Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister says Iran has not sent any messages to the US to end the conflict, but are instead focused on self defence efforts, according to Sky News Arabia.
Deputy Commander of the Iranian Army Central Command said Iran has not closed the Strait of Hormuz; IRGC struck a US oil tanker while announcing US, Israeli and European vessels are not allowed through the strait.
European bourses trade mixed, STMicroelectronics surges on new chip; US equity futures softer despite positive AVGO earnings.
DXY back on a firmer footing, antipodeans lag on China's new growth target and metals prices.
Fixed benchmarks lower as energy prices continue to drive price action.
Crude benchmarks remain firmer; Spot gold trades slightly firmer, whilst base metals are lower after China forecasts lowest GDP figure since 1991.
Looking ahead, highlights include US Challenger Job Cuts (Feb), US Export/Import Prices (Jan), Jobless Claims, South Korean CPI (Feb), ECB Minutes (Feb), Speakers including ECB President Lagarde & Fed's Bowman, Earnings from Marvell, Costco, Kroger & Victoria's Secret.

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.4%) are mixed, with the IBEX 35 (+1.0%) leading while the SMI (-0.2%) lags slightly as distributor Kuehne+Nagel (-1.9%) weighs on the index.
European sectors are tilted positively, with Utilities (+1.1%) outperforming while Basic Resources (-0.6%) sit at the bottom of the pile despite gains in metal prices. Technology (+0.8%) has been benefiting today after STMicroelectronics (+5.6%) announced a new generation of MCUs to boost performance of tiny smart devices while meeting extreme cost, size and power limitations.
US equity futures (NQ/ES -0.1%, RTY -0.4%) are slightly lower. Broadcom (+7.0% pre-market) reported quarterly earnings and revenue above expectations, and issued stronger-than-expected revenue guidance, driven by robust demand for AI chips.
Foxconn (2317 TT) February (TWD) Revenue 596.8bln, +8.1% Y/Y; (prev. 730bln in January, +36% Y/Y); noted visibility into Q1 aligns with market expectations.
JD.Com (JD) Q4 2025 (USD): EPS 0.08 (exp. 0.07), Revenue 50.4bln (exp. 50.7bln); announces annual dividend of USD 0.50/ordinary share or USD 1/ADS.
Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) Q1 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 2.05 (exp. 2.02), Revenue 19.3bln (exp. 19.22bln). To buy back shares for USD 10bln.
NVIDIA (NVDA) reportedly refocuses TSMC (2330 TT) capacity as export controls stall China sales in which it is shifting output away from H200s intended for the Chinese market to Vera Rubin products, according to FT.
Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
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FX

DXY is mildly firmer this morning and currently trades within a 98.66 to 99.20 range; upside which follows on from some mild pressure in the prior session, as investors favoured risk assets. Haven inflow have resumed given the overall environment has not changed – the Gulf remains at war, and the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut, and there are currently little signs of easing. It is worth highlighting that Sky News Arabia reported commentary via the Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister who suggested that Iran “is prepared to abandon its nuclear program” on the condition that the US presents a rewarding alternative offer. This spurred risk-on trade, with the index falling from 99.08 to 98.75 over the course of around 15 minutes. Later Iranian press reported that Iran was prepared to get rid of its uranium stockpiles, in exchange for “something good” – though this proposal was made pre-war.
EUR and GBP are once again pressured, as focus remains firmly on geopolitics and the inflationary/growth impacts of the net-importers. The pairs are off worst levels, following the aforementioned commentary via the Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister. There have been a few ECB speakers today, notably de Guindos suggesting that the ECB could change policy stance if inflation expectations change as a result of the war. For the GBP, ING points out the outperformance in the GBP against the EUR – the bank suggests that asset managers are unwinding previously held long EUR trades; moreover, markets have been pushing back calls for near-term cuts.
JPY is mildly lower, with USD/JPY currently trading within a 156.44 to 157.35 range. Some modest strength in the JPY was seen on Bloomberg reports that officials see little chance of a rate hike in March, but will not rule one out in April.
Antipodeans underperform this morning, pressured by the downside across the metals complex and in the aftermath of mixed Australian trade data – a factor which has resulted in the Aussie lagging. Moreover, China set its 2026 GDP growth target at between 4.5-5% (as expected), nonetheless, the lowest since 1991, as Beijing seeks flexibility to manage economic challenges including weak consumption, a property-sector crisis, slowing population growth and global trade tensions.

FIXED INCOME

-- A bearish start for fixed with energy dynamics once again dictating price action. USTs and Bunds lower by 11 and over 50 ticks, respectively. In brief, the ongoing Middle East conflict is bolstering yields and, in turn, weighing on benchmarks themselves. USTs down to a 112-15+ low, notching an incremental new WTD base. If the move continues, we look to recent support at 112-06, 112-04, 111-31, 111-26, 111-13+.

For the US, and generally, today's focus is firmly on any geopolitical updates, particularly around Iran's uranium stockpiles in light of recent reporting. That aside, the day features weekly claims (does not coincide with the BLS window), Challenger jobs in addition to the Revelio and Chicago Fed statistics. Of note for PCE, the latest export/import prices will hit. The speaker docket has Fed's Bowman (voter), and while we are not guided to a text, there will be a Q&A.
Within Europe, the story is much the same. The docket ahead is headlined by the ECB Minutes, though given recent developments, they are likely even more stale than typical. No real reaction to supply from France or Spain. As it stands, Bunds are at a 127.67 trough, approaching the WTD 127.50 base.
Gilts experienced another morning of catch-up trade, but this time with a bearish bias given the lead from peers and movements in energy prices. No reaction to the latest DMP, the views of which are now somewhat stale. Currently holding around 20 ticks off a 91.46 low, but still lower by over 40 ticks on the day.
EU is said to considers joint defence bonds amid concerns around the Iran war, Welt reported; a proposal is to be presented; defence bonds could be backed by member states.
UK sells GBP 3.5bln 4.00% 2029 Gilt: b/c 3.49x (prev. 3.66x), avg. yield 3.810% (prev. 3.821%), tail 0.4bps (prev. 0.3bps).
France sells EUR 13.449 vs exp. EUR 11.5-13.5bln 3.50% 2035, 1.25% 2036, 2.50% 2043 and 4.10% 2046 OAT.
Spain sold EUR 5.34bln vs exp. EUR 4.5-5.5bln 2.35% 2029, 3.00% 2033 and 3.50% 2041 Bono and EUR 0.592bln vs exp. EUR 0.25-0.75bln 1.15% 2036 IL.
Japan sold JPY 530bln 30-yr JGBs; b/c 3.66x (prev. 3.64x), and average yield 3.398% (prev. 3.615%).

COMMODITIES

Crude benchmarks remain underpinned by the ongoing geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, despite facing mild pressure during the early European session. WTI and Brent are trading at the upper ranges of USD 74.97-78.09 and USD 81.50-84.74/bbl, respectively. The crude complex faced some pressure during the early European session. Brent saw some pressure following news that the Deputy Commander of the Iranian Army Central Command said Iran has not closed the Strait of Hormuz and is currently handling ships passing through the Strait in accordance with relevant international rules and existing agreements, CCTV reported. Further pressure was seen, following comments from the Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister that Iran is ready to abandon its nuclear program on the condition that the US presents a rewarding alternative offer, Sky News Arabia reports; adds no message was sent to the US to end the conflict.
Spot gold initially edged higher but then stalled near the vicinity of USD 5,200/oz. Price action was relatively tame compared to recent moves, and there was little reaction to news that Venezuela's Minerven inked a multimillion-dollar deal with Trafigura to sell up to 1,000 kilos of gold destined for US markets. XAU and XAG are trading in the upper end of USD 5120.82-5158.77/oz and USD 80.523-85.545/oz, ranges respecti...