Podcast
Multipolarity
Hosted by Multipolarity · EN
Charting The Rise Of A Multipolar World Order
Philip Pilkington is an unorthodox macroeconomist.
Andrew Collingwood is an equally skeptical journalist.
Lately, both have realised that - post-Ukraine, post-Afghanistan withdrawal - the old, unipolar, US-led world order is in its death throes.
In its wake, something new is being born. But what shape will that take? That will depend on a combustible combination of economics and geopolitics; trade and military muscle.
Each week, our duo take three off-radar news stories and explain how each is shaping our multipolar reality.
15episodes
Episodes
Newest firstAll episodes
Two Audio Essays: The Escalation Ladder & Weaponised Interdependence
5d ago00:11:36Tap to summarizeThis week: two audio essays. First up, they’re calling it the Poor Man’s Tomahawk. Ukraine is firing up to 2000 long range drones a week into Russia. The production facilities supplying them are scattered across Western Europe. These production facilities have an artificial shield, in that they are diplomatically protected. But how long this will last is unclear. For its part, Ukraine would like the West to be more active in the war. And one way to do that would be to antagonise Russia into responding beyond its borders. There is now a 50% chance of erratic strikes into Europe proper within the next year, as Philip Pilkington makes clear in The Escalation Ladder. Meanwhile, Andrew Collingwood has been supping on a 2019 masterwork of geopolitics. Weaponized Interdependence is the title of a Henry Farrell and Abraham Newman paper, in which the pair argue that states with political authority over the central "hubs" in global economic networks: such as those for finance, data, and trade, can exploit this position to gain a strategic advantage. States sitting atop those nodes can exploit two effects: panopticon (information dominance) and choke point (cutting off access to irreplaceable hubs).Hormuz is one hub. Russia has its commodity hubs. And China has its manufacturing hub dominance. Put it all together, and the new Iran war has revealed a structural shift in global power, says Andrew Collingwood. Of course, this is a pay week — if you want access to this episode, you’re going to have to go on Patreon, and sign up. Simply type Multipolarity into the search bar and do the needful. Alternatively, you can now get premium episodes and our regular print work over on Substack for 12 USD a month. The choice is yours, but don’t get caught in no man’s land.
Transcribe →Crossing The Orange Line, Hard Bargain, Sino Silicon
2w ago01:03:41Tap to summarizeRussia has rained Oreshnik hypersonic missiles on Kiev. Four people killed. 549 missiles apparently shot down. This was a message. The Oreshnik travels at Mach 10. It was designed to deliver nukes. As fighting season starts in earnest, year five looks like it might be the start of real escalation. But, if Russian munitions start tiptoeing ever further West, could this be the year of, you know, real real escalation? Meanwhile, the US-Iran war peace talks are going well: Iran wants tolls on the strait. US says no. Iran wants 12 billion in reparations. US says no. Nuclear weapons? They’re being kicked into another round of talks-about-talks. So why is Little Marco still predicting a deal within days? Finally, Huawei say they have figured out a new approach to chip design that doesn’t require them to be smaller. “What happens when you’ve got a silicon chip the size of a dinner plate?” is one key question. Another is what happens when chips are no longer the ace card for Western leverage. Do check out our Substack if you can - https://multipolaritypod.substack.com/
Transcribe →Huawei With The Fairies, Land of The Falling Bond, Montezuma’s Other Revenge
3w ago00:51:21Tap to summarizeDonald Trump took Elon Musk and Jensen Huang to Beijing with him for 48 hours. But rather than the frat boy big weekend of their autistic dreams, the trip turned into a sequel to The Hangover.A dressing down from President Xi on Iran, a few more soybeans flogged, and some Boeings on order: was it worth Jensen’s $17 000 an hour time?Meanwhile, the Japanese 10 year bond yield has climbed above the Chinese one. This is something of a sorpasso. As the country struggles to keep its debt load manageable, there’s a sense of sag to the economy. Does the Japan of our techno-futurist imaginations now bear the same degree of relation to reality – as the Italy of our Fellini fantasies?Finally – another sorpasso – Mexican birth rates have dipped below those of America for the first time. Problem being, if the Mexicans don’t have sex, they can’t supply the US with a constant source of surplus labour.US conservatives have long been scornful of European immigration patterns, falling back on the cultural compatibility of their southern neighbours – but unless Pablo and Maria get back in the bedroom, they’ll soon be receiving the same rich blend of Africans and Middle Easterners as the EU.Do check out our Substack if you can - https://multipolaritypod.substack.com/
Transcribe →Two Audio Essays: The Oil Infrastructure Breakdown & How Epstein Could Bring Down The British Bond Markets
4w ago00:55:49Tap to summarizeThis week: a tale of two audio essays. Philip is going deep dive on the coming oil crisis.He sees a two-wave format emerging. The initial wave - dropping in a month or so, is already baked in. “The oil infrastructure is like a body,” he says. “if the heart stops pumping, the cells stop oxygenating, after a while they begin to die off.” They're "living chemical engineering systems" that need constant throughput. Shutdowns normally require years of planning and cost hundreds of millions. This will entail real damage to the global oil infrastructure, but eventually reparable. And then a second wave - if things persist into the autumn. Which will mean an inflationary depression. Real declines in global living standards.That future portends a potential schism – a genuine multipolar moment, as the Strait is hived off to genuine Iranian control, under the aegis of Russia and China. His message is simple: “Enjoy the beginning of summer…” While you still can. Meanwhile, Andrew has turned his attention towards Broken Britain. With the Prime Minister now holed below the waterline, is there still any potential universe in which Britain avoids a big bond market shock? What he’s calling The Madame Butterfly Effect explains how Jeffrey Epstein could crash the UK economy. During the period in which Mandelson left politics (after 2010), a new form of political operator emerged. What Matt Stoller calls 'entrepreneurial brokers'. An American gold mining company wishes to secure a stake in a new deposit in Siberia. A major British political donor wants to raise capital for his son’s hedge fund. An Italian politician might enjoy access to a luxury yacht twice a year.Mandelson found himself 'fixing things'.In the Unipolar world order, he says, nations specialised. Britain’s specialisation was financial services and openness to trade, which in turn allowed it to piggyback on US foreign policy.This, however, led to deindustrialisation and to associated policies such as openness to high immigration.But that system of integration, of the entrepreneurial brokers running things, is now capsizing, thanks to Epstein. The Labour Left will likely take charge after Starmer's resignation. They have no brokers. And no links into the real world of high level market traders who might smooth their passage.Another cheery week. Do check out our Substack if you can - https://multipolaritypod.substack.com/
Transcribe →Merz Sadist Bends, Bond Villain, Slick Dealing
May 700:11:15Tap to summarizeRemember Olaf Scholz? Just about? Remember when he sunk to the lowest opinion poll rating in German political history? Well the good news for anonymous hopeless former Chancellors is that the next beige technocrat in charge of Germany has just beaten his record. Plunging to 89% dissatisfied – with only 11% satisfied. Even with Macron as the most unpopular President ever, Starmer the least popular Prime Minister, Merz is more unpopular still. Our lead question this week is very simple: what the flaming fuck is going on in Germany? Meanwhile, more news just in on Europe’s cordless bungee ride: UK bond yields have spiked again. To 5.3% - the highest rate since 1998. They can’t go any higher – right? In the four years since the Truss contagion blew up the markets by hitting 5% and toppled the government, it’s a good thing the UK Treasury used that period to stop running massive deficits… right? Finally, the global oil market is beginning to resemble Argentina under Kirschner. You’ve got your official prices; and then your real prices. As reality continues to diverge from the markets, we’re asking: who is this mysterious Whale of Hormuz who keeps on fiddling with the international price mechanism? Of course, this being a pay week, you’ll need to sign up on Patreon or Substack if you want to hear that bit - only the real heads get to dine on the whole hog. That’s easily done - simply go to Patreon (https://www.patreon.com/multipolarity) or Substack (https://multipolaritypod.substack.com/) and sign up. It’s 8 or 12 dollars respectively, and you can cancel any time you like….
Transcribe →Multipolarity Dialogues: George Yeo On How Singapore Navigates Between China and America
Apr 3000:42:11Tap to summarizeAfter weeks of Iran drumbeats - time for something a bit different. George Yeo is the former Foreign Minister of SingaporeEducated at University of Cambridge and later at Harvard Business School, he's a former Brigadier-General in the nation's Air Force, and one of its most distinctive strategic thinkers - a man whose career tracks the rise of modern Asia itself.Yeo served in government for over two decades, holding key portfolios including Trade and Industry.As Singapore’s Foreign Minister from 2004 to 2011, he played a central role in shaping the country’s global posture.Since leaving frontline politics, Yeo has become a widely followed voice on geopolitics, civilisational identity, and the shifting balance of power in Asia.We wanted to ask him about the view from Singapore.Singaporean diplomats are renowned for their coolheaded, realist approach. They are highly skilled - and they have to be.A unique fragment of the complex geometry of South East Asia, Singapore has to balance its warm relations with the West, its unmatched status as a trading hub, and the rise of the Goliath on its doorstep - China.
Transcribe →Nothing Beats a Jet2 Holiday, It's A Kind Of Magyar, New York Slop Exchange
Apr 2300:42:29Tap to summarizeThe hot question this summer: Can you bring your own jerry can of diesel onto an EasyJet?As all the major airlines begin to cancel flights, bump surcharges, and post losses, the looming fuel crisis is finally hitting landfall - in the skies.Meanwhile, Hungary’s Prime Minister elect, Péter Magyar, has decided he wants to unilaterally remove the country’s President and the head of the Constitutional Court. Another win for Democracy and the Rule of Law.As his administration takes flesh, Magyar has declared that he will arrest Benjamin Netanyahu – last seen touring Budapest in May – the next time he enters the country. The International Criminal Court wants a word with BiBi, and the new regime is keen to be seen as a responsible global citizen.But what Magyar doesn’t seem to know is that this is an EU stalking horse for pulling him back into line, by linking it with another man with a price on his head – Vladimir Putin.Finally, the bot singularity is coming for the markets. Turns out it’s not just journalists and email jobbers who are quietly outsourcing their work to LLMs. Market traders are increasingly slopping out on the S&P. For now, this is about capturing delta. But what happens when everyone on the internet is a dog?
Transcribe →New Kid On The Blockade, Tisza Trailer
Apr 1600:52:45Tap to summarizeTrump blockades a blockade. The world holds its breath: will the Iranians blockade the blockade of the blockade? Are we destined for battleship Tetris piling up in the Gulf? Or is this just one more instance of the real war being the PR one? Then, with his Fidesz party reduced to a rump, what happens when the lynchpin of anti-Brussels energy falls out? The EU threw everything at Orbán, and it has paid off handsomely. Ursula von der Leyen clearly had her speech about moving to qualified majority voting written before the polls closed. Beyond a cost of living election in a landlocked medium-sized country, this is a story about the future of the EU. Apres Viktor, le deluge… IMPORTANT A Note on SubstackYou might already know that we have a Substack, and we’re growing it. (multipolaritypod.substack.com)We’ve run into a small issue, in that lately, a few people have been signing up on Substack, with the intent of getting the premium episodes of the podcast - which have so far been exclusive to Patreon. So we’ve decided to take the premium podcast to Substack, and bundle it with a new range of articles we’re in the process of producing.The deal is this - The Substack will be $12 a month - that will get you the podcast and then various paywalled articles on top. We’re not paywalling the Substack yet - all the pieces you can presently read are free of charge - but we have plans to start gating the odd piece. And as we said, we will gate the premium podcast on Substack. Of course, if you’re an existing subscriber, you can do whatever you like - Patreon, or Substack. The one gives you the pod only. The other will give you both. Obviously, your price won’t change unless you change platforms. So there’s no need to do anything.
Transcribe →Multipolarity Dialogues: Malcom Kyeyune on The Annihilation Gamble
Apr 900:46:36Tap to summarizeAnnihilation - no more.On Tuesday, the world was saved at five minutes to midnight. For the next two weeks, at least… But while the power plants are safe for now, the tragi-comic spectacle conflict in Iran has poked bigger holes in the global defence-industrial system. No one knows this better than Malcom Kyeyune, the Mad Mullah of Malmö, who is back on the pod to take a victory lap, after predicting much of what was to come in the first week of the war. This comes fresh on the back of his new essay in UnHerd - https://unherd.com/2026/04/the-twilight-of-americas-sky-knights/ - where he compares the US dilemma with the strategy of the Hussites in the earliest Reformation wars.
Transcribe →Premium Multipolarity: Iran On The Home Front - Europe Under Economic Siege
Apr 200:11:09Tap to summarize1973. Beyond the war, we’re hacking into the coming implications of the major energy crisis that’s brewing - as the last tankers to leave the Gulf trundle into the ports of Europe. From Volkswagen to venture capital, we’ll be charting what life looks like with oil at 150 or 200 dollars a barrel. Energy lockdowns. Rationing. Bond crises. All of these are being whispered in the press right now. As much as our leaders dare. But this is still the Ardennes Forest in spring 1940. Eerily quiet. Soon enough, the flamethrowers will burn through the Old Continent, and then begin to ricochet back onto America itself. Will this break up the order we once took for granted? Are we at the end of the US consumption model of economics? Will resource rich Canada end up speared by its bigger brother? We’ll be taking a grand view from the sidelines, as we start to figure out how to live through the latest version of the polycrisis - after 2008, after Covid, after Ukraine - this is the next major re-shaping of the world we live in. Of course, this is a premium Multipolarity episode - so you’ll have to be on the Patreon list if you want to listen to the full episode. That’s easily done - simply go to Patreon and sign up. It’s 8 dollars, and you can cancel any time you like….
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