WS MoreOrLess: Wine shortage?

Summary

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More or Less: "Wine Shortage?"

BBC Radio 4 – December 21, 2013
Host: Tim Harford

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Episode Overview

This episode of "More or Less" dives into the widely published claims of a global wine shortage made in late 2013, scrutinizing the numbers behind the headlines. Host Tim Harford investigates the real story behind news reports and examines how statistical narratives can be misleading. The episode also takes a quick analytical detour into the supposed pivotal role of Christmas football fixtures in the English Premier League.

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Key Discussion Points

1. The Global Wine Shortage Panic

• Origin of the Story (00:18 – 01:37)

  • A report from the US financial firm Morgan Stanley warned of a global wine shortage.
  • News outlets worldwide reported the alarming claim, leading to widespread concern as the holiday season approached.

• On-the-Ground Reality Check (00:58 – 01:33)

  • Reporter Charlotte MacDonald checked local shops and found no evidence of a shortage.

  • Wine shop employees and customers expressed confusion about the alleged shortage, observing shelves fully stocked.

    "Completely fully stocked. We've got an entire cellar full of champagne."
    — Wine shop employee [01:07]

    "I think there's plenty of wine to be had."
    — Customer [01:09]

2. Deconstructing the Hype

• Media Sensationalism (01:37 – 02:57)

  • Felix Salmon, Reuters finance blogger, notes the story relied on a single report intended to benefit an Australian wine company’s stock.

  • Most media copied headlines and data verbatim without critical review.

    "Most of the news stories didn't even read the report. They just read the headline which said 'global wine shortage,' and they just copy and pasted the numbers from the report into their little scary ready set, panic articles."
    — Felix Salmon [02:26]

• Statistical Manipulation in the Report (03:08 – 03:34)

  • The Morgan Stanley graph suggested consumption outstripped production by ending data at 2012—omitting the improved 2013 harvest.
  • Official data from the Organization Internationale de la Vigne et Duvain (OIV) showed 2013 wasn't a year of shortage.

• Expert Insight (03:34 – 04:49)

  • OIV Director General Federico Castellucci clarified that there had been a brief shortage from 2007–2012 but not in 2013.

    "No, there's not a global wine shortage unless everybody cheers up again and starts drinking in a better way. There is enough wine to satisfy everybody."
    — Federico Castellucci (OIV) [04:40]

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3. What Actually Happened?

• The Real Market Situation (04:49 – 05:33)

  • Industry insiders largely dismissed the shortage claim.

  • Wine-producing land in countries like France and Spain was selling for less than the cost of planting vines—hardly an indicator of scarcity.

  • Global supply was bolstered by reserves and surpluses ("the wine lake" in the EU).

  • Some short-term price increases did occur for bulk wine, but bottle consumers saw little effect.

    "The price of wine producing land is actually incredibly low."
    — Felix Salmon [05:28]

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4. Football Fixtures: The Christmas Crunch

• Debunking Fixture Myths (06:49 – 08:51)

  • Popular belief holds that Christmas matches are pivotal for Premier League outcomes.

  • Statistician Ben Carter reviewed a decade of results: only twice did Christmas games decisively impact final standings.

    • 2011/12: The title outcome shifted due to Christmas match results.
    • 2004/05: Qualifying for the Champions League was affected.

    "The outcome of the title was affected just once in the 2011–2012 season."
    — Ben Carter [07:03]

• Holiday Overachievers (08:41)

  • Tottenham Hotspur notably performed better than average over the festive period—a rare statistical outlier.

    "They [Tottenham Hotspur] averaged nearly half a point more per game over Christmas than enjoying the season overall."
    — Ben Carter [08:43]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Tim Harford on media frenzy:

  “News media organisations across the world reported this, so surely it must be true. But loyal listener Benoit Hubert from Australia is suspicious and so am I.”
  [01:37]

• Felix Salmon on reality vs report:

  "...if you went down to Spain or France, you would find a lot of vineyards which were for sale for less than the cost of planting the vines... evidence that there's no shortage of wine at all."
  [04:54]

• Federico Castellucci sets the record straight:

  "There is enough wine to satisfy everybody."
  [04:49]

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Important Timestamps

• 00:18: Episode opening and the “wine shortage” claim introduction
• 01:04 – 01:33: Reporter finds no shortage in stores
• 02:01 – 02:57: Felix Salmon explains the roots of the panic
• 03:24 – 03:40: Analysis of the Morgan Stanley report’s missing data
• 04:18 – 04:49: OIV director's clarification on wine reserves and 2013 status
• 04:54 – 05:33: Land prices contradicting shortage narrative
• 06:49 – 07:53: Ben Carter’s analysis of Christmas football fixtures
• 08:41: Tottenham Hotspur’s Christmas performance

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Summary

The episode concludes that there was no real global wine shortage in 2013. The scare was rooted in misinterpreted and sensationalized data, perpetuated by media headlines rather than careful analysis. Tim Harford and his guests highlight the necessity of skepticism and proper context when confronted with dramatic statistics. Additionally, listeners learn that pivotal Christmas football fixtures—a staple sports myth—rarely decide the fate of the Premier League, with only rare exceptions making a difference.

This episode’s combination of statistical scrutiny and accessible storytelling makes it both a celebration of facts and a reminder to look beyond the headlines.

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Transcript

[A]

This is the short edition of More or Less first broadcast on the BBC World Service.

[B]

Thank you for downloading from the BBC. For details of our complete range of podcasts and our terms of use, go to bbcworldservice.com podcasts

[C]

hello and welcome to More or Less on the BBC World Service. I'm Tim Harford. This week I'll be running my slide rule over the end of year football fixtures. But first, I'm sorry to break the news to you, especially since I know some of you will be celebrating Christmas, but I'm afraid there's no wine left.

[A]

The US financial services firm Morgan Stanley has warned of a global wine shortage.

[C]

Awful, awful news. I sent our reporter Charlotte MacDonald out to try to snap up the last few bottles for the More Or Less Christmas bash.

[A]

I'm just at a wine shop. I was expecting the shelves to be completely empty, but they don't seem to be.

[C]

Oh, no.

[D]

Completely fully stocked. We've got an entire cellar full of champagne.

[A]

So do you think there's a global wine shortage?

[E]

I think there's plenty of wine to be had.

[A]

I'm a little bit perplexed, if I'm honest with you. I've been to a few different places now and quite a lot of wine. Just gonna ask a few people coming out some of these shops if they've had any problems.

[E]

I walk to the local shops, saw the wine I wanted and purchased it.

[A]

Strange. But there's a global wine shortage.

[E]

Not in my local shop. Hmm.

[C]

News media organisations across the world reported this, so surely it must be true. But loyal listener Benoit Hubert from Australia is suspicious and so am I. I looked around for the best qualified person to help answer this question.

[E]

I love wine. It's a wonderful, delicious, pleasurable drink. I drink it as often as I can.

[C]

This is Felix Salmon, finance blogger for Reuters, based in New York. He too was skeptical about the global wine shortage. He did some digging around and realised that this news story was based on one single source. A research report from the investment bank Morgan Stanley's research division, plugging the stock of an Australian wine company. The news machine gobbled it up greedily.

[E]

I think the first article I saw was full of these charts showing that the amount of wine we were drinking was going up even as the amount of wine that was being produced was going down, and that the inevitable consequence was that there just wouldn't be enough wine to go round. I think that most of the news stories didn't even read the report. They just read the headline which said global wine shortage and Then they said, global wine shortage, and they just copy and pasted the numbers from the report into their little scary ready set, panic articles. And that was the end of all of the reporting they did.

[C]

Should we believe it?

[E]

I can put you all at ease. You can stand down. You don't need to stock up on wine for the next five years because there's no global wine shortage.

[C]

I'm looking at the basic Morgan Stanley graph, and it seems fairly unambiguous. Production seems to be fairly steeply falling and consumption is now higher than production. So what's wrong with that picture that the graph is painting?

[E]

There actually was a little bit of a shortage between the years of 2007 and 2012. One thing they did was they stopped the graph in 2012.

[C]

This refers to the main graph on the first page of the report. It fails to give an estimate for 2013. If it did, it would have revealed that the decline in production over the past six years seems to have ended. According to official figures on wine production and consumption, better harvests and a bumper crop in the Southern hemisphere seem to have ensured a surge in the amount of wine. These figures come from the Organization Internationale de la Vigne et Duvain. It represents wine producers in 45 countries and publishes wine production figures every six months. I spoke to its director general, Federico Castellucci, in 2012. Was it true to say that there was a global wine shortage?

[F]

There was a global wine shortage, yes. Not enough wine for the drinkers now.

[C]

And why is that? Because there's wine in reserve.

[F]

I mean, in my calculation, we had almost a bit more than 8 million hectolitres. And then there are all reserves around. I mean, all the big countries have some reserve wine anyway.

[C]

And in 2013, is there a global wine shortage?

[F]

No, there's not a global wine shortage unless everybody cheers up again and starts drinking in a better way. There is enough wine to satisfy everybody.

[C]

That calls for a celebratory drink. But how did this story happen?

[E]

If you just did a little bit of a check on this, you would find that no one believed this report. Everyone who went out into the wine industry and said, is there a wine shortage? Kind of shrugged and said, what are you talking about? And if you went down to Spain or France, you would find a lot of vineyards which were for sale for less than the cost of planting the vines. So you could buy the land, plus all of the vines for less than it would cost to just plant the vines, which is a pretty good, on the face of it, evidence that there's no shortage of wine at all. The price of wine producing land is actually incredibly low.

[C]

Still, those Morgan Stanley graphs do look scary. So what's going on? It turns out that wine production does fluctuate. It's an agricultural crop, after all. But there's a lot of wine in storage. Fans of the European Union may recall the wine Lake wine is also diverted to other uses, such as making vinegar. It's still possible for temporary shortages to raise the price of wine bought in bulk by wholesalers. And this did in fact happen in 2012. But if you bought your wine in a bottle rather than in a jerry can, you probably notice much difference. Great news. While many people eat and drink to excess over Christmas and the New Year, there's one group of people who need to be more disciplined than ever. Footballers in the English Premier league will play four matches in 10 days. It must be a tough life for the poor things. Pundits are always keen to tell us that the Christmas fixtures have a big impact on who will be crowned champions in May and which teams will fall through the trapdoor out of the lucrative Premiership. But is that right? Ben Carter is here. Ben, is there any truth to the seasonal claims that these Christmas fixtures are pivotal?

[D]

Not really, tim. Of course, four games are four games and that's a reasonable chunk of a 38 match season. But there's no reason to think that the Christmas games are especially important. I looked at the last 10 Premier League seasons.

[C]

You're a statistical hero, Ben.

[D]

Well, somebody's got to do it, Tim. I looked at the last 10 Premier League seasons and compared each end of season table with a table in which I'd stripped out the results of the four matches over Christmas and the new year. The outcome of the title was affected just once in the 20112012 season.

[C]

I remember that. That was the one when Manchester City took the title with a dramatic pair of goals in injury time. And they pit Manchester United only on goal difference.

[D]

I think they did. And as a Manchester United fan, I will never forget it.

[C]

Sadly, in fairness, Ben, that was a drawn season, effectively. So it's not a surprise that the result would have been different if you took out the four Christmas games.

[D]

Quite. And without those fixtures, United would have won the title just by a solitary point. And there's another season when the Christmas fixtures were important. That was the 20042005 season.

[C]

Now I remember that controversial Everton finished fourth, Liverpool had won the Champions League, and then they needed to be granted special dispensation to defend their title because they hadn't finished in the top four places of the Premiership.

[D]

Tim, you are a true football historian. You are of course correct. But if we took out the Christmas fixtures that year, then Bolton and not Everton would have finished fourth.

[C]

Wow. So Bolton in some alternate Pagan universe were in the Champions League.

[D]

Yes, and in this alternate reality they would have been relegated in 200708 instead of reading. But if we look at how teams perform over Christmas compared to their Premier League performance as a whole, things get more interesting. There is one team that seems to excel at Christmas relative to its usual record.

[C]

So come on then, who are the kings of Christmas?

[D]

A team that have had a very difficult last month, Tottenham Hotspur. They averaged nearly half a point more per game over Christmas than than enjoying

[C]

the season overall, so that's not a statistic. Their recently sacked manager Andre Villas Boas will enjoy hearing. Ben Carter thank you very much. If there are any numbers you'd like us to check or explain, do please email us at more or lessbc.co.uk and you can download this program and many others for free at our website, bbcworldservice.com more or less

[B]

There are dozens of different podcasts now available from the BBC, including news, documentaries, science, business, arts and sports. For details of them all, go to bbcworldservice. Com Podcasts.