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Mark Schindler
Today's.
Sabrina Merchant
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For the athletic I'm Zena Caida and this is the Athletic Women's Basketball Show. Welcome back to the Athletic Women's Basketball Show. I am your host Zena Kada. We are here to talk all things women's basketball, especially as March has finally arrived. Folks, the madness is here. So whether you're a die hard fan that eats, sleeps and breathes basketball or just someone that's taking a dip in. Don't worry, you're safe here. Make sure to subscribe to this podcast especially throughout the tournament time. It's going to be a lot of fun talking about your favorite teams, new teams you don't know about, all the Cinderella teams that might pop up. We're very, very excited. And also subscribe to the Athletic so you don't miss out on our year round in depth coverage of the game you love. I am joined today by athletic women's basketball writers Mark Schindler and Sabrina Merchant. What's up, y'all?
Mark Schindler
It's like 75 degrees in Cleveland, Ohio today, which is. That's how I have to start. I mean, like it's March 4th. That's 75. So yeah, I'm hoping stays that way.
Sabrina Merchant
Until the Final Four.
Mark Schindler
Mark, it's oh, we're getting snow in the. I can guarantee it. We always get an April snow, so be ready for it. Dang.
Zena Kada
Well, that is up. That's random because the fact that Vegas was freezing for the Super Bowl, Miami is apparently very cold right now and I'm in Northern California wearing North faces to the gym. So yes, it's a problem out here.
Sabrina Merchant
I slept with Heater on in LA last night.
Mark Schindler
That's.
Zena Kada
What are we doing? That's wild. And we're not even like cold blooded Californians or whatever it is.
Mark Schindler
I'm from North Carolina, though, so it's.
Zena Kada
Kind of like North Carolina. No, it's still we get the four seasons. All right, Sabrina, what's up in your world?
Sabrina Merchant
I think I just need better insulation, honestly.
Zena Kada
That's fair. That's fair. All right, well, let's go through our scout today and that's what we're going to be covering. And really we're about to have a conversation because obviously if you listen to a few shows ago, I introduced Mark Schindler, who came onto our team to do some bracketology work for us, which is not very common in this space. People breaking down the brackets going into particularly for women's basketball going into March Madness, understanding why teams are positioned in the way that they are in the bracket, what can get them higher positionings, especially going into the conference tournaments that's happening this week and this weekend going into next week. So it is very enlightening to be able to have your perspective, Mark, on our team and be able to walk through some of this stuff. And obviously, Sabrina, covering these teams through the season, you've been able to see them in the highs and lows, being able to see the Growth of these teams that helped essentially put them in these positions in their brackets. So since you started, Mark, you've had the bracket watch columns on the Athletic, as well as the bubble watch columns on the Athletic, which are both supported by e Trade shout out to our partner, helping us bring that information to you all. And we went through a bubble watch to understand some of the teams that are right on the cusp of being able to get into the tournament or, you know, position themselves a little bit higher into the tournament. But then there's bracket one watch, which is a little bit different than bubble watch in terms of actually looking at the bracket and physically looking at, like, where teams are placed and how you would place them. So I'd love to get your perspective on, like, the way you would describe bracket watch and what that process is like for you.
Mark Schindler
Yeah, so bracket watch is a. It's a blast, essentially. Like, I talked with some people who do work with the NCAA and around the selection committee to get a better understanding insight on how do you guys actually do this? Like, what. What all goes into that? And essentially it's made me, you know, I haven't used Google sheets since college when I was in physics lab, and now I'm using, like, more Google sheets and formulas than I did when I was in physics lab. So. But no, honestly, a lot of it is like, trying to. To piece together how, like, obviously you're only doing it as individual, so it's not quite the same as like, having the actual selection process with a group. But like, for reference, like, you start off, you list, like, the top 36 teams. Like, if you had to put these 36 teams have to make the tournament, regardless of if they're automatic qualifiers. You do that, and then you have your list of all of the teams that are automatic qualifiers. Then essentially the middle of all that, where obviously there's going to be some automatic qualifiers that are in the. That large teams. But, like, kind of like we talked about on the last episode I was on, that middle is the. Is the bubble. Like, I think a lot of people think the bubble is all the way at the bottom, but really it's like so much of it is about, like, seeding out everything and, and like the. The whole idea is ranking it like 1 through 68. Like, it's the 1 through 68 best resumes out of all the teams that you have going into the tournament. And so figuring out how to. How to go about that. And I. I mean, like we were talking about before we got on here, like, starting to see, like, okay, well, maybe I don't see things quite the same as the committee, and I need to. To get a little bit more on. In line with what they're thinking. So it's been a lot of. Definitely a lot of learning on the fly, for sure. But yeah, I don't know if that fully answers, but that's. That's been kind of the starting point.
Zena Kada
Yeah. No, it's interesting that you're so. You're working with some people and getting outside perspective to help inform your own. And that's something. I mean, to this day, I kind of look at the selection committee as, like, this ominous beings that, like, sit at a round table looking down upon the fields of basketball teams, and I have no idea who they are. I just, like, literally imagine, like, these Greek gods, like, just all just, like, stroking beards or, like, you know, there's like. I don't know, I'm just thinking, like, different people just sitting there watching and looking and looking around and being like, I like this team and this and that. And I know there's way more to it than that. And for that reason, Sabrina, I want to ask. I literally just got the, like, visual of Hercules gods in a room, like, making these decisions. I know it's deeper than that. Sabrina, for you covering ncaa, the association for so long and having seen the creation of these brackets and, you know, obviously seeing the brackets play out, what's been your experience with bracketology? How much do you know? Do you ever go? Have you ever gone through the process that Mark is going through right now?
Sabrina Merchant
I was imagining more of, like, the Hunger Games where they're all, like, you know, manipulating things in the room. That was the visual that was popping into my head as opposed to Hercules and, like, Mount Olympus, but for another time. No. God bless Mark, because I have never tried to do this bracketology exercise. Men's or women's side. It just. I kind of like to just wake up on selection Sunday, like, it's Christmas morning, and something has been delivered to me and I get to play with it. Obviously, I'm an AP poll voter, so I spend a lot of time thinking about, you know, top 25. But that's just an entirely different exercise than what's happening on the bracket side of things. Because what I do is a lot more of the moment. I think, you know, how teams are playing at a certain week. You know, I do consider their entire body of work, but, like, I'm not considering, you know, quad one wins or, like, what their net is or, yada, yada yada. And, like, you know, if a team had a really bad loss, I've pretty much kind of flushed it away by the time, you know, three weeks later. And the committee has to consider, like, a lot more big picture stuff than I do as a voter. So, you know, my experience with the bracket is, again, I see it when it comes out, and I make my decisions based on where teams are seated. But no, it's been, like, really interesting even just to follow the top 16 reveal because it's kind of similar to, like, where I place my top 16, top 25 teams. But, like, also the way that they order teams is. Is not the same way that I would. The more I, like, spend time, like, really focusing on each team's body of work, it is interesting to see, like, what I value versus what the committee values. And obviously, there are different priorities. And because mine are so different, like, I try to kind of, like, distance myself from the bracketology discussion because I don't want to give people an idea of, like, oh, like, I have UConn ranked 14th. That means they should definitely be a number four seed. Like, that's just not the way things work. It's not how it happens.
Zena Kada
Right. Okay. Okay. Well, I guess we're in the same boat then. I love that analogy of wake up on Christmas morning. I get something delivered to me and I get to just play around with it. It's exactly. That's exactly how I look at my brackets, especially when they're in digital version. I'm just like, point and drop and click, and there's a team in a brackets position. Now, Mark, this is not your life. You are much more involved. You're much more intricate in the way that you decide upon the brackets, obviously. And want to ask you, you know, with Sabrina mentioning that the priorities or the factors and what you consider to be important as you evaluate these teams may differ from the selection committee. And so I wanted to ask you, like, what are the things that you're looking at for each team as you make your decision for, let's say the top 16. The top 16 were just revealed by selection committee. You just mentioned yourself that you're like, we're not quite aligned. You don't necessarily have to say where the differences are. You'll see it in the article. But I'd love to hear, you know, what are some of the priorities that you have that influence what you're going to say, you know, within your articles, like, where you would put certain teams within the brackets?
Mark Schindler
Yeah, I think, like, having I mean, strength of schedule is like, number one, essentially. Like, there are. I mean, like, winning is the most important, but, okay, like, what do your wins look like? Who have you really beaten? Because there are some teams that have won, you know, north of 20 games, but they haven't really beat a team that, like, there are a couple teams that don't have ranked wins, but they've. They've beaten everyone else. It's like, how do you factor that in? And I think essentially the way that I've approached it, at least, is. And that it seems like the committee has. Is okay. Beating, you know, top 20 teams is paramount to being ranked high. Like, you have to win the most important games and do it convincingly, and that gives you points. And then, conversely, don't lose to the bad teams. And if you're going to lose, lose close and likely not on your own floor, because that. That has an impact as well. It's been interesting, too, because, like, I looked a lot at, like, the quads. Like, the committee doesn't use quads. But, like, I do think it's still really helpful in picking and piecing things apart and, like, recognizing, you know, where things are and how they stack up, especially with respect to schedule, because you can, like, read a number for strength to schedule, but when you really deduce it down and, like, what goes into it, I think that's more important than just, like, well, we had the 50th hardest schedule in the country outside of our conference. I'm like, okay, cool. What did you play? Somebody who was, like, really, really good, or was it mostly just, you know, a lot of teams that are third or fourth in their conference? So I think that's a big factor.
Zena Kada
Before I let you keep going, can you just quickly explain quads again for our audience?
Mark Schindler
Yeah, so quads are like, it's quad one, two, three, and four. So quad one are like, those are the really good wins or games, because it's not just wins. So, like, I believe it's lose to a net 50 team. There are a lot of stipulations with. With quads, which is why they're kind of confusing. But, like, essentially, like, a loss to a good team on an away court counts a lot more than, you know, losing to a mediocre team on your own court. Those change the numbers of what go into considering something a quad. So, like, for reference, like, I'm just pulling up Kansas right now, and they played 15 Quad One games this year, which is a lot. That's, you know, one of, I believe that's top 10 in the country and how many quad one games they played. Then you start looking, okay, they played five quad two games. So there's a big difference in that. And a lot of that's because they played a very strong schedule this year, but they went 5 and 10 in those games. And then it's all about, okay, well what went into those 10 losses? What was in those five wins? So yeah, I don't know if that.
Zena Kada
Fully answers, but yeah, yeah, no, that absolutely makes sense. And I'm wondering, you know, the losses on away courts versus big teams versus bad teams, I'm thinking about. And Sabrina, I'd love to get your opinion on this too. There are a few factors I'm thinking about that might hurt or help your chances in your positioning and bracketology. My first thought is about wins against big teams during preseason tournaments or like non conference tournaments, right? Those Thanksgiving tournaments or whatever it is. Like do those factor any less or more? Because one, you're playing on neutral ground usually, right? Or neutral court, it's not in season, et cetera. Like does that impact it? And then the other thing I'm thinking, thinking about is do losses at the end of the season and particularly thinking of like, you know, some teams that like, for example, like St. Joseph's you talked about in your article, Mark, having losses towards the end of the season, like, does that help or hurt a team if they were against good teams? So I'll start with you, Sabrina, on like those wins in non conference tournament type of environments.
Sabrina Merchant
So I thought something that the committee chair said during the top 16 reveal on Thursday was pretty interesting. She said your entire body of work is what gets you into the tournament and then how you're playing right now determines your seating. So like when we're talking about bubble teams or you know, who gets to host, like, I think for the bubble it matters like a lot more in terms of like getting in, you know, because like if we're talking top 16, like those, those teams are getting in, right? Like it's not really a matter of are they going to make the tournament or not, but you know, like if you're a Kansas or a Washington or a, you know, insert bubble team here. Like, and you played a really hard non conference schedule and you challenge yourself like those are going to be things that the committee looks back on, I think, like, oh, like, you know, we should prioritize this when we're picking teams, I don't know, like 58 to 68 in terms of entering the field and Obviously it's not 58 to 68. It's more like 40 to 48 when you're not considering the automatic qualifiers. But that's. Let's ignore that for a second. But then, you know, like, when you're deciding, like, should Notre dame be number 16 on our overall S curve or should Louisville. Well, Notre Dame won its last three or four games and Louisville lost a couple games at the end of the season. So that's something that they factor in terms of how a team looks at this very moment. And I think that's kind of where. I know you didn't ask about this, but I think it's kind of where, like, injuries factor in.
Zena Kada
That was going to be my next follow up to, you know. Yeah, that's interesting.
Sabrina Merchant
Like Indiana playing really well. If Mackenzie Holmes doesn't play during the Big Ten tournament, then like, do we consider their resume the same? Like, if she were healthy? And like, that's. It's kind of discussion where, like, it's. There's so many, like, different things to consider. And I wish that there was like, more consistency over what's prioritized in any given, you know, discussion. Like, I apologize for like, going long here, but like, so two weeks ago when we had the reveal, you know, like, Colorado was a one seed and Gonzaga was out of the field. And I'm talking about the top 16, not out of the field altogether, but like, not in the top 16. And they were saying, well, Gonzaga lost to Louisville, so their head to head puts them behind Louisville. But then Colorado was a 1 seed, having lost to UCLA and another team that was below them. And it's like, well, why doesn't that matter in terms of who gets to be at top? So I think the problem is, is that when you have like a varying number of opinions, there aren't just like a set number of like, this is what we are going to, you know, like a list, like, we're going to go down these bullets and like, if they adhere to each of the, you know, qualifications on this list and we'll put them in that order. I think it's so holistic, unfortunately, because every team has a different resume and everything. When you're judging different teams, there's just different qualifications you have to play. Like, I can't judge Gonzaga the same way I can judge a power conference team because for the last two months they haven't been playing teams that have like a strength of schedule that's that high. So. Yeah, I don't know if I actually answered your question. Xena. But the point is, is that I think you're always putting yourself in the best possible position by scheduling well during pre conference, like by playing in hard non conference tournaments, by going on the road. That's going to help you out down the road even if you don't necessarily win those games. And I think we're going to see like, you know, a team like Washington that I've really been enjoying but only really won 6 pack 12 games, even though a lot of them that they lost are really close. They didn't do themselves a lot of favors during the non conference. Right. Like they played Louisville, but that was it. And otherwise it's kind of a blah resume. And so they're going to have like an uphill battle in Vegas this week is what I'm trying to say. If they're trying to make the tournament.
Zena Kada
Yeah, no, you absolutely answered my question because it's hard to imagine a team for. I keep thinking back to, to tcu, right? A team that started so strong and then injuries happened and sure they're trying to bounce back, but like do they get evaluated based off of their earlier wins? But if you look at the wins that TCU had, they weren't that impressive, but they were just playing really well and then they had to play within their conference, which is a solid conference. I was just trying to evaluate like does losing games towards the end of the season hurt you? Especially if you had earlier season games that were really, really good and you won big. And as we're talking, I'm just, my mind is blown right now and I can only imagine that our listeners are going to be like, well how the hell do they put the, put this together? Like how do they make these decisions? Because it doesn't, it doesn't make perfect sense. But the aspect, it's holistic. It is the entire body of work. Whether you played at home, whether you played away, whether you played in a tournament, it's looking at who you played, how strong opponents, that's like, I feel like that's the through line. Is that how strong your opponents were and how you played against those opponents really matters? Mark, when you think about these bubble teams that are trying to find themselves onto the bracket and find some sort of like solid positioning going into the conference tournament, would you say that those bubble teams are more impacted by what they do in the conference tournament? More so than if a, let's say a top seated team that's already in the top 16, that's already going to be in the bracket does poorly in the tournament. Will that impact them?
Mark Schindler
Not to fence it, but I think it just depends on the team in the conference because like there is one locked in one seed. That's it. Like South Carolina is going to be a 1 seed no matter what.
Zena Kada
Sure.
Mark Schindler
Like I would be shocked if South Carolina, even if they lost in like, like their first game of the sec, I think they're going to be a one seed. But outside that, like I think with Texas losing Oklahoma, that knocked them down. Like I already didn't have them on the one line and I, I was a little bit iffy on them being there in general. But like I think that makes it a lot harder for them to get up there. And nobody else in the Big 12 has a shot at getting one seed right now with the Pac 12. Like I think UCLA and USC are both a real shot to make the one line. But Stanford is the closest other team we have to lock. But again it depends what happens for all three of them in the tournament. Like if something happens like last year where Washington State be this year, like let's say that Washington State decides to like go on a run and goes to the Pac12 championship game. Again it just depends what happens in other conferences because we could end, I don't think we should end up with two Big Ten teams with the one seed just based on what the total strength has been of the conference. But if like the top of the PAC 12 really struggles randomly, I do think it's possible. I think where we're going to see it be a lot more of an impactor is on the bubble though like you were mentioning because I honestly think like what, what's made this last week or so really difficult is a lot of the very strong mid major teams that I thought would be potential at larges like Green Bay who played a very hard non conference. They, they beat Washington State, played Maryland, they beat Creighton at Creighton. So like those are really good wins. But they just lost to UW Milwaukee who's like the 200th ranked team in the country. And I think when you have something like that happen, especially this late in the year because again I'm trying to fact that like when Sabrina and I were talking earlier, I think I was kind of surprised by how much they seem to weigh what's happening right now instead of the entire body of work. Because like for reference, like I think Oklahoma has really done a lot of great stuff to come together. They were 6 and 5 in non con. Like it's really hard to see how they have maybe shot up over some teams instead of others. Like, granted, I think off what they've done, I get it from that perspective. But then you see other teams where, okay, well they haven't been as strong of late and they're still ranked this high. So that's been a little bit interesting. But I think especially towards more of the margin stuff, how you're playing right now is really going to matter because a lot of the teams that are trending towards being first four teams in like, I think right now the sec in Big 10 is my entire first four, so. And like most of the tens seeds are sec and Big 10 because of what the middle of both those conferences have been like. So again because like, like you mentioned St. Joe's earlier. Like St. Joe's look like a team that had a really good shot to be in at large, but now they've stumbled. I think they've lost two of their last four and that just makes it really difficult for them to get in as well. When you talk about some of the.
Zena Kada
Late season stuff, speaking of injuries before, do we imagine that there'll be a situation where what happened to, let's say like Florida State in the College Football Playoff where they lose their quarterback and essentially that impacts their ability to rank highly in the college football playoffs? Like do we imagine that if a top ranked team loses a significant reason as to why they were ranked all season right before the tournament or in the conference tournament, does that impact their ability to be seated high?
Mark Schindler
I mean, I think it's definitely a possibility just because I mean it happened in the football playoff and I think they obviously it's different. Like they're not going to use the exact same criteria. But I also would say abruptly, like I don't think it should factor in, like if your team has this resume and you did this this year, I think you've earned your spot. But I can't say that that's what the committee would think too.
Sabrina Merchant
I think part of it is teams are like deliberately, they obfuscate like what the length of the injury timeline is because they don't want to give the committee, you know, a reason to ruin their seating. But also like, I think, I think Mark's right. Like I think about Notre Dame last year, Olivia Miles gets her final game of the ACC regular season and they still got a three seed. You know, like they were still a hosting team. You, you can look at that team and like without Olivia Miles, you know, without Dara Mabry, I'm not sure that they were playing at the level of a three seed at the moment. Like, obviously they got to the Sweet 16, they won their home games, they did what they were supposed to do. But, like, if they had played the whole season, like, with that roster, I'm not sure they would have earned a three seed. And their entire body of work, you know, with Miles, with Mabry got them to that point. So I think he's right that, like, in general, you know, you're not going to see big deductions based on one player being injured. Now, part of that is, like, Notre Dame just, like, would not specify when Miles was coming back. And obviously they were full of it because she did not play this entire season. So, like, they knew pretty early that she was not coming back for the tournament. But, like, you know, we saw Kenzie holmes sit out second half of yesterday's game or like the last 15 minutes of yesterday's game. We're recording this on Monday. Elizabeth Keatley obviously only played like 20 plus minutes against Virginia. I have to believe that if one of them has an injury that's announced that's like, significantly going to impact their availability, you just can't give them the same seating because that's their very best player. That's the foundation of everything they're doing on the court. Yeah, maybe you're going to reward their entire body of work, but, like, it's kind of unfair if you're like an eight seed and you get to go up against, you know, number one, Virginia Tech without Liz Kitley versus, like, another eight seed in a different region.
Mark Schindler
So it's murky. And I think part of the problem is, like, it's very. I mean, like, we've talked about the entire time, like, it feels like the reasoning changes within, like, the way that I've looked at things, I feel like a lot of it is within a seed line. So, like, if there is are like extraneous circumstances within a seed line, I think that can really make a difference in. In where you end up being seated. So, like, for reference, like, with Stanford, I think one of the things, like, when you talk about injuries, I think that's impacted Stanford. I don't want to say positively because injuries suck, but like, so both of two of their biggest losses to Arizona and Gonzaga, who both are solid teams. Gonzaga is very good, but, like, Cam barely played. She only played the, like, the first quarter against Gonzaga, and then she didn't play at all in the Arizona game. So I think to me it's more like the teams that win benefit But I think it's a little bit. You. You just take that with a grain of salt within a seed line or so when you're looking at those losses. Because I think. I mean, Cam's arguably been national player of the year and has a real case for it. Like, I don't think she'll end up winning, but point being, like, she's one of the five best players in the country, so, like, it matters completely. Exactly like, what Sabrina is saying.
Zena Kada
Okay, now I want to kind of close this out. If you are not top 16. Let's put those to the side, whoever those people are. If you are not top 16 in the country, and obviously, you know, you're trying to get a high seating or you're just trying to be well positioned. Can you guys think of examples in covering women's basketball? And it could even be on the men's side, too. But in. In March Madness, in the tournament where the higher you rank really didn't matter, like, the seating wasn't that important, has there ever been, like, a case that you're, like, it actually didn't matter as much that outside of the top 16, where this team ended up?
Sabrina Merchant
Well, I do think sometimes, like, it's kind of nice when you're a smaller school and you just get to be regionally close to where you are. Like, I think about in the 2022 tournament, Belmont happened to be in Tennessee's pod, and so, like, them being a. I think a 12 seed, like, worked out just fine because you get to play pretty close to where your fans are anyway. And they ended up beating Oregon in the first round. Did not beat Tennessee, but that's fine. You know, like, it's hard to beat the Lady Vols in their home court, but, like, I think the region matters a lot more. And, like, in that same tournament, you know, Creighton ends up in Iowa's podcast, and Creighton is, like, geographically close. I think, like, Nebraska's pretty close to Iowa. Right. So I don't want to betray my, like, lack of Midwest geography knowledge, but, you know, being able to just have your fans travel, I think is so important, as opposed to, like, whether you're a 10 or an 11. Like, just the modicum of home court advantage is a bigger deal to me than whether you're, like, a 13 or a 12.
Zena Kada
You know, that's a good point. That's a good point. What about you, Mark?
Mark Schindler
I think going in, like, kind of a similar thing off of that, it's almost like, obviously it's not better to be a 12 seed instead of like an 8 or 9. But like, I think if your team ends up being like an 11 or 12 seed, it can be better for you than being in the eight or nine to quote, to make a run. Like, I think in terms of like playing a team that is similar to you in talent might be better to be an eight or nine seed. But like, I just think like we've talked about this entire time like teams that are trending down, like, okay, I want, want every good thing in the world to happen to Kansas State because they were so good when everything was clicking. But I just think like, okay, what if this Kansas State team that has really struggled to find their footing since Ioka's come back and they play a 12 seed like Drake or Middle Tennessee, who both those teams have been, they have good wins outside of the conference. They've been really hot all year. They haven't lost games in conference. And if they went out their conference tournament coming into that, like, that is a really hard matchup for a five seed, like, because again, like, so much gets made of like it being a mid major or not. But like, I like mentioning Creighton again. Creighton was really good last year and they played a Mississippi State team that got hot like just before the conference tournament came in and ended up smacking them in the first round. And I think like, there can be real deficits to sometimes being in granted a higher seed, but sort of the outside looking in a little bit.
Zena Kada
That makes sense. Sense. I love the word you use. This is so murky. But it's just interesting because, you know, there's so much that if you're just the fan, you really don't think so much into the seating. And you know, maybe unless it's like your team and you're a fan of a particular team and you're like, how the heck did they not get a higher positioning over this? But there's, you know, you just gave great examples as to where it's like, it might be better that you're actually seated lower because we can actually go support you and cheer you on. Or it might be better that you're, you know, ranked a little bit lower because you're going to probably end up going against somebody that might have ended the season on a low note, but started it on a high note and the body of work allowed them to be higher seated and you're actually better matched up as a lower seed with that higher seed in that case. So there's just so many different, like Circumstances, obviously. It really is the. The quintessential essential. It depends. But very exciting that this week, I think Horizon League starts this week, their conference tournament, and then all the, like, they're all starting up this week and next week. Conference tournaments heating up. I saw a couple of tweets of people in the PAC12 packing up to go to Vegas. Like, it's around the corner, folks. Before I let you go today, Mark and Sabrina, I want to ask, like, as these conference tournaments are heating up, before we even get into March, true March Madness of the NCAA tournament, are there any particular conference tournaments you are like going to be glued on just from the excitement of the potential of the tournaments.
Sabrina Merchant
Well, I'll go first because I'm sure Mark has deeper cuts than I do. I'm going to be in Vegas at the Pac12 tournament, so I am very excited for that one. And then just because I literally have no idea what is happening any given day in the acc. That's like my second screen experience. Especially, you know, don't know what's going on with Liz. Notre Dame's been on a heater. Louisville, what's sort of been happening there, like Syracuse, you get deja fair going. Like, they could win the tournament. Nobody really wants to play Duke or North Carolina just because those games get so ugly. All due respect to the way they play, it's just they get really ugly in the tournament.
Mark Schindler
Last year was one of the, like, muckiest games I've ever seen.
Sabrina Merchant
I think it was 44 to 40 game an ACC tournament yet. Yeah. So that's. That's what I'll have my eye on. Just like big picture wise, I guess.
Mark Schindler
Yeah.
Zena Kada
What about you, Mark?
Mark Schindler
Yeah, I mean, obviously shout out Duke. I think Duke is like, that's the team that I just. I would not want anything with playing them at all in the tournament. Like, they're.
Zena Kada
Shout out Carol.
Mark Schindler
They're so much better than their record. Like, I know you. You are what your record is, but every loss has been close and they just are not fun to play against. And they're very talented. I think it's gonna be the A10 tournament for me just because, like, I was really fun. Actually. I was talking to GMU's coach Vanessa Blair Lewis yesterday, and it's really cool because, like, there's just a lot of upheaval from what the history of the A10 was like. Fordham traditionally was like one of the powers in the A10. They're in a rebuild. Same thing with UMass. Like, there's just like a lot more so. Like GMU's traditionally never been this good before. Like, this is their best season in like 30 years. They've been tremendous. VCU is having a career season. Richmond has been very good. And I think, like, even if they don't end up winning the conference, I think they have a shot to be like an at large bid. But the way that things have gone down the stretch, especially with St. Joe's I think it makes it a lot harder for it to be a two big conference where like a month ago, the a10 looked like they were shoeing for a two bid. So that makes the tournament just wildly important because both GMU and VCU most definitely need to win the conference tournament to get in, which is wild to say about like 25 win teams. But yeah, it's going to be pretty nuts. So I'm excited for it.
Zena Kada
Okay. Sabrina, you weren't lying. Our boy Mark does have the deeper cuts. I love it. I absolutely love it. Well, this has been fascinating. I am not going to lie to you. Have I walked away ready to create my own bracket? No. But do I have it? Do I have a date deeper appreciation and a bit more understanding of what goes into it? Absolutely. And I really hope that everyone listening also does too. So, Mark, next bracketology coming out. When?
Mark Schindler
Today.
Zena Kada
Today. Check out his bracketologies and you be the judge of if you agree with what he decided on his seating. And then they can see the NCAA selection committee, their top 16 or their rap bracketology where.
Sabrina Merchant
So the top 16. You could probably just like go to the Athletic. We have it printed out, you know, on one of the stories from last week. But there's not going to be another reveal until selection Sunday. So this is what we're working with.
Zena Kada
Perfect. Okay, so there's going to be a lot of anticipation up until selection Sunday. That makes sense. All right, cool, cool, cool. Well, we appreciate you guys. Thank you, Mark. Thank you, Sabrina, for your insight here. And I will continue to keep asking you questions because I still have a lot as this comes out. But the work you're doing is much needed. All righty, folks. Well, for today, set your screens where we at. The Athletic tell you where to set your screen. It's going to be super simple. There are a lot of conference tournament games coming up. Again, like I said, Starting March 5th is the earliest. And that is the Horizon League is going to be coming up, but there's going to be the A10. Every single conference is going to be having theirs, but a 10 is going to start theirs March 6th going up to the 10th. Pack 12, they'll be having their starting March 6th to the 10th. Big east will be having theirs starting March 8th through the 11th. Big 12, we'll be having theirs March 7th through the 12th. Yeah, there's just a ton of conference tournaments. I haven't mentioned all of them. I just want to give you some of the ones that are coming up this week. So Big Ten is going to be March 6th through 10th and then the AC SEC tournament will be March 6th through 10th as well. So these tournaments are coming up and that is what you should set your screens to this weekend. Wherever you can get these games. It will be a lot of fun. Expect a lot more tenacity, grit, just brutality, I would even say in these games than anything you've seen. It's gonna be a fun but I mean, rough and tumble type of weekend for these teams as they try to win their conference tournaments and and some of them try to get themselves an automatic bid to the large NCAA tournament. Alrighty folks. Well, that is all for today. We appreciate you tuning in. Again, hit that subscribe button on our show. Leave us comments if you have any topics that you'd like for us to cover or questions for our writers. I am sure a lot of you may have more questions, especially after this show. But for now, for Sabrina, for Mark, I'm Zena Kaeda thanking you for your ear and encouraging you to keep listening, keep learning and keep loving the game. Because that's the only way we're going to keep growing it. All right, until next time.
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Summary of Podcast Episode: "Breaking Down Bracketology"
No Offseason: The Athletic Women's Basketball Show
Release Date: March 5, 2024
Hosts: Zena Keita, Chantel Jennings, Sabreena Merchant, and Ben Pickman
Guest: Mark Schindler and Sabrina Merchant
The episode opens with host Zena Kada welcoming listeners to the show, highlighting the excitement surrounding March Madness in women's basketball. Zena introduces the topic of bracketology—the art and science of predicting the NCAA tournament brackets—and underscores its complexity and significance in the realm of women's basketball.
Mark Schindler delves into the distinction between Bracket Watch and Bubble Watch. He explains that Bracket Watch involves a detailed analysis of the top 36 teams that are likely to make the tournament, considering their overall performance and strength of schedule. In contrast, Bubble Watch focuses on teams on the cusp of qualifying, assessing what they need to secure their spot.
“Bracket watch is a blast… trying to piece together how, like, obviously you're only doing it as individuals, so it's not quite the same as like, having the actual selection process with a group.”
— Mark Schindler [08:29]
Mark emphasizes the importance of strength of schedule as the primary factor in seeding teams. He discusses how the committee evaluates the quality of wins and the context of losses, noting that defeating top-tier teams can significantly enhance a team's standing.
“Strength of schedule is like, number one, essentially. Like, there are… I mean, like, winning is the most important, but, like, what do your wins look like? Who have you really beaten?”
— Mark Schindler [14:04]
Quads Explained: Mark provides a detailed explanation of Quads—a metric used to evaluate the quality of a team's performance based on the caliber of their opponents.
“Quads are like, it's quad one, two, three, and four. So quad one are like, those are the really good wins or games… a loss to a good team on an away court counts a lot more.”
— Mark Schindler [15:25]
Sabrina Merchant shares her experience and challenges with bracketology, highlighting the differences between her approach and that of the selection committee. She emphasizes the dynamic nature of team performances and the holistic evaluation required for seeding.
“The problem is, is that when you have like a varying number of opinions, there aren't just like a set number of like, this is what we are going to, you know, like a list, like, we're going to go down these bullets and like, if they adhere to each of the, you know, qualifications on this list and we'll put them in that order.”
— Sabrina Merchant [17:27]
The hosts discuss how late-season performances and injuries can significantly impact a team's seeding. Mark notes that while past performance is crucial, current form and unforeseen circumstances play pivotal roles.
“When you have something like that happen, especially this late in the year because again I'm trying to factor… how you’re playing right now… really matters.”
— Mark Schindler [22:12]
Sabrina adds that injuries can sometimes lead teams to conceal the extent, complicating the committee’s evaluation process.
“If one of them has an injury that's announced, that's like, significantly going to impact their availability, you just can't give them the same seating because that's their very best player.”
— Sabrina Merchant [27:17]
The conversation shifts to the benefits of regional seeding. Sabrina points out that for smaller schools, being seeded regionally can be advantageous as it allows for greater fan support during the tournament.
“It's kind of nice when you're a smaller school and you just get to be regionally close to where you are. Like, I think about in the 2022 tournament, Belmont happened to be in Tennessee's pod.”
— Sabrina Merchant [29:03]
Mark concurs, suggesting that lower seeds might have strategic advantages in making tournament runs, especially if matched against teams of similar talent.
“I think if your team ends up being like an 11 or 12 seed, it can be better for you than being in the eight or nine to quote, to make a run.”
— Mark Schindler [30:02]
As the episode nears its conclusion, the hosts express excitement for the upcoming conference tournaments, particularly the Pac-12 and A10 tournaments. Mark highlights the dynamic shifts within conferences, noting how unexpected performances can influence tournament seeding.
“There's just a lot more so. Like GMU's traditionally never been this good before. Like, this is their best season in like 30 years.”
— Mark Schindler [33:34]
Zena Kada wraps up the episode by appreciating the insights shared by Mark and Sabrina. She encourages listeners to engage with the upcoming conference tournaments and emphasizes the importance of understanding bracketology in appreciating March Madness fully.
“I really hope that everyone listening also does too. So, Mark, next bracketology coming out. When?”
— Zena Kada [35:27]
Mark Schindler on Bracket Watch:
“It's a blast… trying to piece together how, like, obviously you're only doing it as individuals.”
[08:29]
Sabrina Merchant on Committee Evaluation:
“I think it's kind of where injuries factor in… it's kind of a holistic, unfortunately.”
[17:27]
Mark Schindler on Strength of Schedule:
“Strength of schedule is like, number one, essentially.”
[14:04]
Sabrina Merchant on Regional Seeding:
“It's kind of nice when you're a smaller school and you just get to be regionally close to where you are.”
[29:03]
This episode provides a comprehensive dive into the intricacies of bracketology in women's basketball, highlighting the multifaceted considerations that influence tournament seeding. With expert insights from Mark Schindler and Sabrina Merchant, listeners gain a deeper appreciation of the strategic evaluations that shape March Madness. The discussion underscores the balance between quantitative metrics and qualitative assessments, illustrating the complexity behind predicting tournament outcomes.