WS MoreOrLess: Will Berlin see a sub-two-hour marathon?

Summary

Podcast Summary: More or Less – “Will Berlin see a sub-two-hour marathon?”

BBC Radio 4 – October 6, 2014
Host: Wesley Stevenson
Guests: Ben Carter, Mark Milde, Dr. Ross Tucker, Hugh Jones

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Episode Overview

This episode explores the recent breaking of the men's marathon world record by Kenyan runner Dennis Kimetto at the Berlin Marathon and investigates the question: will a sub-two-hour marathon ever be achieved—and if so, is Berlin the place for it? The hosts break down the factors that have contributed to Berlin’s reputation for record-setting, examine the current state of elite marathon running, and discuss expert projections for when (or if) the two-hour barrier might fall.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Experiencing Marathon Pace Firsthand

• [00:13] The episode opens with co-host Ben Carter attempting to run a single kilometre at Kimetto's world-record pace (2:54/km).
  • Ben Carter: “I just cannot believe that it's possible to do one kilometre, never mind 42 kilometres at this pace.” (00:47)
• This segment sets the tone for the episode: sub-two-hour marathon pace is daunting even over short distances for average runners.

2. The Berlin Marathon – The World Record Factory

• Mark Milde (Race Director) recounts the growth of the Berlin Marathon:
  • Started with 284 runners in 1974, now over 30,000 participants (02:22).
• Why Berlin?
  • Flat course with minimal corners
  • Near-perfect weather (temperatures usually between 12–18°C, little wind, overcast skies)
  • Surface: Asphalt is easier on joints than concrete (03:10).
  • Wesley Stevenson: “Berlin is good because the course is extremely flat… there's also little wind.” (03:10)
• Berlin has hosted the last six men’s marathon world records as of 2014.

3. The Golden Age of Marathon Runners

• Dr. Ross Tucker (Exercise Physiologist):
  • "There are seven or eight men who have a viable, realistic shot at breaking a record." (03:55)
  • It's an era with unprecedented depth and talent in elite marathoning, particularly among East African runners.
• Notable runners discussed:
  • Haile Gebrselassie (legend nearing retirement)
  • Wilson Kipsang (previous record holder)
  • Dennis Kimetto (current record breaker at age 30)

4. Professionalization & Aspiration in East Africa

• Hugh Jones (1982 London Marathon winner, course measurer):
  • “Now… athletes are almost a different class of people in East Africa… people aspire to that. Any kid running to and from school… latches onto a training group and climbs the ladder.” (05:09)
  • Big races and sponsorships have made marathon running a viable professional path in Kenya and Ethiopia.

5. Race Tactics: Why Berlin Advantages the World Record

• Ross Tucker:
  • Fewer elite competitors vying for the win can create more consistent pacing—perfect for fast times.
    • In contrast, London’s larger elite field leads to tactical racing, with surges that disrupt records (05:58).
  • “What you need…is a very consistent, relentless pace… and London doesn’t lend itself to that. The optimum setup… is to have one or two guys who are committed to going for the world record… London actually pays for its own strength, sometimes with slower times.” (05:58–06:53)

6. The Sub-Two-Hour Marathon: When, Not If?

• Roger Bannister and the Four-Minute Mile analogy (07:01):
  • The sub-2 marathon is seen as a symbolic boundary, much like the four-minute mile.
• Ross Tucker’s Prediction:
  • “If [progress] continued as it has for the last five years, we would see a sub-two-hour marathon in about 15 to 20 years from now. But I don’t expect that to happen. …I think it will probably take double that, if at all.” (07:23–08:29)
  • He predicts that improvement rates will slow as the talent pool nears its limit.
• Hugh Jones’s Outlook:
  • “The world record has come down three minutes since 1998... So if it’s going to come down another three minutes, I would have thought it’s going to take at least that long.” (08:34)

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Notable Quotes

• Ben Carter: “I just cannot believe that it's possible to do one kilometre, never mind 42 kilometres at this pace.” (00:47)
• Mark Milde: “Berlin has pretty flat course with not so many corners. In late September we have very close to ideal running conditions… we are running on asphalt. So… less problems with their joints when running on asphalt and on concrete.” (02:34–03:10)
• Ross Tucker: “There are seven or eight men who have a viable, realistic shot at breaking a record.” (03:55)
• Hugh Jones: “…athletes are almost a different class of people in East Africa… people aspire to that.” (05:09)
• Ross Tucker: “…the optimum setup to break a world record is to have one or two guys who are committed to going for the world record… London actually pays for its own strength, sometimes with slower times.” (06:05)
• Ross Tucker: “If it continued as it has for the last five years, we would see a sub-two-hour marathon in about 15 to 20 years from now. But I don’t expect that to happen.” (08:15)
• Hugh Jones: “…if it’s going to come down another three minutes, I would have thought it’s going to take at least that long.” (08:34)

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:13–00:56: Ben Carter tries to run marathon pace; incredulity at elite speed
• 01:06–03:22: Mark Milde explains Berlin Marathon's history and course advantages
• 03:55–04:40: Ross Tucker and Hugh Jones discuss the depth in current marathon fields
• 05:09–05:36: Hugh Jones on East African runners’ rise and professionalization
• 05:58–06:53: Ross Tucker dissects race-day tactics and the difference between Berlin and London
• 07:01–08:29: Experts debate the likelihood and timeline for a sub-two-hour marathon

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Conclusion

The episode provides a lively, statistics-rich discussion on why Berlin has become the world’s fastest marathon, what has contributed to recent record-breaking, and the possibility of running 26.2 miles in under two hours. While Berlin’s flat course, ideal weather, and asphalt surface make it the most likely venue, the experts agree that, although rapid progress marks this “golden age,” breaking the two-hour barrier may take decades rather than years—despite the dreams and drive of a new generation of marathoners.

Transcript

[A]

Thank you for downloading from the BBC. For details of our complete range of podcasts and our terms of use, go to bbcworldserveys.com podcasts

[B]

Go on, Ben. Go, go, go. Keep going. Hello, I'm Wesley Stevenson and you're listening to More or Less on the BBC World Service. And Ben Carter here has been trying to run a kilometre in 2 minutes and 54 seconds. Because that was the speed that Kenyan Dennis Komoto ran each kilometre when he won the Berlin Marathon and broke the men's world record at the end of September. Now we're in Regent's park in London, which is a beautiful setting, but how did you do, Ben? You don't sound too well.

[A]

I'm not well, I got nowhere near it, Wes. I just cannot believe that it's possible to do one kilometre, never mind 42 kilometres at this pace.

[B]

I think we better go back to the studio. We're back in the studio and Ben has finally caught his breath.

[A]

Just about. Gosh, Wes, I'm never doing that again.

[B]

Don't worry, Ben, I won't make you run again. But to a man who really can run. In Berlin last Sunday, Kenyan runner Dennis Komoto set a new world record for the men's marathon. He covered the 26.22 mile course, or 42.2 kilometers in 2 hours, 2 minutes and 57 seconds, which broke the previous mark by 26 seconds. So the question that people are now asking is, can we get a sub two hour marathon?

[A]

Well, Wes, if it's going to happen, it's probably going to happen in Berlin. The last six world records have all been broken there. The race has been going for 40 years and is currently organized by a man called Mark Milder, who's been the race director since 2003. When he took over from his father

[C]

in 1974, we had 284 runners and it was organized and run in the woods of Berlin. So it was rather small race. And in 1981 it was moved to the streets of the city. And from then on the race started to grow from 3,000 participants to more than 30,000. And in 2003 it was the last race of my father as a race director. And then when he retired, I took over his position as the race director of the Berlin Marathon.

[B]

And from these humble beginnings, the Berlin Marathon has turned into a key event in the marathon's calendar. But what qualities does it possess that enable competitors to run such quick times?

[C]

Berlin has pretty flat course with not so many corners. In late September we have very close to ideal running conditions. In respect of weather, there is not much wind. Temperatures are in the range of 12 to 18 degrees Celsius, and the overcast skies is helpful. Another advantage of the Berlin course is that we are running on asphalt. So compared to concrete, this seems to be helpful. We hear from runners that they have less problems with their joints when running on asphalt and on concrete.

[B]

Okay, Berlin is good because the course is extremely flat. It's actually flatter than any of the other big marathons such as London, Frankfurt, New York or Boston. And there's also little wind.

[A]

And it's also held around the same date in September every year. The average temperature in Berlin in September is 15 degrees, which is plenty perfect for marathon running. Experts say that this 10 to 16 degree window is the optimum for running quick times.

[B]

These facts have been true almost since the Berlin Marathon began. But the spate of world records being broken at this event only really started in 2003. So why the sudden improvement?

[A]

Of course, it may just be chance, a clustering of results. But are there other factors at play?

[D]

I think when you look at men's marathoning at the moment, one of the most remarkable things, other than the fact the record is going, is that there are so many potential record breakers. I mean, there are seven or eight men who have a viable, realistic shot at breaking a record.

[A]

Dr. Ross Tucker is an exercise physiologist and a high performance sports consultant at the Sports Science Institute of South Africa. As he points out, we are in something of a golden age of marathon runners. At 41, the legendary Ethiopian Haile Gabriel Selassie is in the dying embers of his career.

[B]

At 32, Kenyan Wilson Kipsang set the previous world record in Berlin in 2013.

[A]

And then at 30 years old, the ambassador for the new generation is this year's record breaker, Dennis Cometo.

[B]

One man who knows a thing or two about marathons is Hugh Jones. He won the London Marathon in 1982 in a now seemingly pedestrian 2 hours, 9 minutes and 24 seconds. Hugh is now secretary of the association of International Marathon and Distance Races. In fact, he measured the Berlin course two days before Dennis Kimetto made history. He thinks that big appearance fees, the prize money and the overall profile of marathon races today means a lot of barriers to marathon running have been broken

[E]

down in Kenya and Ethiopia. Certainly it's seen as a career. You would never have thought that in the days of Abe Bekela or Kip Kaina. Now it is. And there's athletes are almost a different class of people in East Africa, they're a category by themselves, if you like, and people aspire to that. Any kid running to and from school or whatever sees that and latches onto a training group and climbs the ladder.

[A]

But there are a lot of marathons staged across the world and athletes can't run them all. So race organisers have to compete to attract the best runners to run their race. Like most marathons, Berlin doesn't have an endless pot of gold to pay appearance fees. The only marathon that does is London. But Ross Tucker thinks if you're a race organiser, less can be more.

[D]

If you have too many strong, talented athletes in one race like London does, they get to halfway on course for a world record. But now suddenly it becomes a tactical battle because no one wants to sacrifice themselves to pull four other potential world record breakers towards the line. I can recall a couple of London races where athletes have surged in the middle of the race from 25ks to try and lose their rivals, and they've slowed down and it goes fast, slow, fast, slow, and then the record disappears. Because what you need and what we saw on Sunday is a very consistent, relentless pace where you're just going to hit the same splits kilometer after kilometer. And London doesn't lend itself to that. The optimum setup to break a world record is to have one or two guys who are committed to going for the world record, who are willing to work together and then you just set the race up around those two. London actually pays for its own strength, sometimes with slower times.

[B]

So given all this, can we get the perfect conditions, the right race, the right number of runners and get that sub to our marathon?

[A]

The sub two hour marathon is really the four minute mile of our day, as there was before Roger Bannister broke that record in 1954. There's been a big debate about whether or not it's possible to run a marathon in less than two hours. Ross Tucker says even assembling the best fields on a regular basis doesn't mean the magic two hour barrier will be broken anytime soon.

[D]

Ten years ago, the world record was minutes slower and we've seen, especially the last five or six years, not quite unprecedented improvements, but the depth of the improvements. There are seven or eight guys who realistically can break the record. So we're in a golden generation for marathon running. In the midst of all these records falling, it would be foolish to say, oh, we won't see a two hour marathon because you'll be shown up within a decade. However, I do think that the current improvements that we've seen can be explained by the fact that so many of these young East Africans are now attacking the marathon. There's a new mindset, there's an aggression about it that has to level off at some point because the population that is competing in marathons at some stage will pretty much max out. So I do think what will happen is that these 20 to 30 second improvements that we've seen will slow down and will become 10 to 15 second improvements. If it continued as it has for the last five years, we would see a sub to our marathon in about 15 to 20 years from now. But I don't expect that to happen. I may be proven wrong, I hope I am. But I think it will probably take double that, if at all.

[B]

But what about the man who won the London Marathon in 1982, Hugh Jones? What does he think?

[E]

The world record has come down three minutes since 1998, so that's 15 years, 15, 16 years. So if it's going to come down another three minutes, I would have thought it's going to take at least that long.

[B]

Hugh Jones and of course, the super fit Ben Carter. Perhaps we'll come back to Hugh and Ross in 2034 to see how those predictions are coming along. If there are any numbers you'd like us to check or explain, do please email us at more or lessbc.co.uk, and you can download this program and many others for free at our website, bbcworldservice.com

[A]

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