." (Hans Rosling, [03:07])

3. Why Are We So Wrong About the World?

• Educational Lag: Our views are out of date.
  • "They were told how it was when their teachers went to university." (Hans Rosling, [06:12])
  • "The answers you give is as the world was more or less 20, 30 years ago. There is still the notion that there is a developing world out there." (Hans Rosling, [06:18])
• Danger of Dichotomies: The world is no longer simply divided into "developed" and "developing" countries.
  • "They put Brazil and Somalia in one box and call it developing world...Most people in the world live somewhere in between." (Hans Rosling, [06:18]-[07:04])

4. Preconceived Notions Among Experts

• World Economic Forum Example: Even global leaders, business professionals, and economic experts perform poorly on the test.
  • "When I asked the chimps in the zoo, 33% got it right...with the vaccines like you, only 18% got it right. And what is severe with this? When you score as a group worse than random, it means you have preconceived ideas." (Hans Rosling, [05:23]-[05:53])
• Best Performers: CEOs of big companies.
  • "That's painful for a Swedish tax loving public health professor to admit...if you run a big company, you really have to understand the world." (Hans Rosling, [07:39])

5. The Danger of Global Ignorance

• Misplaced Investments:
  • "The first problem is that you will place your money wrongly. Whether that money is your pension fund or whether it's your development aid, you will put the money in the wrong place." (Hans Rosling, [08:21])
• Missed Opportunities:
  • "If you have a company, you don't see the opportunities where you can sell things." (Hans Rosling, [08:33])
• Social and Economic Impacts:
  • "If you want a job, if you want nice pension, if you want to sell your products, you know, and you want peace in the world, you have to know how the world is." (Hans Rosling, [08:40])

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Progress:
  • "I consider this one of the biggest event in the history of mankind that the number of children stopped increasing. That has been completely missed...by media, by all big mighty BBC has never told its listeners that the number of children have stopped increasing." (Hans Rosling, [04:17])
• On Outdated Views:
  • "There's no upgrading mechanism. There is still the notion that there is a developing world out there." (Hans Rosling, [06:18])
• On Dangers of Ignorance:
  • "It's like a toxic combination of arrogance and ignorance that support each other." (Hans Rosling, [08:00])
• On Global Middle:
  • "Most people in the world...have two child families, they get vaccinated, they have food for the kids, they have a light bulb and they are working hard to get the washing machine." (Hans Rosling, [07:00])

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Important Segments & Timestamps

• Introduction & Context: [00:18]–[01:00]
• Ignorance Test Questions: [01:01]–[03:17]
• Answers & Explanations: [03:18]–[05:10]
• Why Misconceptions Persist: [06:00]–[07:04]
• Consequences of Ignorance: [07:11]–[08:48]

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Resources Shared

• Gapminder: gapminder.org – For global development data and interactive charts
• Hans Rosling’s Talks: BBC Richer World and other resources highlighted

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Transcript

[Ruth Alexander]

This is the short edition of More or Less, first broadcast on the BBC World Service.

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Thank you for downloading from the BBC. For details of our complete range of podcasts and our terms of use, go to bbcworldservice.com podcasts

[Ruth Alexander]

hello and welcome to More or Less on the BBC World Service. I'm Ruth Alexander. This week I find myself shifting uncomfortably in my chair, being quizzed by Hans Rosling, a professor of international public health who's perhaps best described as a kind of international development myth buster. He started the Ignorance Project to investigate what people know and don't know about the world. He and his organisation Gapminder, use surveys to ask representative groups of people simple questions about key aspects of global development. Most people do badly. So Hans asked me three questions from his Ignorance test. See if you can do any better than I did.

[Hans Rosling]

The first one is about vaccines of children. The most important vaccine is the well established measles vaccines, which is enormously important, especially for poor children that are malnourished because for them, measles kill them. Now, what is the proportion of all one year olds in the world that have got the measles vaccine? Is it 2 out of 10, 5 out of 10 or 8 out of 10? In other words, is it a smaller part of the kids? Is it half of the kids or is it most of the kids?

[Ruth Alexander]

I'd say it's five in every ten. 50%.

[Hans Rosling]

Half, you think? Okay, the next question is about the number of children in the world. So it's not about children, it's about what young couples do in the bedroom.

[Ruth Alexander]

Okay.

[Hans Rosling]

When I was born, 1948, there were less than 1 billion children below 15 years of age in the world. Since then it has more than doubled. And at the turn of the century, there were 2 billion children in the

[Ruth Alexander]

world in a short space of time.

[Hans Rosling]

Now, the best projections we have from the population specialist in the United nations, they have estimated how many children there will be in the world by the end of this century. Do they say that the increase will continue so it will be 4 billion? Do they say the increase will be slower and there will be 3 billions? Or do they say, no, the number of children have stopped increasing. There will only be 2 billion at the end of this century.

[Ruth Alexander]

I think there will be more, but it won't increase at the same rate. There'll be 3 billion at the end of the century.

[Hans Rosling]

Thank you. Last question is about money. Has the proportion of the world population that are desperately poor in extreme poverty during the last 20 years, has that Doubled. Has the proportion remained the same or has it halved?

[Ruth Alexander]

I think there are fewer now.

[Hans Rosling]

Thank you. So the last question, you were right. The proportion of people in extreme poverty has halved over the last 20 years.

[Ruth Alexander]

That's excellent.

[Hans Rosling]

And the number of children in the world, you were wrong. There's 2 billion children. And it's not foreseen to be more children because they will indeed increase in Africa. But the number of children are decreasing in Europe and in Asia.

[Ruth Alexander]

Even though the world's population is forecast to increase from 7 billion at the moment to 9 billion.

[Hans Rosling]

9 billion by mid century, by end century, 11 billion. But that is because of the fill up effect. We already now have 4 billion below age 30. If they grow up and they have one child each, each couple, two children on average, then you will have 4 billions between 30 and 60 and 4 billions below. Then you have eight. And then you have the two older groups with 2 billion. That's 10 billions. That's where we will end up, perhaps 11 if we add 1 billion. For longer life. The breaking distance of a population growth is 70 years. Today there is about 2.4 children per woman in the world. Now I consider this one of the biggest event in the history of mankind that the number of children stopped increasing. That has been completely missed by. Not by you, by media, by all big mighty BBC has never told its listeners that the number of children have stopped increasing. And the first question about measles vaccination, you also got it wrong. It's 83% to get vaccinated.

[Ruth Alexander]

83%.

[Hans Rosling]

Yes. Aid works here. Governments together with Bill and Melinda Gates foundation gets together with UNICEF and this organization GAVI and get the important vaccines out. And mothers, I can tell you, in the poorest countries in Africa, they demand this because they know what measles is. It kills their children. But now I'll give you the worst of this. I had the opportunity to lecture to the experts that talk in World Economic Forum in Davos, that highest level of economists, you know, corporate sector and politicians meeting. And I asked them these questions and they answered more or less like you, 38% got it right. With poverty, when it was the children, only 25% got it right. But when I asked the chimps in the zoo, 33% got it right. And with the vaccines like you, only 18% got it right. And what is severe with this? When you score as a group worse than random, it means you have preconceived ideas.

[Ruth Alexander]

You'd think if you're at Davos So you know about the world. Why are so many of us getting so many of these questions wrong?

[Hans Rosling]

I think it's very simple. They are expert in their area and the school. They were told. But they were told how it was when their teachers went to university.

[Ruth Alexander]

So this is why we have these preconceived ideas, because we were told about the world when we were young and we just haven't moved on.

[Hans Rosling]

Yes. And the answers you give is as the world was more or less 20, 30 years ago, there's no upgrading mechanism. There is still the notion that there is a developing world out there. They put Brazil and Somalia in one box and call it developing world.

[Ruth Alexander]

And actually they're very different countries in terms of how advanced they are, 24

[Hans Rosling]

fold different income per person. It's that strange dichotomy dividing the world into two type of countries which no longer exist. Most people in the world live somewhere in between. They have two child families, they get vaccinated, they have food for the kids, they have a light bulb and they are working hard to get the washing machine. That's where the people of the world live. But that's not communicated.

[Ruth Alexander]

How dangerous is it that these preconceived notions are so entrenched in so many of us?

[Hans Rosling]

Obviously it must be very dangerous since the bank sector and the corporate sector pay me and Gapminders so much to come and teach their staff. Because those who invest money and who manage pension funds, they know where money should go to get a return on capital. Today West Europe has a return of capital of 1 to 2%, whereas Africa has 4 to 5% and Asia even more so.

[Ruth Alexander]

Banks and businesses, they score better in your ignorance test.

[Hans Rosling]

The best group I have found is the CEOs of the biggest companies. And that's painful for a Swedish tax loving public health professor to admit. It doesn't come easy. But if you run a big company, you really have to understand the world. I note how big companies in Europe don't want to be European companies any longer. They want to be global companies and they see the big markets out there. This not understood in West Europe and North America. It's like a toxic combination of arrogance and ignorance that support each other.

[Ruth Alexander]

And what harm does that do? If we don't understand what's going on with the world, what problems are going to arise?

[Hans Rosling]

The first problem is that you will place your money wrongly. Whether that money is your pension fund or whether it's your development aid, you will put the money in the wrong place. The other is if you have a company, you don't see the opportunities where you can sell things. So it means if you want a job, if you want nice pension, if you want to sell your products, you know, and you want peace in the world, you have to know how the world is.

[Ruth Alexander]

Hans Rosling. You can find out more about the world from the wonderful videos and graphs at Hans website gapminder.org and you can see his eye opening lecture on how to beat Ebola by going to the website BBC.com richerworld do please keep your comments and ideas coming to us at more or lessbc.co.uk and you can subscribe to our podcast at our website BBC.com more or less.

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