No Agenda Show – Episode 1850 “Error Bars”

Hosts: Adam Curry & Mimi Smith Dvorak (filling in for John C. Dvorak)
Date: March 12, 2026

Overview

In episode 1850, Adam Curry is joined by Mimi Smith Dvorak for a media deconstruction deep dive, with the title “Error Bars.” The show weaves together real-time global events (including war with Iran, fears of domestic terrorism, oil disruptions, and AI hype), listener feedback, and a healthy dose of humor and skepticism. The first half is heavily news and commentary focused, including hospital updates on John C. Dvorak, while the second half moves into extended producer donations and discussion of community engagement.

Key Topics and Discussion Points

1. John C. Dvorak’s Hospital Situation & Updates

• [01:46] Clip from John in the hospital: He thanks listeners and teases a future food report.
• [02:26] Adam & Mimi discuss John’s rehabilitation and prognosis for his return. John reports pain when laughing or coughing but is optimistic and using his cell phone to keep up.
  • "[John] sounded uncharacteristically grateful...does that make any sense?" — Adam [03:39]
• Mimi answers listener questions about Medicare coverage and hospital billing confusion.
  • "Nobody will tell me [what rehab costs]... above our pay grade.” — Mimi [06:43]

2. Fear, Terror, and Media Deconstruction

a) Domestic Terror Hysteria

• [06:50] Surge in news around Iran sleeper cells, drone strikes, synagogue attacks, and rising anti-Muslim sentiment.
• [07:58] Babylon Bee joke: “Iran canceled the California attack after seeing Gavin Newsom already destroyed it.”
• [09:49] Adam and Mimi deconstruct unconfirmed FBI/ABC reports of Iranian number stations and sleeper codes allegedly threatening the Oscars.
  • “This is bull crap. It is to promote the Oscars...That's the entire reason for the report.” — Adam [13:22]

b) Number Stations & Shortwave Radio

• [12:14] They play reports from “Ringway Manchester” explaining number stations—mysterious shortwave channels for spy communications.
• [15:52] The allegedly “Iranian” number station likely isn’t based in Iran, and its suspicious origins are media-fueled fear-mongering.

c) ISIS-Inspired Teen Attack in NYC

• [21:12] Extended rundown of two Bucks County, PA teenagers who plotted an “ISIS-inspired” attack. Adam and Mimi critique the reporting, noting links between idiocy, parental backgrounds, Pennsylvania’s lax fireworks laws, and how easy it is to find bomb recipes online.
• [24:48] Multiple segments intercut with audio clips showing that “Mother of Satan” (TATP) explosives are not especially high-tech and appear repeatedly in failed US terrorist plots.

3. Islamophobia and Manufactured Fear

• [35:27] Discussion pivots to manufactured anti-Muslim fears in Texas and California.
  • Adam: “Are there some Islamists who are nuts? Of course. But walking around afraid of a brown person is stupid.”
• [37:06] Sky News and CNN are called out for bias: prioritizing coverage of civilian deaths in Iran over attacks in the US; CNN soft-pedaling ISIS links in the NYC teen case.
• [39:47] Adam: “We have exploded a lot of stuff, but... it’s not massive carpet bombing. It’s a new style of warfare.”

4. Oil, Iran War, and Economic Impact

• [44:26] Extended Colin McGregor clip: US actions in Iran threaten global oil supplies, stock values, and global alliances.
  • “We are acting like the biggest bully in the schoolyard. To hell with everybody else.” — McGregor
• [45:33] Quotes from EU's Ursula von der Leyen and discussion of the gas/oil price spikes.
• [46:57] Recap of maritime attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, drone strikes, strategic oil reserves being tapped, and the “pain–for–gain” defense of these moves.
  • Interview with US Energy Secretary: SPR release is a "swap" that will allegedly result in more oil in reserve later.
• [53:39] Regional effects discussed; high gas prices in Washington State are blamed on climate policy.
• [56:37] Logistics of Navy-escorted oil tankers; doubts about US military capacity to truly protect merchant ships.

5. China, Russia, and the Geopolitical Chessboard

• [60:40] Adam: “What we're really doing is fighting China.”
• [61:02] Sky News/Peter Schweitzer segment: Iran conflict exposes Chinese arms as ineffective in battle, as “paper tiger” emerges.
• [63:48] Looming Trump/Xi meeting and trade war rumblings—Section 301 tariffs as the next chess move.
  • Adam: "These are much bigger games... Trump sees this as America First."

6. American Political Life: Partisan Divide & Media Dysfunction

• [69:13] Jesse Jackson Jr.'s funeral devolves into political rally despite requests for civility.
• [71:09] On Trump’s “derangement syndrome”: “If Trump found a cure to cancer, everyone would go—the Trump derangement.”
• [72:01–76:05] American binary culture, virtue signaling, and political polarization—from 1970s Europe anti-Americanism to present-day social divides.

7. Civic Engagement & Voting Concerns

• [76:50] Letter-writing campaigns can still affect local policy—a rare example of actual responsiveness.
• [79:02] Critiques of vote-by-mail—claims of address fraud and unusual voter registrations in Washington State.
• [81:37] Adam and Mimi discuss issues with ballot verification and destruction, raising serious concerns over local election integrity.

8. Artificial Intelligence: Hype, Hysteria, and Reality

a) Mythbusting the AI Boom

• [83:42] Adam is setting up his own AI at home; reads a letter from a disillusioned ex-industry professional.
• [86:17] “Guardrails” are what keeps AI models (barely) functioning—Adam calls the current products “shit.”
• [87:20] “These large language models have zero intelligence. They're just guessing.” — Adam
• [88:20] CNBC Andrew Yang: AI is eating white-collar jobs, but "stay the course" if you’re a coder.
  • “AI is like monkeys doing the dishes, but they lick the plates and put them away.” — Mimi [89:29]

b) Salon AI Deconstructions

• [93:56] Universal Basic Income mooted as a “solution” for mass white-collar joblessness by AI CEOs keen to be taxed.
• [97:03] Adam and Mimi: AI job-loss predictions are exaggerated—reminding listeners of old panics about “word processor” tech and how people adjusted.

c) Silicon Valley Sales Pitch

• [105:38] OpenAI’s Sam Altman: Predicts AGI “sooner rather than later”—but refuses to define it or give examples.
  • “We want to flood the world with intelligence... like electricity or water.” — Altman [116:22]
• [110:16] Mimi: “All I'm hearing is sales pitch... I want to hear from the engineers rolling their eyes at this vaporware.”
• [113:25] Altman uses “error bars” to describe his AGI predictions, giving the episode its title.
• [116:56] OpenAI’s business model is to "sell tokens"—compared to utilities and historic “too cheap to meter” pipe dreams.

9. Community, Value-for-Value, and Listener Engagement

• [118:45] Extended donations/readout session, with dedications to John’s recovery and deep community engagement.
• [128:52] Homeschooling praise: Mimi shares insights on the classical education model and benefits of homeschooling.
• Global community reflected in donations & shoutouts.

10. Surveillance State: DHS, ICE, and Data Merging

• [148:29] NPR report: DHS is expanding surveillance using cross-agency data, license plate readers, and apps like Palantir's Elite.
• [149:33] “Constitutional observers” monitoring ICE get surveilled in return.
• [160:40] Mainstream concern over mass surveillance clashes with Mimi and Adam’s skepticism—"it’s decades too late."
• [162:16] License plate readers used in retail to prosecute shoplifting rings; Adam notes that “in Texas we shoot shoplifters.”
• [164:19] Debate on privacy, surveillance, and the illusion of protection.

11. Lighthearted Moments & Other Segments

• [187:30] Mimi’s Tip of the Day: Panoxyl PM Overnight spot patches for zits (and “blind” pimples), with product advice.
• [186:48] End of Show ISOs:
  • “My balls are killing me.” wins.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “This is bull crap. It is to promote the Oscars...That's the entire reason for the report.” — Adam [13:22]
• “AI is like monkeys doing the dishes, but they lick the plates and put them away.” — Mimi [89:29]
• “Guardrails means with every prompt that you send...hundreds of rules which are the guardrails...because these large language models have zero intelligence.” — Adam [87:20]
• "[CNBC Yang]...AI is full of shit." — CNBC guest report [88:24]
• “We want to flood the world with intelligence. We want people to just use it for everything...like electricity or water.” —Sam Altman, OpenAI [116:22]
• “We have a binary culture. Right.” — Adam [72:01]
• “All I'm hearing is sales pitch... I want to hear from the engineers rolling their eyes at this vaporware.” — Mimi [110:16]
• “Error bars. I could be totally wrong, but maybe that could happen by like late 2028.” — Sam Altman [113:25]
• “Letter writing was actually listened to for the first time in years.” — Mimi [76:50]

Timestamps for Important Segments

| Topic | Timestamp | |---------------------------------------------|-------------| | John C. Dvorak hospital update & tone | 01:46–04:43 | | Medicare confusions, hospital bills | 05:22–06:43 | | Fear-mongering news: Iran, Oscars, drones | 06:50–13:22 | | Number stations, Iran, ABC deconstruction | 12:14–17:05 | | ISIS-inspired teen bomb plot | 21:12–29:27 | | Islamophobia and media bias | 35:27–40:42 | | Colin McGregor on Iran war, economy | 44:26–46:33 | | EU price hike comments | 45:33–46:33 | | Oil, Navy, logistics, energy markets | 46:55–56:37 | | China, Russia, arms: Sky News/Schweitzer | 60:56–63:48 | | AI: Hype, guardrails, Yang, OpenAI, Altman | 83:42–116:56| | DHS, ICE, license plate surveillance | 148:29–164:05| | Mimi’s Tip of the Day (zits) | 187:30–189:59| | End of show ISO voting | 186:48–187:08|

Tone & Style

The signature irreverence and skeptical wit of No Agenda remains:

• They ridicule media fear-mongering and government incompetence.
• They expose "security theater," AI vaporware, and tech buzzwords.
• They embrace their community’s intelligence: “We need a scared population. Scare them!” (satirical).
• Mimi brings up real-world trivia, old-school skills, and “Don Quixote” civic optimism.
• Adam’s penchant for technology critique is in full swing; he’s especially dismissive of AI “advance.”

For Listeners Who Haven’t Heard the Episode

• The episode is a fast but wide-ranging tour of US/media political neuroses.
• Don’t expect sanitized news: The show’s “deconstruction” means they unpack, poke, and parody, aiming not to report the news, but to reveal its mechanisms, flaws, and emotional manipulations.
• Highlights include deep dives into media hype (about both Iran and AI), sharp critique of both left and right politics, nostalgia for a less-polarized America, and a celebration of No Agenda’s quirky global community.

Memorable Moment (“Error Bars,” [113:25]):
Sam Altman (OpenAI): "Huge error bars. I could be totally wrong, but maybe that [AGI] could happen by like late 2028."

Episode closes with Mimi’s pimple patch tip, robust donor thanks, and the winning ISO: “My balls are killing me.”

For more info or to support the show: noagendashow.com