(WS) Weight of the world

Summary

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More or Less (BBC Radio 4)

Episode: Weight of the World

Host: Angela Saini (standing in for Tim Harford)
Air Date: June 23, 2012
Theme: Challenging the numbers behind the “weight of the world,” controversial boxing statistics, and footballer Wayne Rooney’s supposed GDP-sized salary.

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Overview

This episode of More or Less investigates the numbers behind several eye-catching claims:

1. The “weight of the world” — Is global human weight out of control, and are Americans the model for everyone else?
2. The punch stats behind a contentious boxing match outcome.
3. Does Wayne Rooney really earn more than Nepal’s GDP?
   Through expert interviews and sharp debunking, the team applies statistical common sense to headlines that demand it.

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1. The World’s Weight Problem

Study Claim:

A new study published in BMC Public Health asserted that global adult human biomass totals around 287 million metric tonnes, with 15 million tonnes considered excess from overweight individuals. The heaviest nations, led by the US, are suggested as a possible future global norm.

The Numbers

• If all nations matched the US's BMI: World biomass would increase by 58 million tonnes—the equivalent weight of nearly a billion average adults.
• This was widely interpreted as a warning about the global obesity trend.

Expert Insights

Prof. Nick Massey Taylor (Cambridge University, Population Biology and Health) – [02:12]

• Criticizes the paper for using the "worst case scenario" (the US) as the global model:

  "This is the most unlikely scenario... to impose an American BMI distribution on the rest of the world is... quite stupid." (02:12)

• Suggests a more realistic model:

  "Assume an increase, for example, 2kg per decade... which is reasonable from our international studies." (02:12)

Angela Saini – [02:42]
Questions the rationale behind choosing the US as a model:

"So why have they cherry picked the worst case scenario?"

Dr. David Prietal Marino (Co-Author, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine) – [02:56, 03:26, 03:34]

• Defends the approach as a thought experiment to raise awareness:

  "We don't want to say that necessarily will happen like that. We just want to raise awareness..." (02:56) "We didn't want to scare anyone. We were just saying this is the data and these are possible scenarios." (03:26)

• Admits focusing on both extremes, but the US dominates the conclusions:

  "We did pick up the worst and the best. We also put Japan in there... but... in the conclusion, it's just the US because... that would be worst case scenario." (03:38 – 03:50)

Memorable Moment:
Angela Saini challenges—pointed but fair—on whether choosing the US for the conclusion is "scaremongering" and “cherry picking.”

Takeaway:
While global adult weight is rising, projecting an American-style obesity crisis is “the most unlikely scenario.” Sensible statistical extrapolation is key.

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2. Boxing by the Numbers: Pacquiao vs. Bradley

The Controversy

On June 9, 2012, Filipino superstar Manny Pacquiao lost a decision to American Timothy Bradley in Las Vegas—a result considered deeply controversial.

Listener Question

Andrew Kasumba, from Kampala, asks:

"Who mathematically won the fight between Manny Pacquiao and Timothy Bradley?" (04:35)

Expert Analysis

Bob Cannobio (Founder, Compubox) – [05:07, 05:36, 06:24]

• Describes the stunned ringside reaction:

  "Everybody was just pretty much in shock. Honestly. There was a lot of booing from the crowd..." (05:07)

The Numbers

• Punches Landed: Pacquiao landed 253 punches to Bradley's 159 (Pacquiao ahead in 10 of 12 rounds).
• Power Punches: Pacquiao landed more in 11 of 12 rounds.

  "Pacquiao had a 253 to 159 edge in total punches landed... landed more power punches in 11 of the 12 rounds." (05:36)

Judges’ Perspective

• Timing matters: 48% of Pacquiao’s landed punches came in the final minute of each round:

  "Of his 253 connects, 122 occurred in the last minute... maybe the judges were looking at the first two minutes... That maybe may have swayed the judges. I don't know." (06:24)

Outcome

• The World Boxing Organization rescore (after public uproar): All five judges declared Pacquiao the winner. However, Bradley kept the title.

Takeaway Quote:
Angela Saini —

"It pays to trust the stats." (06:58)

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3. Rooney’s Salary vs. Nepal’s GDP

Listener Question

Albert from Nigeria asks:

"Is it true that Rooney's deal with Manchester United is worth more than the GDP of Nepal?" (07:25)

The Facts

• Wayne Rooney's annual income: ~$24 million (salary + endorsements)
• Nepal’s GDP: ~$16 billion

  "Albert no, I'm sure Rooney would like to be earning that much, but it's not even nearly true." (07:36)

Takeaway:
Spectacular paycheques still pale next to the economic output of entire nations—even small ones.

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4. Bonus: On Coincidences

Listener Email

Alex shares a personal statistical oddity—meeting another man in Lima and discovering:

• Both were born on exactly the same day
• In the same hospital in Stockholm
• Parents were foreign diplomats

Host Reflection

"Judging from the numbers we crunched on coincidences in our last program, Alex, the chance is probably higher than you think." (09:09)

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Notable Quotes & Moments

• "To impose an American BMI distribution on the rest of the world is... quite stupid." - Prof. Nick Massey Taylor ([02:12])
• "We didn't want to scare anyone. We were just saying this is the data and these are possible scenarios." - Dr. David Prietal Marino ([03:26])
• "Everybody was just pretty much in shock. Honestly." - Bob Cannobio ([05:07])
• "It pays to trust the stats." - Angela Saini ([06:58])
• "It's not even nearly true." - Angela Saini, on Rooney’s salary being greater than Nepal’s GDP ([07:36])

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• [00:17] – Episode introduction and set-up of topics
• [01:00 – 04:00] – Discussion of the global “weight of the world” claim
• [04:00 – 07:00] – Boxing controversy and punch stat analysis
• [07:25] – Rooney/Nepal GDP myth busted
• [08:27] – Coincidence anecdote and statistical reflection

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Conclusion

This episode delivers the More or Less promise: separating scare stories (and sporting myths) from statistical reality, with experts and data—plus just enough humor—to keep listeners both informed and entertained.

Transcript

[BBC Announcer]

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[Angela Saini]

you've downloaded. More or less an oasis of common sense in the desert of Innumeracy. In this week's episode, we're taking on the weight of the world and judging a welterweight boxing match. Hello, welcome to More or less on the BBC World Service. For the next 10 minutes, we'll be picking apart the numbers in the news. I'm Angela Saini, standing in for regular presenter Tim Harford. This week, we enter the ring for a statistical boxing match. But first, and this is a delicate question with the entire human population mind just coming over here for a moment. Okay. We're just going to measure your weight. Could you get onto these scales for me? Yep, just there. Oh, looks like we're heavier than ever. According to a study published this week in the journal Biomed Central Public Health, it's not only because there are more of us Global adult human biomass. Our combined weight now stands at around 287 million metric tonnes. And 15 million tonnes of that is excess being carried by the overweight. That's the problem for all of us, is that like every creature in the animal kingdom, the heavier we are, the more energy we need. Leading the league table of heaviest nations is the us. The authors argue that if every country had the same body mass index distribution as their, the weight of the world would increase by 58 million tons, the equivalent of nearly a billion averagely sized adults. So are they right? Could the rest of the world go down the same road as the us? It's a theory that certainly got lots of head around the world. Well, according to Nick Massey Taylor, a professor of human population biology and health at Cambridge University, the US is not necessarily a good model for where we're heading.

[Nick Massey Taylor]

This is the most unlikely scenario because it's surely most untrue that populations will in fact be going like that if they've taken a much more reasonable scenario. Having got the weights of each population, let's then assume an increase in, for example, 2kg per decade, which is a reasonable amount to have from some of our international studies extrapolate from that onwards. That would actually give us a much better scenario about what might happen. But to impose, if you like, a BMI dispute for America on the rest of the world is in many ways quite stupid.

[Angela Saini]

So why have they cherry picked the worst case scenario? David Prietal Marino is a lecturer in the Department of Medical Statistics at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and one of the scientists who wrote this paper.

[David Prietal Marino]

We don't want to say that necessarily will happen like that. We just want to raise awareness that if this happens, then we will be in such a situation. If you look at the statistics from who their BMI estimations seems to be going up in most of the countries, so that's an indication that we might be heading in that direction. However, whether we get there or not will depend on the policies.

[Angela Saini]

Are you sure you're not scaremongering here by telling everybody that we're tipping the scales too much?

[David Prietal Marino]

No, we didn't want to scare anyone. We were just saying this is the data and these are possible scenarios. We also put an estimate.

[Angela Saini]

Although you did pick out the worst case scenario in picking out the U.S. didn't you?

[David Prietal Marino]

We did pick up the worst and the best. We also put Japan in there and we said how better things would go. We were like Japan, but as somebody

[Angela Saini]

who's read the report fully, yes, Japan is there, but in the conclusion, it's

[David Prietal Marino]

just the US because in the conclusions we want to focus on on the public health problem, and that would be worst case scenario rather than in the best case scenario.

[Angela Saini]

That was David Prietal Marino from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. Now from overweight to welterweight. June 9 saw a bout in Las Vegas between Filipino Manny Pacquiao, widely regarded as one of the best boxers in the world, and American Timothy Bradley. In the fight, Manny Pacquiao seemed to be on top, but the judges declared Bradley the winner. It was a highly controversial decision, and it prompted this email from one more or less listener in Kampala who wanted to know more about the statistics of the punch count.

[Listeners (Andrew Kasumba and Albert)]

I am Andrew Kasumba, who mathematically won the fight between Manny Pacquiao and Timothy Bradley.

[Angela Saini]

Andrew, you've asked the right people. We may not know much about boxing, but when it comes to a contest of numbers, we at more or less don't pull our punches. We have gone all the way to Bob Cannobio, the founder of Compubox, which analyses boxing statistics. He was there on the night of the fight, ringside no less, counting every punch. And as he explains, the real drama started when the match finished.

[Bob Cannobio]

When the rap fight ended, we just assumed, you know, it was a victory for Matty and we'd be on our way. And I could hear in the headset one of the production people saying, is that correct? Cause they must have heard the first score for Bradley. And then, you know, the rest of the scores were announced and everybody was just pretty much in shock. Honestly. There was a lot of booing from the crowd, but mostly was it was. I think everybody was pretty stunned.

[Angela Saini]

After this shock result, Bob went off to do some deeper analysis.

[Bob Cannobio]

We found that Pacquiao landed more punches in 10 of the 12 rounds. Pacquiao had a 253 to 159 edge and total punches landed. We then take it a little bit further and look at power punches, because a fighter could land less punches in a fight, but if he's landing the harder punches, you could justify him winning rounds and in turn winning a fight. So we then broke down the power punches and found that Pacquiao landed more power punches in 11 of the 12 rounds. In my view, Pacquiao was not only landing more punches, but was landing the harder punches.

[Angela Saini]

So mathematically, you could say that Pacquiao won. An analysis of the stats, though, does show why the judges may not have seen it that way.

[Bob Cannobio]

48% of Pacquiao's landed punches came in the last minute of each round. So of his 253 connects, 122 occurred in the last minute of the round, which you would think would have solidified his standing. It would have still been fresh with the judges. But if you look at the other side of the coin, maybe the judges were looking at the first two minutes. Oh, man, he's having another slow round. He's not landing as many punches in the first two minutes. So that maybe may have swayed the judges. I don't know.

[Angela Saini]

Far be it from us to adjudicate a boxing match, but in the humble opinion of more or less, it pays to trust the stats. And proving that point, since we started looking into this, the World Boxing Organization decided to rescore the fight. Five judges declared Manny Pacquiao the winner. Officially, though, Timothy Bradley keeps the title. Now I see we have time for one last question from a listener. This is Albert in Nigeria.

[Listeners (Andrew Kasumba and Albert)]

I read this article about when Rooney's deal with Manchester United is worth more than the GDP of Nepal. Could this be true? Please. I would like for you to help me investigate this fact.

[Angela Saini]

Thank you, Albert. Read this claim on the football website Kickers. So is it true Rooney is one of the highest paid players in the English Premier League? Forbes Magazine reckons he earns almost US$18 million from his deal with Manchester United and an extra $6 million from endorsements, making his total income around US$24 million a year. The annual GDP of Nepal is almost $16 billion. So Albert no, I'm sure Rooney would like to be earning that much, but it's not even nearly true. Please do keep your thoughts and suggestions coming in. Last week's show on coincidences left our mailbag full of your stories. In fact, before I go, I can't resist squeezing in one more email about a chance encounter. This is from listener Alex Some years

[Listener Alex]

back, when working for an international bank, I had to go see the acting head of our Peruvian office. He's Peruvian and I'm British and we'd never met. At least that's what we thought. But over lunch in Lima, we established that we were both born on exactly the same day. Big deal in Stockholm. Bigger deal in the same hospital. Even bigger deal. And having confirmed with my mother and his in adjoining beds, the secret was that his parents were Peruvian diplomats posted to Sweden and mine were British diplomats posted to Sweden. And there was only one hospital that the diplomats used. Nevertheless, what's the chance of that?

[Angela Saini]

Judging from the numbers we crunched on coincidences in our last program, Alex, the chance is probably higher than you think. You can listen to that addition or download the podcast on our website, bbcworldservice.com moreorless our email address is moreorlessbc.co.uk that was more or less first broadcast on the BBC World Service with me, Angela Saini. The producer was Ruth Alexander and the editor Richard Varden.

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