No Dunks – West Over/Under Predictions | 2025-26 NBA Season Preview

Host: Jay Skeets (with Tass Melis, Trey Kirby, JD)
Date: October 8, 2025
Theme:
The No Dunks crew return to preview and predict 2025-26 NBA Western Conference win totals, breaking down each division team-by-team and debating whether each team will go over or under their projected win numbers. The crew analyze rosters, key offseason moves, potential breakout performances, and lingering question marks, with plenty of classic No Dunks banter and bold predictions.

Episode Overview

• Purpose:
  The hosts provide an in-depth, team-by-team over/under analysis for every Western Conference team for the 2025-26 NBA season. They dig into player movement, coaching changes, health, chemistry, and statistical trends—and conclude with their three “locks” on Vegas win totals.

• Tone:
  Casual, fun, highly knowledgeable, with lots of playful ribbing, digressions, and memorable quotes.

(00:36–03:00) Intro & Show Context

• Skeets returns to the “Classic Factory” studio and celebrates obtaining US permanent residency.
• Reminder: This is No Dunks’ 20th FULL NBA season of daily coverage.
• Last year’s West: 7 teams won between 52–48 games—“tighter than two coats of paint” ([01:53]).
• Today’s focus: The Western Conference, beginning with the Northwest Division.

NORTHWEST DIVISION

Denver Nuggets (54.5 wins)

Additions: Cam Johnson, Jonas Valanciunas, Bruce Brown, Tim Hardaway Jr.
Departures: Michael Porter Jr., Dario Saric

• Trey: Under
  • "This seems to be probably the best bench that Nikola Jokic has ever had... The problem for me is that number is really high. 55 is a lot of wins" ([03:33]).
  • Nuggets could grab a top seed but probably prioritize health.
• Tass: Over
  • "They're freaking stacked... Jokic is just going to be hungry to get it done" ([04:46]).
  • Cam Johnson adds defense and ball handling; Valanciunas solid backup.
• Skeets: Under
  • Sees 52–53 wins, partially due to experimentation and deep bench rotations ([07:17]).
• Key Debate: Is Valanciunas overhyped? Can the Nuggets still be elite if Jokic rests more?
• Memorable Moment: Jokic's increased vocal, demanding leadership post-coaching change ([08:57]).
• Consensus: Split (2 Unders, 1 Over); everybody still thinks Denver’s excellent.

Minnesota Timberwolves (49.5 wins)

Notables: Returned all six double-digit scorers; Julius Randle’s resurgence.

• Tass: Over
  • "I can't bet against Anthony Edwards in year six... I don't see (them) winning fewer than 50 games" ([10:20]).
• Trey: Over, but hesitant
  • “Preseason number five MVP candidate” for Edwards ([12:30]).
  • Worries: Sustainability, replacing N. Alexander-Walker, expectations for new contributors.
• Skeets: Over (barely)
  • Excited to see Anthony Edwards’ rumored post-game (“going MJ Kobe style”) ([14:16]).
• Consensus: Over; Wolves’ continuity and potential MVP leap for Edwards drive optimism.

Oklahoma City Thunder (62.5 wins)

Return: 95% of 2024–25 minutes; extended SGA, JDub, Holmgren.

• Trey: Under
  • “They can lose five more games and still hit the over. That’s pretty ridiculous... I'm actually going to take the under here. I think they win about 60" ([15:34]).
• Tass: Over
  • “They’re just a focused bunch... It’s a big drop off, but I think they do it" ([16:32]).
• Skeets: Under
  • Cites parallels with other title teams that struggled to maintain “killer intensity” after titles ([17:30]).
• Key Insight: This is one of the youngest championship cores ever; will hunger and defense stay elite post-title?
• Stat Drop: Most double-digit wins and highest point differential in NBA history last season ([18:53]).
• Consensus: Split but leaning Under; agreed: Thunder will still dominate at ~60 wins.

Portland Trail Blazers (34.5 wins)

Additions: Jrue Holiday, Damian Lillard (not playing), Blake Wesley
Departures: Deandre Ayton, Anfernee Simons, Jabari Walker

• Tass: Under
  • "Their defense is going to be so good… Are they going to score enough?" ([20:14]).
• Trey: Over
  • Compares their grit/identity to recent Raptors; likes defensive synergy, thinks they squeeze out 35+ wins ([21:27]).
• Skeets: Over (barely)
  • “Breakout” end to last season; shades Raptors defensively ([21:57]).
• Notable Quote: “He thinks he is for sure” (on who’s the number one scorer, likely Shaden Sharpe) ([21:17]).
• Consensus: Slight Over, but little faith in real playoff potential; defense is the calling card.

Utah Jazz (18.5 wins)

Additions: “All the slow guys”—Slow Mo, Kevin Love, George Niang, Nurkic, Ace Bailey
Departures: Clarkson, Collins, Sexton

• Trey: Under
  • “One team always is under 20 wins… and I definitely think it could be the Jazz” ([24:25]).
  • Calls out lack of young core progress: “Are any of their young guys any good at all?” ([25:58]).
• Tass: Over
  • Historical note: Last four teams projected sub-19 wins all finished over ([26:33]).
• Skeets: Over
  • Stat: Only two back-to-backs all last year; expects similar struggle but 19+ wins ([29:44]).
• Memorable Moment: Who would win a baseline sprint among the slow vets? Kevin Love wins 39% of their poll ([30:41]).
• Consensus: Lean Over—line is so low that even a bad Jazz team could clear it.

PACIFIC DIVISION

Golden State Warriors (46.5 wins)

Additions: Jimmy Butler (mid-season 2025, now full year), Al Horford, D. Melton, Seth Curry
Departure: Kevon Looney

• Tass: Over
  • “Last dance… laser focused… 47 just doesn’t sound like a lot with Al Horford, the most selfless guy out there” ([36:50]).
• Trey: Under
  • Emphasizes age/fatigue and likely absences: “First team in history to start three guys 35 or older... I do love the fit with Horford,” but has depth and health concerns ([38:05]).
• Skeets: Under
  • “My concern as well. They’re very old and they’re so good, but it’s like they’re just old” ([40:25]).
• Key Insight: Butler’s impact, injury management, and lingering Kuming trade speculation.
• Consensus: Lean Under; health and age likely to drag down win total below expectations.

LA Clippers (47.5 wins)

Additions: Bradley Beal, John Collins, Brook Lopez, Chris Paul
Departure: Norman Powell, Amir Coffey, Drew Eubanks

• Trey: Over
  • Ty Lue’s creativity and team’s versatility highlighted: “They find ways to win… so much versatility” ([41:14]).
• Tass: Under (cautiously)
  • “Eleven guys that they’re playing are 33 or older, that’s freaking old. I don’t know what this ‘Aspiration’ cloud hanging over them will actually do” ([43:31]).
• Skeets: Under
  • Wonders if Harden can repeat last year’s performance at age 36: “Can he do that again?... James Harden was overlooked last year” ([45:34]).
• Memorable Moment: Running joke about “aspiration fraud” and Clippers’ tree planting scandal ([42:53–44:27]).
• Consensus: Mixed; roster is stacked but age, distractions, and chemistry questions prompt caution.

LA Lakers (49.5 wins)

Additions: Deandre Ayton, Jake LaRavia, Marcus Smart
Notable loss: Dorian Finney Smith

• Tass: Over
  • “I think this is going to be the best Luka leader that we’ve seen” ([49:20]).
  • Likes chemistry, defensive potential if healthy.
• Trey: Under
  • “Luka teams haven’t been that good in the regular season… I don’t think Marcus Smart is a starting caliber player at this point” ([49:39]).
  • Questions perimeter defense and depth.
• Skeets: Under
  • Defensive fit, LeBron’s (and Luka’s) age, and Ayton’s impact all worries ([52:52]).
• Memorable Moment: Mocking LeBron’s “second decision” Hennessy ad as “so, so lame” ([50:47]).
• Consensus: Under; skepticism about age, health, defensive upside despite star power.

Phoenix Suns (31.5 wins)

Major turnover: New coach (Jordan Ott), lots of additions and subtractions.

• Trey: Under
  • “They turned themselves into the Charlotte Hornets… I may be the least excited to watch this team in the NBA” ([56:10]).
• Tass: Under
  • “They have changed so much about the roster… But the questions are endless on this team” ([57:15]).
• Skeets: Over (barely)
  • Cites possible “edge” from misfit cast and Dylan Brooks, Booker as potential alpha ([58:24]).
• Notable Quotes: “Mortgage Matchup Center”—joking about the frequency of arena name changes ([55:39]).
• Consensus: Mostly Under; some allowance for scrappy overperformance.

Sacramento Kings (34.5 wins)

Core: Dennis Schroder, Zach LaVine, DeRozan, Sabonis, Keegan Murray, Malik Monk

• Tass: Over
  • “I have faith in a Dennis Schroder-led offense” ([61:32]).
• Trey: Over
  • “The Kings are a little overhated… they'll be good on offense… you can win a lot of games by outscoring the opponent” ([63:07]).
• Skeets: Over
  • “They should be still around a top 10 offense at least… It’s too low” ([63:46–64:21]).
• Consensus: All Over; offense and experience outweigh lack of depth.

SOUTHWEST DIVISION

Dallas Mavericks (41.5 wins)

Core: Anthony Davis, Cooper Flagg, D’Angelo Russell, Klay Thompson

• Trey: Over
  • “They’re only going to make two-pointers… but will Cooper Flag be an All-Star this year?” ([65:24]).
• Tass: Over
  • “Anthony Davis’s goggles are going to help him stay healthy” ([66:48]).
• Skeets: Over
  • “I found this one… the most perplexing team… but I’ll go over with you guys” ([68:59]).
• Consensus: Over; more faith in talent and defense than concern over lack of shooting or depth.

Houston Rockets (52.5 wins)

Added: Kevin Durant, Dorian Finney-Smith, Clint Capela
Lost: Dylan Brooks, Jalen Green, Cam Whitmore, Fred Van Vliet (injured)

• Tass: Under
  • “The Fred Van Vliet injury hurts… who’s handling the ball?” ([70:03]).
• Trey: Over (reluctantly)
  • “I think they can get to 53 wins… though the three point shooting is a huge, huge question mark” ([71:41]).
• Skeets: Under
  • "Not as linear as just keep adding wins… just going to be around the same" ([72:55]).
• Key Questions: Guard play without Van Vliet, outside shooting, defensive ceiling.
• Consensus: Mixed; tough, deep team but lacking in shooting and primary ball-handlers.

Memphis Grizzlies (39.5 wins)

Lost: Desmond Bane; Morant, Jaren Jackson, and others injured to start.

• Trey: Over
  • “This team is able to win games when Jaren Jackson Jr. plays… they'll be about a 500 team” ([75:15]).
• Tass: Over
  • “Feels super low… defensive readiness every single season” ([76:18]).
• Skeets: Under
  • Admits it’s his “dumbest pick, just to get an under in” ([77:28]).
• Consensus: Majority Over; belief in system and defense—but health clouds outlook.

New Orleans Pelicans (31.5 wins)

Skinny Zion! Major overhaul, lost McCollum, Brandon Boston Jr.

• Tass: Over
  • “Buying into the skinny Zion… if he’s playing, this team is way better than a 31.5 win team” ([78:56–80:18]).
• Trey: Under
  • “The team stinks around Zion” ([81:49]).
• Skeets: Over
  • Simple: “If Zion, Murph and Herb Jones play 60 games together… I think the Pelicans win half those games” ([81:50]).
• Consensus: Split; comes down to faith in Zion’s health.

San Antonio Spurs (44.5 wins)

Headliners: Victor Wembanyama (Year 3), De’Aaron Fox

• Trey: Under
  • “Top 10 defense with Wemby… but he can’t play the entire game… I don’t think there’s a ton of talent outside of Fox and Wemby” ([83:09]).
• Skeets: Under
  • “How many wins do the Spurs have to win for him [Wembanyama] to be an MVP finalist? Probably like around 47, 48” ([86:07]).
• Tass: Under
  • Cites injuries and lack of proven rotation (besides their star duo) ([85:58]).
• Memorable Moment: Wemby’s off-season, training with Matt Bonner, KG, and the Shaolin Monks ([86:47]).
• Consensus: Under; lots of excitement for Wemby’s progression, but not yet a top West team.

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On Denver’s Bench:
  “This seems to be probably the best bench that Nikola Jokic has ever had since being in Denver... The problem for me is that number is really high.” – Trey ([03:33])
• On Zion’s Season:
  “It wasn’t about losing weight in the off season. It was about learning how to fix his butt in the regular season.” – Tass ([78:56])
• Slowest Jazz Race Poll:
  “Two elders, a fat guy and a guy whose name is literally Slowmo.” – Stream Team poll ([30:36])
• On the Clippers’ Scandal:
  “They’re going to be hugging trees. If we get to go. It’s just weird that they won’t end the investigation until after February.” – Tass ([44:34])

(87:40–89:27) Hosts’ LOCKS (Three Each)

Tass's Locks (All Overs)

• Denver OVER 54.5
• New Orleans OVER 31.5
• Dallas OVER 41.5

Trey’s Locks (California Edition)

• Clippers OVER 47.5
• Kings OVER 34.5
• Warriors UNDER 46.5

Skeets’ Locks

• Pelicans OVER 31.5
• Wolves OVER 49.5
• Thunder UNDER 62.5

(91:47–93:47) Closing Remarks

• Listeners encouraged to comment with their locks (YouTube, Spotify, Apple reviews, or Twitter @NoDunksInc).
• Reminder: Monday’s Eastern Conference over/under show is already posted.
• Friday’s upcoming show: First-time All-Star draft (adjusted for new US-vs-World All-Star format).
• Lighthearted debate: “Do you prefer the Apple or Spotify comment section?”

Key Takeaways

• The West remains insanely competitive: Many teams project to win 50+.
• Injury, age, and roster continuity are the deciding factors for most over/under calls.
• Trend alert: Very low (Jazz) and very high (Thunder) lines split the crew, often on faith in youth or resilience.
• Memorable banter and stats abound, exemplifying why No Dunks remains the gold standard for informed (and fun) NBA talk.

TIMESTAMPS – HIGHLIGHTS

• 03:00 – Nuggets over/under debate
• 12:30 – Anthony Edwards’ MVP leap + Wolves optimism
• 16:32 – Thunder’s historic youth and post-title focus
• 21:57 – Blazers compared to Raptors’ defensive revival
• 25:58 – Jazz’s “race of the slow guys” and youth existential crisis
• 36:50 – Warriors “last dance” energy… or over-the-hill?
• 41:14 – Clippers’ versatility vs. aspirations scandal distraction
• 49:39 – Lakers’ perimeter defense and LeBron “second decision” ribbing
• 56:10 – Suns mocked as “Hornets West”: least exciting team
• 65:24 – Mavericks: “Cooper Flag All-Star?” and backcourt analysis
• 70:03 – Rockets’ point guard concerns without Van Vleet
• 75:15 – Grizzlies “win regardless” culture
• 78:56 – If Zion is healthy, “Pelicans will blow by 31.5 wins”
• 83:09 – Can Spurs’ supporting cast step up behind Wemby & Fox?
• 87:40 – Hosts’ LOCKS segment
• 91:47 – Community engagement & closing fun

For diehard basketball fans and casuals alike, this episode is essential, packed with straight-shooting analysis, stat drops, and plenty of jokes. If you want a comprehensive feel for the 2025–26 Western Conference picture—and some outlandish predictions—you’re in the right place.