Newt’s World Episode 956: "AI and the U.S. Military"

Original Air Date: March 15, 2026
Host: Newt Gingrich
Guest: Michael Horowitz, Senior Fellow for Technology and Innovation, Council on Foreign Relations

Episode Overview

This episode delves into the intersection of artificial intelligence (AI) and the U.S. military. Host Newt Gingrich is joined by Michael Horowitz, a leading expert on emerging military technologies, to discuss the slow adoption of AI within the Department of Defense (DoD), the recent dispute between the AI company Anthropic and the Pentagon, and the sweeping implications of AI for national and global security. The conversation is rich with historical context, policy analysis, and speculation about the future of warfare in an AI-driven world.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The Pentagon's Cautious Experimentation with AI

• Why Is Military AI Adoption Slow?

  • Horowitz attributes the Pentagon’s caution to its long-standing dominance: “When you're the best, it's hard to transform because every day the US Military is in fact the best. And so change seems risky.” (05:26)
  • There’s institutional inertia: top leaders are reluctant to invest in unproven technologies that could disrupt the current system—even though they acknowledge the transformative potential of AI.

• Historical Parallels with Military Reform

  • Gingrich recalls resistance to past reforms, like the transition to "jointness" post-Goldwater-Nichols and early rejections of aircraft carriers by battleship admirals, emphasizing the perennial struggle to modernize the military. (06:18–08:35)

2. Three Buckets: How the Military Uses AI (09:58)

• Bucket 1: Back-Office Functions
  • AI for logistics, human resources, inventory management—mirroring commercial uses.
• Bucket 2: Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR)
  • AI processes massive data streams (from satellites, sensors, etc.) to provide commanders with fast, actionable insights. “It becomes an incredible teammate to help speed up that process of getting more accurate information to commanders.” (11:39)
• Bucket 3: Warfighting and Autonomy
  • AI as decision support for commanders near the battlefield and the development of increasingly autonomous weapons, from semi- to fully autonomous strike systems.

3. Autonomous Weapons and Human Oversight

• Collaborative Combat Aircraft:
  • The U.S. Air Force is developing fighter jets accompanied by multiple “loyal wingman” drones, which are semi-autonomous but still under human control for lethal actions. (15:36)
  • “This isn’t science fiction anymore. This is becoming reality…We are on track to start fielding some of those systems before 2030.” – Michael Horowitz (15:36)
• True Autonomy?
  • Horowitz explains that, for now, humans still make the final decision to use force, but future increments may see greater autonomy as trust and technology mature. (16:47–18:04)
  • Discussion of existing semi-autonomous munitions (e.g., Javelin and radar-guided missiles) highlights that increasing autonomy is an evolutionary process. (18:44)

4. The Pentagon–Anthropic Dispute: A Case Study

• The Disagreement:

  • Anthropic, an AI company, developed a model (claudegov) for classified use but requested assurances it wouldn’t be used for mass surveillance of Americans or in fully autonomous lethal systems. Negotiations broke down, leading to a high-profile lawsuit and the Pentagon labeling Anthropic a supply chain risk.
  • “This is a tragedy. And my bottom line up front on that is the winner is China.” – Michael Horowitz (19:46)

• Breakdown of Trust:

  • “The Pentagon didn’t trust that Anthropic would be there for important national security use cases. Anthropic didn’t trust that the Pentagon would use its technology responsibly.” (21:29)
  • The irony: The military continued to use Anthropic’s systems even after the fallout due to their operational value. (22:11)

• Industry Ramifications:

  • Other AI firms (OpenAI, Microsoft, Elon Musk's X.ai) are reacting, some stepping in, some supporting Anthropic’s legal case to protect their own interests. Disentangling Anthropic from current DoD operations will be costly and complex. (23:36–25:05)

5. Inevitability of AI Proliferation in Defense

• General Purpose Technology:
  • Horowitz likens AI to electricity: “Every office in the Pentagon will be using artificial intelligence in one way or another…algorithms embedded in every American military platform in the coming decades. And I do think that that is inevitable.” (28:27)
• Pace & Global Competition:
  • The key question is whether the U.S. can maintain its edge and implement AI fast and responsibly enough to stay ahead of China and other actors. (28:27–29:48)

6. The Shift to Mass, Low-Cost Weaponry

• Cost Declines & Changing Battlefield Economics:

  • Cheap, effective drones and missiles are now ubiquitous—even non-state actors have precision strike capabilities. “The Houthis generated, you know, a billion dollars in economic damage, essentially firing flying lawnmowers that cost $20,000 a pop…Our sailors would sometimes fire million dollar missiles to shoot them down. That's not a good cost exchange ratio.” – Michael Horowitz (30:15)
  • Viral proliferation: Ukraine’s DIY drone revolution, the U.S. reverse engineering cheap Iranian drones for its own use (Lucas platform), and general spread of strike capabilities. (30:15–32:08)

• Strategic Shift Required:

  • The U.S. must shift to a “high-low mix” of expensive, exquisite systems (like Tomahawks) and truly low-cost, high-volume weapons—adopting Ukraine’s innovations and rethinking procurement. (33:55)
  • Current budget allocations remain heavily weighted toward legacy systems, with comparatively negligible investment in low-cost tools despite rhetorical recognition of their value. (34:48–36:01)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Transformation Resistance:
  “Sometimes when you’re the best, it’s hard to transform because every day the US Military is in fact the best. And so change seems risky.”
  — Michael Horowitz (05:26)

• On Historical Military Reform:
  “During the liberation of Grenada, an army officer had to go to a payphone, use his credit card, call the Pentagon to get a friend to call the Navy to tell them that the army and Navy radios were not working together.”
  — Newt Gingrich (08:01)

• On AI’s General Purpose Role:
  “Every office in the Pentagon will be using artificial intelligence in one way or another…algorithms embedded in every American military platform in the coming decades. And I do think that that is inevitable to some extent.”
  — Michael Horowitz (28:27)

• On Supply Chain Risk Labeling:
  “If you have negotiations that go south with the Pentagon and then the Pentagon doesn’t just cancel your contract, they also…try to take out your business…that creates a risk for everyone.”
  — Michael Horowitz (23:36)

• On Low-Cost Warfare:
  “The Houthis generated, you know, a billion dollars in economic damage, essentially firing flying lawnmowers that cost $20,000 a pop…And our sailors would sometimes fire million dollar missiles to shoot them down. That's not a good cost exchange ratio.”
  — Michael Horowitz (30:15)

• On Budget Priorities:
  “Even then we're talking what, like 1% of the defense budget? Something like that. It's a lot of money to me or you, but for the Pentagon, it's a fraction of what one aircraft carrier costs.”
  — Michael Horowitz (35:00)

• Concise Visual:
  “The battlefield is a very harsh rejecter of incompetence and the prices are enormous.”
  — Newt Gingrich (18:04)

Timestamps for Major Segments

| Time | Segment & Focus | | ----------- | ----------------------------------------------------------- | | 03:10 | Introduction: Anthropic/DoD Dispute; Guest Introduction | | 05:02 | Slow Pace of AI Adoption in the Military | | 06:41 | “Age of Precise Mass” in Warfare | | 09:58 | Three Buckets of Military AI Use | | 15:17 | Autonomous & Semi-Autonomous Combat Aircraft | | 19:26 | Evolution of Autonomy; Real-world Precedents | | 19:46 | Pentagon–Anthropic Fight: Details and Implications | | 23:08 | Tech Industry Response, Effect on Future Partnerships | | 28:09 | Inevitable Proliferation of AI in Defense | | 29:48 | Falling Costs and Rise of Low-Cost, High-Volume Weapons | | 33:28 | High-Low Mix: Shifting U.S. Defense Procurement Strategy | | 34:48 | Sclerotic Budget Processes, Underfunding of New Weapons | | 36:02 | Closing Thoughts and Guest Farewell |

Thematic Takeaways

• The DoD’s conservatism in the face of radical technological change is rooted in institutional success and structural inertia.
• AI’s impact comes in waves—from efficiencies in logistics, to reshaping real-time battlefield awareness, to new frontiers in autonomous lethality.
• The Anthropic controversy highlights the tension between military necessity, commercial tech ethics, and bureaucratic politics—potentially impacting America’s strategic edge.
• The future of warfare is defined by low-cost, high-volume technological diffusion; the U.S. must adapt or risk strategic obsolescence.
• The infrastructure, procurement, and budget realities need to catch up to the rapidly shifting technological landscape to maintain U.S. military superiority.

For listeners interested in the cutting edge of military technology, defense policy, and the real-world drama at the intersection of government and Silicon Valley, this episode offers historical insight, candid analysis, and a sense of urgency about what comes next.