Newt’s World, Episode 955: The Global Impact of the War in Iran
Date: March 14, 2026
Host: Newt Gingrich
Guest: Steve Tsang, Director of the SOAS China Institute
Episode Overview
In this episode, Newt Gingrich is joined by China expert Steve Tsang to explore the wider global ramifications of the ongoing US and Israeli military intervention in Iran. Their discussion delves into how China views the Middle East, Xi Jinping's long-term strategy for Chinese global preeminence, the role of the Global South, and the ripple effects such conflicts have on US-China competition, particularly around strategic flashpoints like Taiwan. The conversation is rich in historical context and delivers a candid, unvarnished look at the intersection of contemporary war, geostrategy, and global power shifts.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. China’s Current Global Strategy and Perspective on the Middle East
(02:40–05:19; 19:00–21:05)
- Modern China's Strategy:
- Steve Tsang asserts that China, unlike 15 years ago, now executes a sophisticated global strategy under Xi Jinping.
- The Chinese aim is not merely to compete for global hegemony against the US, but to establish “Chinese global preeminence” by undermining US standing and building international support.
- “From their perspective, at the moment, the United States is doing a very fine job fulfilling Xi Jinping's global strategy in the Middle East. It is alienating friends. It is making the US appear as a bit of an unreasonable hegemon.” (Steve Tsang, 04:09)
- Middle East as an Opportunity and Challenge:
- China sees the Middle East as vital for energy security and as a region where US entanglement enables Chinese advancement.
- The Middle East is pivotal for China’s outreach to the Global South and an arena where it positions itself as a leader of developing nations.
2. Xi Jinping’s Consolidation of Power and the Military Purge
(05:19–09:51)
- Military Purges and Power Dynamics:
- Xi Jinping is consolidating his authority, even ousting top generals who stray from his paradigm, notably General Zhang Yousha.
- “Once you have somebody like General Zhang... removed by Xi Jinping for doing what he thought was the right thing for the military, I don't think you are going to find another general in the PLA who will attempt to do that moving forward.” (Steve Tsang, 08:30)
- Era Comparison:
- Tsang believes Xi is now the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao, but with a unique vision.
- “He is not trying to imitate Mao Zedong… He is creating, establishing and consolidating the Xi Jinping era which he believes will be the greatest ever…” (Steve Tsang, 09:17)
3. China’s 2049 Vision: The “China Dream”
(09:51–13:09)
- Centenary Goals:
- Xi’s vision ties strongly to the 2049 centenary of the People’s Republic, symbolizing national rejuvenation and preeminence.
- “His idea of the China dream of national rejuvenation, if I may borrow from your president's language, is to make China great again.” (Steve Tsang, 11:27)
- “Preeminence,” Not Hegemony:
- China’s model is global preeminence without the baggage of prior Western empires—at least by its own narrative.
- Beijing claims its ascendancy is “kingly,” “civilized,” and “non hegemonic”—contradicting its own expansionist history, as Tsang notes wryly.
4. Manipulating History for Modern Purposes
(13:09–18:53)
- Constructed Narratives:
- Xi Jinping strategically adapts and weaponizes history to legitimize his regime's actions.
- “Xi Jinping in fact makes up the history that is appropriate for what he wants to do.” (Newt Gingrich, 18:32)
- “And the history is there to…serve the people…The Party represents the people.” (Steve Tsang, 18:44)
- Historical Realities:
- The reality: China’s history is full of conquests and assimilation, contrary to party rhetoric.
5. China's Positioning Amidst US-Iran Conflict
(21:05–24:58)
- Iran’s Strategic Role:
- Iran is a “comprehensive strategic partner” for China, key for energy and diplomatic influence.
- China’s mediation between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and its narrative post-Gaza war, aims to present Beijing as a benevolent, anti-hegemonic actor.
- US Attack on Iran: Mixed Blessings for China:
- Discredits the West’s stance on Ukraine (“If the Western alliance criticized Russia for the war in Ukraine, how can the Western alliance not criticize the United States for using force against Iran?”—Steve Tsang, 22:51).
- Disrupts the global economy in ways that damage the US and its allies, while China had preemptively stockpiled oil.
- Temporary risk for Chinese tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, but expectation that order will be restored and Chinese commerce prioritized.
6. Risks & Scenarios: Regime Change, US Distraction, and Taiwan
(29:02–35:44)
- Iranian Regime Stability:
- China deems US-induced regime change in Iran unlikely except with massive American ground presence, and would support regime survival if asked.
- Strategic US Distraction:
- US military focus on Iran could weaken its presence in the Indo-Pacific, especially around Taiwan.
- “America may well be redeploying the Patriot and thaad batteries from South Korea to the Middle East…But will that therefore result in China invading Taiwan? I don't think so.” (Steve Tsang, 30:55)
- Xi Jinping’s Calculated Approach to Taiwan:
- No invasion unless PLA is ready; Xi is a careful, not reckless, risk-taker—no rush, time is on his side.
- Amphibious invasion of Taiwan described as “one of the most difficult operations to begin with.”
- Munitions shortages in both the US and, potentially, China suggest no side is prepared for a short, sharp war.
7. Military Logistics and Technological Change
(35:17–36:59)
- Modern Warfare Constraints:
- Modern missiles and defense systems (e.g. Patriot) are slow and expensive to produce—no WWII-style rearmament possible.
- Lessons from Ukraine: smart, cost-effective counter-drone tech could have mitigated Western munitions depletion in the Middle East.
Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments
-
On Chinese strategy and US Middle East entanglement:
- “From their perspective, at the moment, the United States is doing a very fine job fulfilling Xi Jinping's global strategy in the Middle East. It is alienating friends.”
— Steve Tsang, (04:09)
- “From their perspective, at the moment, the United States is doing a very fine job fulfilling Xi Jinping's global strategy in the Middle East. It is alienating friends.”
-
On Xi Jinping’s vision:
- “He is not trying to imitate Mao Zedong…He is creating, establishing and consolidating the Xi Jinping era which he believes will be the greatest ever.”
— Steve Tsang, (09:17)
- “He is not trying to imitate Mao Zedong…He is creating, establishing and consolidating the Xi Jinping era which he believes will be the greatest ever.”
-
On 2049 and psychological supercharging:
- “Xi Jinping had defined that as the date when his China dream of national rejuvenation needs to be achieved.” — Steve Tsang, (11:27)
-
On constructed history:
- “Xi Jinping in fact makes up the history that is appropriate for what he wants to do.”
— Newt Gingrich, (18:32)
- “Xi Jinping in fact makes up the history that is appropriate for what he wants to do.”
-
On double standards:
- “If the Western alliance criticized Russia for the war in Ukraine, how can the Western alliance not criticize the United States for using force against Iran?”
— Steve Tsang, (22:51)
- “If the Western alliance criticized Russia for the war in Ukraine, how can the Western alliance not criticize the United States for using force against Iran?”
-
On amphibious warfare:
- “Taiwan had a dozen or less beaches where any kind of landing could be done…They are much more difficult amphibian operations to begin with. And that's why…the Chinese would be very careful.”
— Steve Tsang, (33:31)
- “Taiwan had a dozen or less beaches where any kind of landing could be done…They are much more difficult amphibian operations to begin with. And that's why…the Chinese would be very careful.”
-
On modern munitions and warfighting:
- “Nobody is today able to build a warship a day and a hundred aircraft a week in shorter time space…Those weapons have become so complicated, so sophisticated and therefore time consuming.”
— Steve Tsang, (35:17)
- “Nobody is today able to build a warship a day and a hundred aircraft a week in shorter time space…Those weapons have become so complicated, so sophisticated and therefore time consuming.”
Timestamps for Key Segments
| Segment/topic | Timestamps | |---------------------------------------------------------|---------------| | Introduction & SOAS China Institute | 02:40–03:25 | | China’s view of the Middle East, US strategy | 04:02–05:19 | | Xi Jinping’s leadership style and military purges | 05:19–09:51 | | Xi's “China Dream,” 2049 vision, and historical mythmaking| 09:51–13:09 | | Chinese historical narrative and reality | 17:02–18:53 | | China's Middle East interests and role of Global South | 19:00–21:05 | | China-Iran partnership and global perceptions | 21:05–24:58 | | Strait of Hormuz & risk to Chinese energy security | 24:39–26:22 | | US military redeployment and Taiwan scenario | 30:23–35:44 | | Military logistics and new technology in warfare | 35:17–36:59 | | Conclusion and acknowledgments | 37:09 |
Style & Tone
Throughout, the dialogue remains thoughtful, probing, and direct. Gingrich's informed curiosity blends with Tsang’s academic precision and willingness to counter prevailing myths with historical and strategic realities. The tone is conversational, accessible, and clear-eyed about global stakes.
Summary Takeaway
This episode delivers nuanced insights into how the war in Iran reverberates far beyond the Middle East, accelerating competitions over global narratives, alliances, and power balances. Xi Jinping’s China emerges not as a simplistic rival, but as a calculating, risk-aware force using history, opportunity, and strategic patience to advance an ambitious vision—one with major implications for the US, its allies, and the world order.