Newt's World – Episode 958: What’s Next for Cuba

Host: Newt Gingrich (Gingrich 360)
Guest: Dr. William LeoGrande, Professor of Government and Latin American Affairs, American University
Date: March 22, 2026

Episode Overview

In this episode, Newt Gingrich delves into the rapidly changing political and economic landscape of Cuba, exploring U.S.-Cuba relations in the context of wider Latin American shifts and recent U.S. foreign policy actions. Gingrich is joined by Cuba expert Dr. William LeoGrande, who provides historical background, analyzes Cuba’s deepening crisis, and discusses the possible future pathways for the Cuban regime in the wake of U.S. pressure and regional upheaval—especially following dramatic changes in Venezuela. Together, they examine the prospects for reform, the influence of global powers, and the complicated legacy of the U.S.-Cuba relationship.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Opening Context – U.S. on the World Stage (02:40–11:14)

• Gingrich reflects on current American foreign policy under President Trump, noting the administration's bold moves in Venezuela, its posture toward Iran, and its efforts in Ukraine and the Middle East, crediting Trump with "profoundly changing history."

  • Quote (Newt Gingrich, 08:11):
    “America is a place where we just keep inventing the future. So I'm an optimist... the Cuban dictatorship is almost certainly going to evolve and will not be able to survive as an anti-American dictatorship... All of this is a tribute to Donald Trump, which of course, nobody in the media is ever going to give him credit for.”

• Gingrich signals the main focus: a conversation with Dr. William LeoGrande about Cuba’s future amid profound crisis.

2. Cuba’s Revolutionary Origins & U.S.-Cuba Relations (12:37–16:46)

• The Cuban Revolution’s legacy

  • Dr. LeoGrande recounts how Fidel Castro’s revolution ousted Batista's dictatorship and swiftly moved towards socialism, ensnaring Cuba in Cold War hostilities.
    • Quote (Dr. William LeoGrande, 12:56):
      “It was really a revolution initially against the military dictatorship Fulgencio Batista… Fidel Castro emerged as the leader... [and] gradually that evolved… into a socialist revolution. And relations with the United States… deteriorated pretty rapidly as a result of that.”

• Property seizures and unresolved claims:

  • The mass nationalization of U.S. and Cuban-owned assets (1960–61) left behind two classes of unresolved legal claims, one for U.S. citizens and another for Cuban Americans.

  • Cuba has acknowledged the need to settle certified U.S. claims but not Cuban Americans’ claims.

  • Dr. LeoGrande notes that with Cuba's current economic malaise, compensating claimants would require creative, long-term financial mechanisms.

    • Quote (Dr. William LeoGrande, 16:46):
      “At the moment they don't have any resources... But there's a long history of countries settling claims... Most of the commercial claims, those are properties now that the claimants really don't want to reclaim. What [they] would like to have is some kind of financial compensation and new access to the Cuban market.”

3. The Arc of Cuban Economic Crisis (17:47–23:12)

• 1950s Cuba: Prosperity and Inequality

  • Cuba enjoyed relative affluence in the 1950s but with deep inequalities, especially along racial lines, fueling social unrest.
    • Quote (Dr. William LeoGrande, 18:15):
      “Cuba was in the 1950s, one of the more developed Latin American countries economically, but it suffered from tremendous inequalities... there had always been... enormous discrepancy between middle class and upper class Cubans... and poor Afro-Cubans living in rural areas.”

• Post-Soviet hardship vs. Current Crisis:

  • Cuba suffered catastrophic economic collapse after the Soviet Union withdrew support, losing 35% of GDP in the early 1990s.
  • Cuba’s recent malaise mirrors that era, worsened by the collapse of Venezuelan oil support and ratcheted-up U.S. sanctions, especially after the U.S.-led ouster of Maduro.

    • Quote (Dr. William LeoGrande, 20:20):
      “In the very early years... the revolution was very popular... but the problem was Cuba was a poor country still... When the Soviet Union collapsed, the Cuban economy collapsed with it.”

    • Quote (Dr. William LeoGrande, 21:45):
      “Since January 3rd, when the United States grabbed President Maduro, Venezuela has not sent any oil to Cuba. And that has been a disaster for the Cuban economy... right now, nobody's sending oil to Cuba, and about 60% of their oil is normally imported.”

4. U.S. Policy Shifts: Obama, Trump, Biden (23:12–26:51)

• Obama’s Opening, Trump’s Hard Line, Biden’s Hesitation:
  • Gingrich and LeoGrande discuss Obama’s attempt at rapprochement, the reversal under Trump, and Biden’s surprising unwillingness to return to the Obama-era approach—even after promising to do so.
  • Dr. LeoGrande attributes Biden’s stance to Cold War-style rhetoric, Cuba’s authoritarian crackdown on 2021 protests, and changing domestic politics in South Florida.
    • Quote (Dr. William LeoGrande, 23:56):
      “Biden always had a commitment to internationally recognized human rights. And I think he felt like he couldn't move forward with a better relationship with Cuba in the wake of that [2021] crackdown... There's always been the domestic political consideration of the political power of the Cuban American community in South Florida.”

5. Rubio, Venezuela, and the “Don Row Doctrine” (29:42–32:25)

• Rubio’s rise to national security leadership:
  • Sen. Marco Rubio, now National Security Advisor and Secretary of State, infuses policy with his personal legacy as the child of Cuban exiles.
  • The administration formalizes the “Don Row Doctrine” (echoing the Monroe Doctrine) — the U.S. aims for unchallenged dominance in the Western Hemisphere, accelerating pressure on adversarial regimes.
    • Quote (Dr. William LeoGrande, 30:56):
      “The security document claims that the United States must be preeminent in the Western Hemisphere. The President himself has used the word dominant... Now we're seeing pressure on Cuba... Nicaragua... may be next on the agenda.”

6. The Limits and Dangers of Regime Change (32:25–37:00)

• Negotiations with Cuba:

  • Ongoing U.S.-Cuba talks are largely economic, not political, despite hardline rhetoric; both sides may be maneuvering for gradual reform.
    • Quote (Dr. William LeoGrande, 32:55):
      “[Rubio has] been emphasizing the economic side... and he's been careful to say, well, change has to be gradual. It's not going to change overnight... There needs to be dramatic economic change and political change—eventually. He said, now, I thought that was a really interesting adverb.”

• Potential scenarios:

  • Economic recovery is possible through phased U.S. engagement, but failure risks social unrest and a migration crisis.
    • Quote (Dr. William LeoGrande, 36:25):
      “If we don't get an agreement and the current situation continues, the Cuban economy is going to collapse in relatively short order and you're going to have massive social unrest... and potentially a migration crisis like we saw in 1980, 1994 and after COVID.”

7. The Marco Rubio Factor in U.S. Foreign Policy (40:28–43:53)

• Rubio’s global influence:

  • Gingrich marvels at Rubio’s deft diplomacy (especially at the Munich Security Conference), likening him to Kissinger in his dual roles.
  • LeoGrande predicts Rubio’s legacy will partially hinge on the outcome with Iran but highlights his visible authority on Cuba.

• Cuba vs. Venezuela: Systems of Power:

  • LeoGrande notes the resilience of Cuban institutions compared to the more factionalized Venezuelan system; in Cuba, change would require negotiation due to its tightly organized Marxist-Leninist regime.
    • Quote (Dr. William LeoGrande, 43:53):
      “In Cuba, it's a much more institutionalized and hierarchical system... if Miguel Diaz-Canel, the president, had a heart attack tomorrow, they'd just pick a new president... the regime is just too institutionalized… But... the current leadership would be able to make that deal stick.”

8. The Role of Russia and China (46:18–48:41)

• Limited external rescue:
  • Neither Russia nor China are willing or able to bail Cuba out as the Soviets once did. China's relationship is commercial and focused on renewables; Russia's limited oil support is being blocked by new U.S. sanctions.
    • Quote (Dr. William LeoGrande, 46:40):
      “Neither of them is going to step in financially and save Cuba the way Nikita Khrushchev did in the 1960s... China has a good relationship with Cuba, but it's fundamentally a commercial one more than anything.”
    • Quote (Dr. William LeoGrande, 48:41):
      “I have a hunch they will [turn their tankers around], but it is a little bit reminiscent of the Cuban missile crisis.”

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Optimism about U.S. resilience:
  “Life is a motion picture. Things can change. Events happen. I think that the United States has most of the advantages in the competitions that are going on.”
  — Newt Gingrich (07:38)

• On claims and reconciliation:
  “If the two sides actually have the political will to come to an agreement and settle those claims, there are ways that can be worked out to do that.”
  — Dr. William LeoGrande (16:36)

• Why Biden didn’t return to Obama’s Cuba policy:
  “[Cuban protests were] the first demonstrations like that since 1959. And the government repressed them... President Biden always had a commitment to internationally recognized human rights. And I think he felt like he couldn't move forward with a better relationship with Cuba in the wake of that crackdown.”
  — Dr. William LeoGrande (23:56)

• Rubio’s gradualism:
  “There needs to be dramatic economic change and political change. Eventually.”
  — Dr. William LeoGrande, paraphrasing Secretary Rubio (33:40)

• U.S. focus on economic over political change:
  “The administration has clearly prioritized economic change over political change, particularly getting US Oil companies back into the Venezuelan oil industry.”
  — Dr. William LeoGrande (34:10)

• Cuba’s institutional resilience:
  “In Cuba, it's a much more institutionalized and hierarchical system... the regime is just too institutionalized, and the people at the top are just too committed to do that [capitulate]. But it does mean that... the current leadership would be able to make that deal stick.”
  — Dr. William LeoGrande (44:13)

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Segment | Timestamp | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------| | Gingrich’s opening thoughts on U.S. foreign policy | 02:40–09:12 | | Historical roots of the Cuban crisis with Dr. LeoGrande | 12:37–16:46 | | Property claims, economic collapse, and Soviet/Venezuela dependency | 16:46–23:12 | | U.S. policy: Obama, Trump, Biden | 23:12–26:51 | | Venezuelan regime change and the “Don Row Doctrine” | 29:42–32:25 | | Negotiations and scenarios for Cuba’s economic/political future | 32:25–37:00 | | The global Rubio, comparisons to Kissinger, U.S. approach to regime change| 40:28–43:53 | | Cuba’s institutions versus Venezuela’s | 43:53–46:18 | | The limited leverage of Russia & China | 46:18–48:41 | | Final reflections and show wrap-up | 48:41–49:12 |

Tone & Language

• The conversation is serious, analytical, and focused on geopolitical strategy, with both speakers displaying historical awareness and a sense of the realpolitik of U.S.-Cuban relations.
• Gingrich’s tone is optimistic about American potential and occasionally combative concerning U.S. adversaries.
• Dr. LeoGrande's approach is pragmatic, historically grounded, and cautious—constantly returning to the complexities and hard choices ahead.

Conclusion

This episode offers a sophisticated, historically rich discussion of Cuba’s crossroads moment—caught between deepening crisis, the legacies of revolution and foreign intervention, the hard limits of U.S. confrontation, and the faint but real prospects for a negotiated new relationship with the United States. The evolving roles of leaders such as Rubio, and the limited ability of rival global powers to intervene, set the stage for either a breakthrough or a new period of unrest.

For further reading and Dr. LeoGrande’s work:
Visit Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft