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Welcome to the New Books Network. This is the Nordic Asia Podcast.
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Looking at the map. Central Asia is a land between empires, steppe and mountains, caravans, routes and border posts. For centuries, Russia and China have traced and erased lines across this space. Today those lines are shifting again. Central Asia is ethnically and linguistically diverse region. Home for Iranian, Turkic and Mongolian and radizzong for many other peoples. This diversity, along with its nomadic heritage, has shaped both the social, political features and the region's capacity to absorb and transmit cultural influences. Central Asia has historically held immense strategic importance due to its geographic location, varied populations and rule in the regional and global trade networks. The significance spans from ancient times to the contemporary geopolitical landscape. Central Asia was historically and is key crossroads of different cultures and centers of power. It formed the heartland of the Silk Road, a vast network of trade routes that connected China, the Middle East, South Asia and Europe. Empires rose and fell. The Khanyan tongue, the Kushang, Turkic and Uyghur Haganates latest great Mongolian empire. What mattered locally was continuity. Wells, markets, mountain passes. Power shifted, but routes endured. Roads move goods, roads carry ideas. Roads shape identities, trade and transit. Other region's original superpowers. A theme that returns in every era. The border story intensifies with Qin China and Russian Empire. The first big handshake and Shrove comes in 1689 with the treaty of Nerchinsk. It sets a frontier and opens regulated trade. By the 1850s 60s, the Qing are weakened by foreign wars and Russia advances. Meanwhile, along Zamor and Ussuri. The Treaty of Aigun and the Convention of Beijing. Redroom maps and remembered in China and unequal treaties. Meanwhile, on this steppe, Russia pushed into Central Asia and its Khanits Kokond annexed Khiva and Bukhara turned into protectorates. With the rise of modern empires, Central Asia became a zone of multiple strategic contests. Particularly during the Great game of the 19th century between the British and Russian empires. Russia's southward expansion into Central Asia was driven by both economic motives and the desire to counter British influence in India. For ordinary people, it means new governors, new taxis, new rail lines. The everyday weight of empires. Empires draw borders, empires move markets. Empires rename places. After 1917, Central Asia becomes the southern interior of the Soviet state. Moscow engineers republics and their borders Kazakh, Kyrgyz, Tajik, Turkmen, Uzbek and integrates the region into industry, cotton and pipelines. Across the frontier, revolutionary China consolidates under the Chinese Communist Party. During the Second World War, China was one of the Aries Big Four alongside the US and UK and ussr, which gives now a big feat to the both Russian and Chinese propaganda and the military parades. By the 1960s winter Emery split the Sino Soviet split is ideology, but also territory. In 1969, clashes flared at Djenbao Damasci on the Ussuri and in Xinjiang. No claritoric spikes. Diplomacy keeps a lead on it. Only in the 1990s 2000s borders are settled stepwise. In 2001, Beijing and Moscow sign a good Neighbour Lynas treaty. The Soviet era leaves many traces language, labor roots and bases. And China is watching and Planning independence in 1991 resets the border of five new states. Independence unlocked infrastructural geopolitics together with the internal multi trajectorial transition. National building and searching for the future passes. Russia and China stayed the strongest powers in the region. With Chinese presence and influence growing, Russia kept as a familiar security habit collective bizing Collective Security Treaty organization A post Soviet military alliance built in 1992. Russia also keeps basis of influence and legacy ties. Migration, media, military. China reentered carefully and brings capital first with border conference building via the Shanghai Five in 1996, then elevating to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in 2001. 2013 was a real hinge. In Astana, Xi Jinping unveiled the Silk Road economic belt, what we now call the belt and road, explicitly tying China's rights to Central Asian corridors. However, other actors so far gain a possibility to intensify their presence, agenda and interests, trying to balance the traditional influencers and suggesting alternative ways for Central Asian states to develop and integrate through various initiatives. And Turkey, Iran, Japan and Korea and of course the US and EU original doctrine emerge based on this. Among five Central Asian states, multifactoral foreign policies practiced in one or another forms. Choosing about unities, not sides, building counterbalances, playing with interdependencies. This followed up with the growth of internal and external competition. 2022 Joel Sebrithink the full scale war in Ukraine starts. Central Asia hedges governments ideologically distancing. Avoid endorsing Moscow, yet keep trade and migration open. Russia China trade surges to its record discounted Russian energy flows east Chinese machinery flows fast. More invest in yuan and robots now Russia needs markets, friends and logistics. China wants energy security and overland trade. The result, a partner rivalry across energy, transport, security, finance, soft power. This is displayed in different ways, of course, by Moscow and Beijing. And Central Asia sits between two giant developing the art of saying yes. And among various platforms and projects. The four large frames stay so far the main for Russia China Central Asia networking the Shanghai Cooperation Organization leaded by Beijing by now including 10 China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan Important recently India, Pakistan, Iran, Belarus switch of primary aims which were security coordination and now intensively growing economic and connectivity agenda in Tianjin Summit 2025 leaders pushed Geo economic tools proposed SEO Development bank joint bonds and a joint payment settlement system. China also touted open Baidu service to Shanghai Cooperation Organization states For it matters, the ICO is shifting from mostly security to adding finance and connectivity useful for Central Asia's corridors and for Russia China push on de dollarized trade Eurasian Economic Union dated by Moscow is Nazania network and tool, a common market launched in 2015 by Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus. The goal free movement of goods, services, capital and labor across the block. Recent changes in 2025 brought Iran Free Trade Agreement into central force in May 2025 United Arab Emirates deal signed an economic partnership agreement was signed in Minsk Mongolia interim deal and a more flexible condition for 3 years Important India Trek opened term of reference signed in Moscow and next seems to be and then Asia goes why it matters for Central Asia, especially Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, the Eurasian Economic Union is a tariff standards layer that shapes trade throughs now widening via Iran, United Arab Emirates plus Mongolia deals and India. Indonesia tracks another network BRICS intergovernmental bloc formed in 2009, finance arm in the new Development bank in Shanghai currently include 10 Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia practicing as partner while held or formal joining. Why this matters BRICS now has a large economic footprint and is tasting non western financing and local currency use which shapes energy, trade and financing options for the wider global south, of course Belt and Road Initiative China flagship global spanning infrastructure and connectivity program launched in 2013 covering transport, energy, digital and industrial parks. It sits alongside policy banks and funds like Silk Road Fund and periodic BRI forums. Official framing since 2019 High quality Green Claim Corporation By May 2025 more than 100 governments had signed the Memorandum of Understanding Participation ebbs and floors how it shifting Beijing talks small yet and beautiful and high quality BRI but 2024 25th also show a rebound of big resource packed deals often with co financing and tight risk control. Very recent development including record activity engagement hit an all time high surpassing 2024 full year pace. Africa and Central Asia for major destinations Latin America churn China Pakistan Economic Corridor reboot Central Asia rail link the China Kyrgyzstan Uzbekistan railway moved from plants to initial works with a fresh Porsche to accelerate in September 2025. It is a Direct Russia bypassing route into Central Asia energy tie ins Russia China advanced the power of Superior 2 pipeline with a legally binding memorandum underlining patience, leverage and the returns shifting energy map that BRI corridors intersect by this method, more corridors and energy security linkages align with BRI aims but with tighter economics and selective big bets Geopolitical lens membership is dynamic yet Beijing platform remains a primary channel for Global south infrastructure standards especially where BRICS SEO forums provide political cover the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Eurasian Economic Union BRICS and BRI each show both China Russia cooperation and sharp competition SCO corporate joint drills intel sharing via the regional terroristic structure and multipolar messaging Moscow brings security muscle Beijing adds economic cards compete agenda setting China pushes finance tools bank payments while Russia prefers the SCO not eclipse its own blocs like Eurasian Economic Union or its primacy in Central Asia Eurasian Economic Union cooperate China works around it Aligning BRI project with EAEU rules were useful Both benefit when Eurasian Economic Union signs free trade agreements like for example with Iran and United Arab Emirates that expand non western trade routes Compete in routing rulemaking Moscow tries to keep traffic through Russia centric corridors and standards Beijing backs by bus routes including China Kyrgyzstan Uzbekistan railway Trans Caspian middle corridor that dilute Russia's gatekeeper role in the region brics cooperate political cover and financing via new Development bank common push for non dollar options and bigger rise in IMF World bank debates compete leadership leverage China scale trade finance ndbweight risk turning BRICS into a China led project Russia leans on brics to show parity and avoid over reliance on waging belt and road initiatives Cooperate core brands with SEO security habits and taps BRICS NDB for co financing and local currency lending Aliens select projects with Eurasian Economic Union customs rules reinforce Russia China energy logistics like pipeline stain rail links Arctic FE projects coverage where interests coverage compete routes and control Beijing backs bypass corridors CKU railway Transcaspian middle corridor that dilute Russia's gatekeeper role pushes Yuan settlement Beidou ships and digital customs that undercut Russia centric rails and payments 6 operational control in dry port logistic parks Bottom line all four platforms reduce less than leverage but BRI adds the physical layer corridors capital standards that forces choices on routes rules and co operates the nodes Moscow and Beijing cooperate to widen the lane then compete over ownership standards, pricing power and narrative what among others to watch in the coming years? Three stress tests probably the first power Siberia two terms when pricing lands Zeergaz map tilt the second corridor competition China Kyrgyzstan Uzbekistan railway vice versa Kazakh roads the middle corridors real capacity, vice versa promises the third security Russia's staying power, vice versa. China's low visibility footprint. Cooperation seems in the headlines. Rivalry. Write the notes. Borders on paper are tidy. Borders in the field, across passes, deserts and rail yards are negotiated every day in Central Asia. Russia and China are not just neighbors, their habits and habits are hard to break. Central Asia is now focal arena of the international actors amid deep shifts in power balances and rules. It is a fast moving environment with open ended trajectories, multiple internal and external agents and situational theories where interests intersect.
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You have been listening to the Nordic Asia Podcast.