Newt’s World – Episode 916: Social Security Insecurity in 2032

Host: Newt Gingrich
Guest: Andrew Biggs, Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute
Date: November 30, 2025

Episode Overview

In this episode, Newt Gingrich discusses the looming Social Security crisis with Andrew Biggs, a leading expert on Social Security reform. The conversation covers misconceptions around a “retirement crisis,” why the system’s true issues are often misrepresented, international comparisons, and the tough political realities of reforming Social Security before projected insolvency in 2032.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Why Social Security Matters & Andrew Biggs’ Background

• Biggs describes Social Security as a uniquely fascinating policy area that touches almost every aspect of citizens' lives and government function.

  “Social Security is so large, it covers every area of government, every part of people's lives. ... It's just been a fascinating issue to work on throughout my career.” – Andrew Biggs (04:54)

2. How Perceptions About Retirement Have Changed

• Early in his career, Biggs believed the U.S. had a retirement savings crisis, a view he’s since nuanced due to deeper research.
• Americans are actually saving at record levels, and senior poverty is at historic lows.

  “Later on…you discover Americans and the US Retirement system are really doing very well. That plays into how you think about Social Security reform. If Americans weren't saving for retirement on their own, then any cuts to Social Security I think would be hard to justify. But when Americans retirement savings are at record levels and poverty and old age is at record lows, you could start thinking about things a little bit differently.” – Andrew Biggs (06:24)

3. The Myth of a “Retirement Crisis”

• Surveys show most Americans believe there’s a retirement crisis, but only about 4% of retirees themselves feel in crisis.

  “It's a retirement crisis for thee, but not for me. There's a huge split in how Americans view the whole retirement system versus how they view their own retirement savings.” – Andrew Biggs (07:24)

• Biggs points out that public anxiety is driven by financial industry messaging, media incentives, and political philosophies—often at odds with actual data.

  “Nobody has the incentive to tell Americans the truth, which is that our retirement system is working pretty well...it really is surprising that people who know better will still use the scare language to try to motivate people.” – Andrew Biggs (09:15)

4. How We Talk About Social Security Reform

• Biggs criticizes the focus on “solvency” at the expense of structural modernization:

  “What are the chances that a program that was devised in 1935 ... is the right structure for a program for 2035 and beyond?” – Andrew Biggs (11:50)

• He argues for a “blank slate” approach, reimagining the system for today's realities where elderly poverty is rare and personal savings are robust.

5. The Challenge of Political Reform

• Any meaningful reform faces powerful lobbying from groups like AARP.

  “In literally anything you do on this, you are going to be open to attack. You know, even if you cut benefits by a penny for the highest income retiree, AARP is going to say something. ...they are the union for old people.” – Andrew Biggs (13:52)

• Biggs stresses the importance of communicating reforms “in English,” not actuarial jargon, to build public understanding and support.

  “Often discussions about Social Security are just in this actuarial mumbo jumbo… It doesn't mean we lie to people, it means you convert it to English to terms they can understand.” (15:26)

6. Impending Crisis: What Happens If We Do Nothing?

• The Social Security trust fund is currently projected to run out in 2032. At that point, benefits would drop by roughly 24% unless new funding is provided.

  “The default position in when the trust fund runs out is you cut benefits. Now, I don't think that's going to happen. But...that would be the largest peacetime tax increase in US history, about 1 1/2% of GDP.” – Andrew Biggs (19:29)

• Political incentive remains to kick the can, but by 2032 the issue will be unavoidable in presidential politics.

  “...the pattern for most of the past 40 years has been simply to cover our ears, cover our eyes, and kick the can down for the next Congress. But we're running out of time to do that.” – Andrew Biggs (20:54)

7. Learning from Other Countries

• The U.S. is unusual in providing very high Social Security benefits to upper-middle and high-income retirees. Other similar countries focus Social Security-type programs on poverty prevention, expecting the better-off to use private savings.

  “A high income couple retiring today can receive almost $100,000 in Social Security benefits. That's two to three times higher than what they would receive in Canada or the UK or Australia or New Zealand.” – Andrew Biggs (12:52)

• Biggs recommends a shift toward focused benefits:

  “Government is good at running welfare programs. Government is terrible at running pension systems... So government is good at running safety nets. ...It's terrible at saving for the future. So what we should do is simply expand 401ks and other retirement savings program ...while refocusing Social Security more on its role as a safety net program and less as an upper middle class entitlement.” – Andrew Biggs (24:12)

8. The Problem of Middle-Class Subsidies

• U.S. policy has become reliant on subsidies for the upper middle class, both in Social Security and health policy.

  “All the language, the discussion is about the safety net, all the money is actually for middle class, upper middle class people. ...the rhetoric just doesn't match the reality of where the money is going.” – Andrew Biggs (26:55)

9. Political Obstacles to Reform

• Raising the cap on Social Security taxes is often proposed by progressives, but the revenue is claimed by many future policy priorities (“opportunity cost”).

  “Anything on this would be very, very hard politically. ...I honestly don't think what you'd call the regular order can handle this. I think you need some sort of commission or, you know, extrajudicial process. Our political process just can't do this.” – Andrew Biggs (28:23)

10. If We Could Design Social Security from Scratch

• For new entrants to the workforce, Biggs envisions:

  • A strong minimum (anti-poverty) Social Security benefit.
  • Universal workplace retirement plan access and automatic or mandatory enrollment in savings plans.

  “You would want to have a strong minimum benefit so that people are not going to retire into poverty. ...That's something government is good at. ...On top of that ...that's where personal savings come in. ...Everybody should be offered a retirement plan at work...and enrolled in that plan.” – Andrew Biggs (33:24)

• Discusses the idea of “baby bonds” or accounts at birth, but concludes:

  “Conceptually I'm not against the idea, but the challenge is just members of Congress neither want to raise taxes nor cut benefits, but come 2032, they must raise taxes or cut benefits. So it's precisely the thing they want to do the least.” – Andrew Biggs (35:54)

11. Could a Blue Ribbon Commission Break the Deadlock?

• Biggs suggests a presidential commission could create political cover for both parties.

  “Some sort of commission ... it's doing this stuff in the regular order is just too difficult. ...the president has an opportunity there which really secretly both sides will be grateful for.” – Andrew Biggs (38:07)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “It's a retirement crisis for thee, but not for me.”
  — Andrew Biggs (07:24)

• “Nobody would invent a program today that pays $100,000 a year to high income retirees. ... But by the creep of the program where it's on autopilot, we're not thinking about it. That's where we got.”
  — Andrew Biggs (12:53)

• “In literally anything you do on this, you are going to be open to attack...they are the union for old people.”
  — Andrew Biggs (13:52)

• “You can borrow until you can't borrow. And when the markets lose faith, then interest rates skyrocket. ...Going through a bankruptcy ... is incredibly difficult.... Having something like that at the federal level ... will destabilize the world economy.”
  — Andrew Biggs (37:01)

• “There are moments in time when you actually have to have people who know something as opposed to know someone.”
  — Newt Gingrich (39:36)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Biggs’ Background & Career: 04:46–05:38
• Views on Retirement Crisis Perceptions: 06:24–08:21
• Why Americans Are Worried Despite Good Data: 08:38–10:26
• Problems with Policy Language & Reforms: 10:44–13:45
• AARP and Political Obstacles: 13:45–16:16
• What Happens If No Reform by 2032: 19:25–21:53
• International Comparisons: 23:08–24:57
• Shift Toward Targeted Social Security: 26:23–27:36
• Political Roadblocks & Progressive Proposals: 27:36–29:53
• Blank Slate Social Security Design: 33:03–35:09
• Possibility of a Blue Ribbon Commission: 37:55–39:25

Conclusion

This episode provides a deep, evidence-based look at Social Security’s future, with Andrew Biggs challenging many popular perceptions about retirement security in America. Biggs advocates for honest public discussion, policy modernization focused on true anti-poverty missions, and creating political mechanisms (e.g., a bipartisan commission) that could enable real reform before an avoidable crisis arrives in 2032.