Newt’s World – Episode 815: Robert Kaplan on “Waste Land”

Date: February 23, 2025
Host: Newt Gingrich
Guest: Robert D. Kaplan, author of “Wasteland: A World in Permanent Crisis”

Episode Overview

In this episode, Newt Gingrich engages with renowned geopolitical analyst and author Robert D. Kaplan about his latest book, “Wasteland: A World in Permanent Crisis.” The discussion centers on the unprecedented combination of global challenges – from war and climate change to technology, mass migration, and weakened international order. Kaplan draws parallels between the anxiety and turbulence of today’s world and the Weimar Republic, warning of the dangers posed by declining great powers, fragile institutions, and the illusions of interconnectedness. The conversation weaves history and contemporary events, offering deep insights for future leaders.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Weimar Republic as a Modern Analogy

Timestamp: 03:35 – 06:36

• Kaplan’s Opening Rationale: He begins his book with the Weimar Republic to illustrate striking similarities to the current global atmosphere: interconnectivity, constant crisis, absence of relaxation, and persistent instability.

  • Quote:

    “The Weimar Republic was incredibly eerily similar to our world today... our world is one big Weimar now. We don't have world government, there is very little world governance. But there is an emerging global system... every place can interact with every other place like never before.”
    — Robert D. Kaplan (04:05)

• Lessons from Weimar:

  • Weimar’s attempt to avoid past mistakes created unmanageable instability, which resulted in a dangerous lack of order – a cautionary parallel for today.

  • Overlearning lessons from history can lead to unintended chaos.

    • Quote:

      “That's when we make mistakes, when we overlearn a lesson... They created a system so unmanageable that nobody was ever really in control. And that lack of order... led to Hitler.”
      — Robert D. Kaplan (05:31)

2. The Impact of US Withdrawal from Afghanistan

Timestamp: 07:43 – 09:10

• Symbolism of Weakness: Kaplan contends that the chaotic US withdrawal from Afghanistan projected American ineffectiveness and emboldened Vladimir Putin to invade Ukraine.

  • Quote:

    “They withdrew in a way that led to a catastrophe... it gave Putin the idea that the West was finished, essentially, that the West was not going to challenge him. That led him into what I still consider to be a disastrous war...”
    — Robert D. Kaplan (08:15)

• Ironies of Withdrawal:

  • Despite negative optics, it temporarily improved internal US government cohesion on foreign policy.

3. Military Culture and Russia’s Failures in Ukraine

Timestamp: 09:29 – 11:04

• Importance of NCOs (Non-Commissioned Officers):

  • Kaplan discusses the value of the US military’s NCO corps and Russia’s lack thereof, emphasizing this as a core reason for Russia’s struggle in Ukraine.

    • Quote:

      “The real jewel in the crown of the American military are the non commissioned officers... Russia did not have, in reality an NCO corps. That did not matter in Russia's small wars... but he [Putin] attempted a major land war... and he did not have it.”
      — Robert D. Kaplan (09:29)

• Russia’s Phase of Decline:

  • Russia’s extended war in Ukraine exposes and accelerates its long-term decline as a power.

    • Quote:

      “I believe, as every month that the Ukraine war has gone on has weakened Russia's ability to determine outcomes... So I think this war is really a sign of Russian decline.”
      — Robert D. Kaplan (12:18)

4. Nuclear Dangers & Evolving Warfare

Timestamp: 14:17 – 16:19

• Modern Nuclear Risks:

  • Kaplan revisits Kissinger’s “Nuclear Weapons and Foreign Policy” to warn that tactical, “low-yield” nuclear weapons increase the risk of a limited nuclear strike in a conventional conflict.

    • Quote:

      “Don't just think of nuclear war as nuclear holocaust, think about it in terms of conventional war with nuclear aspects to it... the trend has been to develop low yield, high tech tactical nuclear weapons that are actually designed to be used. And that really raises the danger.”
      — Robert D. Kaplan (15:06)

• Violence in Europe’s Periphery:

  • Gingrich highlights that violence continued in the Balkans after the Cold War, implying that stability is always tenuous and intervention complex.

5. The Balkans, Somalia & “Small Wars”

Timestamp: 17:15 – 18:29

• US & UN Reluctance:
  • US intervention in the Balkans was influenced by the trauma of “Black Hawk Down” in Somalia and risk aversion in the Clinton administration.
  • These conflicts, while brutal, never escalated to the scale of Iraq or Vietnam for the US.

6. Crimea, Ukraine, and the Limits of Deterrence

Timestamp: 18:29 – 20:08

• Crimea’s Russian Identity:
  • Kaplan asserts that Crimea held unique cultural and sentimental value for Russia, narrowing Western response options.
• Limited Deterrence:
  • While Crimea was easily absorbed, the West failed to deter broader conflict.

7. End of the Cold War: Gorbachev over Reagan

Timestamp: 20:08 – 22:28

• Gorbachev’s Decisive Role:

  • Kaplan credits Gorbachev’s reforms and willingness to abandon force in the Warsaw Pact as pivotal in ending the Cold War.

    • Quote:

      “It was Gorbachev, really, who ended the Cold War by trying to reform the Soviet Union. And it collapsed all around him, essentially. And he made the decision that he would not militarily support the Communist parties in the Warsaw Pact if they ran into trouble...”
      — Robert D. Kaplan (21:50)

8. Shrinking World, Rising Anxiety

Timestamp: 24:26 – 26:17

• Technology and Claustrophobia:

  • Kaplan contends that technology has shrunken geography, making the world more anxious and unstable.

    • Quote:

      “The world is more claustrophobic and anxious than ever before because of technology... The world is smaller, it's tighter, it's more connected, but because we still have our grave differences, that only makes the world more unstable because your enemy or your rival is closer.”
      — Robert D. Kaplan (24:55)

• Illusion of Harmony among Elites:

  • Gingrich and Kaplan agree that global elites may share commonalities, but deep cultural and historical divides remain at the broader societal level, driving conflicts.

    • Quote:

      "Elites love what they can quantify... But... culture... drives history."
      — Robert D. Kaplan (27:08)

9. The United Nations’ Waning Power

Timestamp: 28:05 – 29:33

• From Center Stage to the Periphery:

  • The UN was once a powerful symbol of global order; recurring major wars among Security Council members and proliferation of other global bodies have diluted its authority.

    • Quote:

      “The UN was ultimately an elite project about soft power. Therefore, it worked well when there were no major wars going on... But now... the United Nations [is] diminished.”
      — Robert D. Kaplan (28:50)

10. Advice for Future Leaders: Constructive Pessimism

Timestamp: 29:33 – 31:54

• “Constructive Pessimism” as Discipline:

  • Kaplan advocates always thinking several steps ahead – worrying about what could go wrong, to reduce the likelihood of disasters.

    • Quote:

      “It's a good practice to employ constructive pessimism... always think pessimistically, but in a constructive way. Because... if you think about what can go wrong, if you think four or five steps ahead, the chances are you will diminish the percentages that things actually will go wrong.”
      — Robert D. Kaplan (29:51)

• Example: Israel:

  • Kaplan notes that Israel embodies this mindset daily, for example in calculations over actions in Gaza and Iran.

    • Quote:

      “Israel... always thinking ahead of the curve. If we do this, what can they do? If we attack Gaza full out, even now, what will happen to the rest of the hostages? I think the Israelis live with constructive pessimism every day of their lives.”
      — Robert D. Kaplan (30:53)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Candy-Coated Horror Tale:

  • “Weimar is a candy coated horror tale.”
    — Robert D. Kaplan (05:22)

• On Decline:

  • “All three great powers, the US, China and Russia, are all in both different ways and at different paces in periods of decline.”
    — Robert D. Kaplan (11:27)

• On Globalization Illusions:

  • “Elites are alike. At the very, very top level, there is a kind of a unity, but that's a thin top level... when you go down, there are real cultural and historical differences. And these are hard to talk about because they cannot be quantified. Yet this is what drives history.”
    — Robert D. Kaplan (26:52)

• Advice for Young Leaders:

  • “Employ anxious foresight, constructive pessimism. This is not new. Machiavelli wrote about it.”
    — Robert D. Kaplan (30:19)

• On Netanyahu:

  • “Whatever you think of Netanyahu, he deals with levels of stress and anxiety that would immobilize the average American politician.”
    — Robert D. Kaplan (31:36)

Timestamps of Key Segments

• Weimar Republic Analogy – 03:35
• US Afghanistan Withdrawal & Ukraine Invasion – 07:43
• Russia’s Military Weaknesses – 09:29
• Nuclear Risks – 14:17
• Balkans & US Interventions – 16:19
• Crimea’s Significance – 18:39
• End of the Cold War Analysis – 20:08
• Technology Shrinking the World – 24:26
• UN Diminished Relevance – 28:05
• Advice for the Next Generation of Leaders – 29:33
• Discussion of Israel & Constructive Pessimism – 30:53

Conclusion

Kaplan’s conversation with Gingrich takes a sweeping look at the world’s growing instability, drawing warnings from history, particularly the Weimar Republic. He offers a sobering analysis of the limitations of modern institutions and technology as guarantees of peace, and argues that clear-eyed, “constructive pessimism” is necessary for future leaders navigating such a world.

Recommended Action:
Read Robert D. Kaplan’s “Wasteland: A World in Permanent Crisis” for an in-depth exploration of these themes.

End of summary