More or Less Podcast – Episode Summary

Episode Title

2026 Tech Predictions: AI Layoffs, a $500B IPO, and the Death of SaaS as We Know It
Podcast: More or Less
Hosts: Dave Morin, Jessica Lessin, Brit Morin, Sam Lessin
Date: December 19, 2025

Episode Overview

In this lively year-end episode, the More or Less crew debates their tech predictions for 2026, reflecting on which of their last year’s forecasts came true and speculating on what's to come in AI, social platforms, IPOs, SaaS, crypto, and culture. The discussion blends deep industry insight with inside jokes and friendly ribbing, capturing the energy of a group who’ve weathered Silicon Valley’s ups and downs together for over a decade.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Looking Back: Scoring 2025 Predictions ([03:47]–[13:11])

Bitcoin and Crypto

• Sam’s prediction that Bitcoin would hit $200,000 fell short; it capped at $123,000.
  • “Number go down.” – Jess [04:17]
• Solana ETF was (sort of) approved, and more governments own Bitcoin.
• Chinese sellers on Amazon rose to 57%, defying Brit’s prediction of more American brands.
• “Like tariffs, anyone?” – Sam [06:44]

Manufacturing & Regulation

• American onshoring in manufacturing didn't materialize as expected; Chinese brands remain strong on Amazon.
• Dave called for a new era of AI-driven software engineering; panel agrees there was progress ("Cursor Sprint"), but debate if it’s become mainstream.

Big Tech & GLP-1

• Jess describes Google’s leap with Gemini as the biggest surprise/delta of the year. Apple lost ground but is expected to rebound.
  • “Google has the biggest…delta…in sentiment and execution.” – Sam [12:47]
• Brit notes GLP-1 drugs made a huge splash, with more celebrities openly using them than expected.

Notable New Terms

• “Slop” becomes the token word of 2025.
  • “2025 was definitely the year of slop.” – Jess [11:34]

2. Shifting Power & Capex Press Releases ([11:51]–[16:10])

• Government’s changing posture with Silicon Valley highlighted, especially in chip diplomacy and large tech investments.
• Massive capex announcements are the “art of the deal” now, but real progress (“shovels in the ground”) lags due to setbacks like Texas rains.

3. 2026 Predictions

Brit’s 2026 Predictions ([16:28]–[20:34])

• Apple will “come back” in AI and introduce a new hit product (not Vision Pro), possibly in AR or home devices.
  • “I think they will be a more hearty competitor…one new hit product…along the lines of when the watch was announced.” – Brit [17:26]
• Wearables & Agents: All hosts will have a “thing” (ring/necklace) that listens/summarizes their day, and a personal agent integrated with multiple platforms.
  • “We’ll still be in the early adopter cohort, but long-term, a lot of people are going to start using these—even though they evade our privacy.” – Brit [18:07]
• AI and Celebrities: A major A-list artist will license themselves for AI-generated content.
• AI Social App: A new AI-powered consumer social app will finally break through.
• Pop Culture: Taylor Swift will get married, release a new album, and announce pregnancy by year’s end. ([51:31])

Sam’s 2026 Predictions ([20:34]–[27:07])

• Emmy Goes to a Creator: Predicts a YouTuber or non-traditional creator will win an Emmy.
• Massive Layoffs: Expects “massive layoffs across Silicon Valley” due to AI efficiencies and pressure on capex.
  • “I think what’s happening is companies are realizing they don’t need to be this big.” – Sam [21:48]
• Big IPOs: The landscape could see SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic going public, raising liquidity and creating “have/have-not” divides.
  • “Two people…bought houses after seeing me tweet [about IPOs].” – Sam [23:33]
• Prediction Markets: Kalshi, Polymarket, etc., will face regulatory headwinds and stall after a breakout year.
• Gemini Adoption: At least one major tech company will abandon its own model for Google’s Gemini.

Jess’s 2026 Predictions ([29:05]–[34:42])

• Third Space Explosion: Predicts real-world “third space” experiences (social/wellness clubs, arcades, spas) will become the new tech trend as people tire of digital life.
  • “People are just crying out for physical experience and real-world experience.” – Jess [30:15]
• Tale of Two Cities in Valley: Ongoing division between digital “influencer/creator” types and those seeking more authentic, meaningful, in-person connections.
• Games as Media: IP owners will increasingly launch new brands in gaming first (notably Fortnite), with potential regulation incoming for platforms like Roblox due to child safety.
  • “I think we’re going to take games as digital community, games as social media, a lot more seriously.” – Jess [34:42]

Dave’s 2026 Predictions ([36:11]–[39:42])

• $500B+ IPO: Only one $500B+ IPO next year—could be SpaceX or OpenAI.
• Market Moves: Google up 15%, Nvidia down 15%, Meta at an all-time high.
  • “TPU story…other suppliers of chips. They don’t really have a monopoly.” – Dave [37:02]
• Government Policy: As long as government policy favors “GDP go up,” markets will stay stable/up.
• AI Ad Gold Rush: AI-driven ad automation will drive Meta’s revenue growth.
• Crypto: Broadly stagnant, no dramatic changes; AI/betting narratives have replaced crypto hype.
• AI Porn: 2026 will see mainstreaming of AI-generated NSFW content as tech improves.
  • “There’s just like all these opportunities in the NSFW world where like people have dabbled with AI, but…I think it’s about to go super mainstream.” – Dave [49:41]

4. Sectoral Shifts: SaaS, Media, and More ([45:38]–[48:55])

• Death of SaaS? Dave predicts “AI is the new UI,” threatening traditional SaaS models as AI-generated interfaces become more accessible—challenging seat-based enterprise software.
  • “Most of SaaS was: complex UX on top of a Postgres database…people will be able to generate UIs in a way that is very rapid and fast.” – Dave [47:11]
• Journalism: Sam and Jess discuss the “ROI on truth”—AI could boost local journalism, but also weakens the incentive for factual reporting.
• Media Shakeups: Predicts major layoffs and at least one big editor departure at a major publication.

5. Pop Culture & Lifestyle ([51:13]–[54:29])

• GLP-1 Usage: Brit expects usage of GLP-1 drugs nearly doubling year-over-year, potentially reaching one-third of adults.
• Taylor Swift: Brit predicts marriage, a new album, and pregnancy announcement.
• Desire for “Real” Experiences: Book clubs, wellness hotels, and “third spaces” top cultural wants.
• Memes and Branding: The meme economy (e.g., Mooses’ “6-7” shirts) and questions about monetizing meme culture.

6. Industry “Wants” for 2026 ([52:22]–[53:14])

• Cash: VCs want distributions and liquidity.
• Kids’ Mental Health: Jess pushes for more industry focus on children’s wellbeing and better screen-time controls.
• Phones Out of Schools, Self-driving Cars (Waymos) In: Sam’s half-joke summary of his policy wish.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “The funny thing about that is like $10B doesn’t even get me out of bed anymore... they're not even buying a Miata.” – Dave [00:04, 13:42]
• “I think all four of us by this time next year are going to have a thing on us that is listening and summarizing our days.” – Brit [18:03]
• “I think what’s happening is companies are realizing they don’t need to be this big.” – Sam [21:48]
• “The ROI on truth is changing…” – Sam [44:48], on AI-generated media and facts
• “AI is the new UI… SaaS is under threat.” – Dave [47:11]
• “I think this upcoming year is going to be the year of AI porn.” – Dave [49:29]
• “Will anyone be able to harness the power of memes... to make actual money?” – Jess [54:05]

Timestamps for Major Segments

• Predictions Recap for 2025: [03:47]–[13:11]
• State of Big Tech (AI, Apple, Google): [12:33]–[13:11]
• Capex, Press Releases, Government: [13:35]–[16:10]
• Brit’s 2026 Predictions: [16:28]–[20:34]
• Sam’s 2026 Predictions: [20:34]–[27:07]
• Jess’s 2026 Predictions: [29:05]–[34:42]
• Dave’s 2026 Predictions: [36:11]–[39:42]
• SaaS/AI “UI” Shift: [45:38]–[48:55]
• AI Porn / NSFW Markets: [49:29]–[50:59]
• GLP-1 & Taylor Swift: [51:13]–[51:50]
• Industry Wants: [52:22]–[53:14]
• Closing Thoughts & Memes: [54:05]–[54:46]

Summary Takeaways

The More or Less crew sees a 2026 shaped by:

• Mainstreaming of AI into personal and professional life (agents/wearables, creatives, automation).
• Significant sectoral shakeups: massive layoffs due to AI, SaaS business models threatened, and a cultural hunger for real-world connection.
• The biggest stories may be wonky (massive IPOs, market cap shifts), but the real fun is in how AI changes our daily habits and relationships—with technology, with truth, and with pop culture itself.