Podcast Summary

Podcast: New Books Network – People Power Politics Podcast
Episode: Two Decades On: The African Union, Power, and Africa’s Democratic Future
Date: November 10, 2025
Host: Timitayo Odeyemi (A)
Guest: Dr. Adeyui Akianla (B), Associate Professor of Politics and International Relations, University of Johannesburg; Co-editor: African Union and Agenda 2063: The Past, Present and Future

Overview

This episode marks the 20th anniversary of the African Union (AU) and uses the milestone, as well as the lens of Agenda 2063, to explore Africa’s political trajectory, democratic evolution, and the intersection between continental ambition and national realities. Dr. Adeyui Akianla, reflecting both his scholarship and hands-on engagement, discusses the AU's achievements, disappointments, and the road ahead for democracy and citizen-centered politics across Africa.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Origin of the Book and Project Context

• Genesis: The book African Union and Agenda 2063 emerged out of a symposium focused on assessing the AU's performance at its 20-year mark.
• Aim: Not just to critique, but also to celebrate the AU’s moderate achievements and use Agenda 2063 as a framework to assess progress.
• Institutional Background: The Institute for Pan-African Thought and Conversation at the University of Johannesburg initiated an African Union Studies unit to build capacity for future AU leadership and scholarship.
• Quote:

  “We just decided to commission a book...because of the quality of presentations, engagement, dialogues...we just decided to commission a book and it was sponsored by UC1 in West Africa...”
  — Dr. Akianla [03:45]

2. Where the African Union Stands Today

• Mixed Feelings: The AU is at a crossroads—there’s both pessimism and optimism regarding its performance.
• Institutional Limits:
  • AU is not a supranational body like the EU; member states are reluctant to cede sovereignty, which fundamentally limits AU’s authority.
  • The AU’s effectiveness mirrors the strength and political will of its member states.
  • Leadership often shows reluctance or slow response to continental issues.
• Summary View:

  “Africa is still better with the African Union around. It could have been worse without the African Union.”
  — Dr. Akianla [06:51]

3. People’s Participation and Elitism within the AU

• Elitist Character: The AU remains a project overwhelmingly managed by political elites (presidents, ministers).
• Disconnect: Most African citizens are unaware of the AU’s existence or activities.
• Limited Civil Society Input: Attempts (e.g., ECOSOC, youth ambassador programs) to integrate broader citizenry are insufficient.
• Memorable Moment:

  “Many Africans don’t even know there’s an organization called African Union...The voice of somebody like me would not matter to the African Union. So it’s not, not people centered at all.”
  — Dr. Akianla [08:38]

4. Democratic Norms vs. Realities: Protocols and Coups

• Rise and Fall of Democratization:
  • A period of embrace for liberal democracy replaced decades of military rule, but by the early 2020s, there was a reversal—witnessed in nearly nine countries under military (rather than civilian) governments.
  • The AU’s protocols on democracy are difficult to enforce, especially with incumbents manipulating constitutions to extend power.
• Case Highlight:

  “Paul Biya is still there in Cameroon. Since I’ve grown up, I’ve also always known Paul Bia to be the president of Ghana. He doesn’t even live in Africa.”
  — Dr. Akianla [12:13]

• Summary: Democracy in Africa is under severe strain, partly because AU’s responses are often reactive and limited.

5. AU's Actual Efficacy in Defending Democracy

• Limited Enforcement:
  • AU offers early warning and diplomatic engagement, including election observation, but lacks coercive powers.
  • Sanctions are largely symbolic, with limited impact on entrenched elites.
• Notable Quote:

  "If there is no enforcer, then that means what we have is a system close to state of nature."
  — Dr. Akianla [14:19]

• Regional Dependency: AU depends on member states and regional economic communities, leading to slow and inconsistent responses to coups and democratic backsliding.

6. Leadership and Institutional Reform within the AU

• Leadership Shortcomings:
  • Lack of continental visionaries akin to Mandela, Obasanjo, Wade, and Mbeki.
  • Recruitment and leadership selection within AU is based heavily on regional rotation rather than merit.
  • Corruption and commercialization of politics bar access to credible actors.
• Memorable Reflection:

  “Until AU becomes a supranational organization, it will remain a barking dog that cannot...you need to have some form of coercion.”
  — Dr. Akianla [18:32]

• Institutional Review: Kagame-initiated reforms (African solutions, AU self-financing) remain largely unimplemented.

7. Citizen Energy and Bottom-Up Mobilization

• Rise of Youth Activism:
  • Youth are leading large-scale protests and digital activism (e.g., Kenya, Nigeria’s #EndSARS, Senegal), using ICT to organize without centralized leadership.
  • While election participation is low among youth, their protest activity demonstrates burgeoning democratic resilience.
  • Suggests future potential for direct regime change movements, though warns of potential for violent outcomes if repression persists.
• Quote Highlight:

  “The future of democracy in Africa lies with the commitment of the youth to push for change...it may get to a time where the youth will mobilize directly for regime change.”
  — Dr. Akianla [25:01]

8. Why Youth Voter Turnout Is So Low

• Disillusionment: Widespread youth abstention from elections is rooted not in apathy, but in lack of faith in the electoral system and absence of credible alternatives.
• Example:

  “They know that the votes do not count some of the time or most of the time...And when you present two presidents, one is maybe 87, the other is 85, and you are asking the youth to come and vote. There’s no choice between the two to them.”
  — Dr. Akianla [27:52]

• Shifting Patterns: Decline of dominant parties (e.g., ANC in South Africa) signals potential for future change if youth engagement can be translated into voting.

9. Africa in the Emerging Global Order

• Non-Alignment and Multiplicity:
  • Africa’s diplomatic position is ever more pragmatic, open to partnerships based on continental benefit rather than historical allegiances.
  • Continued dependency on outside powers (China, Gulf states, the West) for funding and support complicates the AU's independent voice on democracy.
• Notable Moment:

  “The AU is open to possibly relating, advancing, collaborating...But they tend not to be aligned to any of the blocks, despite the fact that the blocks are becoming unclear now because of what many people also call global disorder.”
  — Dr. Akianla [32:10]

• COVID-19 as a Wake-Up Call: The pandemic exposed Africa’s vulnerability and prompted broader search for diverse alliances.

10. Defining Democratic Resilience: The 2063 Vision

• What Democratic Resilience Should Look Like:
  • Free elections, rule of law, peaceful transitions of power, and robust resistance to unconstitutional changes—whether military coups or term extensions.
• Key Reform:

  “Support for democracy in Africa is this absolute resistance to unconstitutional changes of government in whatever form. It’s not just about military coup, even unconstitutional tenure elongation, sit-tight-ism...”
  — Dr. Akianla [34:24]

• Ultimate Hope: Democratic resilience hinges on citizens holding governments accountable and removing avenues for undemocratic rule.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Africa is still better with the African Union around. It could have been worse without the African Union.”
  — Dr. Akianla [06:51]

• “Many Africans don’t even know there’s an organization called African Union...it’s not people centered at all.”
  — Dr. Akianla [08:38]

• “If there is no enforcer, then that means what we have is a system close to state of nature.”
  — Dr. Akianla [14:19]

• “Until AU becomes a supranational organization, it will remain a barking dog that cannot...”
  — Dr. Akianla [18:32]

• “The future of democracy in Africa lies with the commitment of the youth to push for change...”
  — Dr. Akianla [25:01]

• “There are no credible contestants...the youth have lost faith in elections.”
  — Dr. Akianla [27:52]

• “Support for democracy in Africa is this absolute resistance to unconstitutional changes of government in whatever form.”
  — Dr. Akianla [34:24]

Important Segments & Timestamps

• [01:39] – Story of how the book emerged
• [04:27] – AU at a crossroads: mixed feelings, institutional context
• [07:20] – Why AU remains an elite project
• [10:21] – The decline of democracy and AU’s response to coups
• [14:17] – Reality check: AU’s limited power to enforce democratic norms
• [18:30] – Leadership challenges and required reforms
• [23:27] – The power and limits of youth mobilization
• [27:23] – Why African youth abstain from voting
• [30:47] – Africa’s position in the emerging global order
• [34:00] – Defining democratic resilience and the key reform for 2063

Conclusion

This episode offers a candid, layered assessment of the African Union's journey after twenty years. It celebrates the Union’s role as a stabilizing, if limited, force, but pulls no punches on its elitism, lack of people-centered policies, and ongoing democratic deficits. The growing power of youth movements and Africa’s more pragmatic, multi-polar diplomacy are presented as sources of hope. Yet, the road to the “Africa we want" hinges, Dr. Akianla contends, on real accountability, credible leadership, and absolute rejection of unconstitutional rule.