Podcast Summary: Newt's World – Episode 938: Venezuela’s Future

Host: Newt Gingrich
Guest: Tracy Shuchart (Senior Economist, NinjaTrader)
Date: January 24, 2026

Overview

This episode centers on the geopolitical, economic, and security complexities surrounding Venezuela, moving beyond the popular "oil narrative" to illuminate the country's critical minerals, foreign influence (particularly from China, Iran, and Russia), and U.S. national security concerns. Expert guest Tracy Shuchart brings a commodities and macroeconomic lens, challenging simplistic explanations and revealing under-discussed issues with powerful implications for the Americas and the world.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

Tracy Shuchart’s Background & Perspective

• Commodities Expertise: Shuchart began her career at the Chicago Board of Trade, specializing in commodities.
• Role at NinjaTrader: She provides macroeconomic insights and hosts a livestream focused on futures and commodity markets.
  • [02:23] “You can go to the YouTube channel and just hit subscribe and notifications…” – Tracy

The Flawed "Oil Narrative"

• Misplaced Focus: Public discourse often reduces Venezuela to its oil output, ignoring broader realities.
  • [02:52] “The current narrative is wrong...what people really need to be focusing on is…critical minerals as well as the influence of China, Iran, and Russia…” – Tracy
• Why Oil Isn't Key Anymore:
  • Venezuela’s oil infrastructure has “been in decades of decline.”
  • Production dropped from 3.5 million barrels/day to under 900,000.
  • Restoring capacity would require $100–$200 billion (likely underestimated).
  • Oil majors (ExxonMobil, Chevron, Halliburton) have been burned by nationalization, expropriation, and unpaid debts—so are not eager to return.
  • Guyana has become a preferable, more stable investment spot.
  • [06:35] “...it's going to cost $100 to $200 billion to go into Venezuela...ExxonMobil...saying Venezuela is uninvestable right now.” – Tracy

The Real Story: Critical Minerals & National Security

• Venezuela’s Unique Value:
  • Home to the largest known deposits of coltan and other rare earth minerals in the hemisphere.
  • These minerals are essential for U.S. defense (missiles, fighter jets, radar, etc.).
• Strategic Vulnerability:
  • China processes 60–95% of the world’s critical minerals; the U.S. relies 50–100% on imports for key materials.
  • The U.S. is trying to stockpile and secure supply chains for these minerals to avoid Chinese dependency.
  • China covertly buys minerals from Venezuela, smuggles them to Colombia, changes their origin, and processes them in China—risking compliance exposures for U.S. defense contractors.
  • [03:29] “If we're just looking at this through like the crude Lens, this is incorrect...the Oronico mining arc contains exactly the kind of materials the Pentagon needs to break dependency on China…” – Tracy
  • [04:32] “China has been operating buyers directly at Venezuelan mines and moving these minerals through the Amazon...” – Tracy

Chinese, Russian, and Iranian Influence in Venezuela

• China:
  • Loans money to Venezuela, repaid in oil.
  • Direct involvement in Venezuelan mining.
• Iran:
  • IRGC and Hezbollah presence; confirmable operational infrastructure.
  • Iranian missile/drone manufacturing facilities within range of the U.S.
  • Documented weapons transfers since 2020.
• Russia:
  • Significant military presence (“over 120 Russian troops...leading what Ukrainian intelligence identifies as the Equator Taskforce”).
  • Wagner Group operates in-country.
  • Venezuelan military equipped with Russian fighters and anti-ship missiles.
• National Security Threat:
  • All three nations are U.S. adversaries and use Venezuela as an operational base in the Western Hemisphere.
  • [10:18] “We can take them all three separately because they all three operate in the country and they have been for a while…” – Tracy
  • [11:24] “We had Marco Rubio confirm...IRGC maintains an anchor presence in Venezuela with Hezbollah operating alongside....weapon systems within range to hit Florida…” – Tracy

Flawed U.S. Strategies and Regime Change

• Superficial “Victory” Post-Maduro:
  • Removing Maduro hasn’t dismantled the regime or its security apparatus.
  • Most power figures remain, criminal gangs operate with impunity, and pro-American individuals face lethal risks.
  • [14:35] “Nothing has really changed from a regime standpoint...I would have to guess...they are going to have to have either an election or the opposition party is going to have to take over.” – Tracy
• Ongoing Instability and Covert Operations:
  • There might be more covert U.S. operations forthcoming or underway.
  • [16:10] “That is not a decisive victory...there is a very large possibility that we see more operations in that country, whether we overtly hear about them or not...” – Tracy

The Cuban Connection & U.S. Political Calculus

• Senator Marco Rubio’s Strategy:
  • Uses Venezuela as leverage to pressure the Cuban regime; aims to break ties between the two dictatorships.
  • [17:47] “He has been a very long proponent against the Maduro regime, against the regime in Cuba...a lifelong passion project…” – Tracy

Reshoring Supply Chains & Mining in North America

• Encouraging Trends:

  • U.S. government efforts to shift both manufacturing and mining (not just one) to North America.
  • Investment in companies extracting critical minerals (Lithium Americas, MP, etc.).
  • Progress with streamlining permitting for new mines.
  • [20:01] “It’s encouraging to see we are moving supply chains away from China...trying to bring mining back to North America…” – Tracy

• Public Perception Barrier:

  • Long-standing negative perceptions of mining impede progress; environmental safety standards are much higher today.
  • [21:55] “Mining is a very dirty industry and nobody wants it in their backyard...Unfortunately, there is going to have to be a change of mental capacity around the mining industry…” – Tracy

Economic Outlook for 2026

• Risks:
  • Inflation is still not under control; requires close monitoring.
  • Labor and housing markets are strong concerns, especially regarding affordability.
  • [23:02] “We need to keep an eye on inflation, because I’m not sure we quite have that beat…” – Tracy

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• [02:52] “What people really need to be focusing on is…critical minerals as well as the influence of China, Iran and Russia on the Western hemisphere right in our backyard.” — Tracy Shuchart
• [06:35] “ExxonMobil...saying Venezuela is uninvestable right now. And so oil companies are not looking to jump into Venezuela. They've been burned in Venezuela before.” — Tracy Shuchart
• [10:18] “We can take them all three separately because they all three operate in the country and they have been for a while.” — Tracy Shuchart
• [11:24] “The IRGC maintains an anchor presence in Venezuela with Hezbollah operating alongside...this is in our backyard. This is operational infrastructure...significant enough to hit Florida if they wanted.” — Tracy Shuchart
• [14:35] “Nothing has really changed from a regime standpoint. The regime is still leading that country.” — Tracy Shuchart
• [16:10] “That is not a decisive victory...I would not be surprised if there’s things going on strategically below the surface that we probably are not privy to.” — Tracy Shuchart
• [21:55] “Mining is a very dirty industry and nobody wants it in their backyard. Processing is even dirtier...but certainly in the United States, we have regulations.” — Tracy Shuchart

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Background of Guest & NinjaTrader: [01:28] – [02:31]
• Shifting the Narrative: Oil vs. Critical Minerals: [02:31] – [06:35]
• Venezuela's Declining Oil Sector: [06:35] – [08:27]
• Public Perception vs. Reality: [08:27] – [09:46]
• Chinese, Russian, and Iranian Operations in Venezuela: [09:46] – [13:09]
• On Regime Change & Stability Post-Maduro: [13:09] – [16:10]
• U.S./Cuba/Venezuela Political Strategy (Rubio): [17:17] – [18:19]
• Reshoring Supply Chains & Mining Policy: [19:32] – [22:56]
• Economic Outlook for 2026: [22:56] – [23:44]

Tone & Final Thoughts

The conversation is both analytical and urgent, with Tracy offering nuanced, evidence-based critiques of simplistic government narratives and media coverage. The tone is frank, strategic, and deeply informed by the realities of commodities markets and international geopolitics. Both host and guest agree: Venezuela's future, and its significance in the hemispheric balance of power, are far from settled—and the minerals beneath its soil are set to fuel the next great contest.