No Offseason: The Athletic Women's Basketball Show

Episode: Countdown to March Madness: Who Will Claim the Top Seed?
Date: January 23, 2026
Hosts: Zena Keita, Sabrina Merchant
Guest: Eden Lassie

Episode Overview

This episode centers around the upcoming NCAA women’s basketball tournament, the race for top tournament seeds, and the implications of the 2026 WNBA schedule release amid ongoing CBA negotiations. The conversation also takes a deep dive into current bracketology trends with resident expert Eden Lassie, highlighting which teams are poised to host, who could be surprise entrants, and what’s driving committee decisions this year. The hosts also discuss the WNBA’s schedule quirks, notable rivalry matchups, expansion teams, and creative schedule release videos.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. WNBA Schedule Release Amid CBA Uncertainty

[01:49-06:30]

• League’s Rationale for Early Schedule Release

  • Sabrina Merchant explains the WNBA’s decision to publish its 2026 schedule before a new CBA is ratified:

    “The WNBA is just trying to plan ahead. I think there’s nothing sinister about it. It’s just, hey, we’re assuming we’re going to have a season eventually, and when it does, we would just like to be better prepared as opposed to... having to rush after a CBA.” (02:35)

  • Normal scheduling routines are complicated by venue availability and the anticipation of expansion.

• Schedule Structure and FIBA World Cup Interruption

  • The season extends earlier in May and later into September to accommodate a planned pause for the FIBA World Cup (Sept 4–13).
  • Merchant:

    “There’s a two week break... for the FIBA World Cup... WNBA expects a lot of its players to be competing... So you’ll notice teams are playing through the end of August then there’s a gap.” (04:41)

  • WNBA expansion teams Toronto Tempo and Portland Fire debut with marquee, standalone opening weekend games.

• Growth and Nostalgia

  • Unique aspects include commemorating the league’s 30th season (not strictly 30th anniversary), notably by pitting original teams—Sparks vs. Liberty—on the historic date.
  • Zena:

    “That is like... I got goosebumps reading that. That’s so dope.” (10:26)

2. Notable Schedule Matchups & Creative Releases

[06:30-21:01]

• Opening Weekend Star Power

  • “Finally”, says Zena, Las Vegas Aces and Phoenix Mercury meet early; Paige Bueckers and Caitlin Clark square off in season’s first days.
  • Merchant:

    “It’s nice to start off the season with that because... everybody’s watching those Team USA video, saw a lot of Caitlin, saw a lot of Paige. Caitlin didn’t play for a while..." (08:36)

• Commissioner’s Cup Evolution

  • Merchant:

    “There have been five different Commissioners Cup champions in five years, so… you have as good a chance as anybody.” (12:48)

  • Desire from hosts to see semifinals and neutral sites for the final, mimicking NBA Cup improvements.

• Schedule Release Video Highlights

  • Favorite: Phoenix Mercury’s faux “business intern” office spoof (16:07-16:35).
    • Zena:

      “He was so charming the whole way through.” (16:07)

  • Most Niche: Portland’s Portlandia/nostalgia-themed video.
  • General critique: more teams could have integrated history and unique brand flavor; some fell flat including LA’s Orly Nails and Minnesota’s A24 “Euphoria” tie-in.
  • Zena:

    "I feel like some teams kind of mailed it in. I’m not gonna lie." (20:16)

3. Bracketology Deep-Dive with Eden Lassie

[23:39-48:53]

The No-Doubt Top Seed… Plus the Contenders

• Eden:

  “If selection Sunday were today… it would still be UConn right now for that number one [seed].” (24:06)

• Discussion of committee theory vs. personal opinions—and how much the NET ranking dictates everything.

NET rankings, Quad Wins, and Conference Strength

• Merchant explains:

  “The NCAA has a formula... strength of schedule, margin of victory, etc. ...UCLA has nine quad one wins… UConn only has five… They’re not going to get many more because they play in the Big East.” (26:48)

SEC Power: Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Texas

• Vanderbilt remains undefeated and is a “number one, number two” seed (30:27), depending on SEC performance.
• Eden:

  “If they finish as the top team in the SEC… no way to argue they shouldn’t get a one seed.” (30:36)

Who’s Hosting?

• As of recording, projected hosts (top 16 seeds):
  • 1-seeds: UConn, UCLA, South Carolina, Texas
  • 2-seeds: Vanderbilt, Louisville, TCU, LSU
  • 3-seeds: Iowa, Michigan, Kentucky, Michigan State
  • 4-seeds: Maryland, Baylor, Ohio State, Duke (surprising given their rocky start) (31:47-32:18)
• On Duke:

  “They’ve turned things around… The way they scheduled at the beginning of the season was a little terrifying…” (33:51)

Mid-Majors, Sleepers & Tournament Surprises

• Princeton praised:

  “They are a really, really good team. I think they’re not valued as highly as they should be..." (35:31)

• A-10 (Rhode Island, George Mason, Richmond, Davidson) notably strong; expect at least two bids.
• Bracketology is “wild”—NET is, in Eden's formula, weighted five times higher than other criteria (43:40).

4. Special Feature: NYU’s D3 Dynasty

[44:49-48:53]

• Eden Lassie shares insights from her profile of NYU women’s basketball, which has won 76 straight games, spanning two and a half years and two Division III titles.
  • Eden:

    “If you watch them, they really don’t look like a Division 3 team.” (44:49)

  • NYU’s blend of academic/athletic balance, artist-athletes, and strong coaching staff puts them in rare company—even compared to some D1 powerhouses.
  • Quote from article:

    “…playing them is like being a sugar cube in hot steaming tea… you could survive for a little bit. But at some point, the heat overwhelms you.” (46:40, Zena reading Eden’s writing)

5. What to Watch This Weekend: Key Games

[50:13-52:08]

• South Carolina vs. Vanderbilt | Sunday, 12pm PT / 3pm ET
  • Key for SEC standings and seeding.
• Richmond vs. George Mason (A10 Top 4 teams)
  • Both vying for at-large recognition.
• Ohio State vs. Iowa
  • Impact on Big Ten race and second place; pressures UCLA and championship implications.
• Merchant:

  “Still undefeated in the Big Ten. So you beat Ohio State and all of a sudden you’re putting a lot of pressure on UCLA.” (52:00)

Notable Quotes

• “The WNBA is just trying to plan ahead… There’s nothing sinister about it.” – Sabrina Merchant, [02:35]
• “This year’s gonna be a little ox. Little ox, a little Oxford.” – Zena Keda, on the awkward season break, [06:30]
• “My favorite part is when he’s working the front desk and like, bringing people in and he says, like, ‘Hey, Scott,’ and you can clearly see the guy’s name tag says… He’s just calling him the wrong [name].” – Sabrina Merchant, recounting Phoenix Mercury’s schedule video, [16:24]
• “NET rankings are king... that's always going to be the biggest factor.” – Eden Lassie, [25:20]
• “You don’t get punished as much for good losses.” – Sabrina Merchant, on Duke’s schedule, [33:59]
• “Playing them is like being a sugar cube in hot steaming tea… you survive for a little bit. But at some point, the heat overwhelms you.” – Eden Lassie (via Zena), on NYU’s defensive dominance, [46:40]
• “Bracketology is wild. Right? Like, it makes sense that you wouldn’t understand it.” – Eden Lassie, [43:38]

Timestamps Index

• 01:49 — March Madness & WNBA schedule discussion begins
• 02:35 — WNBA’s rationale for schedule timing
• 04:41 — FIBA World Cup break and schedule impacts
• 06:30 — Discussion on expansion teams, nostalgia, 30th season
• 10:39 — Sparks vs. Liberty, historical commemoration details
• 14:26 — Commissioner’s Cup suggested reforms
• 15:47–19:30 — Schedule release video critiques and favorites
• 23:41 — Eden Lassie joins: Bracketology methodology and top seed debate
• 26:48 — Breakdown of NET, quad wins, and committee logic
• 30:27–32:18 — Vanderbilt, hosting team rundown, and surprises
• 44:49–48:53 — NYU women’s basketball feature
• 50:13–52:08 — Key games to watch this weekend

Tone & Style Notes

• Conversation is lively, insider-y, funny, and data-driven.
• Hosts balance lighthearted banter (pop culture, millennial nostalgia, friendly ribbing) with granular analysis of basketball metrics, history, and tournament politics.
• Accessible to fans both casual and hard-core; educational breakdowns of technical terms and committee logic.

Summary Takeaway

This episode is a deep, entertaining primer on women’s college basketball as March Madness approaches, combining sharp WNBA commentary with expert bracket analysis. Aspiring hoop heads will appreciate the balance of behind-the-scenes insight, stats fluency, and community vibes. For bracket-watchers, the NET reigns supreme—so keep an eye on recent results and quad-one upsets—while the WNBA’s expanding future and creative marketing set the stage for a history-rich, competitive 2026.