← No Offseason: The Athletic Women's Basketball Show
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- [00:00]
Zena Kaita
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- [02:02]
Chantelle Jennings
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- [03:22]
Sabrina Merchant
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- [04:57]
E
For the Athletic I'm Zena Keda and this is the Athletic Women's Basketball Show. Welcome to the Athletic Women's Basketball show where we are here to talk all things women's hoops before we dive in, I gotta do my job. Make sure you know if you're a die hard fan that eats, sleeps and breathes the game or You're a new fan looking to know more and get acquainted with the sport of women's basketball. You're in the right space, you're in a safe place. And you definitely want to subscribe to this podcast wherever you get them so that you can keep up with everything that's going on in this world. Also, subscribe to the Athletic. A lot of great written content up there as well. That'll keep you posted. Today I am joined by our writer, Sabrina Merchant and Chantelle Jennings because we got some questions to ask. You know, last week, I mean, really since the top of this year, there's been some crazy games. But I think last week there were a lot of really good college games, especially considering the amount of ranked teams that took an L. Some of them were some upsets. You saw at the time. Number 10 Oklahoma lost the Mississippi State. 77, 81. You saw, I would go down to Illinois and Indiana. West Virginia lost the Oklahoma State. But then there were some ranked opponents battling each other. That made for some really good games. Don't know if you guys saw that North Carolina battle between Duke and North Carolina. North Carolina bested. Sorry, Sabrina. North Carolina.
- [06:42]
F
The only thing I object to here is that you're calling that a good game when it ends 40 at the end of regulation. It is not a good game. Okay, listen, the deep ball, it was.
- [06:51]
E
It was, it was still, it was still defense a little bit. I would say there was some defense there.
- [06:56]
F
That's not what I would say.
- [06:57]
E
Okay, okay. Fair, fair, fair. I'll say a better game was Cal versus NC State. That was a fun one. Cal beating NC State 78, 71. There were some non ranked opponents that were really fun. That Baylor, Arizona overtime game was a lot of fun. But there were some games that allowed you to say, hmm, are these teams capable of making it to the top? I'm thinking about that. South Carolina, excuse me, USC. Southern California winning over Maryland. 79, 74. That was a good game. Made you look at Maryland like, hmm, are you capable of getting into that top four category? Uh, there was also Ohio State that beat Michigan. Ranked opponents, still not the top of the ranked opponents, but still good game. 84, 77. Um, Texas, they took an L, then gave an L. They lost to South Carolina on Sunday. But before that, you know, they were able to beat Alabama and they were able to, I mean, beat Alabama 84, 40. That score was crazy. Now we're going to be asking some questions today because it's at the point of the season where teams have settled in they know their rotations, they know their strengths. They know who to go to, what sets to run to highlight those strengths. They know their weaknesses and how to potentially mask them. This is the time that we're starting to see conference play and teams settle into who they are. Still a lot of time before the tournament, but there's enough evidence to plausibly ask, are teams contenders? So today we're going to look at some teams that are outside of the top four. It's fair to say that South Carolina, ucla, Southern California and Notre Dame are pretty locked in right now. They keep playing with each other between in the top four positions, but let's look at some teams that are outside the top four and see what would it take for them to get to the Final Four in the tournament. Time. All right. We're going to start out with a team I didn't mention yet, and that was lsu, who had a thrilling game against Tennessee last week, winning that game 89, 87. They're one of the only three teams that remain undefeated. They're 18 and oh now, and they're a fun team. They have a litany of offensive weapons both inside and out. They're surprisingly small. You saw that against Tennessee. Playing small right now, but just so much firepower coming out of that team. Sabrina, I'm gonna start with you. What would it take for LSU that is now number five in the AP poll and in your poll, to get to that top four Final Four position?
- [09:53]
F
Yeah, LSU forever the hardest team for me to judge because they just win a lot of games and don't impress me at all in the process. Sure. No disrespect to the Tigers. That was the same thing that happened back in 2023 when they eventually won the national title. They, you know, this is the way they schedule. This is the way Kim Mulkey builds their teams, and they just get better and better and know what they know how to do by the time March rolls around. I think what I would want to see for lsu, for them to make a Final Four run, is just defensively, they're not like the elite elite they were, you know, when Angel Reese and Ladasia Williams were manning the paint back in 2023. They favor a lot of these smaller lineups like you're mentioning. Like against Tennessee, it was basically all Anissa Morrow at the five and then some combination of, like, Mikayla Williams and Flage at the forward spots. And you've got Kaylin, Gilbert, Chande, Wilson in the backcourt, but I'm just not sure yet. If like Anissa Morrow is enough, if you need to defend against Reagan Beers or Aoka Lee or somebody who you can just pound the ball into over and over again in the middle, like, that's not what Tennessee does. They're obviously very perimeter oriented team offensively. They take a ton of threes. That's something that you can handle if you're six one and Issa Morrow. But what I want to see is what does LSU do when there is a dominant post presence on the other side? Are they equipped to handle that? Like, is Kim Mulkey going to trust Samaya Smith? Is, you know, Jersey Wolfenbarger up to the task? I don't know. So it's just things I want to learn, you know, like we. There are going to be a lot of options during the SEC schedule for them to play against teams with dominant front courts. So that's what I want to know. I want to know if they can hold up against a center who is an offensive force and are they going to have to shift the way they work or is LSU's offense just going to be enough to overcome that? Individually, I don't know yet, but it's. That's a question that I still need to get answered.
- [11:46]
G
I'm really surprised to hear that LSU is five for you this week because I feel like they're a team that you and I consistently talk about or text about when we're filing our AP vote where it's like, usually Sabrina and I will be like, okay, who's like, the bottom is. Tends to be harder. Like 22 through 25. You're like, okay, yeah, it's always a challenge and there's always. And it's not like there aren't good teams there. It's like there's a lot of teams that can fill into those spots. Then you're kind of like splitting hairs. But I feel like LSU is a team that you and I have both consistently ranked lower than our AP voting colleagues. I still have them significantly lower than you. I think I have them at 9 this week, maybe because I've sort of stuck to that. I don't like. Yes, they beat Tennessee by two. If Kaylin Gilbert doesn't hit that circus shot at the end. That was super impressive. And I don't know if it was SportsCenter top 10, but it should have been like just such a clutch moment for her. But, you know, if she doesn't hit that, they go to overtime. I don't know. Like Oklahoma beat Tennessee by one. Are we talking about Oklahoma and LSU in the same breath right now? Not necessarily. And so I think these results are a little bit like, okay, it's there, but then I like, watch this team and I'm like, I just. I'm still not sold. And I get that they compensate for their lack of threes. That was my big question against Tennessee, right? Like, how does this team that averages 14 threes a game go up against a team that shoots like 5 million a game? Well, you just out rebound them like crazy. And if you take more twos and you hit more twos, okay, you're in business. And Kim Bulky can make that work for them and they play the numbers in that way. But, like, I'm just still not sold on them. Like, I think there's not enough consistency outside of maybe. Obviously, Anissa is insanely impressive. I think she's now 12 rebounds, consistent.
- [13:43]
F
Player, I think in division.
- [13:46]
G
I mean, she's 12 rebounds away from being the eighth player in Division 1 history to have 2,500 points and 1500 rebounds. Like, that's, that's a half a basketball for her against Vanderbilt. So, like, let's just chalk that up right now. She'll be the eighth player to do that. But, like, I think, you know, Sabrina and I go back and forth like she might be the best player on that team. Depends on the night. Michaela's good, but like Kalin is, you know, I think their guard play to me still is like a little bit inconsistent. And you, like we've talked about over and over again, you have to have really solid guard play. And it's like you watch this LSU team and then you watch like South Carolina, Texas, and you're like, oh, my God, how are these two teams going to match up? Like, yeah, and you just think about, like you said, if they run into a center like Lauren, Betts, Ayoka, Lee, Regan, Beers, like, if they run into that sort of a mismatch problem, can they out rebound enough? Can they sort of shift their game plan enough that they compensate for what they lack? And the verdict is still out for me.
- [14:49]
E
Yeah, the point about the center and the size inside is big because, you know, watching that Tennessee game, it's not only that a Morrow has to guard someone huge, it's also the shift down. Like, if she's stuck behind someone and they lob it over her head, who's shifting down to then step in front of a post player that has an easy 2. There's no size on that backside of the help. And that's going to be really difficult. One thing I do love about LSU is that they are still a midi team. They still appreciate the mid range game and I feel like that's a lost art right now in all of basketball. And so I do appreciate that aspect of their offense being there. But yeah, even Rebecca Lobo in their, in, in, in thinking about, you know, they're in talking about their game and talking about this team mentioned she hasn't seen enough. Everyone has said this nationally that they haven't seen enough of LSU because of who they schedule in the, you know, in non conference games. And the SEC is going to be going to give you a glimpse but it really isn't until closer to March that you'll be able to see, okay, what can, what is LSU really made of? What can they really do to get to that final? All right, well let's keep it going Cause there was another team that I did mention in that, you know, list of games that happened particularly last week that may have, you know, been on people's radar is like, whoa, whoa, whoa, why are we not talking about this team more? And that is Maryland. Now Maryland did take an L to USC and they were 14 and oh, before that game, they're now 15 and one after, you know, having a bounce back against Wisconsin. But yeah, entering Wednesday's loss against you know, USC, they were rolling particularly Cheyenne Sellers, Kayleen Smichel, Bri McDaniels, like you know, on the offensive side, but they're just, and they're also good defensive team. But one thing that was interesting about this team is that there were so many transfers and new faces and such. I think this past game against USC and then going into Wisconsin, you're seeing their smaller lineup find some holes and it started to expose that maybe they're not as deep as they seemed in those non conference games. Chantelle, I'm going to start with you with Maryland. What would it take for Maryland other than cheyenne sellers dropping 42 points, which she's capable of, but other than that, we have a lot of hope in Cheyenne Sellers on this podcast. Clearly. But what would it take for Maryland to squeeze their way into the Final Four?
- [17:26]
G
See, this is what I think Maryland has going for it that I try to think about the other teams that we decided we're going to talk about today, but I don't think any of the other teams fall into this category. Correct me if I'm wrong, but right now I look at the Big Ten as having sort of the top. Like you have that ucla, USC group right at the top, like, in Maryland gets to see those teams you have. You know, just. I think of the Big Ten right now as the best conference. And I think some SEC fans are going to come at me for that, but I think, okay, come at me for that. But, like, I think they have the opportunity and maybe they're. I think, like, maybe one through six, they're the deepest. I like their six more than I like anyone else's six. Maybe that's what I'm trying to say by this. And so I think by playing the Big Ten schedule, they sort of get. It's like the opposite of LSU's non conference. Like, they learn how to play consistently and well, like, three nights apart, two nights apart. Like, you have to show up every night because even, like, we're seeing even the teams that are not. I put Minnesota in my top 25 this week. Like, Minnesota is not a team that you think of as, like, oh, the cream of the crop in the Big Ten. But there are those teams like the Illinois, the Michigan's, the Minnesotas of the world, where it's like, if you don't show up against them, like, they'll challenge you. Fringe top 25 teams or top 25 teams, depending on who you're asking. So I think what Maryland has going for it is that, like, yes, they're having some of these holes exposed, but they actually get to sort of, like, battle test that going forward through the season. And I think the Big Ten is particularly a conference that, like, you know, you can't sleep on teams. And so I think that the Terrapins there, you know, have that going for them. But I was in the same boat as you. Like, I'm always high on Maryland at the beginning of the season. Like, Maryland is consistently one of those teams that, like, if you look at my AP poll, like, I vote them higher than, like, anyone else every year, I'm like, man, this is Brenda's year. Like, they're running it back happening for them this year. And then it's like, as the season goes on, I'm like, I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. And I'll, like, text, you know, friends. I have that cover the team. And I'm like, I think this is Marilyn's year. They're like, I've heard it before. Like, someone else in the Big Ten catches them or like, whatever. But it's like, without fail. I was like, this year has, like, tons of transfers, lots of change there. But I was just like, I don't Know, I like this core. I like that you have better in leadership. I like that you have some consistency in the core. With Bri and Shai. I like the talent they brought in. It made sense to me. And I like, at this point, I'm like, I feel. I feel better about Maryland than I do about lsu.
- [20:16]
E
That's interesting. I feel similarly. I also feel like this same vibe with Duke, interestingly enough, like the same vibe that you have with Maryland. I do. I feel that way with Duke, particularly these past two seasons. But the point about the night in night out is important to make because some of these teams, it's going to be a test of endurance. It's gonna be a matter of can you make it through your conference and be healthy enough, be consistent enough to play with the same level of intensity when March comes. So I think that Maryland's gonna be one of those, those teams that has to see, can we make it through these constant punches every night? Because every team is gonna come in, you know, with the intent to. To play well and to beat them. Sabrina, what are your thoughts on Maryland and how can they make it to the Final Four?
- [21:10]
F
I just think it's perfectly fitting that I finally took a stand for Maryland and accepted they were a good team. And then they lost at home on national TV right after this, like, graphic that the athletic puts out about, like me.
- [21:21]
E
It was a good loss. It was a good loss. I agree.
- [21:24]
G
Sure.
- [21:24]
F
Good loss. Also one that made me very concerned about their decision making in fourth quarters because this is not the only time that Maryland has blown a big lead down the stretch of games. They managed to hold on against Iowa and Michigan State, but they could not hold on against usc. And now it's three times in the second halves of games where we've seen them just what happens in the fourth quarter. Like, what are we doing ball handling wise? Like, who's running our offense if Kayleen Smichel is not making shots? That's a lot of Bri McDaniel, Cheyenne sellers, the 42 point thing. I know, like, keep bringing it up, but, like, I don't see her having that same killer instinct to take over a game. Like she is naturally more of a distributor. And that's great. Like, she is the point guard for this offense, like nominally speaking. But their go to player is essentially Kayleen Smichel. And I look at all of the teams that are going to be contending for a final Four. And with all due respect to Kayleen Spichel, she's not as good as their Go to scorers on the other teams. And I want Cheyenne Sellers to be more assertive. I don't trust Saylor Puffenbryer taking threes or Bri McDaniel does a lot down the stretch. She is very confident in her abilities and I'm not sure that is always for the best, but I, I want the best player taking charge more often. And like Cheyenne Sellers, I feel like makes most more of her plays defensively, like, you know, excellent foul drawer, like gets in the lanes, you know, because she's like the six two guard and is very disruptive. But I want her to be more assertive offensively and I just haven't seen that yet down the stretch of these games. So that is one thing that concerns me about Maryland. You know, schedule wise, like, I think everybody is going to be tested at this point, right? Like you go into every road environment and conference, like they absolute, absolutely hate you, right? Like whether it's a great team, like you know, USC or UCLA or you go into Rutgers, like they're gonna give you the business too, like those fans. So I think, you know, that's what's so fun about this time of year is that every game really, like I, I'm like trying to pick three games to watch on my power rankings and I'm like, there's like 13 I could put on this list that I'm gonna have locked and loaded the minute they come on. But you know, there's so many things that we can learn from every single game. And even like I, you know, you look at Maryland against Wisconsin in that bounce back game and I thought that was a really necessary thing for them too because that was a game where they came on stronger in the second half, which hasn't necessarily been the case for Maryland in a lot of these wins. So if Cheyenne Sellers can just like be more Cheyenne Sellers, like, I just want to see more from her because I really do believe it's like it's the best players who affect the outcome the most. Like every so often you're going to have like a Jasmine Carson score 17 points off the bench. But that's not usually what decides games. It's usually the stars who make their impacts. And I think Maryland needs a little bit more of that star power for me to totally believe in them as a team that could get to Tampa.
- [24:13]
E
I agree with that and I think if we're thinking about making a final four, if I'm summarizing what Maryland needs to do, get your star player to be more of a star Especially in the second half, in the, in the. In general, uh, do you guys have any issues with their defense? I think their defense is pretty solid. But do you think it could make Final Four?
- [24:33]
F
I mean, I kind of think like, they have like an LSU situation where like they have bigs, but they're not like dominant bigs, you know, like Christina Dalcy I think is great on the glass, but she's not who I'd pick as my number one choice to be like a one on one defender for, you know, a strong post player. I think the key with their defense is that they're just active throughout. So, like, they don't want the ball to get inside. Right? Like, it's more of a deterrent rather than we're gonna stand you up when you get the ball inside. I definitely think, like, the offense is strong, stronger part of their game. But yeah, I think their defense is good enough to get where they want to, but they do have to be very careful in specific matchups. Like, I mean, you think about the end of that USC game and like Kiki gets the ball with one foot in the paint and curtains, right? Like, we're done. You're not doing anything to stop her. So I think their guards just have to be really good defensively for them to get to the level that they want to. And that's definitely possible. Like, we've seen what sellers and McDaniel and DBSU and everybody, like, can accomplish in their roles defensively. But like, most teams, they have limitations. Like, no, I don't think there are perfect teams. It's very clear what Maryland's limitations are at this point.
- [25:36]
G
Yeah, I think for me it's, you know, I think back to the lsu, UCLA game a lot. I feel like there's probably no game we reference as much on this podcast as that if maybe the 2023 national title game, which we've already referenced multiple times. So whenever you talk about LSU or Iowa, like, that comes up as well. But like, I think about, you know, there's not a year, There aren't many years of women's college basketball where you think like, there are multiple, like 6, 5 posts that are dominant that can totally change the game. And I think this is a year where it's a little bit different, right? Like, we're looking at all of these games and it's like, but can they handle a Lauren Bets? Can they handle an Ayoka Lee? Like, do they have those matchup things? And I think back to that game and it's like the way you counteract that is with really, really active perimeter defenders who don't allow the ball to get inside. Right. Like, whether that's LSU or. I think back to a conversation I had with a coach about Kansas State earlier this year who was telling me, you know, the thing that is deceptive about the Kansas State guards is that like, they're really range, like they have better wingspans than you'd expect and like they have really active arms. And so they don't allow you to get the ball inside as much. And so I think about that and that's where it's like, yeah, I guess if, you know, Maryland doesn't have sort of that 65 presence on the inside that you say, like, oh, one on one, they're great against whomever, but it's like, yeah, you look at them like Cheyenne Sellers just has to be that much better against the opposing lead ball handler. Like Bri McDaniel just has to be that much better, you know, and she doesn't have the length of shy or anything like that or the height of shy, but like, they just have to be more active on the perimeter and like, not allow the ball to get inside.
- [27:18]
E
Yeah, let's talk about one of those teams that does have a 65 post because I think that that is going to be a big factor of. Of getting to the Final Four is allowing, if you have a star center, allowing that girl to cook, whoever she is. Of course UCLA is doing their thing with Lauren Betts, but there's another big girl, I would say, out. Out west, I guess. I don't know geographically. Is Kansas State out west?
- [27:45]
G
No, it's in the heartland.
- [27:47]
E
Midwest. Midwest, yeah. Okay. All right, I got you.
- [27:51]
G
All right.
- [27:51]
E
We're talking about Kansas State, folks.
- [27:52]
G
All right.
- [27:53]
E
They're 17 and one this season. They've been like, teetering. I know going into their last game against B. BIU they were leading the. The country in field goal percentage and in assists. And Aoka Lee just being able to see over everyone definitely is like, helps that number go up. But overall, and then also her ability to finish inside also helps that number go up. But yeah, these two teams, we talked about lsu, we talked about Maryland. It's a matter of how can you defend a player like in Aoka Lee, but there's some other people around her. Does Kansas State have enough to get into the Final Four? Sabrina, thoughts?
- [28:35]
F
So this is like kind of the opposite of what Chantelle was saying with regards to Maryland, where I'm not sure how much I get to learn about Kansas State during the Big 12 schedule now that Oklahoma and Texas are no longer part of the conference. Like, they absolutely crushed Utah the other day, who I think is a good team, but that's about as good of a team as we're getting in the Big 12, other than TCU, Kansas State, TCU. That's, you know, circled, highlighted everything you want to do on your schedule because I think there's a lot to learn about those particular teams. But yeah, I just, I worry that the depth or lack thereof in this conference is going to make it harder for us to evaluate Kansas State as we proceed through January and February, which, again, no faults of Kansas State. It just kind of sucks that that's the situation.
- [29:19]
E
We're left in one second really quickly just for our listeners to understand what happened against you. The score was 7,147 and Utah is ranked. Okay, folks, this isn't a casual opponent. Utah is ranked and they beat them by 30. And this is in their conference. So just to like, put that into perspective or almost 30. Excuse me. That's the kind of, that's the kind of beating is. That's happening in the Big 12. Continue.
- [29:44]
F
Yeah, I don't know what happened with Utah's ability to just like make jump shots in that game. It's not usually a thing they struggle with that much. But, you know, thing to point out, Kansas State number one in the country in field goal percentage defense. So maybe that's what happened. Utah, you know, it's not just Aoka side. It's all of their guards do a really good job defensively. They're just. This is a team that's been together for a pretty long time, might be.
- [30:04]
G
Able to commiserate and I know we'll get to Texas, but yeah, he's like, you know, making shots, good perimeter defense, you know, from South Carolina. Like, this feels like Kansas State and Texas might have.
- [30:16]
E
Don't ruin it for the folks. Chantel, you're ruining things. We got to wait until. It's okay.
- [30:22]
G
It's okay.
- [30:23]
F
You look at their starting lineup. They've got. Serena Sandel has been there for a few years. Jalen Glenn's been there for a few years. Aoka Lee is in, I think her fifth year of eligibility at Kansas State. It's a lineup that knows how to play together. They just, they look so comfortable playing with one another. Like, they move the ball so well every possession. There's no sense of, like, panic even when the first action doesn't work. It's a really fun style of basketball. To watch. I. I think about them losing to Colorado in the tournament last year, and like, that kind of just like gives me a little pause about what happens when a team gets a little, like, aggressive defensively on them, like, if that's going to speed them up or, you know, just ruin their flow. But it hasn't happened yet so far in the Big 12 schedule. Like, it happened a little against Duke. You know, you think about their one loss of the season coming in Las Vegas to a team that presses a lot. So, you know, keep an eye on, like, West Virginia if they're able to give Kansas City difficulty. I think that's a little bit of a different situation because, I mean, again, who's going to guard aoka? But I think the one thing with me for Kansas State is they've been really careful monitoring Yoki's minutes over the course of the season. Like, she's had a checkered injury history during her college career. She's had to sit out multiple seasons. She's playing less than 20 minutes a game right now. And I think she is their most unguardable matchup. Right. Like, she's the one who forces a defense to dramatically change the way they're trying to play you, and she forces an offense to dramatically change the way they're trying to play because you just can't get into the pain as much because those arms are just everywhere. And I wonder if this is a ramp up to the point where, like, she can be playing 28 minutes in the postseason or if this is just what her season is going to look like because of her health situation. So to me, it's like, can we see her get gradually more comfortable on the court, Spend more time on the court? Like, does that dramatically change the way Kansas State is able to impact games if they get more of Lee on the court? Or is. Is this just the team that we have, like, and it's a very good team, but I think they reach another level if you get more time with Lee. And I. I'm just not sure at this point. Like, is this just what we're going to get with her, or are we saving, you know, all the good Ayoka Lee minutes for March, which. Which would be great, too.
- [32:35]
E
And that impacts rotations, that impacts a lot just being able to ramp her up as time goes on? And this is what we're talking about. Like, we're at the point of the season where teams are trying to get settled, know their rotations, they want to know who's coming in and out. They Want to know how they're highlighting the strengths of their players and if that is a factor that's going to be changing closer to the tournament. That could kind of disrupt a lot more than just having different minutes for Aoka Lee. Could be just. There could be a lot more ripple effect on the rest of the team positively and negatively. You know? You know, you don't know. Um, Chantel, looks like Sabrina's saying more yokely minutes is important for them to be able to squeeze into the Final Four. What are your thoughts on Kansas State overall?
- [33:18]
G
Yeah, even without yoki playing like 30ish minutes a game, I think that what they have is just such a balanced, efficient offense. They're like top of the table in or I guess they're number two, right, Number two nationally in assist rate. Like they share the ball, they get it to one another. They have players who are hitting shots. They have three players right now that are shooting 37% or better from range. And that doesn't include Serena Sundell who last year was a 40% three point shooter. Like if she gets her clip up just a little bit, you can surround Ayoko Lee who's this just like beast in the paint with four players that can knock down threes at like 37 to 48. I think is percent is Poindexter shooting like 48% at this point. And so I think their offensive balance is just like there's a lot to really, really like about this team. But I think it sort of like always comes back to Aoka's health where it's like this is always the shadow that follows this team. Like can she stay healthy the full season? Is she going to be healthy enough to play 28 minutes a game? Because it's again, it's like everything in my mind goes back to like if they match up against a UCLA and she has to battle inside against Lauren Betts, can she be in there as many minutes as Lauren Betts? Does it come out to who can play more minutes in that situation? You know, I think, I think Lauren Betts would come out on top simply because it's like if she can be on the floor longer, you know that's where it's going to go.
- [34:42]
E
Okay. I mean, Kansas State, I'll say this. When I played, I remember you could. There was a marked difference between teams that have been together for a while. It is true in that they just felt as if they could speak with eye communication. Like they could tell each other where they or knew where each other were going. To be out on the floor. There was just a sense of maturity and poise with those type of teams that were like led by their seniors, right. Like all their captains and their starters were all seniors or juniors. There is a level of maturity and that can go far in the NCAA tournament. That can be really important, especially in those, you know, end of, end of game situations where you need a shot or you need consistent shots. That is really important to be able to have that. And I think amongst the teams that we've talked about so far, Kansas State probably leads in the sense of veteranship and then also time spent together.
- [35:38]
G
I think they're in the interesting position though where it's like Sabrina touched on this, but like the Big 12 just is not a strong conference. Like they could go undefeated through conference play. They could win the conference tournament title. And I don't know, I don't think they get a number one seed like just simply because I don't think the committee will look at that strength of schedule and say, you know, you look at, you know, sort of out of conference, what they did, they lost to their one or I guess they played two power conference opponents coming into the year, coming into conference play. But it's like you went one and one against power conference opponents in the non conference and then you played a Big 12, a Big 12 schedule that like, frankly, how many tournament teams are going to get in from the Big 12, like so I do worry about that in terms of when we're talking about a team like Maryland, that it's like you've got to be on Tuesday or you know, every night that you play, like you have to show up. Like Kansas State has a little bit more of a margin for error in the Big 12.
- [36:36]
E
We cannot ignore that. The committee does evaluate those type of things. Strength of schedule is a big factor in determining your placing or placement. Excuse me, in the tournament rankings. All right, let's close this out with another team that we saw this past weekend in very, very different games or very different outcomes. If you would have watched Texas against South Carolina, Sabrina, you mentioned it about Utah, like forgetting how to make shots, that that summarizes Texas's offense. It was, it was so strange because it wasn't as if the shots weren't there. It wasn't as if they weren't getting open. It wasn't as if they weren't getting to the basket. They just couldn't finish. There was something so intimidating about the South Carolina defense or just the, the, the circumstance and the atmosphere in general that did not allow Texas to perform to the ability that, you know, I think the whole country knows that they're capable of. Especially cause the very last game they won 84, 40. So, you know, they're capable of putting the ball against a good Alabama.
- [37:49]
G
Against a rank.
- [37:50]
E
Against a good A ranked Alabama team. Exactly. So it was just very uncharacteristic. But this is a team that I absolutely believe to be capable of getting to the Final Four. Heck, I said they get there last year. They were in my Final Four for last year. Okay? And they've got the tools. They got a Madison Brooklyn. They've got a Rory Harmon. They've got people. They got my new fave, a number 11, which I was former number 11, Justice Carlton. Like, they've got a lot of pieces that I think could definitely get them in that Final Four position. What do you guys think? How do they get there? How do they squeeze one of those four out?
- [38:29]
G
Well, you didn't have to be a lip reader to know what Madison Booker was saying after some of those shots. I felt like ESPN did her no favors by, like, zooming in. No favors right after. And she's like, talking to Rory and I was like, yep, you don't need to be like, bad lip reading for this one.
- [38:45]
F
Like this family program.
- [38:48]
G
Yeah. Three of 19 on the day. I mean, it was just like she couldn't buy a bucket.
- [38:52]
E
Like, and they were on sale.
- [38:54]
G
And it was like you said, she was getting good shots, she was getting open. Like, she had, you know, she forced a few because she was getting frustrated, but it was like she had opportunities to sink shots. She usually sinks. And, like, credit to Bree hall and the rest of the South Carolina defense here for making life.
- [39:10]
E
Yes.
- [39:11]
G
So hard on everyone like this. The South Carolina defense showed up. Like, that group looked like, you know, like, you expect a group that's going to compete for the national title to show up, but. Right, man, Texas did not.
- [39:27]
F
Yeah, Texas is the weirdest team for me because statistically, models love them. Like, you look at her hoop stats, you look at CPV analytics, they entered that game with the best offense in the country statistically, which is no one would have ever watched that game against South Carolina and thought, yeah, this is the number one offense in the country. Like, this is what I'm watching in this particular matchup. And yet I watch them and I feel a little underwhelmed. And I think part of it is because they just don't take threes at all. Like, they rank 362 out of 362 in terms of the percentage of their offense they get.
- [40:07]
E
High total.
- [40:08]
G
Yeah, right. Doesn't matter what level you're at. That's like seventh grade basketball. Hard to win games that way.
- [40:16]
F
Maybe that's a little like, you know, unfair because there was a point in this game where South Carolina was up by 17 points and they'd only taken three threes. None of them had gone in. But I do think that the way you have to guard South Carolina with Tessa Johnson, with Tahina Pow Powell, at least the threat of them shooting kind of warps the defense in certain ways. Like you saw that even in their loss to LSU when both of them were on the court at the same time. Like even the Bruins. I'm sorry, not to lsu, to ucla. The Bruins had difficulty defending both of those shooters on the court at the same time. Which you never get that pressure that Texas puts on a defense in the way that others do. Just I can't get past the shooting. Like, I know South Carolina is an intimidate defense. This is what they do. They Ashlyn Watkins or not. This is a front court. This is a team that knows how to make things difficult for opposing offenses. Right. Like it starts with Raven Johnson at the point of attack. You've got Brie hall, who is one of the finest wing defenders in the country. You've got Chloe Kitts and Joyce Edwards and Sinai Fagan. What a great game for Saniya Fagan. Oh my gosh, to just own the paint.
- [41:13]
E
That high low game was Joyce. Yes.
- [41:15]
F
Own the paint in this particular matchup. I mean, there is no shame in losing to South Carolina. Like TCU went through it. They've bounced back completely. Well, Texas went through it. I'm sure they'll, you know, show up well in the rest of their SEC schedule, though. Credit to whoever made the SEC schedule. Texas has to play South Carolina again. They're the only teams that like play twice. But I look at Texas and like, maybe it's because I'm still thinking about the way they lost in the tournament last year, which admittedly is not fair because they didn't have Rory Harmon in that matchup against NC State. But it just, it looks so hard for them to score on offense. And again, I can't reconcile that with the fact that statistically they scored a really great rate. Maybe that's because they're patent their numbers against teams that are lesser. But I watch them in these big games and everything seems difficult. And like, if you're trying to make a comeback as Texas, how Are you supposed to do that when you're matching twos with twos? You know, and then they foul all the time? Like, this is one of the worst fouling teams in the country. And that means, like, you're going deeper into your bench. It means, like, you have to sit Madison Booker at times because she's picked up three fouls in the first half or, you know, whatever situation happens to be placed in. And there's just enough of these things that, like, make the game harder for themselves. And I realize it's a good defense. I realize Vic Schaefer has success as a head coach. And, like, this is a good veteran team. Like, you talk about guard play. Rory Harmon, like, one of the best point guards in the country. And she's. She's looking like she's getting more pep in her step, like, the further she gets removed from that ACL injury last year. But I don't know, I just. I feel like teams should be a little bit more of a flow when they're playing well. And I never get that sense with Texas. And unfortunately, I can't, like, put any, like, real numbers to it. It just. It just doesn't look right to me. And, like, that's. That's where I land with them.
- [43:04]
G
Here's what I will say about Texas that I think. And again, SEC schedule is going to challenge them every night. They'll have a chance to build off of this with every game. What I really like about them is I've come to enjoy Kyla Oldacre more and more. Every time I watch her with Texas, I was like, I don't know how I feel about this fit. She came from Miami. I was like, I don't know. I'm not 100% sold on this fit yet. Every time I watch her, and I texted Sabrina that, and Sabrina was like, I love her. And I was like, all right, I'm gonna, like, keep watching. Keep watching. I'm at that point now. I think she's a great fit. You know, comes off the bench for them, excellent six, six center, physical, wonderful. And then Justice Carlton, who you mentioned Xena and Jordan Lee, two freshmen that I think the more minutes they get through the season through SEC play, like, this was like, get thrown into the fire. Welcome to the sec. And here's South Carolina. Like, yeah, right up, right out the gates, like, beginning of the SEC schedule for you guys. Like, I think this is a team that through the season, we will see them more flow, more gel. Like, I agree there's something like. And this is A group that, that core has been together for quite a while. Like Madison Booker is an old sophomore, let's call her that, but like the rest of this group has really been together for a long time. And so I think as these top eight play together, even more like they're a group that by the end of the SEC schedule, I think will look a lot better than they look right now.
- [44:32]
E
Yeah, I'd agree with that. I'm looking at, you know, the box score against South Carolina and Sabrina, you mentioned this. I mean, their defense is good. You talk about getting South Carolina to turn the ball over 22 times. It's a matter though of capitalizing on those 22 turnovers and that's what was missing. I'm actually really impressed in that. Sabrina, I know you said you don't have numbers to back this up, but you've been consistent with this observation about Texas. I very vividly remember you talking earlier in the non conference about Texas's offense not seamlessly flowing the way you would expect it to with the talent that they have and having clips to go alongside it. So maybe you don't have the numbers, but you've definitely pulled clips. She's got receipts in which offenses she's got receipts. There are receipts there with Texas not flowing well. And the thing about it is, yes, in the tournament, people get to play you once. You might end up against, you know, one of your, your conference opponents. I think that's the rule, right? You can you in the first round, you can in the sweet 16. Okay? So I mean, someone will watch game tape on you, but they'll never go up against you. Which going up against someone and seeing someone's size, seeing someone like Madison Booker size in real life, seeing someone like Kyla Oldacre's size in real life, like that changes some. Seeing Rory Harmon's aggression on defense in the full court press feels different in real life.
- [46:04]
F
So.
- [46:04]
E
But if you watch enough film on Texas, you're looking at their offense and you're just like, get in the lanes and annoy them. Just get in the lanes and annoy them. Because they don't, they don't work well enough together in terms of like ball movement and particularly player movement to get open and make things smooth out there on offense.
- [46:24]
F
The thing that I do like about Texas is that the roster that Vic Schaefer has assembled in Austin, they really exert physical advantages over everybody. Like Rory Harmon, you mentioned seeing her aggressiveness up in person. Madison Booker is a big forward. Aaliyah Moore, big athletic Forward, you know, Taylor Jones, Kyla Oldacre, there's a lot of size in that front court. So most teams that they play up against, they are going to be more physical than them. They're going to be bigger, stronger and faster. And so what I want to see is how Texas is able to differentiate when they go up against a team that can match those physical advantages. When they go up against the South Carolina front court that is as big, as big and strong as them. When they go up against a Hannah Hidalgo that is as athletic and pesky at the point of attack as Rory Harmon is. So when those physical advantages are no longer present, what can you do to still exert your dominance on the court?
- [47:12]
G
But I think your point stands, Sabrina. Like to bring it back to Maryland, which we always do on this podcast, your best player needs to show up in those games and be the difference maker. When there are sort of when opposing teams can throw things at you that throw the team off, when there are things matchups or team wide that goes across. And like in this game I want to. Madison Booker is the best player on this team. But like to go 3 of 19 from the floor in this game, like she needed to be better. Like if correct if we would have. If you told me like Madison Booker is going to go 3 of 19 against South Carolina be like, yeah, they're gonna lose by 20. Like of course like Madison Booker has to play well against South Carolina for Texas to win. Like that's a non negotiable. And so I think that's where it comes back to like your best player has to show up in the best games. But I think this is going to be a moment for Madison Booker. Like she's still only a sophomore. She hasn't played in that many of these games. And so I think moving forward like this, you know, Vic is a great teacher. This becomes a learning moment for her.
- [48:13]
E
These are all. I mean this is what's so exciting about these games that we're getting to see. I mean how lucky are we as fans to be able to see some of these like top tier matchups this early in conference play. Especially now that you're thinking about like the how big some of these conferences are and that there's these matchups only get to happen one time a year again, Texas, South Carolina, two times. But still it's just, it is really a great thing for coaches to be able to have with. I love. Chantelle always says teach tape to be able to show their teams to say this is what this is the level of aggression. This is the level of physicality. This is the level of everything that you're going to need in order to be in the Final Four, like, period. There's no way around it. You cannot have nights off. You cannot have, you know, a lack of aggression, all the above. Like, those things are going to be absolutely necessary. All right, these are now teams I'm going to list off of. Like, you know, the teams that we talked about outside of the top four. Right now, LSU on the AP poll is right at number five. Okay. Maryland is still at eight. They're not moving. They've been pretty stuck there for a little bit. Texas is at number seven. They were at number five. They dropped down after that South Carolina loss. And then Kansas State is at now number 11. They were at number 12. They moved up. Um, so still just teetering on the outside of that Final Four. And it's just going to continue to be that all conference season long of teams trying to knock out ucla, South Carolina, Notre Dame and usc. But they're, they're looking pretty strong. They're definitely playing like they deserve to be in the top four. Any final thoughts, ladies, on what it takes for any team, even the ones that we didn't talk about, to break into the top four?
- [50:05]
F
I think it's going to require just some luck. You know, I, I think back to the bold predictions we made last week when I said that only one number one seed was going to make a Final Four this year. So clearly I don't expect all of the teams that we mentioned at the start of this podcast to even get to that point. So much of it is just matchup dependent, right? Like you look at Texas going from Alabama to South Carolina, right? Like a less physical team that relies more on three point shooting in Alabama and was without Sir Ashley Barker for that game. But then you go up against South Carolina, who just pounds the ball inside and really makes you defend the paint. So I think a lot of it is just like a tic tac toe thing, like rock, paper, scissors things like who matches up against who, right? Like, if you find a team that can't exploit your weaknesses, then you know you end up in better positioning than if you have to face South Carolina earlier in the draw, is what I'm trying to say. But I do think that a lot of this is just, just matchup dependent, right? Like you have so many teams with different kinds of skills, right? And I think, like, Maryland didn't do well with like the physicality of usc. I'm really interested to see how they match with the physicality of Texas when they play against each other later this month. Right. Like, how do those two things affect one another, especially when Texas can't shoot the ball the way that USC did in that particular matchup. So I think a lot of it is just like, we'll know more when we see what the draw looks like because I kind of stand by it. Like, there's no perfect teams, right? There are no teams where I can just look at and say, like, they are flawless in their execution and their approach. So if you can find a weakness and you can capitalize on it, then I do think that this is going to be a very matchup dependent tournament.
- [51:35]
G
I feel like you've hit a lot of the main points. But I'll just say the other like, obvious thing here, which is everyone has to stay healthy. Like almost every team that we've talked about, you know, this season, almost every. Any team you talk about any season, like, they have to stay healthy, whether it's, you know, Kansas State and Ayoka Lee, whether it's Texas and Rory Harmon, UConn and Paige Beckers, like the best players and key depth. Like it's not just the stars, obviously. Like the stars are the most important to stay healthy. But like when you get into the tournament and legs are tired, like you need your number four or five, six players to be healthy too. And we should know that Hannah Hidalgo missed the last game for Notre Dame for a slight ankle tweak. They said they kept her up for precautionary reasons, but had a. And a bit of a brace on her ankle during the game there. Like the best players need to stay healthy and that's going to be true through the regular season, but particularly in March.
- [52:28]
E
So now we have a little bit of a sense of what it would take for not only for these teams, but I like what you're saying. A little bit of luck is going to be necessary and a lot of bit of health. It's going to be very important. And when you think about the. Some of these, I mean, Big Ten, ugh. Like those are particularly the teams that I'm worried about, you know, making sure you stay healthy, making sure everyone stays in shape. And you know, it's going to be a tough conference to get through. But all, all the while, we'll be learning more about these teams as they match up with their particular conference opponents. And in these bigger games. Are there any games that you've got circled this week that you think our listeners should be tuned into.
- [53:12]
F
So I mark these on the power rankings every week. Just three that I'm interested in watching. Georgia Tech, Notre Dame on my mind this week, especially if Danny Carnegie's healthy. The Yellow Jackets lost their first two games this season. This week when she got hurt against Virginia Tech and then was unable to play against Louisville. Speaking of which, Louisville second in the acc. Jeff Waltz doing it again, but something to just keep an eye on as the ACC season progresses. But yeah, Georgia Tech, Notre Dame, definitely one that I have circled and you know, colorful pen here.
- [53:42]
E
Yeah, Louisville getting that 69, 60. That was actually good. I got. I got to see a couple quarters of that game. I've been liking them since the very first game of the season. They matched up against UCLA out in Paris. The defense has always been there is now it's a matter of just getting that offense to catch up. But they're. They're. They're chugging along. They're chugging along. What about you, Shantel?
- [54:02]
G
I'll give a little hometown shout out here. Minnesota, Maryland, Tuesday night. I think that one for me again, sort of how Maryland responds. You know, it's not just the game after, but two games after, I think matters too. But also Minnesota going on the road. First time they've been rigged in the AP Top 25 since 2019. It's a big opportunity for Don Plitz White's team to have a huge showing. They only have one loss on the season so far. There aren't a lot of teams that can say that. They also haven't played very many teams. But yeah, big opportunity for them in College Park.
- [54:32]
E
Okay, I love it. I love it. I actually had number 8 and number 8 Maryland and 24 Minnesota on my list, too. That's going to be on Tuesday night. I'm looking through and seeing if I see anything else that I don't know about you guys, but Thursday's matchup against South Carolina and Alabama. Alabama's been playing pretty well as of late. I mean, yeah, they had that. That really terrible loss against Texas, but overall they've had a pretty decent season and I haven't seen much of them this year. So I def. I definitely want to tune in to that one. But I appreciate you guys helping us break down what it might take for some of these teams to get into the Final Four. Guys, write out to us if there's other teams that you're like, I want my team to make it to the Final Four. Sabrina Chantel, break it down. What do they need? Let us know we definitely want to talk about teams you guys want to cover and give you guys a little bit more insight there, but got to close out this show. It's going to be so much fun this week, guys. Friday, yeah, a Little League called Unrivaled gets going, so definitely tune into that as well as all the NCAA action that's going on across the country. We appreciate you guys tuning in. As always, hit that subscribe button. Wherever you get your podcast, stay up to date with us. And on behalf of Sabrina, on behalf of Chantelle, I'm Zena Kaita thanking you for your ear and encouraging you to keep listening, keep watching, keep learning and keep loving the game because that's the only way we're going to keep growing it. Until next time.
- [56:17]
G
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F
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F
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