US and Israel launched a large-scale joint military operation against Iran on Saturday, 28th February; Iranian state television officially confirmed the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Iran launched immediate retaliatory missile and drone attacks against Israel, and multiple US military installations across the Gulf and multiple Gulf states, including the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain.
Iran’s IRGC declared the Strait of Hormuz closed to international navigation until further notice; IRGC also announced on Sunday that they hit 3 US and UK oil tankers with missiles in the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz.
US President Trump suggested that the fighting with Iran could go on for four weeks; US Secretary of War Hegseth is to hold a press conference at 08:00EST/13:00GMT.
Crude futures surged at the reopen but retreated from best levels, spot gold rallied on a haven bid but then mildly pulled back. APAC stocks were mostly pressured, while European equity futures indicate a drop at the cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 1.5%.
Russia is said to consider a halt in peace talks unless Ukraine cedes land. Talks planned for the week ahead will be decisive on whether or not the sides can agree on terms to end the war.
Looking ahead, highlights include German Retail Sales (Jan), EZ/UK/US Final Manufacturing PMIs (Feb), US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Feb), Japanese Unemployment Rate (Jan), Speakers including BoE’s Taylor & Ramsden, BoC’s Kozicki & Macklem, Earnings from Riot Platforms, Norwegian Cruise Line & ASM International.

SNAPSHOT

Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.

IRAN CONFLICT

US and Israel launched a large-scale joint military operation against Iran on Saturday, 28th February, with explosions reported across Tehran shortly after 09:30 local time (06:00 GMT / 01:00 EST), and additional strikes were confirmed in Isfahan, Qom, Karaj and Kermanshah, while the Israeli military confirmed it launched an additional wave of strikes on Sunday morning, targeting Iran's ballistic missile and aerial defence systems.
Iran launched immediate retaliatory missile and drone attacks against Israel, and multiple US military installations across the Gulf and multiple Gulf states, including the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain. Iranian state television officially confirmed the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei following Saturday’s US–Israeli “decapitation strike” on his secure residence and office compound in central Tehran. Furthermore, IRGC declared the Strait of Hormuz closed to international navigation until further notice, while major tanker operators and global trading houses have halted crude, fuel and LNG shipments through the waterway. IRGC also announced on Sunday that they hit 3 US and UK oil tankers with missiles in the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz.
Iran launched a fresh wave of missile and drone attacks on Sunday, while Iranian sources stated that 27 US bases across the region were targeted, along with Israel’s military headquarters in Tel Aviv. It was also reported that Iran fired missiles towards British military bases in Cyprus and that rockets landed near British troops in Bahrain.
Israeli Air Force launched a new wave of attacks on Iranian regime targets in Tehran early on Monday and bombarded Hezbollah strongholds in the southern suburb of Beirut, while Hezbollah fired rockets towards Northern Israel for the first time since the ceasefire agreement, and it was also reported that Hezbollah parliamentary bloc head Mohammed Raad was killed in an Israeli raid.
US President Trump said the US military launched “major combat operations” in Iran with the objective of defending the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime. Trump said people in Iran should stay at home and that bombs will be dropping everywhere, while he called for Iranians to take over the government.
US President Trump said that Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei had died, and he was informed that they destroyed and sank nine Iranian ships, as well as largely destroyed the naval headquarters. Trump separately commented that the military operations are ahead of schedule and that 48 leaders were killed in strikes on Iran, while he also stated that Iranian leaders want to talk and he has agreed to talk, but couldn’t say if it would happen soon, according to Atlantic Magazine and Daily Mail. Furthermore, Trump suggested that the fighting with Iran could go on for four weeks, while he also stated on Sunday that they have hit hundreds of targets in Iran under ‘Operation Epic Fury’ and combat operations will continue in full force until all objectives are complete.
US President Trump said he could lift sanctions on Iran if its next leader proves pragmatic and that he had three very good choices for Iran's next leader, although he also commented that the people he considered for Iran's next leader died in the air attacks.
US Secretary of War Hegseth is to hold a press conference at 08:00EST/13:00GMT. White House separately announced that US Secretary of State Rubio and Secretary of War Hegseth are to brief a full Congress on Tuesday.
US officials told Al Jazeera that the strikes on Iran are focused on military targets and will be far more extensive than the US strikes last June, while the US reported that three US service members died and five were seriously wounded amid the operations against Iran.
Israeli PM Netanyahu said the US and Israel operations are to remove the existential threat from the Iranian regime, while Israeli officials characterised the action as a “pre-emptive strike” to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. Israel ordered the shutdown of some natural gas fields as a security measure following the US-Israel strike on Iran, while it pre-approved a USD 2.9bln supplement to the defence budget to fund the war with Iran.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry called for an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council and said it will defend the country with full determination, while it said that the US and Israel attacked military and defence targets, as well as civilian infrastructure. It was separately reported that Iran warned that those responsible for killing Supreme Leader Khamenei will face consequences.
Iran's Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council Larijani was said to seek nuclear talks with the US. However, it was later reported that Larijani said US President Trump has brought chaos to the region with "false whims" and is now worried about more casualties among US forces, while he added that Trump is sacrificing American soldiers for Israel's quest for power and stated that Iran will not negotiate with the US.
Islamic Resistance in Iraq said it conducted 23 operations using drones targeting US air bases in Iraq and the region.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE increased their criticism regarding Iran’s strikes across the Gulf, while a senior UAE policy adviser called for Iran to return to its senses and to deal with its neighbours with reason and responsibility.
US Democrats are pushing for a vote this week on a resolution to curtail US President Trump’s authority to launch strikes against Iran, while senior Senate Democrat Warner said that Trump’s rationale for the strikes on Iran isn’t convincing and that Trump owes an explanation to the families of US service members killed in action. It was also reported that House Speaker Johnson told lawmakers the vote on war powers is likely to occur Thursday, according to ABC.
FBI Director Patel put the bureau’s counterterrorism and counterintelligence teams on high alert after the US and Israel conducted a military strike on Iran.
UK PM Starmer said British planes are ‘in the sky’ in a coordinated defence against Iran, and the UK Ministry of Defence said RAF jets took out an Iranian drone heading to Qatar. It was separately reported that PM Starmer said the UK will not take part in military strikes on Iran, but has granted the US request to use its military bases to strike Iran, while the UK was reportedly drawing up options for a mass evacuation of citizens from the Middle East.
German Chancellor Merz voiced concern regarding the fallout from the US and Israeli strikes on Iran, ahead of a key trip to Washington this week. Merz also stated that he will discuss the Middle East with US President Trump on Tuesday in Washington and that the regime in Tehran has no legitimacy to stay in power.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said regarding the US operation against Iran that China opposes the use of force in international relations, while he also stated it is unacceptable to openly kill the leader of a sovereign country and institute regime change.
Russian Foreign Ministry said news regarding the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader is met with...