More or Less Podcast Episode Summary

Episode: OpenClaw vs Meta vs OpenAI: The Personal Agent Wars Heat Up
Date: February 20, 2026
Hosts: Dave Morin, Jessica Lessin, Brit Morin, Sam Lessin

Episode Overview

This episode centers on the intensifying competition in Silicon Valley’s “personal agent” space, spotlighting the major moves among OpenClaw, OpenAI, and Meta. The hosts, all seasoned founders and investors, dissect the significance of recent news: the OpenClaw founder joining OpenAI, the creation of the Open Claw Foundation (with Dave Morin on its board), and Meta’s rapid response with its own wearable/AI personal agent projects. The conversation weaves through the consumer vs. cloud control debate, poaching talent, the proliferation of agentic software, the shifting venture landscape, hardware innovation (or lack thereof), and the looming disruption of the software engineering labor market. Sprinkled throughout is their signature rapport and humor, plus a surprise ski injury update and speculation on government tech contracting.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. State of the Agent Wars: OpenClaw, OpenAI, and Meta

[05:44-09:32]

• OpenClaw’s Future and Foundation:

  • Jessica explains the news: OpenClaw’s founder moves to OpenAI, and in parallel, the Open Claw Foundation is created to secure the open-source ethos, with Dave Morin joining the board.
  • Dave emphasizes “the claw is the law” and expresses pride in shepherding what may be the fastest-growing open-source project in internet history.
    • Dave Morin [07:00]: “It’s great for all the developers and builders and hackers out there. Maintaining the open source project itself and its ethos is really important.”
  • The foundation aims to ensure continued independence, transparency, and rapid innovation for developers.

• Meta’s Response & Mana Agent:

  • Jessica: “Meta matched this news within 24 hours with … a new Manus agent coming from an acquisition they did.”
  • Brit points out the fundamental architectural differences: Meta and others are deploying cloud-based agents, but OpenClaw is “literally on hardware on your own computer and it’s the thing that you own.”
  • Brit [09:03]: “That’s the big OpenClaw advantage… You have full control, not some company in the cloud.”

• Open Source, Cloud vs. Local Control, and Market Differentiation:

  • Dave underscores that cloud-based solutions will appeal to billions, but many want data/AI ownership—giving OpenClaw lasting appeal for a privacy-focused segment.
  • They all agree this validation by big players puts “personal agent” innovation in hyperdrive.

2. Talent Wars: Poaching, Rivalry, and Market Signals

[11:41-15:36]

• Jessica shares the news that Charles Porch, senior Instagram exec, switches to OpenAI—evidence of “a new wave of poaching” beyond just AI scientists.
• Jessica [13:01]: “You can always tell a lot about a company from who it sees as its greatest rival.”
• The group reflects how poaching patterns can signal which firms consider each other existential competitors—predicting future moves before the public narrative catches up.

3. Hardware Innovation or Déjà Vu?

[15:36-18:37]

• Meta’s smartwatch plans resurface, and hosts debate if anyone will buy them—or if “smart” wearables are stuck in a design rut.
• Jessica: “This is reminding me of… the Internet of Things era… everyone was just putting an iPad on everything. That’s what this all feels like to me.”
• Gendered fashion/wearable challenges discussed: Brit notes the lack of women-focused wearable design.

4. Ambient Tech, Agents, and the Future of Memory

[18:37-22:37]

• The hosts riff on the coming “agentic” world, where wearables, rings, glasses, and ambient recording mesh with AI memory agents to fundamentally change how we record and recall daily life.
• Brit: “We need a catchphrase for this agentic world we’re about to live in.”
• Jessica is bullish on AI-powered ambient memory/recording—especially for business and personal productivity.

5. Venture & Startup Market: The Tale of Two Cities

[22:44-26:56]

• Jessica spotlights massive fundraising rounds for companies like Anthropic and Anduril, while “meg7” founders continue to raise at sky-high valuations.

  • Brit: “Valuations are still coming hot and furious.”

• Dave describes an ecosystem split:

  • Brand-name founders and “private meg7” can raise billions on vision and narrative.
  • The seed/AI startup market stays hyper-competitive as everyone scrambles to keep up. “The market is pretty normative right now … things are moving so fast that what you invested in last year might already be in trouble.”

• Larger companies feel the strain of pivoting to agentic/AI-first models due to sheer scale and bureaucracy.

  • Brit [26:24]: “A 600-person company CEO was like—I need to pivot to agentic, but it takes months… the landscape is shifting in weeks.”

6. Engineering Jobs: Will They Disappear?

[27:18-41:12]

• Jessica opens the controversial topic: will AI tools reduce traditional software engineering jobs, especially in the Bay Area?
• Estimates: 400,000 professional engineers today. Three years from now?
  • Dave is optimistic: more software = more work, though some jobs may shift away from coding to overseeing AI tools/agents.
  • Brit and later Sam argue job decline is inevitable: “One great engineer can do the work of many… the number of actual engineers will go down.”
  • Jessica [30:54]: “In three years, I’ll go down to 300,000 … then it drops more precipitously. I think by then it will drop more.”
  • Sam [43:53]: “200,000.”
  • All agree that how the transition happens (“who blinks first” in layoffs) will be important—and that the story will likely evolve from “removing bureaucracy” to “AI-driven efficiencies.”
• Dave questions whether “normies” will build their own apps at scale using these new tools—Brit is bullish, Dave is skeptical, humorously playing “voice of Sam.”

7. Government & AI: The New Contracting Battleground

[41:40-47:52]

• The hosts briefly touch on the brewing clash between Anthropic and the U.S. government over terms of use and access to their AI, while Meta, xAI, and others chase lucrative government contracts.
• Sam muses on whether intelligence is becoming so abundant and cheap that it’s “a commodity, [and] I just don't understand how anyone can hold each other ransom effectively over terms of use because you just … buy it from someone else.” [46:30]
• Dave likens the rapid commoditization of AI tokens to the power industry.

8. Commoditization, Orchestration, and the Business of AI

[47:53-55:12]

• Sam lays out a provocative viewpoint: if intelligence (tokens) become ultra-abundant/cheap, real business value accrues to orchestrators and specialized agents—echoing lessons from the power industry.
• Brit highlights healthcare as a vertical where agent accuracy and trust will matter a lot more than price alone.
• Jessica and Dave note OpenClaw is already an orchestrator, routing requests to different models for efficiency and use case performance.
• Dave [52:10]: “This is also the story of OpenClaw … a great orchestrator across all the models. … What you’re going to see is the rise of a billion bots.”

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “The claw is the law.” — Dave Morin [05:57]
• “It’s the Internet of putting iPads on things.” — Dave Morin [17:33]
• “We need a catchphrase for this agentic world we’re about to live in.” — Brit [18:13]
• “[Agentic engineering is] playing out across the stack… dark factories where people are no longer reviewing code.” — Dave Morin [26:58]
• “Is San Francisco Detroit if no one is doing software engineering 12 months from now?” — Dave Morin [33:12]
• “We have no idea. That’s why it’s so fun.” — Jessica [33:44]
• “If intelligence becomes super cheap and abundant, then intelligence isn't worth anything.” — Sam Lessin [45:38]
• “If you are a major CEO in Silicon Valley, are you really going to let go of 30% of your software engineers, 50%?” — Dave Morin [35:13]

Important Timestamps

• [05:44] – OpenClaw Foundation announcement; Dave Morin’s board role
• [09:32] – OpenClaw's architecture versus Meta’s cloud-based agent
• [13:01] – Talent poaching between Meta and OpenAI
• [17:26] – “Internet of putting iPads on things”—hardware design rant
• [22:44] – Startup/VC landscape: Private “meg7,” hot deals
• [27:18] – Bay Area software engineering jobs debate
• [40:29] – When will “normie” friends start building their own apps?
• [41:40] – Government contracting and Anthropic–Pentagon dispute
• [45:38] – Sam’s “cheap intelligence means no leverage” thesis
• [52:10] – Value of orchestration in the agentic AI world

Episode Flow

• Light intro / banter with updates from the hosts—humorous detours including Sam’s ski injury and urgent care trip ([03:10-04:42])
• Major AI news, Open Claw Foundation, and Meta vs. OpenAI rivalry
• Wearables & hardware's relevance and design shortcomings
• Agentic future, privacy vs. convenience, and AI-powered memory
• VC market, valuations, and company pivots
• Deep debate: Will engineers be disrupted like taxi drivers, or will new opportunities emerge?
• Government and regulatory tension
• Meta-point: The real value may not be AI’s “raw tokens,” but orchestration and vertical applications

Final Thoughts

• The episode delivers a dynamic, sometimes playful, often heated debate about where the AI agent wars are heading—both technologically and socially.
• It highlights the uncertainty (and opportunity) of the next three years: for startups, big tech, individual workers, and society.
• The hosts invite listener/viewer participation, particularly in predicting the future of engineering employment and the practical impact of agentic AI.

To join the discussion or learn more, visit the More or Less website or follow the hosts on social (links in episode description).