Newt’s World Podcast – Episode 965: The Winston Group on the 2026 Midterm Elections
Date: April 11, 2026
Host: Newt Gingrich
Guests: David Winston and Myra Miller, The Winston Group

Episode Overview

This episode features former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich in conversation with Dave Winston and Myra Miller of The Winston Group, a leading Republican polling and strategy firm. Together, they analyze the upcoming 2026 midterm elections, assess the state of both major parties, and dissect voter sentiment on key economic issues, particularly inflation, wages, and party messaging. Their discussion draws from historical context, recent polling, and insider campaign experiences to forecast political dynamics for the coming cycle.

1. The Dominant Issues of the 2026 Election

• Economic Performance as the Deciding Factor
  • 2024 saw Republicans win across the board, mainly on economic discontent, particularly inflation.
  • The current cycle will be a referendum on the Trump administration’s progress in closing the gap on economic damage attributed to the Biden years.
• Voter Perspective on Inflation
  • Cumulative inflation during Biden’s term exceeded 21%, creating a high "floor" for Trump to address. Households best remember pain in food and electricity costs.
    • “The cumulative level of inflation over that four year period was over 21%. So that was a very high bar for President Trump to have to take on.” – Myra Miller [07:13]
  • There is voter demand not just to slow inflation, but to see a rollback—to have affordability restored to pre-Biden levels.
    • “They wanted to see things become more affordable, not just slow down the rate of becoming unaffordable.” – Newt Gingrich [09:02]

2. Can the GOP Deliver Economic Progress in Time?

• Timing of Improvement
  • Economic perceptions can shift rapidly, with voters noticing change at the point of purchase (e.g., groceries). The "moment" of economic relief could occur any time before the election for individuals.
    • “It’s just that moment when they decide that they're in a better position to really handle cost of living.” – David Winston [08:30]
  • The war in Iran and resulting oil price spikes may temporarily buy the administration time, as voters distinguish between chronic issues and crisis-induced surges.
• Measuring Economic Success
  • Closing the wage-growth vs. price-growth gap is key. Under Biden, prices rose 4.8% faster than wages; Trump has closed that gap to 2.7%, but voters want more.
    • “The challenge isn't to marginally improve things, it's to really fix that situation.” – David Winston [09:45]

3. Messaging, Strategy, and Persistent GOP Shortcomings

• Failure to Claim Credit
  • Historical example: Despite the clear benefits of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, Republicans failed to communicate its personal impact; the narrative was overtaken by Democrats and media.
  • Democrats excel at celebrating legislative victories (e.g., ACA) annually, while Republicans often let their wins fade from public memory.
    • “Democrats, after the ACA... literally celebrate that every year... When was the last time we actually did a celebration of the original Tax Cut and Jobs act, the big beautiful bill?” – David Winston [15:20]
  • Important policy changes (like increased standard deduction) remain unknown; personalization is lacking.
• Lessons from 2018
  • Republicans switched focus from the economy to issues like immigration, diluting their advantage.
    • “Republicans, especially there toward the end, chose to talk about other issues... and it distracted from what could have been an economic election.” – Myra Miller [14:20]

4. The Power and Volatility of Independents

• A Growing, Pivotal Bloc
  • Independents are surging, representing 34% of the 2024 electorate—surpassing Democrats in five of seven competitive states.
  • “Democrats actually were the third party coming in behind independents.” – Myra Miller [20:51]
• Magnitude of Swing
  • Since 2006, control of Congress has often depended on the swings among independents:
    • 2006: Democrats win independents by 18, take the House.
    • 2010: GOP wins independents by 19, swings back.
    • 2022: Despite a Republican-leaning party ID advantage, losing independents by 2 slashed their majority.
    • “The outsized influence independents have... in the competitive districts, they play a central role.” – David Winston [26:21]
• Parties' Struggles with Independents
  • Neither party is effectively adapting strategies for this bloc; they risk becoming “bit players” as independents’ importance grows.
    • “Campaigns and candidates are going to have to... totally retool how they do things because the political parties are in danger of becoming bit players now.” – Myra Miller [27:46]

5. Party Dynamics and Competitiveness

• Democratic Weaknesses
  • The party’s identity is largely defined by its opposition to Trump, with high unfavorables among independents and overall electorate.
    • “Their problem is they don’t have a purpose outside of Donald Trump... That’s fine for their base... the problem is independents don’t.” – David Winston [19:43]
  • Self-identified Democrats dropped to 31% in 2024 (from 37% in 2020)—about 10 million fewer.
• Republican Challenges
  • GOP successes often hampered by ineffective messaging and internal division over focus.
  • Republicans must learn to provide not just an alternative, but a persuasive, positive economic vision.

6. Key States, Candidates, and Senate Dynamics

• Senate Race Landscapes
  • Maine (Senator Collins) and North Carolina remain highly competitive; Ohio and even Alaska could be in play.
  • In states like Georgia (Ossoff) and Michigan (Slotkin), moderate Democrats have gained by focusing on cost-of-living issues.
    • Merely labeling opponents as “leftist” isn’t enough—Republicans need to give voters concrete reasons to switch.
• Strategic Recommendations
  • Every GOP campaign needs:
    • A clear economic strategy highlighting legislative accomplishments and their personal impact (especially the standard deduction).
    • An independent voter strategy tightly intertwined with economic messaging.
    • “If a campaign doesn’t have both those in place, they’re just making life difficult.” – David Winston [29:18]
  • Democrats’ past Senate strategy, framing incumbents with positive ads and local focus, insulated them from national headwinds.

7. Lessons from Recent and Past Elections

• Framing the Big Question
  • Messaging matters: “Are you better off than you were four years ago?” failed Romney in 2012 because it referenced the post-financial crisis nadir, not Obama’s record as incumbent. The better question was, “Is it good enough?”
    • “That question that the Romney campaign posed was really the wrong question. It was about, has he made progress? And the answer was yes.” – Myra Miller [33:13]
  • The Obama team’s sophistication was in shifting blame for a slow economy onto Bush, a strategy Republicans rarely emulate.
    • “Obama figured out the economy wasn’t good enough to run on... but they would believe that it was George W. Bush’s fault.” – Newt Gingrich [32:18]
  • These strategic missteps still haunt Republican campaigns, especially on tax and economic messaging.

8. Notable Quotes & Moments

• On Economic Memory:
  “From the voter perspective, their construct is not from the beginning of Trump's term forward. It really does go much farther, back to January 2021 forward because of those cumulative price increases that people are still carrying.” – Myra Miller [11:01]

• On Partisan Messaging Gaps:
  “They sell a lie better than we explain the truth, because you have this big, beautiful bill...” – Newt Gingrich [13:37]

• On Democratic Party Standing:
  “Their problem is they don’t have a purpose outside of Donald Trump. Basically, that’s their whole discourse with the electorate.” – David Winston [19:43]

9. Predictions & Closing Thoughts

• Senate Control:

  • Republicans have opportunities but must not rely on negative messaging alone.
  • Democrats’ local strategies may again prove effective in contested states.

• Voter Engagement:

  • Both sides face a test in adapting to an electorate where independents are the decisive force, and economic improvement must be both real and perceptible.

• Future Discussions:

  • Newt proposes a future reunion for more analysis: “Maybe sometime later on this summer we could have another chat. I always find it so fun to talk to you two...” [35:49]

Recommended Focus for Campaigns:

1. Personalize the economic message—connect legislative wins to daily lives.
2. Develop bespoke strategies for winning independents.
3. Celebrate and remind voters of key policy victories.
4. Stay disciplined on the central issues voters care about—especially the economy.

For Listeners:
This episode delivers a deep, candid analysis of the midterm election landscape. The Winston Group—true insiders—provide actionable insights on what both parties must do to compete, with a focus on the real-world perceptions of voters and the dynamics that shape modern electoral outcomes.