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Get up to speed with everything you need to know ahead of today's open with the Newsquawk rundown
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US Market Open: Concerns raised on the Strait of Hormuz with the IRGC announcing a ban on US, Israeli and European vessels
Mar 500:02:55Tap to summarizeIran's Deputy Foreign Minister says Iran has not sent any messages to the US to end the conflict, but are instead focused on self defence efforts, according to Sky News Arabia.Deputy Commander of the Iranian Army Central Command said Iran has not closed the Strait of Hormuz; IRGC struck a US oil tanker while announcing US, Israeli and European vessels are not allowed through the strait. European bourses trade mixed, STMicroelectronics surges on new chip; US equity futures softer despite positive AVGO earnings.DXY back on a firmer footing, antipodeans lag on China's new growth target and metals prices.Fixed benchmarks lower as energy prices continue to drive price action.Crude benchmarks remain firmer; Spot gold trades slightly firmer, whilst base metals are lower after China forecasts lowest GDP figure since 1991.Looking ahead, highlights include US Challenger Job Cuts (Feb), US Export/Import Prices (Jan), Jobless Claims, South Korean CPI (Feb), ECB Minutes (Feb), Speakers including ECB President Lagarde & Fed's Bowman, Earnings from Marvell, Costco, Kroger & Victoria's Secret.EUROPEAN TRADEEQUITIESEuropean bourses (STOXX 600 +0.4%) are mixed, with the IBEX 35 (+1.0%) leading while the SMI (-0.2%) lags slightly as distributor Kuehne+Nagel (-1.9%) weighs on the index.European sectors are tilted positively, with Utilities (+1.1%) outperforming while Basic Resources (-0.6%) sit at the bottom of the pile despite gains in metal prices. Technology (+0.8%) has been benefiting today after STMicroelectronics (+5.6%) announced a new generation of MCUs to boost performance of tiny smart devices while meeting extreme cost, size and power limitations.US equity futures (NQ/ES -0.1%, RTY -0.4%) are slightly lower. Broadcom (+7.0% pre-market) reported quarterly earnings and revenue above expectations, and issued stronger-than-expected revenue guidance, driven by robust demand for AI chips.Foxconn (2317 TT) February (TWD) Revenue 596.8bln, +8.1% Y/Y; (prev. 730bln in January, +36% Y/Y); noted visibility into Q1 aligns with market expectations.JD.Com (JD) Q4 2025 (USD): EPS 0.08 (exp. 0.07), Revenue 50.4bln (exp. 50.7bln); announces annual dividend of USD 0.50/ordinary share or USD 1/ADS.Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) Q1 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 2.05 (exp. 2.02), Revenue 19.3bln (exp. 19.22bln). To buy back shares for USD 10bln.NVIDIA (NVDA) reportedly refocuses TSMC (2330 TT) capacity as export controls stall China sales in which it is shifting output away from H200s intended for the Chinese market to Vera Rubin products, according to FT.Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflowClick for the additional newsFXDXY is mildly firmer this morning and currently trades within a 98.66 to 99.20 range; upside which follows on from some mild pressure in the prior session, as investors favoured risk assets. Haven inflow have resumed given the overall environment has not changed – the Gulf remains at war, and the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut, and there are currently little signs of easing. It is worth highlighting that Sky News Arabia reported commentary via the Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister who suggested that Iran “is prepared to abandon its nuclear program” on the condition that the US presents a rewarding alternative offer. This spurred risk-on trade, with the index falling from 99.08 to 98.75 over the course of around 15 minutes. Later Iranian press reported that Iran was prepared to get rid of its uranium stockpiles, in exchange for “something good” – though this proposal was made pre-war.EUR and GBP are once again pressured, as focus remains firmly on geopolitics and the inflationary/growth impacts of the net-importers. The pairs are off worst levels, following the aforementioned commentary via the Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister. There have been a few ECB speakers today, notably de Guindos suggesting that the ECB could change policy stance if inflation expectations change as a result of the war. For the GBP, ING points out the outperformance in the GBP against the EUR – the bank suggests that asset managers are unwinding previously held long EUR trades; moreover, markets have been pushing back calls for near-term cuts.JPY is mildly lower, with USD/JPY currently trading within a 156.44 to 157.35 range. Some modest strength in the JPY was seen on Bloomberg reports that officials see little chance of a rate hike in March, but will not rule one out in April.Antipodeans underperform this morning, pressured by the downside across the metals complex and in the aftermath of mixed Australian trade data – a factor which has resulted in the Aussie lagging. Moreover, China set its 2026 GDP growth target at between 4.5-5% (as expected), nonetheless, the lowest since 1991, as Beijing seeks flexibility to manage economic challenges including weak consumption, a property-sector crisis, slowing population growth and global trade tensions.FIXED INCOME-- A bearish start for fixed with energy dynamics once again dictating price action. USTs and Bunds lower by 11 and over 50 ticks, respectively. In brief, the ongoing Middle East conflict is bolstering yields and, in turn, weighing on benchmarks themselves. USTs down to a 112-15+ low, notching an incremental new WTD base. If the move continues, we look to recent support at 112-06, 112-04, 111-31, 111-26, 111-13+.For the US, and generally, today's focus is firmly on any geopolitical updates, particularly around Iran's uranium stockpiles in light of recent reporting. That aside, the day features weekly claims (does not coincide with the BLS window), Challenger jobs in addition to the Revelio and Chicago Fed statistics. Of note for PCE, the latest export/import prices will hit. The speaker docket has Fed's Bowman (voter), and while we are not guided to a text, there will be a Q&A.Within Europe, the story is much the same. The docket ahead is headlined by the ECB Minutes, though given recent developments, they are likely even more stale than typical. No real reaction to supply from France or Spain. As it stands, Bunds are at a 127.67 trough, approaching the WTD 127.50 base.Gilts experienced another morning of catch-up trade, but this time with a bearish bias given the lead from peers and movements in energy prices. No reaction to the latest DMP, the views of which are now somewhat stale. Currently holding around 20 ticks off a 91.46 low, but still lower by over 40 ticks on the day.EU is said to considers joint defence bonds amid concerns around the Iran war, Welt reported; a proposal is to be presented; defence bonds could be backed by member states.UK sells GBP 3.5bln 4.00% 2029 Gilt: b/c 3.49x (prev. 3.66x), avg. yield 3.810% (prev. 3.821%), tail 0.4bps (prev. 0.3bps).France sells EUR 13.449 vs exp. EUR 11.5-13.5bln 3.50% 2035, 1.25% 2036, 2.50% 2043 and 4.10% 2046 OAT.Spain sold EUR 5.34bln vs exp. EUR 4.5-5.5bln 2.35% 2029, 3.00% 2033 and 3.50% 2041 Bono and EUR 0.592bln vs exp. EUR 0.25-0.75bln 1.15% 2036 IL.Japan sold JPY 530bln 30-yr JGBs; b/c 3.66x (prev. 3.64x), and average yield 3.398% (prev. 3.615%).COMMODITIESCrude benchmarks remain underpinned by the ongoing geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, despite facing mild pressure during the early European session. WTI and Brent are trading at the upper ranges of USD 74.97-78.09 and USD 81.50-84.74/bbl, respectively. The crude complex faced some pressure during the early European session. Brent saw some pressure following news that the Deputy Commander of the Iranian Army Central Command said Iran has not closed the Strait of Hormuz and is currently handling ships passing through the Strait in accordance with relevant international rules and existing agreements, CCTV reported. Further pressure was seen, following comments from the Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister that Iran is ready to abandon its nuclear program on the condition that the US presents a rewarding alternative offer, Sky News Arabia reports; adds no message was sent to the US to end the conflict.Spot gold initially edged higher but then stalled near the vicinity of USD 5,200/oz. Price action was relatively tame compared to recent moves, and there was little reaction to news that Venezuela's Minerven inked a multimillion-dollar deal with Trafigura to sell up to 1,000 kilos of gold destined for US markets. XAU and XAG are trading in the upper end of USD 5120.82-5158.77/oz and USD 80.523-85.545/oz, ranges respecti...
Transcribe →EU Market Open: Strikes continue with Iran threatening to hit Dimona nuclear reactor; DXY remains strong as data awaits
Mar 500:03:53Tap to summarizeAPAC stocks rebounded from yesterday's sell-off as the region took impetus from the positive handover from Wall Street, where the Nasdaq led the advances on tech strength, while geopolitics remained in focus.US President Trump said they are in a very strong position, and that Iran's missiles and launchers are being wiped out, while he added that they will continue forward.Iranian Foreign Minister says Washington will regret targeting Iranian frigate in international waters, Sky News Arabia reported.China set its 2026 GDP growth target at 4.5%-5.0%, as expected (prev. ‘around 5%’), and CPI at around 2%, while it plans to issue CNY 800bln in new policy financing tools and aims to create more than 12mln urban jobs.European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.9% after the cash market closed with gains of 1.7% on Wednesday.Looking ahead, highlights include Swedish CPIF prelim. (Feb), EZ Retail Sales (Jan), US Challenger Job Cuts (Feb), US Export/Import Prices (Jan), Jobless Claims, South Korean CPI (Feb), ECB Minutes (Feb) & BoE’s DMP, Speakers including ECB President Lagarde, de Guindos & Fed's Bowman, Supply from Spain, France & UK, Earnings from Marvell, Costco, Kroger, JD.com & Victoria's Secret.SNAPSHOTClick for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.IRAN CONFLICTIranian Foreign Minister says Washington will regret targeting Iranian frigate in international waters, according to Sky News Arabia.US President Trump said they are in a very strong position and that Iran's missiles and launchers are being wiped out, while he added that they will continue forward. It was separately reported that Trump said he is discussing with advisers what the US role in Iran will be after the military conflict ends, according to WSJ.White House Press Secretary said the Iranian regime is being crushed and that President Trump is permanently extinguishing Iran's nuclear plans, while she added the US goal is to destroy Iran's ballistic missiles and that Trump believes the country supports the Iran action. Furthermore, Spain has agreed to cooperate with the US military, and Trump expects all European allies to cooperate.US Central Command has asked the Pentagon to send intelligence officers to its headquarters in Florida to support the war for at least 100 days.US Senate voted 53-47 to block the war powers resolution that would force President Trump to end Iran's strikes without Congress approval.Western officials said the rate of Iranian ballistic missile launches is declining, which shows that the US and Israeli campaign to destroy launchers and weapon stockpiles is working, according to FT.Israel expects a weeks-long war against Iran and said goals are to dismantle the regime's military infrastructure, including the IRGC, as well as Iranian nuclear sites, military production facilities and space and cyber capabilities, according to FT.Israel announced it was conducting a fresh widespread wave of strikes in Tehran.IDF said rockets were fired from Iran towards Israel and defence systems were intercepting the threat, while Iranian sources claimed that missiles hit Tel Aviv and that Israeli air defences failed.Iran reportedly starts a shift towards governing for a prolonged war, according to FARS.Iranian military senior official said if the US and Israel pursue a ‘regime change’ scenario in practice, the final effective missiles will target the Dimona nuclear reactor and all regional energy infrastructure, according to Iran Nuances.Iranian senior cleric Amoli said shedding the blood of Israelis and Trump is what is required of devout Shi'ite Muslims today, according to Iran state media.Iran is targeting US and UK vessels and ships, regardless of flag, that carry cargo for Israel in the Gulf, according to an IRGC commander.Iranian intelligence sent word to the US on potential talks to end the war, but US officials said there were no active negotiations, according to CNN.Iranian Kurdish armed groups were in talks with the Trump administration about a potential role in the US-Israeli campaign against the Iranian regime, while it was separately reported that Kurdish forces in Iraq launched a ground military offensive into Iran against the regime. However, the Kurdistan regional government said reports of Kurdish militants crossing the border with Iran are false. Furthermore, Iranian media reported that Iran bombed Kurdish headquarters in Sulaymaniyah, Iraq.Arab intelligence sources estimate that the Houthis in Yemen are planning to attack vital targets inside Saudi Arabia using missiles and drones as they have done in the past, according to Kan News.Iraq’s Islamic Resistance warned that any foreign intervention in Iraq or the region, including by NATO, France, Germany or Britain, would make their interests legitimate targets.US official said Iran tried to target Turkey's Incirlik base, according to The New York Times. However, the Iranian military later denied firing any missiles at Turkey and affirmed respect for its sovereignty.Saudi Ministry of Defence announced the interception and destruction of three cruise missiles outside Al-Kharj, southeast of Riyadh, while it also intercepted a drone east of the Al-Jawf region.US Secretary of State Rubio and Saudi Foreign Minister discussed regional stability and Iran threats.Spain's Foreign Minister denied that Spain is going to cooperate militarily with the US.US TRADEEQUITIESUS stocks were firmer on Wednesday, with outperformance seen in the Nasdaq, as consumer discretionary and technology sectors led the gains. The majority of sectors were green, aside from energy and consumer staples. Energy gave back some of its recent gains while crude prices settled flat. Crude initially rallied overnight amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, but ultimately pared with weakness seen on reports that Iran reached out to the CIA to discuss terms to end the conflict. However, this was later denied by Iran, while the US was sceptical of any willingness to off-ramp in the short term anyway. Tensions are still high amid reports from Kan that the Houthis are planning to attack vital targets inside Saudi Arabia, and Saudi Arabia reportedly said it will retaliate if attacked.However, Saudi Arabia said direct intervention in Iran would have dramatic implications for oil prices, but if it escalates, then a reassessment may be necessary. Separate reports noted that if the US and Israel pursue regime change, all regional energy infrastructure will be targeted. Meanwhile, in response to the conflict, Aluminium Bahrain and QatarEnergy declared force majeure. Lastly, on the subject, Kurdish forces in Iraq have launched a ground military offensive into Iran against the regime, i24News reported. Aside from geopolitics, the focus was on US data and the Fed Beige Book. ADP and the ISM Services PMI beat expectations (more below), while the Fed's Beige Book reported a slight-moderate increase in economic activity, stable employment levels, and modest price increases.SPX +0.78% at 6,870, NDX +1.51% at 25,094, DJI +0.49% at 48,739, RUT +1.06% at 2,636.Click here for a detailed summary.TARIFFS/TRADEUS is to pay interest if it is ordered to pay importers' tariff refunds, according to reports.Canadian PM Carney said he met with business leaders in Sydney on Wednesday to forge new partnerships that will create thousands of high-paying careers across energy, critical minerals and AI sectors.NOTABLE HEADLINESFed's Beige Book stated that overall economic activity increased at a slight to moderate pace in seven of the twelve Federal Reserve Districts, while the number of Districts reporting flat or declining activity increased from four in the prior period to five in the current period.White House submitted the nomination of Kevin Warsh for Fed Chair to the Senate for a term of four years and to be a member of the Fed Board of Governors for a term of fourteen years. Furthermore, White House confirmed to Punchbowl that Warsh will be replacing Miran on the Board of Governors.APAC TRADEEQUITIESAPAC stocks rebounded from yesterday's sell-off as the region took impetus from the positive handover from Wall Street, where the Nasdaq led the advances on tech strength, while geopolitics remained in focus.ASX 200 ...
Transcribe →EU Market Open: Trump gives assurances to tankers passing through Hormuz; KOSPI triggered circuit breaker
Mar 400:03:01Tap to summarizeAPAC stocks extended on losses with markets roiled by the widening conflict in the Middle East; KOSPI saw a double-digit percentage drop and had triggered a circuit breaker with declines led by shipbuilders and shipping firms.Iran hit more than 10 tankers that ignored warnings and warns ships against transiting the Strait of Hormuz, according to FARS.US President Trump said, "If necessary, the United States Navy will begin escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, as soon as possible".US President Trump announced with immediate effect that the US is to provide political risk insurance and guarantees (at a very reasonable price) for the financial security of all maritime trade, especially energy, travelling through the Gulf.European equity futures indicate a slightly lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.4% after the cash market closed with losses of 3.6% on Tuesday.Looking ahead, highlights include Swiss CPI (Feb), Global Final Composite/Services PMIs (Feb), EZ Unemployment (Jan), PPI (Jan), US ISM Services PMI (Feb), NBP Policy Announcement. Speakers include ECB’s Cipollone, de Guindos & BoC's Macklem. Supply from Germany, Earnings from Broadcom, Merck & Deutsche Post.SNAPSHOTClick for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.IRAN CONFLICTUS President Trump said everything was knocked out in Iran and they felt strongly that Iran was going to attack first, based on the way talks were going. Trump stated that Iran no longer has air protection and detection facilities, while adding that there was another hit on the new leadership.US and Israeli forces targeted Tehran, Urmia, Isfahan, and Karaj with heavy air strikes, while the IDF announced it conducted a wave of attacks against missile launch sites, defence systems, and infrastructure belonging to the Iranian regime.US Central Command said they have bombed nearly 2,000 targets in Iran and destroyed 17 Iranian ships, while it stated there are no Iranian ships sailing in the Gulf or Strait of Hormuz or Gulf of Oman today.US President Trump said if we have slightly high oil prices, it could be for a little while, but they will drop and could even be below the levels before. Trump also announced with immediate effect that the US is to provide political risk insurance and guarantees (at a very reasonable price) for the financial security of all maritime trade, especially energy, travelling through the Gulf. Furthermore, he said that "If necessary, the United States Navy will begin escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, as soon as possible".US and Israel are seeking to foment an armed uprising inside Iran using an armed Kurdish fighting force, while it was separately reported that the CIA is working to arm Kurdish forces.US Senator Schumer said the Senate will vote on the Iran war powers resolution on Wednesday.Israeli Home Front reported sirens sounding in several towns in Israel's Upper Galilee, while the IDF identified missiles fired by Iran towards Israel and was working to intercept them. Furthermore, the IDF issued an evacuation notice to 16 villages in southern Lebanon.Israel Defence Force said they have killed the commander of the Iranian Qods Force's Lebanon Corps.IDF spokesman said the Iranian regime transferred some components of the nuclear program to secret sites, but they found them and struck them.Iran hit more than 10 tankers that ignored warnings and warns ships against transiting the Strait of Hormuz, according to FARS.Iran's Assembly of Experts elected Ali Khamenei's son Mojtaba as the next Supreme Leader, according to Iran International.There has reportedly been a 70% decrease in launch volumes from Iran.IAEA's Grossi said there has been no evidence of Iran building a nuclear bomb, while he added that Iran's large stockpile of near-weapons-grade enriched Uranium and refusal to grant IAEA full access are cause for serious concern.US Embassy in Riyadh noted continuous threats of Iranian missile strikes and drones targeting areas in Saudi Arabia, while Saudi Arabia said it will take all necessary measures to defend its security. There were also separate reports that Saudi defences intercepted and destroyed nine drones after they entered the kingdom's airspace, and that a suspected Iranian drone attack hit the CIA station in Saudi Arabia.Sirens and explosions were reported in Bahrain, while Kuwait said two Kuwaiti army personnel were killed on Monday as a result of Iran's attacks against the country.French President Macron said France will send air defences and a warship to Cyprus.US TRADEEQUITIESUS stocks were sold on Tuesday, albeit closed off lows, as the escalating Middle Eastern conflict continued to dominate trade and newsflow with the war showing no signs of slowing down, as the attacks from all sides continued far and wide, with Iran continuing to attack US bases in the Middle East, while it was reported that the UAE is considering taking military action to stop Iranian missile and drone strikes on the country, with reports also suggesting that Iran hit the US consulate in Dubai. As such, WTI and Brent saw extensive gains, but then pulled back from intraday peaks after US President Trump confirmed actions to attempt to resume shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, which is currently "closed".SPX -0.94% at 6,817, NDX -1.09% at 24,720, DJI -0.83% at 48,501, RUT -1.75% at 2,609.Click here for a detailed summary.TARIFFS/TRADEUS President Trump said they must charge tariffs on nations that play with their money, while they have a 5-month period to go at 15% tariffs and are doing the various studies on tariffs during this time.US President Trump said he will be going to China in a little while and has a very good relationship with China. Furthermore, Trump said he told Treasury Secretary Bessent to cut off all dealings with Spain, and he is not happy with the UK either, while he stated that Spain has been very uncooperative and that the UK has ruined relationships, which he said is a shame.US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the Supreme Court reaffirmed President Trump's ability to implement an embargo.German Chancellor Merz told US President Trump of the need to complete the US-EU trade deal to end the uncertainty.Spain's government said regarding President Trump's threat to cut trade, that the US must comply with international law and the bilateral EU-US trade agreement.Japanese Trade Minister Akazawa is to travel to the US on Thursday and will meet US Commerce Secretary Lutnick and discuss Japan-US investment.NOTABLE HEADLINESFed's Kashkari (2026 voter) said it is too soon to assess the Iran conflict's impact on inflation and that it could have an impact on monetary policy. Kashkari added that policy is in a good place and uncertainty around tariffs has increased, but he does not think the latest round of tariffs will have a fresh inflation impact. Kashkari separately commented that the Fed can sit tight as war clouds the outlook, while he also noted that one or two cuts later this year could be appropriate if inflation cools, but war in the Middle East could also create conditions that would justify an extended pause.APAC TRADEEQUITIESAPAC stocks extended losses with markets roiled by the widening conflict in the Middle East, with the UAE considering taking military action to stop Iranian missile and drone strikes on the country, while it was also estimated that Saudi Arabia could attack Iran soon.ASX 200 slumped with the index dragged lower by underperformance in the commodity-related sectors, while better-than-expected Australian GDP data for Q4 failed to inspire a turnaround.Nikkei 225 dipped beneath the 54,000 level with mining and materials the worst performers amid disruption concerns.KOSPI saw a double-digit percentage drop and had triggered a circuit breaker with declines led by shipbuilders and shipping firms, while large exporters such as Samsung, SK Hynix and Hyundai Motor also suffered.Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the bloodbath in the region as participants digested mixed Chinese PMI data in which the official NBS Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs disappointed, but the private sector RatingDog PMI accelerated to multi-year highs, while attention is also...
Transcribe →US Market Open: US to continue to carry out large-scale combat operations in Iran; crude and DXY continue to rise
Mar 300:02:37Tap to summarizeUS President Trump said the US continues to carry out large-scale combat operations in Iran, while he added that Iran could have missiles capable of reaching America soon and had refused to cease its pursuit of nuclear weapons.US and China trade negotiators are to meet mid-March prior to the Trump-Xi summit, with Treasury Secretary Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng expected to convene in Paris at the end of next week to discuss bilateral matters.European bourses remain under pressure, Utilities hit further as QatarEnergy halts production; US equity futures reverse Monday's gains.DXY continues its war-related ascent, CHF underperforms, GBP lags into the Spring Statement.Fixed income falters as energy soars, causing heightened inflation risks.Crude prices continue to climb as the Iranian war enters day four; Precious metals slip. Looking ahead, highlights include US RCM/TIPP (Mar), New Zealand Export/Import Prices, Australian Composite PMI Final (Feb). Speakers include Fed’s Williams & Kashkari, UK Spring Statement. Earnings from CrowdStrike, Best Buy, Target, AutoZone, Bayer, Adidas, & Continental.EUROPEAN TRADEEQUITIESEuropean bourses (STOXX 600 -3.4%) continue to selloff as risk tone remains sour, with participants using this opportunity to profit from the trend higher, which is also exacerbating losses. Banks remain the hardest-hit, affecting the FTSE MIB (-4.5%) and IBEX 35 (-4.7%) the most. The broader STOXX 600 has now dipped below the 50DMA at 611.7, the index closed at 633.9 only two days ago.Unlike Monday, in which Energy (-2.0%) was supported by the higher oil prices, all sectors are in the red. As stated above, Banks (-4.6%) and Insurance (-4.6%) are the worst performing sectors due to the effects of higher oil on growth and the increased war-risk claims. Surging Nat Gas prices have failed to support Utilities (-4.7%), due to the energy disruption caused by QatarEnergy (which accounts for nearly 20% of global LNG trade) stopping the production of LNG.US equity futures (ES -1.7%, NQ -2.3%, RTY -2.5%) are following their European peers, despite managing to close Monday with gains.US mulls capping NVIDIA (NVDA) H200 sales to 75,000 per Chinese buyer, while AMD's (AMD) MI325 chips would also fall under the US AI accelerator cap.Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflowClick for the additional newsFXDXY continues to extend higher, with the geopolitical environment remaining turbulent, and with recent US commentary suggesting no near-term solution to the war. In brief, the IRGC continues to threaten any ship attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, whilst President Trump warned of larger strikes against Iran. (Newsquawk analysis on the war on the headline feed at 08:15 / 03:15 ET). For the time being, DXY resides at the upper end of a 98.43 to 99.22 range, and now trading at levels not seen since late Jan’26; another leg higher could see the retest of January 19 high at 99.47, and then the round 99.50 mark thereafter.EUR and GBP continue to remain pressured by the ongoing Iranian war – both are net-importers of energy, as such, have been considerably pressured in the past couple of session. Geopols aside, the EUR saw some very modest upticks on the hotter-than-expected HICP – this is a bit stale, given the ECB will likely have to consider the inflationary/growth impacts of higher energy prices. UK-specific traders will also be attentive of the UK’s Spring Statement – it is likely to be a “non-event”, though focus will remain on the OBR, DMO forecasts and the implied headroom for Chancellor Reeves. (A Newsquawk primer is on the headline feed at 09:01 GMT / 04:01 EST)CHF continues to underperform vs peers. As above, Switzerland is a net-importer of energy, with downside also exacerbated by reports that the SNB is increasingly prepared to intervene. This stems the haven-related strength, that would otherwise be expected during times of geopolitical turmoil. Sticking with havens, the JPY also continues to weaken against the USD. USD/JPY now trades around 157.82, and is gradually edging its head back towards the touted intervention zone of 158-160. Further upside would likely see the resurgence of jawboning via Japanese officials. This perhaps explains why the JPY is holding up better vs peers (albeit is still lower vs USD). Earlier, Japanese Unemployment ticked a touch higher in January, but had little impact on the currency.FIXED INCOMEFixed benchmarks under pressure as energy prices continue to climb and bias yields higher. A narrative that is sparking a hawkish repricing for central banks, with the near-term odds of a BoE cut trimming significantly and ECB pricing implying a small chance of tightening by end-2026.Bunds are down by 88 ticks at most, to a 128.75 trough. If the move continues, we look to 128.03 from the week of February 13th before the figure and then a cluster of lows from the first few weeks of the year between 127.51 to 127.82. If those are taken out, the YTD base is 126.98 before the 126.75 March contract low.Gilts gapped lower by 54 ticks and then fell almost a full point lower to a 91.58 trough, lower by 143 ticks at worst. Pressure is a function of the energy narrative as discussed above. A point that has seen the odds of BoE easing in the near-term trim significantly, with pricing now less than a 50% chance of a March cut vs. c. 85% at the end of last week.For the UK, the docket is theoretically headline by the Spring Statement. Though, the expectation is firmly for Chancellor Reeves to be a non-event. Nonetheless, the forecasts and DMO remit will be of note; Newsquawk primer available at 09:01GMT.USTs are in-fitting directionally, though magnitudes are less pronounced than its UK or even German peers. Down to a 112-24 base with losses of c. 13 ticks. Ahead, the docket features a handful of data points before Fed speak from Williams and Kashkari (2026), with a text and Q&A expected from both. Though, of course, any fresh geopolitical escalation/moderation will dominate the narrative.Germany sells EUR 3.825bln vs exp. EUR 5.0bln 2.50% 2031 Bobl: b/c 1.19x (prev. 1.65x), average yield 2.43% (prev. 2.40%), retention 23.5% (prev. 23.8%).Japan sold JPY 2.04tln 10yr JGBs, b/c 3.30x (prev. 3.02x), average yield 2.122% (prev. 2.249%).Australia sold AUD 300mln Mar 2047 bonds, b/c 4.7, avg. yield 5.1378%.COMMODITIESWTI and Brent futures remain firmer within USD 70.41-74.19/bbl and USD 76.74-79.27/bbl, with prices underpinned as the Iran conflict entered a fourth day, with the IRGC threatening to attack any ship trying to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, while US President Trump warned of larger strikes against Iran (analysis on the Newsquawk feed).Nat Gas has been in focus amid the upside from the war, further exacerbated by Qatar's shuttering of output yesterday. Qatar accounts for roughly one-fifth of global LNG supply. Analysts warn that every week of downtime removes 1.6-1.8mln tons of LNG from the global market. Dutch TTF currently trades +23% intraday at EUR 54.805/MWh vs around EUR 32/MWh on February 27th.Precious metals are trading slightly lower. Silver faces a steeper drop thus far, down 4.6%, whilst spot gold is down 0.4%. XAG and XAU trade within the narrow ranges of USD 5,284.62-5,292/oz and USD 84.84-85.13/oz, respectively. Continuous dollar strength continues to hamper gains in the precious metals space despite weaker global risk sentiment amid geopolitical tension between the US and Iran, which increases haven demand for precious metals. Some analysts also suggest that profit-taking has been the key driver behind the slight pressure on the yellow metal. That being said, BMI forecasts that gold should rise above USD 5,600/oz this week with further upside to USD 5,850-6,500/oz if the conflict lasts 2-3 weeks.Base metals are also lower, hampered by global risk sentiment amid geopolitical tension between the US and Iran. 3M LME copper trades within the lower range of USD 12.798-13.281k/t.IAEA confirms recent damage to entrance buildings of Iran's underground Natanz fuel enrichment plan.US President Trump will meet with US Treasury Secretary Bessent and the Energy Secretary Wright at 14:00EST/19:00GMT on Tuesday.Fox News reporter citing US Central Command said Strait of Hormuz is not closed despite the IRGC pronouncement.Oil production at Kazakhstan's Tengiz (CVX) field reportedly dropped by 30% on the 1st of March from February's average output to 415k/BPD, sources reported.Turkey is reportedly assessing the revival of a fuel tax mechanism aimed at ...
Transcribe →EU Market Open: Gulf war continues, with Trump vowing to hit back after US embassy strike
Mar 300:03:10Tap to summarizeUS President Trump said the US continues to carry out large-scale combat operations in Iran, while he added that Iran could have missiles capable of reaching America soon and had refused to cease its pursuit of nuclear weapons.The US is said to be preparing for a 'pickup' in attacks in Iran during the next 24 hours, according to a senior unnamed official cited by CNN.US and China trade negotiators are to meet mid-March prior to the Trump-Xi summit, with Treasury Secretary Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng expected to convene in Paris at the end of next week to discuss bilateral matters.APAC stocks were pressured with risk appetite weighed down by geopolitics as the Iranian conflict entered a fourth day, and with US President Trump warning of larger strikes to come.European equity futures indicate a negative cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 1.0% after the cash market closed with losses of 2.5% on Monday.Looking highlights include EZ Flash HICP (Feb), US RCM/TIPP (Mar), New Zealand Export/Import Prices, Australian Composite PMI Final (Feb). Speakers include Fed’s Williams & Kashkari, UK Spring Statement. Supply from the Netherlands & Germany, Earnings from CrowdStrike, Best Buy, Target, AutoZone, Bayer, Adidas, & Continental.SNAPSHOTClick for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.IRAN CONFLICTUS President Trump said the US continues to carry out large-scale combat operations in Iran, while he added that Iran could have missiles capable of reaching America soon and had refused to cease its pursuit of nuclear weapons. Furthermore, Trump said they are ahead of time projections, and had projected 4-5 weeks, but can go far longer and said whatever it takes regarding the Iran war timeline.US President Trump said we will soon find out what the retaliation will be for the attack on the US embassy in Riyadh and for US service members killed, while he doesn’t think boots on the ground will be necessary, according to NewsNation's White House Correspondent Kellie Meyer.US VP Vance said President Trump wants to make sure Iran never has nuclear weapons, while he added that the US has a lot of capacity in Iran and would like someone to take over the power there who has made a long commitment not to possess a nuclear weapon.US Secretary of State Rubio said Iran was producing hundreds of missiles a month and the US is successful in removing the Iranian Navy threat, while he added that regime change is not an explicit objective of the mission and they are not postured for ground forces in Iran, as well as stated that the hardest hits are yet to come in Iran.US CENTCOM said sustained operations targeted and eliminated IRGC command and control infrastructure, Iranian air defence systems, missile and drone launch positions, and military airfields.US military said it has struck over 1,250 targets in Iran since the start of operations on Saturday.US is said to prepare for a 'pickup' in attacks in Iran during the next 24 hours, according to a senior unnamed official cited by CNN.Washington is expected to intensify its activity to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities, according to Israel's Channel 12 cited by Al Hadath.Israeli PM Netanyahu said this is going to be a quick and decisive action, while he added that they are not going to have an endless war.Israeli official said they are preparing for war until the start of next month and ground forces in Iran are under consideration, while a ground operation in Iran may be similar to what happened in Venezuela, according to Al Hadath citing Axios.IDF announced a new wave of strikes on Iran and reportedly attacked government buildings in Tehran, while it targeted Iran's internal security HQ and bases. IDF also targeted Hezbollah command centres and weapons storage facilities in Beirut.Israeli military intercepted two drones from Lebanon and ordered an evacuation of dozens of towns in Lebanon, while Hezbollah said it targeted the Ramat David Air Base in northern Israel.Iran launched new strikes on maritime targets, according to Tasnim.Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said regional countries should pressure the US for striking Iran, while he stated Tehran is not at war with regional countries and that US bases in the region are legitimate Iranian targets. Araghchi said they do not consider the current war a regional war, but rather it is a war between Iran and America whose effects have extended to the region.IRGC Quds Force said enemies who killed Khamenei will not be safe, "even at home".Advisor to the IRGC said the Strait of Hormuz has been closed and they will target any ship that tries to cross, while they will target the oil pipelines of the enemies and will not allow the export of the region. However, a Fox News reporter cited the US Central Command stating that the Strait of Hormuz is not closed despite the IRGC pronouncement.Islamic Resistance in Iraq said it carried out a drone swarm attack on a hotel in Erbil housing US troops.Iran reportedly launched a drone strike on the US Arifjan base in Kuwait while explosions were heard in Riyadh's diplomatic quarter in Saudi Arabia and a fire was reported at the US Embassy in Riyadh following a blast, although an official said the US Embassy in Riyadh was empty at the time of an Iranian drone strike and there were no injuries.IRGC said it targeted a US base in Bahrain with missiles, while there were also reports of explosions in Cyprus.Qatar downed Iranian jets as Tehran targeted oil and gas sites amid the escalating Gulf crisis, while Qatar condemned Iranian attacks on its territory in a letter to the UN Security Council and said it reserves the complete right to respond.US Air Force tankers were forced to leave Spain after the government refused to allow airbases to be used for Iran attacks.US TRADEEQUITIESUS stocks were choppy on Monday while energy prices and gold were bid with T-notes bear flattening and the dollar firmer in response to the US/Iran conflict. Over the weekend, the US struck Iran, killing the Supreme Leader Khamenei, with Iran responding by hitting US bases across the Middle East, but also by closing the Strait of Hormuz and threatening that ships that cross the Strait will be fired upon. The initial reaction saw stocks open lower while T-notes caught a bid, with energy prices surging. Oil remained bid but saw slight selling around the closing bell as Secretary of State Rubio said that Treasury Secretary Bessent and Energy Secretary Wright will announce measures to mitigate oil costs on Tuesday. Natgas rocketed on the geopolitical tensions, but surged even further after QatarEnergy announced it is to stop the production of LNG, due to military attacks on operating facilities in Ras Laffan industrial city and Mesaieed industrial city. Nonetheless, stocks clawed back most of the losses to close mixed, with the Russell rallying, while other indices were flat.SPX +0.04% at 6,882, NDX +0.13% at 24,993, DJI -0.15% at 48,905, RUT +0.90% at 2,656.Click here for a detailed summary.TARIFFS/TRADEUS President Trump’s administration reportedly lost a push to delay the tariff refund fight.US and China trade negotiators are to meet mid-March prior to the Trump-Xi summit, with Treasury Secretary Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng expected to convene in Paris at the end of next week to discuss bilateral matters.US mulls capping NVIDIA (NVDA) H200 sales to 75,000 per Chinese buyer, while AMD's (AMD) MI325 chips would also fall under the US AI accelerator cap.NOTABLE HEADLINESFed Chair nominee Warsh’s attempt to shrink the Fed's balance sheet would reportedly only proceed slowly as he would face resistance over his plan to scale back one of the Fed's most powerful tools, according to FTAPAC TRADEEQUITIESAPAC stocks were pressured with risk appetite weighed down by geopolitics as the Iranian conflict entered a fourth day, and with US President Trump warning of larger strikes to come.ASX 200 was led lower by weakness in mining and materials, with broad weakness seen in nearly all sectors aside from energy and financials.Nikkei 225 slumped beneath the 57,000 level amid the Iranian conflict and global disruption, with sentiment also not helped by a rise in the unemployment rate and as higher energy prices stoked inflationary concerns, which could narrow policy space f...
Transcribe →US Market Open: Risk off sentiment sparked by US-Israel-Iran war; NQ -1.4%, Brent +6%
Mar 200:03:20Tap to summarizeUS and Israel launched a large-scale joint military operation against Iran on Saturday, 28th February; Iranian state television officially confirmed the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.Iran launched immediate retaliatory missile and drone attacks against Israel, and multiple US military installations across the Gulf and multiple Gulf states, including the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain. Global equities hit on risk tone, energy and defence names benefited, while airlines were significantly affected.Iran’s IRGC declared the Strait of Hormuz closed to international navigation until further notice; IRGC also announced on Sunday that they hit 3 US and UK oil tankers with missiles in the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz.DXY surging amid geopolitics; G10s pressured across the board. USTs initially gapped higher, before waning as traders assess the inflationary impacts of the US/Israel-Iran war.Crude surges on weekend geopolitics but capped by potential global economic impact; Precious metals see haven appeal.Looking ahead, highlights include US Final Manufacturing PMI (Feb), US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Feb), Japanese Unemployment Rate (Jan), Speakers including BoE’s Taylor & Ramsden, BoC’s Kozicki & Macklem, Earnings from Riot Platforms, Norwegian Cruise Line & ASM International.IRAN CONFLICTUS and Israel launched a large-scale joint military operation against Iran on Saturday, 28th February, with explosions reported across Tehran shortly after 09:30 local time (06:00 GMT / 01:00 EST), and additional strikes were confirmed in Isfahan, Qom, Karaj and Kermanshah, while the Israeli military confirmed it launched an additional wave of strikes on Sunday morning, targeting Iran's ballistic missile and aerial defence systems.Iran launched immediate retaliatory missile and drone attacks against Israel, and multiple US military installations across the Gulf and multiple Gulf states, including the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain. Iranian state television officially confirmed the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei following Saturday’s US–Israeli “decapitation strike” on his secure residence and office compound in central Tehran. Furthermore, IRGC declared the Strait of Hormuz closed to international navigation until further notice, while major tanker operators and global trading houses have halted crude, fuel and LNG shipments through the waterway. IRGC also announced on Sunday that they hit 3 US and UK oil tankers with missiles in the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz.Iran launched a fresh wave of missile and drone attacks on Sunday, while Iranian sources stated that 27 US bases across the region were targeted, along with Israel’s military headquarters in Tel Aviv. It was also reported that Iran fired missiles towards British military bases in Cyprus and that rockets landed near British troops in Bahrain.Israeli Air Force launched a new wave of attacks on Iranian regime targets in Tehran early on Monday and bombarded Hezbollah strongholds in the southern suburb of Beirut, while Hezbollah fired rockets towards Northern Israel for the first time since the ceasefire agreement, and it was also reported that Hezbollah parliamentary bloc head Mohammed Raad was killed in an Israeli raid.US President Trump said the US military launched “major combat operations” in Iran with the objective of defending the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime. Trump said people in Iran should stay at home and that bombs will be dropping everywhere, while he called for Iranians to take over the government.US President Trump said that Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei had died, and he was informed that they destroyed and sank nine Iranian ships, as well as largely destroyed the naval headquarters. Trump separately commented that the military operations are ahead of schedule and that 48 leaders were killed in strikes on Iran, while he also stated that Iranian leaders want to talk and he has agreed to talk, but couldn’t say if it would happen soon, according to Atlantic Magazine and Daily Mail. Furthermore, Trump suggested that the fighting with Iran could go on for four weeks, while he also stated on Sunday that they have hit hundreds of targets in Iran under ‘Operation Epic Fury’ and combat operations will continue in full force until all objectives are complete.US President Trump said he could lift sanctions on Iran if its next leader proves pragmatic and that he had three very good choices for Iran's next leader, although he also commented that the people he considered for Iran's next leader died in the air attacks.US Secretary of War Hegseth is to hold a press conference at 08:00EST/13:00GMT. White House separately announced that US Secretary of State Rubio and Secretary of War Hegseth are to brief a full Congress on Tuesday.US officials told Al Jazeera that the strikes on Iran are focused on military targets and will be far more extensive than the US strikes last June, while the US reported that three US service members died and five were seriously wounded amid the operations against Iran.Israeli PM Netanyahu said the US and Israel operations are to remove the existential threat from the Iranian regime, while Israeli officials characterised the action as a “pre-emptive strike” to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. Israel ordered the shutdown of some natural gas fields as a security measure following the US-Israel strike on Iran, while it pre-approved a USD 2.9bln supplement to the defence budget to fund the war with Iran.Other incremental updates can be seen below.EUROPEAN TRADEEQUITIESEuropean bourses (STOXX 600 -1.3%) are entirely in the red due to instability in the Middle East. In brief, the US-Israeli war with Iran has entered its third day, with all sides conducting large-scale airstrikes. Airspaces have been closed, oil refineries and tankers have been hit, and threats of further attacks continue (see "Iran Situation Report - Day 3" on the headline feed for more detailed analysis). The FTSE 100 (-1.0%) is being supported, albeit posting slight losses, helped by the major oil names (BP +1.8%, Shell +2.2%) as oil prices rise. The banking-heavy IBEX 35 (-2.2%) and FTSE MIB (-1.7%) have been hit the hardest on the prospect of increased war-risk claims.From a sectoral perspective, Energy leads the pile, given the strength in underlying oil prices; Defence names are also stronger across the board, given the increased tensions; Rheinmetall +1.3%, BAE +5.2%, Leonardo +4.7%. One other key space of the market that has benefited is shipping names such as Maersk (+4.5%), Kuehne+Nagel (+0.4%), due to higher freight rates.US equity futures (ES -1.0%, NQ -1.4%, RTY -1.4%) have followed the global risk tone; in recent trade, contracts are attempting to rebound off worst levels, though remain significantly in the red.ASML (ASML NA) is planning to expand into advanced packaging for AI chips, and is exploring larger chip sizes and scanner systemsCiti upgrades UK equities on Middle East conflict due to commodity and aerospace exposure.Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflowClick for the additional newsFXDXY gains but trades off best levels as participants flock to the USD in light of the weekend geopolitics, with the initial US-Israel strike on Iran expanding throughout the Gulf and Middle East. Analysts at ING highlight three main channels that keep the USD in demand: 1) the US is less dependent on imported energy vs Europe and most of Asia. Higher energy hurts importers (EUR, JPY), whilst European Nat Gas opened up around 25%. 2) Markets are scaling back expectations for rate cuts from the Fed, with higher energy also proving headwinds for disinflation. A “bearish flattening” in the US yield curve (short-end yields rising) supports the dollar. 3) Higher energy and reduced Fed easing expectations could reverse capital flows into EM, which would further support the USD. DXY is around the middle of a 97.768-98.566 range after hitting highs around an hour after the European cash open.GBP is the worst performer amid the RAF base in Cyprus being struck by an Iranian drone. The UK has confirmed it is not participating in offensive operations but is permitting defensive use of bases. GBP/USD slipped from a 1.3456 peak to a 1.3314 trough.EUR has been hit by the aforementioned surge in energy prices, with EUR/USD slumping from near 1.1800 to lows of 1.1698 before trimming losses at the time of writing. ING suggests EUR/USD could slide back toward the 1.1575–1.1600 area if escalation continues.JPY and CHF are softer despite their haven appeals, with the USD sought after given its reduced dependency on energy imports. USD/JPY is +0.6% in a ...
Transcribe →EU Market Open: Geopolitics in focus as Gulf war sparked over the weekend; Global risk hit
Mar 200:03:08Tap to summarizeUS and Israel launched a large-scale joint military operation against Iran on Saturday, 28th February; Iranian state television officially confirmed the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.Iran launched immediate retaliatory missile and drone attacks against Israel, and multiple US military installations across the Gulf and multiple Gulf states, including the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain.Iran’s IRGC declared the Strait of Hormuz closed to international navigation until further notice; IRGC also announced on Sunday that they hit 3 US and UK oil tankers with missiles in the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz.US President Trump suggested that the fighting with Iran could go on for four weeks; US Secretary of War Hegseth is to hold a press conference at 08:00EST/13:00GMT.Crude futures surged at the reopen but retreated from best levels, spot gold rallied on a haven bid but then mildly pulled back. APAC stocks were mostly pressured, while European equity futures indicate a drop at the cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 1.5%.Russia is said to consider a halt in peace talks unless Ukraine cedes land. Talks planned for the week ahead will be decisive on whether or not the sides can agree on terms to end the war.Looking ahead, highlights include German Retail Sales (Jan), EZ/UK/US Final Manufacturing PMIs (Feb), US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Feb), Japanese Unemployment Rate (Jan), Speakers including BoE’s Taylor & Ramsden, BoC’s Kozicki & Macklem, Earnings from Riot Platforms, Norwegian Cruise Line & ASM International.SNAPSHOTClick for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.IRAN CONFLICTUS and Israel launched a large-scale joint military operation against Iran on Saturday, 28th February, with explosions reported across Tehran shortly after 09:30 local time (06:00 GMT / 01:00 EST), and additional strikes were confirmed in Isfahan, Qom, Karaj and Kermanshah, while the Israeli military confirmed it launched an additional wave of strikes on Sunday morning, targeting Iran's ballistic missile and aerial defence systems.Iran launched immediate retaliatory missile and drone attacks against Israel, and multiple US military installations across the Gulf and multiple Gulf states, including the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain. Iranian state television officially confirmed the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei following Saturday’s US–Israeli “decapitation strike” on his secure residence and office compound in central Tehran. Furthermore, IRGC declared the Strait of Hormuz closed to international navigation until further notice, while major tanker operators and global trading houses have halted crude, fuel and LNG shipments through the waterway. IRGC also announced on Sunday that they hit 3 US and UK oil tankers with missiles in the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz.Iran launched a fresh wave of missile and drone attacks on Sunday, while Iranian sources stated that 27 US bases across the region were targeted, along with Israel’s military headquarters in Tel Aviv. It was also reported that Iran fired missiles towards British military bases in Cyprus and that rockets landed near British troops in Bahrain.Israeli Air Force launched a new wave of attacks on Iranian regime targets in Tehran early on Monday and bombarded Hezbollah strongholds in the southern suburb of Beirut, while Hezbollah fired rockets towards Northern Israel for the first time since the ceasefire agreement, and it was also reported that Hezbollah parliamentary bloc head Mohammed Raad was killed in an Israeli raid.US President Trump said the US military launched “major combat operations” in Iran with the objective of defending the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime. Trump said people in Iran should stay at home and that bombs will be dropping everywhere, while he called for Iranians to take over the government.US President Trump said that Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei had died, and he was informed that they destroyed and sank nine Iranian ships, as well as largely destroyed the naval headquarters. Trump separately commented that the military operations are ahead of schedule and that 48 leaders were killed in strikes on Iran, while he also stated that Iranian leaders want to talk and he has agreed to talk, but couldn’t say if it would happen soon, according to Atlantic Magazine and Daily Mail. Furthermore, Trump suggested that the fighting with Iran could go on for four weeks, while he also stated on Sunday that they have hit hundreds of targets in Iran under ‘Operation Epic Fury’ and combat operations will continue in full force until all objectives are complete.US President Trump said he could lift sanctions on Iran if its next leader proves pragmatic and that he had three very good choices for Iran's next leader, although he also commented that the people he considered for Iran's next leader died in the air attacks.US Secretary of War Hegseth is to hold a press conference at 08:00EST/13:00GMT. White House separately announced that US Secretary of State Rubio and Secretary of War Hegseth are to brief a full Congress on Tuesday.US officials told Al Jazeera that the strikes on Iran are focused on military targets and will be far more extensive than the US strikes last June, while the US reported that three US service members died and five were seriously wounded amid the operations against Iran.Israeli PM Netanyahu said the US and Israel operations are to remove the existential threat from the Iranian regime, while Israeli officials characterised the action as a “pre-emptive strike” to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. Israel ordered the shutdown of some natural gas fields as a security measure following the US-Israel strike on Iran, while it pre-approved a USD 2.9bln supplement to the defence budget to fund the war with Iran.Iran’s Foreign Ministry called for an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council and said it will defend the country with full determination, while it said that the US and Israel attacked military and defence targets, as well as civilian infrastructure. It was separately reported that Iran warned that those responsible for killing Supreme Leader Khamenei will face consequences.Iran's Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council Larijani was said to seek nuclear talks with the US. However, it was later reported that Larijani said US President Trump has brought chaos to the region with "false whims" and is now worried about more casualties among US forces, while he added that Trump is sacrificing American soldiers for Israel's quest for power and stated that Iran will not negotiate with the US.Islamic Resistance in Iraq said it conducted 23 operations using drones targeting US air bases in Iraq and the region.Saudi Arabia and the UAE increased their criticism regarding Iran’s strikes across the Gulf, while a senior UAE policy adviser called for Iran to return to its senses and to deal with its neighbours with reason and responsibility.US Democrats are pushing for a vote this week on a resolution to curtail US President Trump’s authority to launch strikes against Iran, while senior Senate Democrat Warner said that Trump’s rationale for the strikes on Iran isn’t convincing and that Trump owes an explanation to the families of US service members killed in action. It was also reported that House Speaker Johnson told lawmakers the vote on war powers is likely to occur Thursday, according to ABC.FBI Director Patel put the bureau’s counterterrorism and counterintelligence teams on high alert after the US and Israel conducted a military strike on Iran.UK PM Starmer said British planes are ‘in the sky’ in a coordinated defence against Iran, and the UK Ministry of Defence said RAF jets took out an Iranian drone heading to Qatar. It was separately reported that PM Starmer said the UK will not take part in military strikes on Iran, but has granted the US request to use its military bases to strike Iran, while the UK was reportedly drawing up options for a mass evacuation of citizens from the Middle East.German Chancellor Merz voiced concern regarding the fallout from the US and Israeli strikes on Iran, ahead of a key trip to Washington this week. Merz also stated that he will discuss the Middle East with US President Trump on Tuesday in Washington and that the regime in Tehran has no legitimacy to stay in power.Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said regarding the US operation against Iran that China opposes the use of force in international relations, while he also stated it is unacceptable to openly kill the leader of a sovereign country and institute regime change.Russian Foreign Ministry said news regarding the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader is met with...
Transcribe →US Market Open: Crude extending ahead of OPEC+ and another round of nuclear talks next week; DXY steady going into US PPI
Feb 2700:02:34Tap to summarizePBoC announced it will cut the FX Risk Reserve Ratio for forward FX sales to 0% from 20%, effective March 2nd to promote FX market development and support corporate exchange rate risk management.European equities firmer, Telecoms lead following potential M&A; US equity futures lower in the continuation of Thursday's tech-led selloff.DXY is flat; G10s broadly firmer, ex-EUR and GBP. USTs mildly firmer, Bunds choppy after mixed regional inflation prints.Crude gains and awaits the next chapter of the US-Iran saga and the OPEC+ meeting; Metals shine ahead of US PPI.Looking ahead, highlights include German CPI (Feb), Canadian GDP (Jan), US PPI (Jan), Comments from BoE's Pill.EUROPEAN TRADEEQUITIESEuropean bourses (STOXX 600 +0.3%) are broadly firmer, with the SMI (+0.7%) the clear outperformer after Swiss Re (+3.6%) posted a 47% Y/Y rise in 2025 net profit while announcing a USD 500mln share buyback. Lagging behind its peers is the CAC 40 (-0.1%), with very company-specific news to drive the index.European sectors are mixed. Telecommunications (+1.3%) outperform after Spain's Cellnex (+0.6%) saw 2025 operating profit rise more than double annually and Telefonica (+3.7%) reportedly negotiating the purchase of 1&1 (+9.4%)in Germany in a EUR 5bln deal. On the flip side, Travel and Leisure (-1.8%) is underperforming despite positive IAG (-5.5%) earnings, in which the Co. beat FY profit expectations and announced a EUR 1.5bln share buyback.US equity futures (NQ -0.1%, ES -0.2%, RTY -0.7%) have held onto Thursday's losses, which were hit by losses in NVIDIA (closed -5.5%) and then Financials following the MFS exposure risk.BASF (BAS GY) Q4 2025 (EUR): Revenue 14.0bln (exp. 14.04bln), Net profit 560mln (exp. 285mln), EBITDA 1.03bln (prev. 1.43bln Y/Y), sees FY26 Adj. EBITDA between 6.2-7.0bln (exp. 7.22bln).Dell Technologies (DELL) - Q4 adj. EPS 3.89 (exp. 3.51), Q4 revenue USD 33.38bln (exp. 31.68bln). AI-optimised server orders USD 64bln, with a record AI backlog of USD 43bln. Increased dividend +20%, added USD 10bln to its share repurchase authorisation. Sees Q1 adj. EPS 2.90 (exp. 2.39), sees Q1 revenue between USD 34.7-35.7bln (exp. 29.07bln). For FY27, sees adj. EPS at 12.90 (exp. 9.95), sees FY27 revenue between USD 138.0-142.0bln (exp. 124.87bln), expecting AI revenue of USD 50bln and operating income growth of 18%. DELL shares +10.7% pre-marketNetflix (NFLX) declines to raise its offer for Warner Brothers (WBD) and said the deal is no longer financially attractive.Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflowClick for the additional newsFXDXY is choppy but ultimately slightly softer following subdued APAC trade amid mixed sentiment, whilst the tone in Europe is tentative. Modest downticks in the index were seen as the EUR strengthened following the hotter-than-expected French CPI data (more below). Aside from that, newsflow in the European morning has been on the quieter side as USD traders gear up for US PPI data later in the session. DXY resides in a current 97.611-97.824 range at the time of writing, within Thursday’s 97.489-97.984 parameter.EUR/USD eked mild gains after oscillating around the 1.1800 focal point overnight, with a more convincing move above the level seen after the hotter-than-expected French and Spanish Prelim CPI metrics. EUR/USD resides in a 1.1789-1.1822 range awaiting the German Prelim CPI later today. The single currency then slipped to the unchanged mark after German state CPI metrics, where the Y/Y metrics generally showed a bit more cooling than what is forecasted for the mainland.GBP/USD languished near the 1.3500 level following the prior day's underperformance owing to credit concerns, and with overnight price action contained after UK GfK consumer confidence fell to its lowest level that was last seen in November. Overnight, UK journalists focused on the Gorton and Denton by-elections in which the Green party won, with Reform second and Labour third. With Labour losing a seat they held for almost 100 years, UK PM Starmer's leadership could be at risk. Nonetheless, GBP/USD saw little reaction to the results announcement, and currently resides in a 1.3461-1.3507 range, after finding support at its 200 DMA (1.3442) yesterday. Ahead, BoE’s Chief Economist Pill is due to give some remarks.USD/JPY retreated amid the early subdued risk appetite and following a slew of data, including Tokyo CPI, which printed firmer-than-expected across the board, but slowed from the previous with Core inflation back beneath the BoJ's price goal. The pair pared back some losses as the DXY recouped some overnight losses. USD/JPY trades in a 155.54-156.12 range vs yesterday’s 155.70-156.43 parameter.Antipodeans rebounded from the prior day's trough and narrowly outperform in the European morning, but with further upside contained by the mixed risk appetite and amid a weaker CNH, which was pressured after the PBoC actions to slow currency appreciation, in which it cut the FX risk reserve ratio to 0% and set a weaker-than-expected CNY fix by maintaining it at the prior day's level.FIXED INCOMEUSTs are firmer by a handful of ticks this morning, and trades within a 113-16 to 113-19 range. Really not much driving things for the US paper this morning, and remains towards the prior day’s peaks. The upside in USTs on Thursday was facilitated by subdued risk appetite and a decent 7yr auction. Focus remains on the geopolitical situation, following US-Iran talks. Meetings have concluded, and whilst there have reportedly been some positive developments, uncertainty remains. Reports suggest that US President Trump is expected to convene senior advisers on Friday for detailed discussions on Iran and to decide on a course of action toward Tehran. Internal deliberations are said to be focused not on whether a strike would occur but on its scope and potential targets. Next up, US PPI.Bunds are incrementally firmer/flat, and currently reside within a 129.76 to 129.99 range. Initially held towards recent highs, but has since slipped towards the unchanged mark following the hotter-than-expected French/Spanish inflation metrics. Though the German State CPIs thereafter spurred some modest upticks in Bunds, given the Y/Y metrics generally showed a bit more cooling than what is forecasted for the mainland.Gilts are firmer by around 10 ticks, to currently trade near the upper end of a 93.00-93.30 range. Overnight, UK journalists focused on the Gorton and Denton by-elections in which the Green party won, with Reform second and Labour third. With Labour losing a seat they held for almost 100 years, UK PM Starmer's leadership could be at risk – which in theory would place pressure on UK-assets. This has not been reflected in price action this morning, though analysts at GS opined that the risk had already been priced in by markets.Japan sold JPY 2.15tln in 2-year JGBs; b/c 3.32x (prev. 3.88x); average yield 1.244% (prev. 1.253%).Australia sold AUD 800mln 2.75% November 2028 bonds, b/c 3.86, avg. yield 4.1849%.COMMODITIESWTI Apr’26 and Brent May’26 futures are firmer within USD 64.85-65.90/bbl and USD 70.42-71.49/bbl intraday ranges thus far, respectively. Gains follow yesterday’s US-Iran negotiations, which ultimately failed to reach an accord, but the sides agreed to continue technical talks. Mediators reported "unprecedented openness to new and creative ideas". Both sides reportedly moved closer on specific elements of an agreement related to nuclear limits and sanctions relief. That being said, major sticking points remain.Spot gold trades within a narrow range after only modestly gaining on yesterday’s US-Iran saga, which ended in no deal, but talks are poised to continue next week. Traders will be focused on any potential US military action this weekend in a bid to pressure Iran. Spot gold resides tight USD 5,167-5,200.64/oz range at the time of writing. Spot silver is firmer by some 1.5% intraday but contained to within Wednesday’s ranges.Base metals are firmer across the board despite the choppy risk tone in Asia, but prices are underpinned by the softer USD. Some desks attribute the rise to the stalled US-Iran talks and strengthening demand signals from China. The upside also comes ahead of next week’s China “Two Sessions”, where formal approval of the 15th Five-Year Plan and new stimulus measures for infrastructure and technology (AI, EVs, grid networks) are anticipated. 3M LME copper resides in a USD 13,243.73-13,508.13/t.London Metal Exchange announces the consultation for introducing regulatory position limits, exem...
Transcribe →EU Market Open: Crude steady as Geneva talks end with no deal; PBoC cuts FX Risk Reserve Ratio
Feb 2700:03:08Tap to summarizeAPAC stocks were ultimately higher heading into month-end but with price action choppy following the weak handover from the US, where sentiment was clouded by tech weakness, while participants also digested the recent US-Iran talks in Geneva - which ended in no deal.Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said they entered serious talks about sanctions relief and the nuclear issue, while he added it was one of the most serious talks they have had with the US, and technical talks will start in Vienna from Monday.Ukrainian President Zelensky said the next trilateral talks will likely occur in the UAE in early March.PBoC announced it will cut the FX Risk Reserve Ratio for forward FX sales to 0% from 20%, effective March 2nd to promote FX market development and support corporate exchange rate risk management.European equity futures indicate an uneventful cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures flat after the cash market closed with losses of 0.2% on Thursday.Looking ahead, highlights include German Import Prices (Jan), French/Spanish/German CPI (Feb), German Unemployment Rate (Feb), Canadian GDP (Jan), US PPI (Jan), Comments from BoE's Pill, Earnings from Holcim & BASF.SNAPSHOTClick for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.US TRADEEQUITIESUS stocks were mixed in what was a largely risk-off day as NVIDIA's (NVDA) post-earnings upside failed to hold and weighed on broader indices. As such, tech led the downside with weakness in hardware names, but software stocks caught a reprieve following a recent slew of strong earnings.Aside from NVIDIA (NVDA), risk sentiment was also soured by reports via SCMP that the Trump-Xi summit preparations were faltering, with analysts warning that China wants a "many months" process to prepare for such a summit, expressing frustration around how limited US diplomatic channels are. Around the same time, tensions were rising amid reports from the morning US/Iran talks, which started off poorly, hitting sentiment further, supporting havens and lifting crude. However, crude gave back the gains after the afternoon talks were completed, which were ultimately seen as more positive with progress being made, while technical talks are set to resume in Vienna next week, from Monday.SPX -0.54% at 6,909, NDX -1.16% at 25,034, DJI +0.03% at 49,499, RUT +0.52% at 2,677.Click here for a detailed summary.TARIFFS/TRADEUS ITC is undertaking a new fact-finding investigation to examine the impact of revoking permanent normal trade relations treatment for all products of China.Canadian Minister responsible for US Trade Le Blanc said private government-to-government conversations on USMCA are not discouraging and that there have always been bilateral arrangements between the US, Canada and Mexico, while he is not pessimistic about eventual bilateral sector arrangements with the US.NOTABLE HEADLINESFed's Goolsbee (2027 voter) said rates can come down, but does not want to front-load before inflation eases, while he commented they can overheat the economy, but added 'let’s not' and that he wants the Fed to be careful. Goolsbee said he is one of the more optimistic folks on the Fed about rate cuts this year and stated the economy has been solid and the job market is stable.Federal Reserve is mounting a behind-closed-doors legal challenge to subpoenas issued as part of US Attorney Jeanine Pirro’s criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell, according to people familiar with the matter cited by WSJ.APAC TRADEEQUITIESAPAC stocks were ultimately higher heading into month-end but with price action choppy following the weak handover from the US, where sentiment was clouded by tech weakness, while participants also digested the recent US-Iran talks in Geneva.ASX 200 mildly gained as strength in tech and telecoms atoned for the losses in financials and consumer stocks.Nikkei 225 traded indecisively amid a firmer currency and a slew of mixed data releases from Japan, in which Industrial Production disappointed, Retail Sales topped forecasts, and Tokyo CPI printed firmer-than-expected but slowed across the board with the Core reading falling beneath the central bank's 2% price target for the first time since October 2024.Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were varied with outperformance in Hong Kong as participants digested earnings releases from the likes of Baidu and Sun Hung Kai Properties, while the mainland initially lacked direction in the absence of fresh catalysts and ahead of next week's annual "two sessions", while Trump-Xi summit preparations were said to falter. However, late upside was seen after comments from China's Politburo meeting in which it stated that China's development process during the 14th Five-Year Plan is extraordinary and that it is necessary to continue to implement a more active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy.US equity futures remained subdued following the recent tech weakness and NVIDIA's failure to inspire despite its earnings beat, while geopolitical uncertainty continues, as although US-Iran talks in Geneva were said to be positive, the sides failed to reach an agreement, and the risk of a US strike on Iran remains.European equity futures indicate an uneventful cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures flat after the cash market closed with losses of 0.2% on Thursday.FXDXY was slightly softer in rangebound trade amid the mixed performances in its major Asian counterparts, with the yen firmer after Tokyo CPI data and with the yuan pressured after the PBoC lowered the FX risk reserve ratio to 0% from the 20% level, which had been in place since September 2022 and with the move seen as an effort to slow the currency's appreciation. Elsewhere, there was more Fed rhetoric, but it continued to have a muted impact on the FX space in which Fed's Goolsbee (2027 voter) stated that rates can come down, but added that he does not want to front-load before inflation eases and wants the Fed to be careful.EUR/USD eked mild gains after oscillating around the 1.1800 focal point, while participants now await CPI data from some of the bloc's key members.GBP/USD languished near the 1.3500 level following the prior day's underperformance owing to credit concerns, and with overnight price action contained after UK GfK consumer confidence fell to its lowest level that was last seen in November.USD/JPY retreated amid the early subdued risk appetite and following a slew of data, including Tokyo CPI, which printed firmer-than-expected across the board, but slowed from the previous with Core inflation back beneath the BoJ's price goal.Antipodeans rebounded from the prior day's trough but with further upside contained by the mixed risk appetite and amid a weaker CNH after the PBoC actions to slow currency appreciation, in which it cut the FX risk reserve ratio to 0% and set a weaker-than-expected CNY fix by maintaining it at the prior day's level.PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.9228 vs exp. 6.8428 (Prev. 6.9228).FIXED INCOME10yr UST futures extended recent gains after advancing amid the subdued risk appetite stateside and after a better-than-previous 7yr auction, while there is little scheduled today for the US aside from PPI and Chicago PMI data.Bund futures remained firmer and approached just shy of the 130.00 level, while the attention turns to several releases from Germany, including CPI, Import Prices and the Unemployment Rate.10yr JGB futures continued to rebound from this week's low as participants digested Tokyo CPI data, which printed firmer-than-expected, but slowed from the previous readings, with Core CPI in the capital region declining below the BoJ's 2% target for the first time since October 2024, while there was little reaction to the somewhat mixed results from the latest 2yr JGB auction.COMMODITIESCrude futures traded rangebound after whipsawing yesterday alongside US/Iran talks, which started poorly but were later said to be positive, although there is still uncertainty regarding Iran's stance on key issues, and technical discussions will begin on Monday.Spot gold traded sideways with upside capped amid an uneventful dollar and with resistance around USD 5,200/oz.Copper futures saw two-way price action in relatively contained parameters amid the choppy risk sentiment in Asia.CRYPTOBitcoin edged higher overnight and briefly returned to above the USD 68,000 level.NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINESChina's Politburo held a mee...
Transcribe →US Market Open: NVIDIA +0.9% pre-market; Positive rhetoric from third round of talks in Geneva between US and Iran pressures crude benchmarks
Feb 2600:02:32Tap to summarizeAt the third round of nuclear talks in Geneva, Omani Foreign Minister says Iran and the US have welcomed proposals and talks are still currently ongoing. Further, "Iranian negotiating delegation meets IAEA director at the headquarters of the negotiations in Geneva", via Al Jazeera.European equities mixed; US equity futures unable to gain following NVIDIA earnings (+0.8% pre-market.)DXY posting modest gains, JPY outperforms on hawkish rhetoric, Cable softer ahead of Gorton and Denton by-election.Global fixed benchmarks are flat awaiting data, supply and Fed speak.Crude benchmarks fall following positive rhetoric from Omani FM, potentially easing tensions.Looking ahead, highlights include US Jobless Claims, Japanese Tokyo CPI (Feb), Retail Sales (Jan). Speakers include Fed's Bowman, Miran & Goolsbee. Supply from the US. Earnings from CoreWeave, Intuit, Vistra Energy, Autodesk, Dell & Warner Bros Discovery.EUROPEAN TRADEEQUITIESEuropean bourses (STOXX 600 +0.1%) are mixed, with France's CAC 40 (+0.4%) leading its peers while the IBEX 35 (-0.3%) lags.European sectors do not offer any additional bias. Financial Services (+1.3%) and Retail (+1.0%) top the sector list, while Basic Resources (-2.0%) suffer as silver prices fall. LSEG (+6.7%) supports the Financial sector, as the Co. unveiled a new GBP 3bln share buyback programme. For Retailing, Howden Joinery (+7.5%) released a positive FY report, with pretax profit rising annually. However, the boost in the Co.'s shares comes from the announcement of a GBP 100mln share buyback.US equity futures (NQ -0.1%, ES/RTY U/C) are flat/incrementally weaker, despite a positive Q4 earnings report by tech behemoth Nvidia. Following the earnings, Goldman Sachs analysts released a note, stating that they see a clearer path to stock outperformance and reiterated its Buy rating on the stock. However, HSBC did cut its price target to USD 295/shr from USD 310.Rolls Royce (RR/ LN) FY 2025 (GBP): Revenue 20.05bln (prev. 17.84bln Y/Y), Op. Profit 3.46bln (prev. 2.46bln Y/Y), Basic EPS 29.55 (prev. 20.29 Y/Y). Announced GBP 7bln - 9bln multi-year share buyback.NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) Q4 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.62 (exp. 1.54), Revenue 68.1bln (exp. 66.12bln). Sees Q1 revenue between USD 76.44-79.56bln (exp. 72.6bln), excluding any data centre revenue from China, though it has received licences to ship small volumes of H200 chips to Chinese customers. reports cited traders being underwhelmed by a routine beat, as well as concerns over customer concentration and competition, while its outlook excluded China data centre revenue. NVIDIA shares +0.8% pre-market.NVIDIA (NVDA) confirms it was granted a US licence in February to ship a small amount of H200 chips to China-based customers and H200 chips face 25% tariffs. Still negotiating OpenAI investment, deal not finalised.Baidu (BIDU / 9888 HK) Q4 2025 (USD): Revenue 4.68bln (exp. 4.68bln), Adj. EPS 1.52 (exp. 1.47).Sony (6758 JT) expands its share buyback by JPY 100bln to up to JPY 250bln.Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflowClick for the additional newsFXDXY is modestly firmer after finding support around the 97.50 mark overnight before attempting to recoup some of yesterday's losses, with macro newsflow on the lighter side as US-Iran nuclear talks get underway. So far, Omani Foreign Minister said Iran and the US have welcomed proposals in the Geneva talks. On the data front, the Chicago Fed will release its labour market indicators; weekly jobless claims are seen at 215k from 206k; continuing claims (which coincide with the traditional BLS survey window for the February jobs report) are seen at 1.86mln from 1.869mln. DXY currently trades within a 97.49-97.72 range, vs Wednesday's 97.62-98.00 parameter.JPY is the current outperformer as USD/JPY continued to pull back overnight after climbing to its best levels in over two weeks, on Wednesday, following the Takaichi government's reflationist picks for the BoJ board. The pair was not helped by the lack of fresh drivers and the absence of tier-1 data from Japan, while there were comments from BoJ Governor Ueda, who reiterated the hiking bias, and hawkish dissenter Takata also stated that they must conduct further rate hikes in a gradual manner.GBP takes a breather after advancing in tandem with high-beta FX. Newsflow for the UK has been on the lighter side, with price action fitting with the subdued/cautious tone. UK focus will likely be on the Gorton and Denton by-election: analysts suggest that a heavy defeat for the ruling Labour Party could trigger volatility in Sterling. Some suggest a loss in what has been a safe Labour seat for nearly 100 years could re-ignite speculation regarding UK PM Starmer's leadership.Antipodeans are subdued following the recent outperformance that was facilitated by their high-beta statuses. Overnight, quarterly capex data from Australia topped forecasts, which feeds into next week's GDP release.FIXED INCOMEUSTs are flat and currently holding within a 113-04+ to 113-09 range. Really not much driving things for US paper this morning, and this has been reflected by the lacklustre price action. After-market on Wednesday, saw the release of stronger-than-expected NVIDIA earnings, with the name a touch firmer pre-market – but had little follow through from a sentiment perspective. On the data front, the Chicago Fed will release its labour market indicators; weekly jobless claims are seen at 215k from 206k; continuing claims (which coincide with the traditional BLS survey window for the Feb jobs report) are seen at 1.86mln from 1.869mln. From a geopolitical perspective, US-Iran talks have reportedly begun in Geneva. A breakdown in talks could spur some haven inflows in USTs, given the increased likelihood of a US strike on Iran.Bunds follow the sideways action across global peers, and hold within a 129.57 to 129.69 range. Lack of catalysts for German paper this morning, with commentary from ECB President Lagarde also failing to spur action. She reiterated the usual data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach.Gilts ditto peers. Currently flat and within a narrow 92.82-92.90 range. Markets were expecting some remarks via BoE’s Lombardelli, though nothing thus far. UK focus will likely be on the Gorton and Denton by-election, with some analysts suggesting that a Labour loss, in what has been a safe seat for nearly 100 years, could re-ignite speculation regarding UK PM Starmer's leadership. Hence, this could weigh on Gilts in the short-term.Italy sells EUR 6.5bln vs exp. EUR 5.5-6.5bln 2.85% 2031 and 3.45% 2036 BTP & EUR 2.5bln vs exp. EUR 2.0-2.5bln 1.468% 2035 CCTeu.Abu Dhabi is set to issue two benchmark USD bonds, Bloomberg reported. 5-year note offered at a spread +50bps over USTs. 10-year note offered at a spread +55bps over USTs.UK government debt sales are anticipated to decline for the first time in four years as large banks forecast GBP 247bln of gilt issuances in the approaching fiscal year amid Chancellor Reeves seeks to rein in borrowing, according to FT.Australia sold AUD 150mln in 2030 indexed bonds, b/c 4.21, avg. yield 1.8002%.COMMODITIESCrude benchmarks traded lower on the commencement of the US-Iran talks in Geneva. As updates from that meeting got announce, WTI and Brent dipped to fresh session lows and now trade off by around 1.5% and 1.3% respectively. Two main takeaways from the meeting, including the Omani Foreign Minister suggesting that Iran and the US have welcomed proposals in the Geneva talks. Elsewhere, Al Jazeera reported that the “Iranian negotiating delegation meets IAEA director” – this would be necessary for a market-friendly sustainable deal. Brent May’26 is now shy of USD 70.00/bbl, with the low currently a moving a target at the time of writing.Precious metals are trading mixed this morning, with spot gold trading firmer and silver lower. XAU and XAG trades within a narrow range of USD 5155.59-5205.58/oz and USD 86.33-90.34/oz, respectively.Base metals are lower this morning, tracking headwind from its largest buyer, China, which saw mixed to weak sentiment, pinning down price action for base metals. Sentiment in Europe has done little to shake off sentiment in the base metal complex, with European equities trading mixed this morning. 3M LME copper trades within the lower range of USD 13.23-13.35k/t.Nordic countries investigate a threat to the region's energy infrastructure, according to TV4 citing sources. “According to the threat, the ...
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