Podcast Summary

Episode Overview

Podcast: New Books Network
Host: Leo Bader
Guest: Wolfgang Wagner, Professor of International Security at Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
Book Discussed: The Democratic Politics of Military Interventions: Political Parties, Contestation, and Decisions to Use Force Abroad (Oxford University Press, 2020)
Date: November 10, 2025

This episode explores the party politics underlying military interventions, focusing on how political parties debate, justify, and contest the use of force in democratic societies. Wolfgang Wagner shares insights from his research across different countries, party families, and time periods, challenging assumptions about consensus and polarization in foreign policy.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

The Importance of Party Politics in Foreign Affairs

• Initial Framing: Wagner identifies that governments are not just abstract entities but are run by party politicians with distinct visions for foreign policy. Their ideologies and justifications matter for decisions on the use of force.
  • "They are executives and they have executive responsibilities, but they are also party politicians...they differ in the vision they have of the international system." (Wagner, 01:57)
• Political parties are essential for meaningful democratic decision-making, offering alternatives and contestation that are crucial for accountability and legitimacy.

Prior Research & Wagner’s Contribution

• Previous studies often focused on simple left vs right distinctions, typically in just a few countries, with inconclusive findings regarding parties’ roles in initiating or escalating conflicts.
• Wagner advances this research by:
  • Examining a broader set of countries and parties,
  • Moving beyond binary left-right analysis,
  • Emphasizing the distinction between radical/moderate left and right parties.
  • His work contributes nuance and greater scope to the understanding of party-driven foreign policy.
    • "The radical left is very different from the moderate left, theoretical right is different from conservative parties." (Wagner, 03:40)

Democratic Peace Theory & Party Contestation

• Traditional Democratic Peace research centers on institutions and governmental accountability.
• Wagner argues the “actors that fill [institutions] with life”—i.e., political parties—are fundamental to real democratic politics and, therefore, must be incorporated into explanations for peace and for democratic uses of force.
  • "There’s no democratic politics without political parties. And then again these ideologies matter a lot." (Wagner, 05:00)
• Party ideologies inform not just peace, but the justifications for war or military intervention by democracies.

The Normative Debate: Should Parties Influence Foreign Policy?

• Parties are often unpopular, but Wagner insists they make democratic accountability possible.
  • "Without party political contestation, there’s no meaningful democratic control." (Wagner, 08:15)
• Appeals for “unity” in times of crisis might undermine democratic oversight by stifling alternatives.
• The public’s opinions are often shaped by cues from party leaders, making contestation even more important for real democratic input.

Research Approach: Cases and Methods

• Wagner used:
  • Parliamentary voting data (focus on roll calls, especially in the U.S. and post-Cold War Europe),
  • Expert surveys and party manifestos (with the caveat that manifestos are less precise than voting records),
  • Qualitative analysis of parliamentary debates (manual coding of arguments and justifications).
• U.S. case: 200+ years of data show that contestation in foreign policy is longstanding; periods of high consensus (e.g., the 1950s-1960s) are the anomaly.
• European cases: Broader party spectrum due to proportional representation allows a more nuanced look at party families.

Institutional Variation

• Differences in parliamentary power and executive authority shape the available data and the nature of contestation:
  • Germany has a strong parliamentary check on military force.
  • Some countries (e.g., Poland) lack transparency or parliamentary involvement, resulting in less data on contestation.

Key Findings: Patterns of Contestation

• Contestation is Normal: Military interventions are rarely exempt from party-political debate; exceptions (like the early Cold War) are historically atypical.
• Inverted U Pattern:
  • Radical left: Consistently oppose most interventions.
  • Moderate left/Green/Social Democrats: Skeptical but sometimes support.
  • Center-right/Christian Democrats: Most supportive.
  • Radical right: Ambivalent—tend to be both more isolationist and critical of international law, resulting in unpredictable voting.
  • This pattern holds across diverse democracies (France, UK, Germany, Italy, South Korea, Japan).
  • "The coherence of party families is larger than the coherence within countries." (Wagner, 13:42)

Beyond Left-Right: New Dimensions?

• Scholars propose a second ideological dimension (Green/Alternative/Libertarian vs. Traditional/Authoritarian/Nationalist).
• For now, the left-right spectrum remains the best predictor of party behavior on military intervention, though Wagner notes this may change with shifts in issues and new party types (e.g., German Bundesara Wagenecht party).
  • "As far as the data in the book are concerned...left-right axis is the best guide to understanding party politics of foreign policy." (Wagner, 21:38)

Differences in Justifications and Argumentation

• Right-wing parties: More likely to use “enemy images” (demonizing adversaries, highlighting atrocities).
• Left-wing parties: Employ “spiral model thinking”—empathizing with the adversary, seeking negotiated solutions.
• Centrist/Liberal parties: Emphasize alliance solidarity.
• Governments often try to frame interventions in multifaceted terms to appeal to different party groups and build coalitions.
  • "There are real differences...enemy images, you find more on the right side of the political spectrum." (Wagner, 26:32)
  • "On the left side you find something that is called spiral model thinking...attempt...to empathize is very strong on the left." (Wagner, 26:54)

Strategy and Party Behavior

• Besides ideology, parties act strategically based on opposition or government status, coalition-building prospects, and electoral concerns.
• Opposition parties often default to criticism, regardless of ideological leanings.
• Parties might “soft-pedal” their true position for future coalition opportunities or to avoid isolating themselves electorally (example: Giorgia Meloni repositioning on Ukraine to remain viable as Italy’s government leader).
• Parties adjust their visible positions based on mandate framing and leverage parliamentary procedure for strategic ambiguity.
  • "Political parties...are also either in government or in opposition. And if in opposition, there are huge incentives to just be critical." (Wagner, 29:31)

Broader Implications and Future Research

• Wagner’s findings suggest that party contestation patterns are deeply institutionalized and often transnational within party families.
• The framework can extend to broader foreign policy areas: treaty ratifications, arms control, aid policy, etc.
• Ongoing research includes expanding case studies beyond Western Europe and North America, particularly to Eastern Europe, East Asia, South America, and Africa.
  • "I think arms exports, arms control would be really interesting...the entire spectrum of foreign policy would be interesting to analyze." (Wagner, 34:34)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the need for party contestation:
  “Without political parties you do not have any meaningful democratic decision making process.”
  — Wolfgang Wagner, 07:55

• On unity vs. democracy during crises:
  “...after 9/11 in the United States, the congressional majorities favoring...the use of force were enormous. But these are also not great moments of democratic control.”
  — Wolfgang Wagner, 08:45

• On historical contestation:
  “Military interventions, foreign policies is not exempted from democratic politics.”
  — Wolfgang Wagner, 18:03

• On ideological framing:
  “Enemy images, you find more on the right side...on the left side you find something that is called spiral model thinking, which essentially means to empathize with the opponent.”
  — Wolfgang Wagner, 26:32

• On left-right as a predictor:
  “Up to now, the left-right axis is the best guide to understanding party politics or foreign policy.”
  — Wolfgang Wagner, 21:38

• On future research:
  “There’s a lot to be explored still. And it would be really interesting to see how some of the concepts and findings...to what extent they can be found in some other countries or to what extent party politics just works very differently.”
  — Wolfgang Wagner, 35:02

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Timestamp | Segment | |-----------|----------------------------------------------| | 01:47 | Introduction to Wolfgang Wagner and his book | | 01:50 | Why focus on party politics in foreign affairs | | 03:40 | Existing research and Wagner’s novel contributions | | 04:20 | Democratic peace theory and party-level analysis | | 06:55 | The normative debate about party involvement | | 11:28 | Research design: cases, methods, and data used | | 15:04 | Variation in institutional arrangements | | 17:20 | Key findings: Inverted U curve of support | | 21:38 | Testing non-left-right explanatory axes | | 26:32 | Differences in argumentation and justification | | 29:31 | Strategic behavior and positioning by parties | | 34:34 | Extending the research to broader policy areas |

Conclusion

Wagner’s research demonstrates that democratic politics—especially through party contestation—are deeply embedded in foreign policy, including decisions on military interventions. The behavior of political parties, their ideologies, and strategic positioning significantly shape not only the actions of governments abroad but also the quality and accountability of democratic deliberation. Wagner’s results show that contestation is the norm, not the exception, and that even in areas often thought immune from partisan politics, democracy is alive and (contentiously) well.

For listeners: The episode offers a comprehensive, comparative angle on how democracy functions—or struggles—when the stakes are high, making it a valuable listen for anyone interested in international politics, party systems, or democratic theory.