Newt’s World Episode 947: Will AI Take My Job?
Host: Newt Gingrich
Guest: Leah Palagashvili, Senior Research Fellow & Director of Labor Policy Project, Mercatus Center, George Mason University
Date: February 20, 2026

Episode Overview

This episode explores the future of work in the age of artificial intelligence (AI), focusing on the fundamental question: “Will AI take my job?” Former Speaker Newt Gingrich discusses with economist Leah Palagashvili how AI is transforming not just individual jobs, but the entire structure of work, potentially enabling more self-employment, changing the way benefits are delivered, and forcing a reexamination of labor law, education, and the social safety net. The conversation draws from viral essays and academic research, combining historical context with present trends and potential future scenarios.

Key Themes & Discussion Points

1. How AI Is Changing Work

• Empowerment Through Automation (03:00):

  • AI is already reorganizing tasks, freeing workers from mundane duties, and raising productivity.
  • Example: Palagashvili’s research assistant shifted from data tasks (now handled by AI tools) to communication and public speaking.
  • Quote [03:06]:

    “She was able to give those tasks to some AI tools and then focus on things that she actually wanted to build on... focus on the things that I really want to do, which is speaking, communicating, writing and so forth.”
    —Leah Palagashvili

• Beyond Replacement: Changing Organizational Structures (04:30):

  • AI reduces the "minimum scale" required to operate independently.
  • In the past, consultants depended on firm resources; today, AI allows them to serve clients solo.
  • The shift is from firm-based employment to increased self-employment.

2. The Role of Transaction Costs in the Evolution of Work

• Historical Analogy: Uber and the Gig Economy (06:14):
  • Before Uber, high "transaction costs" made peer-to-peer ridesharing impractical.
  • AI now drops transaction costs for knowledge work, enabling individuals to contract out services more easily.
  • Quote [06:50]:

    “Uber didn’t just create an app… it dramatically lowered those coordination and trust costs. And that drop in transaction costs is what enabled the expansion of the gig economy… I think we're going to see the same thing with AI.”
    —Leah Palagashvili

3. Historical Parallels: Technology and Job Creation

• Lessons from Agriculture and the ATM Example (07:53, 10:10):
  • Technological advances shift jobs but historically lead to new markets and professions (e.g., airplane pilots).
  • ATMs increased bank teller employment by making banking more accessible and expanding branches.
  • Quote [10:41]:

    “...more workers started to go into the relational roles at the banks instead of at the ATM... [AI] can actually augment workers and change the tasks and jobs that are done, not necessarily replace workers.”
    —Leah Palagashvili

4. AI’s Impact on Productivity, Especially for Lower-Skilled Workers

• Unexpected Gains (11:48):
  • Studies show the greatest productivity gains go to lower-skilled or less-experienced workers.
  • This counters the expectation that technology only benefits the highly skilled.
  • Potential to revitalize “middle-class” jobs.
  • Quote [12:19]:

    “These lower skilled or less experienced workers often see… huge productivity gains when AI can support them.”
    —Leah Palagashvili

5. The Shift Toward Self-Employment and Policy Implications

• Portable Benefits, Health Care, and Labor Law (15:44):
  • The safety net and benefits system were designed for W2 (employee) work; more self-employment undermines this model.
  • Call for “portable benefits” not tied to a single employer—benefits would travel with the worker.
  • Younger generations are entering the workforce as entrepreneurs and influencers, not traditional employees.
  • Quote [16:20]:

    “Portable benefit systems… are worker owned, they travel with the worker, they’re not tied to a particular job or company…”
    —Leah Palagashvili

6. Challenges for Policy and Organized Labor

• Congressional Hearings and Policy Gaps (19:24):
  • Need for legislative attention to new solo entrepreneurial structures, tax, health insurance, and record-keeping—much of which can be managed with AI.
  • Unions often resist new approaches, focusing on misclassification, rather than adapting to new realities.
  • Quote [21:26]:

    “How are unions going to operate in that framework in that modern economy? ...How can we create a system that allows for worker voice aspect to thrive, but how do we move away from… monopoly bargaining structures?”
    —Leah Palagashvili

7. AI and Education: Preparing for the Future

• Divergent Models (23:17):
  • China introduces AI to children from age six; other models advocate delaying to preserve critical thinking skills.
  • Uncertainty remains over best educational practices for an AI-dominated future.
  • Quote [24:08]:

    “AI is a whole nother ball game because it can make you maybe think in a more lazy way… It might force you to unlock those critical thinking skills and dig deeper.”
    —Leah Palagashvili

8. Political Landscape and Future Tradeoffs

• Bipartisan “Pro-Worker” Shift (25:44):
  • Both major U.S. parties increasingly champion “pro-worker” policies.
  • Tradeoffs: Short-term wage or benefit gains from labor policy shifts can produce long-term costs (slow employment growth, automation, downsizing).
  • Quote [26:38]:

    “If you have significant wage gain increases, new rigid rules in a way that is not offset by increases in productivity, you’re going to get... slower employment growth, layoffs, more pushes towards automation.”
    —Leah Palagashvili

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Opportunity:

  “Every tech shock in the past on net has created more jobs... we’re going to have new jobs and markets created that we can’t even imagine.”
  —Leah Palagashvili, [08:35]

• On AI's Surprise Effects:

  “ATMs didn’t eliminate tellers... employment rose for tellers... More local branches requiring more tellers, even if the branch had an ATM outside. It’s just interesting how it doesn’t quite work the way you expect it to.”
  —Newt Gingrich, [10:10]

• On Education:

  “China is ... training kids as young as six years old to start using AI... But... maybe we should not introduce AI to children this young because they need to develop these critical thinking skills.”
  —Leah Palagashvili, [23:17]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Introduction to Topic & Guest — [00:09–01:45]
• What AI is Doing to the Organization of Work — [02:52–05:14]
• Transaction Costs & Historical Parallels — [05:30–08:35]
• Tech Advances and Unexpected Job Growth — [07:53–11:48]
• Productivity Gains for Lower Skilled Workers — [11:48–13:54]
• Self-Employment, Portable Benefits & Policy Shifts — [15:44–19:24]
• Labor Law, Union Challenges — [19:57–23:01]
• AI in Education — [23:17–25:17]
• Pro-worker Political Realignment & Tradeoffs — [25:44–27:21]

Conclusion

Newt Gingrich and Leah Palagashvili provide a nuanced and forward-thinking look at how AI is not only automating tasks, but fundamentally altering the fabric of employment, making it easier for individuals to become entrepreneurs or independent workers. The episode highlights the need to adapt institutions, benefits, education, and labor law to this rapidly changing reality—emphasizing the unpredictable, creative, and expansive impact of technological revolutions on the labor market.

For more on Leah Palagashvili’s research: Mercatus.org