WS MoreOrLess: Xenophobia in South Africa

Summary

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More or Less: Xenophobia in South Africa

Podcast: More or Less
Host(s): Charlotte Macdonald, Hannah Moore
Episode: Xenophobia in South Africa
Date: April 25, 2015

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Episode Overview

This episode explores three widely circulated claims fueling xenophobia in South Africa, where recent attacks on migrants have caused national and international alarm. Drawing on expert insight from Kate Wilkinson of Africa Check, the team interrogates the numbers and examines the reality behind perceptions of migration, job competition, and foreign populations in South Africa. The second section turns to positive statistical progress in Africa, such as Rwanda’s reduction in infant mortality, and addresses new legal threats to statistical transparency in Tanzania.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. What’s Provoking Xenophobic Attacks in South Africa?

• Kate Wilkinson (Senior Researcher, Africa Check) links the violence to South Africa’s economic challenges, particularly high unemployment, especially among the youth (00:41).
  • “The economic situation in South Africa...I think it has been one of the key driving factors in the resurgence of xenophobic attacks this year.” — Kate Wilkinson (00:41)
• Public perception: Foreign migrants are blamed for job shortages.

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2. Myth-Busting: Three Claims about Migrants in South Africa

Claim 1: South Africa Has More Asylum Applications Than Anywhere Else

• The claim was true in 2008–2009, with 200,000 asylum applications, the highest globally at that time (01:28).
• By 2012, applications fell to between 60,000–85,000, and South Africa ranked behind the US and Germany (01:44).
  • “After that year, the numbers definitely decreased and they have been decreasing.” — Kate Wilkinson (01:28)
• Numbers around asylum are unreliable, partly due to new permit systems for arrivals (e.g., Zimbabwean permit) (02:06).

Claim 2: There Are up to 3 Million Zimbabweans in South Africa

• Claims range from 1 to 3 million Zimbabweans living in South Africa, commonly cited in media (02:59).
• World Bank estimates total foreign-born in the country at 1.8 million, so Zimbabweans alone cannot number 3 million (03:14).
  • “…estimates have ranged from 1 to 3 million. And we see these estimates popping up in news reports, on the radio, on TV shows.” — Kate Wilkinson (02:59)

Claim 3: Immigrants Are Stealing Our Jobs

• Newly available data: Only 4% of South Africa’s working-age population are international migrants, a stark contrast to popular estimates of around 20% (03:51–04:24).
  • “If you ask people in the street what percentage of the working force they think migrants make up, you often get estimates of anywhere around 20%.” — Kate Wilkinson (04:10)
  • Reality: Closer to 1 in 20, not 1 in 5 workers are migrants (04:24).
• Research finds migrants are more likely to be employed, but often in precarious, contractless jobs (04:33).
  • “Although they're more likely to be employed, International migrants are also more likely to find themselves in precarious employment.” — Kate Wilkinson (04:33)

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3. Statistical Success Stories in Africa (05:13–06:36)

Rwanda: Reduction in Infant Mortality

• Listener Question (Richard Knight): How many children’s lives has Rwanda saved since 2000 due to reduced infant mortality?
• UNICEF estimate: Nearly 600,000 children’s lives saved in 15 years, marking dramatic progress (05:40).

Tanzania: Educational Access and Quality

• School attendance up from 60% to over 90% due to compulsory primary enrollment (05:55).
• However, only one-third of children aged 10+ can read an English paragraph; teacher absenteeism half the time, according to World Bank and Tuaweza NGO studies (06:00–06:36).
  • “Unofficial statistics show that although more children are going to school, research…found only a third of kids can read an English paragraph from the syllabus they follow.” — Hannah Moore (05:55)

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4. Threat to Statistical Reporting: Tanzania's New Law (06:36–08:55)

• A new act in Tanzania may make it illegal to publish non-government-approved statistics.
• Could fine or jail (up to 3 years) those publishing "false" statistics (07:36–07:39).
  • “Some people are concerned about a few of its clauses, notably the one that would make it illegal to publish or communicate so-called false statistical information.” — Hannah Moore (07:02)
• Justin Sandifer (Center for Global Development): Political statistics (poverty rates, polling, etc.) are most at risk, while non-controversial data (like counting sheep) is unlikely to draw scrutiny (08:00–08:55).
  • “It’s more when you stray in to really...contentious issues where this law could be used against you, I think.” — Justin Sandifer (08:31)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “There are often a number of different claims about the number of Zimbabweans that live in South Africa, and estimates have ranged from 1 to 3 million…” — Kate Wilkinson (02:59)
• “...only 4% could be classified as international migrants or people who were born in a country that wasn’t South Africa. And I think that is in contrast to a perception of the size of the migrant population.” — Kate Wilkinson (03:51)
• “We can't test whether migrants are stealing jobs, but what we can do is we can look at where are they likely to work...” — Kate Wilkinson (04:33)
• “Nearly 600,000 children’s lives have been saved in those 15 years.” — UNICEF estimate relayed by Hannah Moore (05:40)
• “...although more children are going to school, research…found only a third of kids can read an English paragraph from the syllabus they follow.” — Hannah Moore (05:55)
• “You could get fined or face a three year prison sentence [for publishing false statistics].” — Hannah Moore (07:39)
• “It’s more when you stray into really...contentious issues where this law could be used against you, I think.” — Justin Sandifer (08:31)

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Important Timestamps

• 00:41 — Economic origins of xenophobia & role of unemployment
• 01:14–02:46 — Myth-busting three main claims about migrants in South Africa
• 03:51–05:13 — How many migrants actually work in South Africa? Data and perceptions
• 05:13–06:36 — Positive statistical news: Rwanda's infant mortality, Tanzania’s schooling
• 06:36–08:55 — Legal and political threats to statistical transparency in Tanzania

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Summary

This episode of More or Less critically examines the numbers behind xenophobic narratives in South Africa by scrutinizing media-repeated claims through the lens of research and official statistics. While unemployment and social strain are real, the popular figures about asylum seekers, migrants from Zimbabwe, and migrant job-takers are much exaggerated. The show also showcases the value of robust, transparent data through positive African success stories, then warns of new laws in Tanzania that threaten open access to statistics, potentially hiding the true story behind official numbers.

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Transcript

[Hannah Moore]

This is the short edition of More or Less, first broadcast on the BBC World Service.

[BBC Announcer]

Thank you for downloading from the BBC. For details of our complete range of podcasts and our terms of use, go to bbcworldservice.com podcasts

[Charlotte Macdonald]

welcome to More or Less on the BBC World Service. I'm Charlotte Macdonald.

[Hannah Moore]

And I'm Hannah Moore.

[Charlotte Macdonald]

First to South Africa, where a spate of xenophobic attacks have been hitting the news. Shops have been looted and a number of international migran have been attacked, some killed. We got in touch with Kate Wilkinson, a senior researcher at the website Africa Check, and asked her what had provoked these attacks.

[Kate Wilkinson]

When we talk about this, we do need to mention the economic situation in South Africa because I think it has been one of the key driving factors in the resurgence of xenophobic attacks. This year.

[Charlotte Macdonald]

She says unemployment is very high. Around half of young people aren't in work. But while South Africans are struggling to find jobs, the perception is that there are large numbers of people from abroad coming into the country.

[Hannah Moore]

Kate and her colleagues have been fact checking some of the claims that have been fuelling negative attitudes towards migrants. We asked her to run through three of them.

[Charlotte Macdonald]

Number one, South Africa has more asylum applications than anywhere else in the world.

[Hannah Moore]

This claim has been widely reported. Kate says there was some evidence that a few years ago this may have been true.

[Kate Wilkinson]

Asylum seeker applications seemed to sort of skyrocket in 2008 and 2009, and we definitely were receiving probably the most asylum seekers. But after that year, the numbers definitely decreased and they have been decreasing.

[Charlotte Macdonald]

According to the UN High Commission for Refugees, South Africa got more than 200,000 applications in 2009, making it the largest receiver of asylum seekers in the world. But by 2012, the most recent year we have data for, the numbers had fallen to around 6,60,000, meaning that it had fallen to third place behind the US and Germany.

[Hannah Moore]

But the figures are really unreliable in South Africa. Even if we take the most recent year of data, 2012, there seem to be a lot of estimates being given by the UN and by government ministers that contradict each other, ranging between 60,000 to 85,000 applications. It does look like there's been a decrease from hundreds of thousands to tens of thousands. Kate thinks one reason could be that new arrivals are being given a different status rather than being treated as asylum cases. For instance, there was a new permit introduced for all Zimbabweans in the country. Which leads us on to number two,

[Charlotte Macdonald]

there are up to 3 million people from Zimbabwe in South Africa.

[Hannah Moore]

Zimbabwe has suffered from political and economic instability for a number of years, and it shares a border with South Africa.

[Kate Wilkinson]

There are often a number of different claims about the number of Zimbabweans that live in South Africa, and estimates have ranged from 1 to 3 million. And we see these estimates popping up in news reports, on the radio, on TV shows.

[Charlotte Macdonald]

Working out if there really are more than 3 million Zimbabweans in South Africa has proved difficult. But according to the World bank, the total number of people born abroad is around 1.8 million people. So the proportion of people from Zimbabwe must be less than that

[Hannah Moore]

number three. Immigrants are stealing our jobs.

[Charlotte Macdonald]

Kate explained that until recently, this has been a really hard one to explore because the figures were just not available. But some researchers from the Migrating for Work Research Consortium have just published figures which seem at odds with people's perceptions.

[Kate Wilkinson]

What they found was that they looked at the working age population, so that's people aged 15 to 64. And what they found was out of all those people, only 4% could be classified as international migrants or people who were born in a country that wasn't South Africa. And I think that is in contrast to a perception of the size of the migrant population. If I ask my colleagues, if you ask people in the street what percentage of the working force they think migrants make up, you often get estimates of anywhere around 20%.

[Charlotte Macdonald]

So whereas people on the street might feel that 1 in 5 people working are international migrants, it's actually closer to 1 in 20, according to this research.

[Kate Wilkinson]

We can't test whether migrants are stealing jobs, but what we can do is we can look at where are they likely to work. And it's quite interesting is that as an international migrant in South Africa, you're actually more likely to be employed and working than a local. Although they're more likely to be employed, International migrants are also more likely to find themselves in precarious employment. So it means that they're more likely to take jobs where there are no contracts, there are no benefits. And that might account for, you know, why they're more likely to be employed is that they are more likely to take those jobs.

[Charlotte Macdonald]

This week we received a request for help from the editor of the inquiry on the World Service. Here's Richard Knight, formerly of the more or less fold.

[Richard Knight]

Dear More or less. In the year 2000, the world committed to reducing infant mortality by 2015. It was one of the Millennium Development Goals. And Rwanda has done really well. Infant mortality has dropped dramatically. My question is, how many kids lives has rwanda saved between 2000 and 2015?

[Hannah Moore]

Well, the inquiry team could have Worked it out for themselves. But I decided to take on the challenge. I made a call to UNICEF and they reckoned that the lives of almost 600,000 children have been saved in those 15 years.

[Charlotte Macdonald]

And that's actually quite good statistical news.

[Hannah Moore]

Do you want to hear another one? Go on. Fifteen years ago, only about six out of ten children in Tanzania went to school. Now more than nine out of ten children go to school. And it's largely been achieved by the government making it compulsory for parents to enrol their kids. That is good news. But there's some less good news. Unofficial statistics show that although more children are going to school, research by the Tanzanian civil society organization Tuaweza found only a third of kids, kids aged 10 and above, can read an English paragraph from the syllabus they follow. And a study by the World bank found teachers were absent half of the time its researchers visited classrooms.

[Charlotte Macdonald]

Okay, that's not so great. But I guess at least these statistics show what needs to be done to improve.

[Hannah Moore]

Well, there's a problem. An act's just been passed by parliament in Tanzania. That could mean official statistics, those produced by the government and the agencies it approves, are the only ones we'll see.

[Charlotte Macdonald]

Alright, so you mean from the example you just gave, we would know that more children are. But we might not know about the shortcomings in schools that the NGO found.

[Hannah Moore]

Exactly. Journalists and researchers in Tanzania and across the world are complaining this law could stop them telling the full story. Some people are concerned about a few of its clauses, notably the one that would make it illegal to publish or communicate so called false statistical information.

[Charlotte Macdonald]

False statistical information? What does that actually mean?

[Hannah Moore]

The problem is no one's quite sure. The parliament hasn't published the final version of the act. It's passed. An earlier draft that was published late last year certainly suggested the potential to limit access to information.

[Charlotte Macdonald]

What would actually happen if you published false statistics?

[Hannah Moore]

You could get fined or face a three year prison sentence. I've been speaking to Justin Sandifer from the center for Global Development and a former advisor to the Tanzanian government on research methods. He's working in the capital, Dar es Salaam right now. I asked him how this act could affect what gets published if it becomes law.

[Justin Sandifer]

When you think about what counts as politically contentious in Tanzania, certainly the poverty numbers are politically contentious. Even basic political polling around, you know, who you plan to vote for, that's very contentious. And, you know, I think people would be increasingly reluctant to say anything about what's going on with the elections if this bill becomes law, how would it

[Hannah Moore]

affect more what you might think of as harmless statistical analysis? Say if somebody just wanted to count, I don't know, the number of sheep in a field.

[Justin Sandifer]

If you count accurately and report honestly, there's no reason you should run afoul of this law and it's very unlike, it's an uncontroversial subject. It's very unlikely that the government would ever pursue something like that. It's more when you stray in to really, you know, contentious issues where this law could be used against you, I think.

[Hannah Moore]

If you want to hear more about how Rwanda has tackled infant mortality, listen to the inquiry on the BBC World Service on Tuesday.

[Charlotte Macdonald]

If you have a story for us, email more or lessbc.co.uk or find us on Twitter BBC More or Less.

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