← No Offseason: The Athletic Women's Basketball Show
No Offseason: The Athletic Women's Basketball Show
First week surprises, plus bold season-long predictions
00:48:15
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- [00:01]
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For.
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Zena Keda
The Athletic I'm Zena Kaeda and this is the Athletic Women's Basketball show presented by Michelob Ultra. Welcome back to the Athletic Women's Basketball show presented by our partner Michelob Ultra. I am so excited for what is in store for you all today. It's very rare at the Athletic when writers that don't cover the same teams or exactly the same verticals or whatever are in the same room because they're all over the country, sometimes all over the world. Well, we have a special treat because today, three of our writers from our women's basketball vertical were in the same room over the weekend, and they had a chance to break down some of the biggest, biggest surprises out of the first week of NCAA women's action. And so they are gonna take some time to talk amongst themselves. You get to peer into the world of the writers at the Athletic covering women's basketball. So without further ado, Chantel Jennings, Ben Pickman, and Sabrina Merchant take it away.
- [06:10]
Chantel Jennings
So the last time Ben, Chantel and I were all in the same room, it was the Final Four in Dallas, and three of us had done a live recording before the final game in the bowels of American Airlines center while cooks and a search dog passed us, while we were trying to record a preview episode for the final. Our predictions were terrible that day, but we're gonna try again for the start of the 2023, 24 season.
- [06:37]
Ben Pickman
I think similarly to that day when that door would open up and that, like, large, whooshing air came in today, we might be interrupted by police sirens or an ambulance. So this feels very apt for the second time we've done this.
- [06:50]
Chantel Jennings
Yeah. Next time, we can find three chairs when we record a podcast. For now, we're back on the floor talking college basketball, and we have a great first week of the season to discuss. So without further ado, let's just go through some things that surprised us this week. Three things that surprised us from week one of the college basketball season. Ben, you want to kick us off?
- [07:08]
D
Yeah. I mean, the biggest surprise is that as we record this on Sunday evening, both the number one team and number two team heading into the season have lost games already, so they will not be going undefeated. LSU and UConn. So we have two top teams who have lost. I guess. Which of those is more surprising to you guys? Chantelle?
- [07:29]
Ben Pickman
Yeah, I would say as much of sort of both of these teams are new look, in a way, because they're pieces that are coming together. At LSU, obviously, it's because of transfers and freshmen. At UConn, it's because of injuries, I guess. I kind of thought. I didn't think UConn was going to lose. I thought there was a chance that LSU lost because Colorado is a good team. They returned four starters. I didn't predict Free to Foreman to hit seven threes. But when that happens, hard to win three to four, true three to four men. So I think I am, I think both aren't super, you know, like the panic meter isn't on red at this point. But I do. There's obviously going to be a new number one by the time that this podcast comes out. And it'll be deserved because that team, which we'll talk about later, has two top 25 wins already this season. And LSU and UConn don't.
- [08:22]
Chantel Jennings
Yeah, I think I'm more surprised by UConn losing, like you said. And I also think that I'm more concerned about UConn going forward because LSU, even though I agree that there were a lot of new pieces for UConn, we saw a similar construction to this team advance to the NCAA final, you know, 18 months ago, and that was with Paige Beckers, you know, working off of an injury that kept her out of much of that season. Azpud being, you know, injured throughout parts of that season as well, I thought that they had more institutional knowledge of what that team looked like. Whereas LSU has three starters who are different from last year. They're missing the 1 and the 5 from last year's team, which is. I don't think we've talked enough about how hard it is to replace those end points of your starting lineup, especially.
- [09:09]
Ben Pickman
When your point guard is not necessarily a true point guard who played that.
- [09:12]
Chantel Jennings
Position and you're not even really starting a center next to Angel Reese. Although that seems to have been adjusted over the next couple games with this Anisa Morrow off the bench experiment. So I think lsu, it was always going to be a longer lead time to get to where they want to be, especially because they didn't play anybody during non conference last year. Like, this is the hardest game they've played outside of the SEC in the Kimmoke era. Right. But UConn just being unable to play defense against NC State was a little bit surprising to me. And this is, as somebody who was very high on the Wolfpack entering the season, that NC State guard trio of Ziya James, Saniya Rivers, and then Zoe Brooks off the bench, probably the most swag outside of Notre Dame in the country, maybe South Carolina too. But just it was very surprising to watch a Gino Oriemma team be this unprepared defensively at this point in the season.
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D
I mean, I think that's a good point. I think the biggest thing on UConn though, that maybe surprised me from their loss. And first we should say in both of These contexts. Credit to NC State and Colorado for playing really, really good games because they both look great. And that should be said from the outset. I think the biggest surprise, maybe from UConn's win was Paige looked really, really good. Like, she scored 27 points, she had three assists. Like she came back and played much better this time around on Sunday than she had, you know, during the first week of the season. And I think that was a huge positive step in the right direction for UConn. And so maybe that is the biggest surprise, that if she's doing that in game two, obviously there's a lot that needs to change. Az Fug really struggled against the Wolf Pack, as you're saying, one of seven from three. Three. I think she made her first one and.
- [10:46]
Chantel Jennings
And looked terrible the rest of the.
- [10:48]
D
Rest of the night. So that obviously is a little bit of a flag you probably won't sustain. But, you know, big surprise, I guess, Paige being Paige so early on, positive in the right direction. For me, though, I was surprised at how LSU came out, and I think we all knew that they were going to go through some growing pains, and I think it was unfair to expect them to, like, run the table. And I think maybe we reviewers were a little bit spoiled seeing South Carolina run the table in the regular season as the number one team. To think, okay, we're gonna have another, yeah, that it's easy. Someone else is gonna go wire to almost wire. But I was just surprised at how they came out and looked like there were a lot of moving parts, but there was so much talent there and they are the defending champions that frankly, like, I thought they would win that game and play pretty comfortably and at least look better because they didn't look that great. And there was, you know, an effort question that kind of came up post game. Right. Kim Wokey kind of raised that. So it wasn't just a matter of fit. So that was a little bit more alarming if we're gonna look forward than anything UConn did, because I think UConn's still also going through some growing pains. Be expected.
- [11:48]
Ben Pickman
But the team that you just brought up is probably the next team we should talk about, which is South Carolina. Obviously not a wire to wire number one this year, but two huge wins to start the season. The way in which they won 200 point games from a group that I don't know exactly how many starts their turn. Not many. You had the entire Freshie class sitting sidelined today in Colonial Lake Mitchell's jersey retirement.
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D
Yeah.
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Ben Pickman
And Asia Was there, like, you've got all of this greatness on the sideline and then the fact that they sort of backed it up on the court. And I think probably the most impressive thing to me or the most surprising thing to me is, holy crap, the depth. Like, all 10 players scored against Maryland, Don can go 10 deep. It's not like she's running 10 deep against like some random school that's not very good that they're overmatched against. Maryland's a good team. They didn't look great today, but they're a good team. And you still have 10 players scoring, five players coming off. Like, I'm surprised by this.
- [12:45]
Chantel Jennings
Yeah, we knew that South Carolina was deep last year, too, right. Don has done an outstanding job recruiting for the past, you know, decade or so at South Carolina. Like, the talent just keeps rolling through. But it didn't seem like all of the depth was as functional, for lack of a better word, as it is this season. Like, I. It seems like every player, at least the top eight, has a purpose in this rotation. Like, you, you have your starters, but then, you know, coming off the bench, you've got Malaysia Fulwile, who obviously just not enough words to describe what she has done to start the season. Listen back to last week's episode about the freshman in the opening week of the season and watch her clip of both of those highlights against Notre Dame. I mean, Chantel, you brought up that behind the back pass that she made in the second half, which, honestly, like, I had to pause the game as I was watching it. It was so insane. But yeah, like, it just seems like everybody has a place in the South Carolina rotation. Whereas last year, you know, you had the five that wanted to play. You know, you had that starting lineup. And it was. If somebody else was coming in, it was because something had gone wrong in the first five. Whereas this one, it's just everybody adds something additionally positive.
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D
Seven players in double figures scoring wise against Maryland, and I think they still shot more than 50% from the field. And that is just a credit to everyone succeeding, like, literally everyone across the board.
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Chantel Jennings
And they made more threes.
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Ben Pickman
I was going to say 50% from.
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Chantel Jennings
Threes, more threes in this game than any game last season.
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D
And the offense as a whole has just played with far more, like, energy and pace. I think, you know, we're two games in, so obviously everything we say now is a small sample. But they're having. It's almost. It's more than 83 possessions per 40 minutes. And that would be the most since, you know, since 2009. One of her hoop stats kind of goes back to this would also be their best offensive rating again two games in. So throwing in the caveats as we need to. But you know, this is their best offense. There are 126 points per 100 possessions there. And so there's certainly room to improve defensively. And that was something that Dawn Staley talked about after their first game. We haven't heard post game sound yet, but I imagine it's another thing that she's going to continue to flag even after a good defensive performance against Maryland. I imagine, as any coach would, there's plenty to clean up on the defensive end. But the fact that this team is playing with a ton of energy, a ton of pace and that they pick up some big wins early on, I think that is a huge credit to them because it's not that experienced of a group. And so to have a ton of younger players step up is, you know, maybe that's the biggest surprise of the whole week. And I think, you know, we sat around before this and said they're probably the number one team in the country come when the next AP poll comes out because of the wins they've had so far.
- [15:16]
Ben Pickman
Well, and to piggyback on the point you made about it, feels like everyone sort of adds something, but I think also everyone is so versatile, like it's not like you, with the exception of a few players like Camila Cardoso is not going to step out and jack up a bunch of threes. However, for the most part, this is a group that can really play off one another in a lot of different ways, which I think is going to make it really hard to game plan for them this year. Against Maryland, 30 assists on 43 buckets. Like, this is a team that's sharing the ball really, really well. They're really unselfish. I think that makes them even more dangerous in that way. There's just not a lot of downside about this team at this point in the year.
- [15:53]
Chantel Jennings
I love their playmaking so much. Like Chantelle, you and I had written those transfer tiers prior to the start of the season and you know, a lot of back and forth discussion but ended up with Tahina Papow as the number one most impactful and you know, her numbers don't like jump off the page, but she's had seven and eight assists I believe in each of the first two games just adds a level of dynamic playmaking alongside Raven Johnson, who, you know, we talked about like, very little experience coming back on this team, I think. Two starts in her South Carolina career. Camila Carduso, zero starts in her South Carolina career. You know, you've got the rookies coming in who just haven't seemed to miss a beat. Like you said, there's just a level of versatility for everybody on this roster and they're capable. I mean, we've only really seen them win one way so far, which is just shoving the ball down your throat and, you know, making you pay in transition and like that works. But I do think that we'll be able to see, you know, a more versatile approach as different opponents, you know, try to blockade the paint or do different things to test them out. Because, like, Maryland is a pretty small team. Right? Like, they're not the type of team that's going to be able to defend you that aggressively in the paint. They don't have shot blockers or that kind of room protection. So I'll be interested to see like, what it looks like when a team can more strategically game plan for what South Carolina does at the basket. But I mean, I think they're going to be the number one team by the time this podcast comes out. I hope that that's not a prediction that goes awry, but, you know, number one team to end last regular season. I don't think that just because they didn't win the national title that they weren't the best team over the course of that season. Maybe we were too quick to write them off at the start of this year.
- [17:20]
D
Yeah, I mean, we'll see how they perform in close games and late game execution. And once they really get tested whether that's a non conference play or you know, when conference play begins, like, obviously with new teams, there's going to be a lot of figuring out because there is no Aaliyah Boston safety valve to be pulled on either end. So that is something certainly to watch for. But you mentioned it, Sabrina. The, you know, team's not missing a beat and we talked about, you also talked about, you know, their, their tournament loss. You alluded to it last year. That was to Iowa. Right. Obviously in, in Dallas. We were all there and it was one of the best games, if not the best game of the tournament. And just an unbelievable crowd. Iowa picked up maybe the biggest win of week one or maybe the, the biggest win in the biggest game. Beating Virginia Tech in Charlotte in another showcase game. They haven't missed a beat so far. Caitlin Clark looks like Caitlin Clark, she is scoring the ball very well. Not Surprisingly, I guess. What do you guys make of the Iowa Hawkeye start, the Caitlin Clark start to open the season?
- [18:19]
Chantel Jennings
You know, it's not really that frequent when a team has a guard who puts up 32 points in a collegiate game and you can say that she was soundly outplayed by somebody on the opposing team. And yet that's what happened with Kenny Brooks in Virginia Tech. Georgia Amore played this fantastic game and Charlotte really did everything she could to get the Hokies over the finish line. And I believe Kenny Brooks words were, you know, our girls are playing checkers and Caitlin's playing chess. And that's I think gonna be a problem for a lot of teams this season because yeah, Iowa lost Monica SONATO, they lost McKenna Warnock, they have a lot of inexperienced players on this roster. They're barely even starting another four alongside Hannah Stahlke, I believe Molly Davis got to start against Virginia. That's a very small lineup, right? There's, you know, a lot of missing.
- [18:58]
Ben Pickman
Pieces and Molly Davis can play the 1, 2 or 3 according to Lisa Fluter.
- [19:03]
Chantel Jennings
Very versatile players across every roster. But you know, you look at Iowa and I think a lot of nights it's just going to be we have Caitlin and you don't. And we saw that with the 44 points against Virginia Tech. You know, she just became Iowa's all time leading scorer in program history, surpassing Megan Gustafson's total. She's going to set an unstable Division 1 record for the most 30 point games at some point in the next couple weeks or a couple days. You know, who knows? I think, you know, we talked about a very deep team in South Carolina that has a lot of different pieces they can throw at you. Iowa's kind of the exact opposite, right? They have the one queen on the chessboard that nobody else can really match up with. And yeah, maybe some teams will figure out how to scheme against Caitlin, but I don't love just having to go up against Iowa and bet that Caitlin.
- [19:50]
D
Has a bad night for me. The thing that jumped out and I'd be curious, Sabrina, like being there in person was not. It's not a miracle when someone else scores. But it definitely feels by any means because they do have some talented players around Caitlin obviously. But it does feel like every basket that isn't scored by her takes on added value. Because if you can get, you know, 12 points from Hannah Stokey in a game, if you can get Kate Martin scoring going forward, nine from the field to score 10 points, like the fact that other players when they pick up the slack, it just feels so different than every other situation, frankly, in the country in terms of offensive product because you know that Caitlin's going to get 30, she might get 40 on a given night. And so you don't need that much from the people around her. And so yes, I certainly. You talk about the depth of Iowa, there's a lot of questions about who is going to provide, you know, the added scoring on offense. Especially Gabby Marshall had a really off night against Virginia Tech. She did not score. And so that's probably, you know, that might have been the biggest surprise of the whole night that someone who was one of their most reliable players last year and a reliable player on this year's team played the way that she did and just struggled. 0 of 6 from 3 against the Hokies. But just feels so important when other people score. And that really I think is something to watch. And sure Caitlin's gonna get 30 or 40 a night, but for me it's all about the other people. With Monica Sonato not there, who's gonna pick up the slack.
- [21:16]
Chantel Jennings
Well, I do think it's sort of gonna be a, you know, any given night, somebody can step up type of situation. Whereas other teams, you need, you know, three or four people to compliment your star just because of, you know, your star is putting up 20 points unnecessarily, 40 points in any given night. Whereas Iowa, if a Kylie Fearbach, you know, scores eight points in a nice little fourth quarter run, or Kate Martin gets a couple of and ones, you don't need that much more than that. So yeah, I have a lot of questions about Iowa's depth. You know, they're. That game against Virginia Tech, they didn't even end up playing Addison O'Grady, who was supposed to be, you know, potential starter. Potential starter, big role in the front court coming into this season. There's a lot of players with not a lot of experience who are going to be playing big minutes for Iowa and they're going to get every team's best shot. Like Lisa Bluder mentioned that Iowa raised opposing teams attendance by 3,500 in each game last season. Like, people are going to want to see this team, they're going to want to boo this team, they're going to want to beat this team. And so I do think that when we get to March and potentially April that this Iowa team will be very battle tested. But it will be exceedingly interesting to watch, you know, who shows up during these given games. Because I think it should be Gabby Marshall and Kate Martin. But like, maybe it is somebody else that I haven't really considered yet because this is such a different roster than the one that made the final last year.
- [22:32]
Ben Pickman
Ben, I think your point is a good point about, you know, if she's putting up, let's say 35 points a game, which isn't, you know, inconceivable to think if she's putting up 35 points a game, they need to find 40 points elsewhere. I think this is a bench and a team that, you know, between five players finding 40 points, not ridiculous. You don't even have to have double digits. No one else has to hit double digits, right? Like, so I think that's definitely doable. And I think the thing that makes them most dangerous is especially we saw with Gabby, her run during the NCAA tournament last year. Like this is a player who can hit, you know, go through three, four games hitting 60% from beyond the arc. And so I think having those stretches, especially where she can remind people how dangerous she is, would be important. I think Hannah developing even more of a mid range game or more of a mid range game and being stronger in the paint will really help. But this is a group that, you know, if five players can get to eight points, they're in good shape, which is not necessarily something you can say about any other team in the country.
- [23:33]
D
And we'll have to see because look, I came away also from Thursday night's game. I mean Virginia Tech, I thought has to come away positive, feeling positive, feeling good about themselves, that Caitlin Clark scores 44, that, you know, Kate Martin gets 10, that Hannah Stokey gets 12, that Kylie Feuerbach gets eight points or right. So I think she got eight points and that they still only lost by four and that yeah, sure, Georgia Amore played great as you mentioned off the top, Sabrina, but credit to Virginia Tech, they will be a Final four team or a final four level team again. I think that's pretty clear. And you know, it's a little nerve wracking if you're an Iowa fan, that Caitlin Clark gets 44 and then they have all these other positives and that they still only eke out a win over Virginia Tech. And obviously that's a really good team and you have to win close games. And we've seen, you know, early on a lot of teams with high expectations lose some close games. Tennessee, we were talking about pre show, you know, they kind of let one slip away or let one go in the final final couple minutes of that one to Florida State. But you know, I obviously going to be must watch, highly scrutinized, highly talked about and you know, as Sabrina said, they're going to be followed every single place they go. We're going to transition and talk a little bit more forward. Looking into some three point predictions for the rest of the year. Let's stick with something about Iowa and Caitlin Clark as we've talked about it for national player of the year. As you guys think about that award right now at weekend or maybe don't even count the first week. Do you guys like Caitlin Clark to a national player of the year or anyone else in women's college basketball? Or the field, Clark.
- [25:07]
Ben Pickman
Or the field. I'm gonna be bold. I'm gonna say Clark at this point maybe that's not bold. So we're just laughing at me as if that was the less bold option.
- [25:15]
Chantel Jennings
I thought you were gonna say the.
- [25:16]
Ben Pickman
Field when you said bold maybe. Okay, I'll go with the less bold option. I guess what I'm thinking about right now is that as I was looking back at her 30 point games, thinking that she was going to get another one today and that she would break or own the record at this point, just looking at the Big Ten schedule, you're looking at these teams where it's like, gosh, she really knows how to take apart Nebraska. Gosh, she really knows how to break down Michigan. I think she's because she's so heavy into film because she understands how these teams play against her. No one's going to reinvent the wheel. She's going to be able to put up those kind of performances. It's these non conference opponents. The fact that she put up 44 against Virginia Tech, a team that she doesn't know as well as a Michigan or an Ohio State. But I think she's going to have a ton of opportunities through the Big Ten schedule to put up big numbers. So I guess I'll go with Caitlin.
- [26:05]
Chantel Jennings
Because you said Caitlin Clark. I'm going to take the field because that's good podcasting for me to disagree with you. So thinking about the preseason All American team for the ap, it was Caitlin Clark, Paige Beckers, Angel Reese, Elizabeth Kitley, Mackenzie Holmes and Cameron Brink. And other than Caitlin Clark, I don't know that any of the other five have had what I would consider player of the year type starts to the season though Paige had, you know, a nice game against North Carolina State. The fact that they lost to an unranked team even on the road start the year as not like, you know, player of the year coordination. It's interesting to think about who could fill in for the field. Right. Like, I assume LSU is going to get better. Angel Reese will probably get the most praise for what happens with lsu, but maybe Anissa Moro will take some of that credit. Maybe Mikayla Williams will take some of that credit. Or Haley Van Lith. It's such a deep team that I find it hard for her to be able to present as compelling of a case as Caitlin does. Like, sort of what happened with Aaliyah Boston last year where she just wasn't asked to do as much. Yeah.
- [27:03]
Ben Pickman
I currently feel like you're making an argument for Caitlin.
- [27:05]
Chantel Jennings
I'm getting there. I'm getting there. I think Georgia Amore for Virginia Tech is gonna have a really good opportunity for player of the year. The fact that she's already lost to Caitlin, not a great start. But, you know, you get an ACC title, you know, I believe that would be the first regular season ACC title for Virginia Tech in their program's history. That's a really good marker in your favorite. Like Ben said, I came away from that game, Iowa, Virginia Tech feeling pretty good about Virginia Tech because of all the new pieces they had to integrate, and still being able to come within 4 of Iowa was a pretty good marker for where they are at this point in the season. I also think that, you know, Juju Watkins, Southern California. I know freshmen don't often win player of the Year. Paige Beckers did do it three years ago, so it's not like it's unprecedented. She's gonna have the ball in her hands so much and already has, you know, this national television defining moment. It was true tv. It was national television that, you know, sort of sets her up, you know, for this type of conversation coming forward. I still like Alyssa Pele at Utah. I think they're going to have an opportunity to put up big numbers. So there's players around the country, maybe not the ones that are specifically on the preseason All American team. I think we'll have a chance to really get into this conversation. Unfortunately, with South Carolina, again, like the eight deep, it's going to be hard to just single in on one, but there's just so much talent around the country. Right. Like, I know we talked about basically just the teams that went to the Final Four last year in our opening segment, but there's so many teams that were really fun to watch this past week, even if they, you know, didn't necessarily come out with wins. Like Rekia Jackson, still looked good for Tennessee. Tonia Latson looked great for Florida State.
- [28:38]
Ben Pickman
The basketball has been really good.
- [28:39]
Chantel Jennings
Basketball's been really, really good. Right. So I think as awesome as I project Caitlin Clark to be, you know, the field is just so.
- [28:48]
Ben Pickman
It's deep, so beautiful.
- [28:49]
Chantel Jennings
You know, like there's so many Avengers beyond Caitlin Clark. Like, we can pick another one.
- [28:53]
D
I don't know, I thought that was a pretty unconditioned case. If I'm gonna be the judge of your guys cases, I think I'm gonna lean more towards Chantelle's case because, I mean, I think the Amor case you made is, is probably the strongest of that group just because of how much she's gonna have the basketball in her hand, the opportunity to have some high profile moments. Her ability to score and play make, I think is a huge credit. And we know Kenny Brooks, like they're going to lean in and get everything out of her that they possibly can. I mean, I think, Paige, you certainly make an argument. Again, we know statistically she's going to have a case. I also would say, you know, Cambrink got up to a really slow start, but like, she's the kind of player everything at Stanford is really going to run through her. Like she's going to be so, so important. And I guess Mackenzie Holmes as well at Indiana. And now we're just recapping really good players in the field. But all that is to say, like, Caitlin Clark is going to produce. She's the one commodity that, you know, people know she's going to produce on a nightly basis. And you know, I think some of these other teams are going to. LSU is the biggest example. I think they're just statistically going to cannibalize each other a little bit. We've seen that early on with Angel Reese's numbers in production and Caitlin Clark's going to have the moment.
- [30:02]
Ben Pickman
And so I think no one's cannibalizing Caitlin Clark's numbers at Iowa.
- [30:06]
Chantel Jennings
I think you actually made a better argument against Caitlin Clark than I did when you said that you don't trust Iowa supporters to necessarily have at every given night for Caitlin. And if they're not as good as we project them to be because their formula has very little margin for error. It's a lot of Caitlin and not much else. So if Iowa just isn't as successful from a team perspective, I think that's what works against Clark's favor.
- [30:27]
D
I mean, that's your education at work. Credit to you for pointing that out. I just think like, Iowa doesn't need to go Undefeated. Like, I think the biggest reminder that I had, I think at the start of this week and this I think will be true of Iowa is like, it's okay to lose games and it should be expected to lose games. That South Carolina set the bar so high, especially last year during the regular season and really throughout the tournament until it just was over in a flash when they played Iowa that, like, it felt weird to see LSU lose. And it will also feel weird when Iowa loses. But we should expect Iowa to lose some games during the regular season that, you know, they can go whatever. The math will be 26 and 4, 27, 3, however many games they're playing. I don't. I assume it's around 30 of some sort. That's just a guess, but you know, it's going to happen and I don't think that's going to take away from her case. And I just think like she'll have the body of work even in losses to, you know, there'll be a one or a two season. And I don't think that necessarily matters if they go undefeated or they lose four games or five games because she's just going to produce and everything's going to be on her shoulders. There's Caitlin Clark, the Caitlin Clark Show. One thing is for certain, it will be must watch every single, every single timeout. Another prediction for you guys going forward, what is a top 10 team or a non top 10 team rather, who you think has the best chance to make the Final Four or you think will be among the teams in Cleveland? Cleveland, Ohio. Beautiful Cleveland in April when the Final Four rose around in March and April.
- [31:58]
Ben Pickman
Well, Ben, I'm glad you kind of pointed to me first because I have a feeling I'm stealing Sabrina's right now because she mentioned juju Watkins earlier. But I'm going to go with usc. They're a team that has a lot going for them. I think the fact that as Sabrina pointed out, Juju is going to have the ball in her hands a lot. She's going to have an opportunity to grow through the season in a really cool way. It's going to be an opportunity to watch a player really blossom in front of our eyes. And as she gets stronger, USC is going to get substantially stronger. I think she and Raya Marshall together are a super fun tandem and they have shooters to fill in around. And then also maybe one of the strongest points for this team is that they have Lindsey Gottlieb leading them. She's a coach who already took a team to the Final Four. She took Cal to the Final Four in her third year there. I believe that team returned most of the starters from her second year, but I think she, she knows how to coach and get a team to that point. She can bring this team together through the year. And kind of the last point about them is that they're playing in the PAC 12, which. Between the PAC 12 and the SEC, you know, you can make the debate which one is the stronger conference, but it's going to be. They're going to see a lot of different looks, they're going to see a lot of different defenses. They're going to have an opportunity to learn from losses because they will lose for sure, but they're just going to be so ready, I think, in March. And so it might be a team that gets there with a four seed. You know, like, I don't, I don't necessarily expect them to be the one seed coming out of the pack 12, so they might be a slightly lower seed, but I think come March they could be super dangerous.
- [33:27]
Chantel Jennings
I'm also going to pick a team from my neck of the woods, but not quite as close to Los Angeles. You know, in the swan song of the PAC12, I'm going to pick another PAC12 team. I'm going to take Colorado. I know we talked about them earlier in the show, but I don't think, you know, even though Ben gave them credit for beating lsu, they kind of have everything that you want for a Final Four run because they have a ton of experience. They return, I think, six of their top seven players in terms of minutes from last year. They have a system that it's just really hard to play against. Like we saw how physical they were able to be with lsu. They can go big when you have Nettie Bonle in the middle, they can just attack you with their guard play with Jalen Sherrod, they can spread the floor. They've got, you know, Frida Foreman, they've got Quay Miller, who's good from distance, theoretically, Maddie Nolan, if she comes off the bench and brings some sort of three point shooting options for them. They're a really deep team. They already had a little bit of tournament success last year getting to the Sweet 16, losing to Iowa and was a pretty close game. I mean, you talked about Free to Foreman, seven threes and that opener against lsu. She had just terrible foul trouble in that game against Iowa and I really think if she hadn't gotten in foul trouble, we're looking at a very different outcome in terms of that. You know, Buffs versus Iowa game. I just really like how composed they seem in that first game of the season, playing in the Pac 12. They're going to have so many opportunities to be tested over the course of conference play, and I think that's going to serve them well as it did last year. I just. I like older, veteran teams. I think that works well. I know we saw a team with, like, a lot of new pieces and transfers win last year, but I think the formula of having a team that has gone through trials together knows what it takes to win in those tough moments. Plus, I'm obviously hugely west coast biased. I think it might be a little early for usc, but I like where Colorado is at this point in their maturation.
- [35:12]
D
I'm gonna go to a conference that I don't think we've mentioned at all. I think we're 30 minutes in, and I don't think we've mentioned one single Big 12 team the entire time in any real depth. I guess you can say this is a future SEC team, but that is the biggest prediction. But I'm gonna go with Texas, and I think they have the pedigree that you would think a Final Four team could have. They entered last season, if you remember. I think they were the preseason number three team heading into the 20, 22, 23 season. And right off the bat, they lost. I think it was four of their first seven games, and they had a. Just a really, really difficult schedule right out of the gate. A lot of that team has returned. Most importantly, Rory Harmon is still in school. The Big 12 defensive player of the year last year. First team Big 12 guard, and just one of the most exciting and frankly, best players in the country. Someone who name probably doesn't get mentioned on the All American list the way it should, but we saw from her freshman year, really onward that she has potential to be one of the best players in the country. And I think it wouldn't be shocking if she was that this year. And so Texas, you know, throw out their first week. I think their win, they're one. And, oh, they haven't played anybody, like, no notable games on the schedule so far. But last year they really struggled in close games, right? I don't think they lost. They were 26, 10. They didn't lose by more than 10 at all all season long. But I think they struggled. They 4 and 9 in games decided by 10 or fewer points. And so if they can right some of those wrongs and just, you know, Harmon and Gonzalez and the core around them can Perform in close game situations a little bit better. This is the kind of team that could flip the script and be a top five team, be a top ten team really quickly and they have the guard play and they have the depth to go on a run. And Chantel, you're talking about Final Four coaches like Vic Schaefer has been there and has had success not at Texas necessarily, but Mississippi State. And we saw even, you know, two years ago when they played Stanford in the NCAA tournament, like they were right there, right. With a berth on the Final Four on the line that they almost got, you know, a handful of possessions. I think it was a nine point game, but they probably should have. They almost won it. Which is to say so, you know, I like Texas in a conference that, you know, again, we haven't really mentioned they. I think they are the favorite to win that conference. Right. I'm looking at the nods and I.
- [37:32]
Chantel Jennings
Don'T think Baylor's right there, but I think Texas would be favorite.
- [37:35]
D
Yeah, yeah.
- [37:36]
Ben Pickman
Also the motivation factor for Texas. We were on a call with Vic Schaefer earlier in the preseason and he was talking about how he had the Louisville score up all over the gym and in the weight room, in the bathroom stalls. In the bathroom stalls. Everywhere these players went they saw that score and remembering what it felt like to lose that game. So I think, you know, potentially of all three teams that we've talked about so far, you've picked the team that I think has the biggest sort of chip on its shoulder and motivating factor to make a run like that.
- [38:03]
D
I think they're definitely the most slept on. Like I think, you know, Colorado, a splashy win. USC a splashy start. Texas, I haven't heard one thing about Texas.
- [38:12]
Chantel Jennings
I guess the Big 12 also has something of a swan song with Texas.
- [38:15]
D
That's true. Definitely another swan song there. But like I'm interested just when maybe it will take for conference play to be to really begin and they start to rack up some wins for people to really start to talk about them. But they're a team that I think could sneak up on a lot of people come, come February and come March and you know, who knows, make a Final Four run. The last big prediction that we were going to do is just a game of stay or go. We're just going to rattle off five players and just say do we think they will stay in college one more season or head to the 2024 WNBA Draft? I should get the plug in and say the draft lottery is in just over a month's time. So we will potentially know where Caitlin Clark, if she does declare, if you think she will declare, would be playing. But guys, and we're playing this because.
- [39:02]
Ben Pickman
Obviously the COVID bonus here, maybe some of our listeners don't know that, but these players, this is not a conversation we normally have in college basketball unless you're Jackie Young. But whether or not a player is going to stay in college and utilize that Covid year or go into the pros, this is actually kind of a fun time in in our careers as sports writers covering women's basketball because we haven't really been able to talk about this before. So Ben, we can let you rattle off some names and we can stay.
- [39:30]
D
First name, Caitlin Clark.
- [39:32]
Chantel Jennings
I think go.
- [39:33]
Ben Pickman
I think go.
- [39:34]
D
I think we are a clean sweep.
- [39:36]
Ben Pickman
Here and we are saying this is what we think they will do, not what they should do, right? Correct.
- [39:40]
D
Yes.
- [39:40]
Ben Pickman
Okay. Yes.
- [39:41]
D
Yeah. And she's gonna go, I think because she is the most talented player in the country and we saw proven everything.
- [39:48]
Chantel Jennings
She needs to at the collegiate and.
- [39:49]
Ben Pickman
Said she's thinking of this as her senior year.
- [39:51]
D
She recently signed with Excel and Agency. Not that that is the end all be all but that clearly shows some kind forward looking this as well that she has a partner who would potentially follow her into the WNBA assuming things go well. So, you know, she'll be the number one pick in the draft if she goes. I think it would be shocking if she wasn't. And you know, I think we're all on the same page there. Angel Reese, I think stay maybe.
- [40:16]
Ben Pickman
Yeah, I think stay one more year.
- [40:18]
Chantel Jennings
I think she'll go.
- [40:20]
D
I also think she'll go.
- [40:22]
Ben Pickman
Okay, this is good to have debate. I guess I'm only saying that because I think she has sort of played around with the idea of it and I do wonder if sort of another. She really enjoys lsu. Like I was down there with her. She didn't get her full college experience at lsu. So I wonder how much sort of that experience of enjoying playing there, enjoying playing with those teammates, especially if they don't win a national championship this year and they don't repeat. I wonder if that would be a motivating factor for her to come back.
- [40:51]
Chantel Jennings
I do think we should take Chantel's opinion on this more seriously than ours because she did spend some time in Baton Rouge in the preseason. Read her preseason feature on Angel Reese, by the way, about which doesn't touch on this topic at all what her summer was like and what it's like coming into this year. For me, it's just she seems like she's ready to grow up beyond what college affords her. Like she's an adult. She can handle a lot more than just being a student in college. And I think it's a lot easier to go for when you already have that one ring under your belt.
- [41:20]
D
I think, yeah, I would second that. She's done pretty much everything you would want to do at lsu. I mean, I think if they win a title, she'll certainly go again. But yeah, she'll be an impact WNBA player as well if and when she goes, and I would expect her to go go this year. Paige Beckers, I think she stays.
- [41:39]
Ben Pickman
I do too. I think especially if they don't win a title. I was also in stores earlier last month and it was, you know, to be in that space and see all the national championships. And to think that this heralded written about Paige Beckers would leave UConn without a title. I don't know. I think if they win, maybe she goes, but I think if they lose, she absolutely stays.
- [42:01]
D
I think for me, I think she goes. But I think it is the toughest of the names we're going to throw out because of that exact reason that I think that legacy question is one that looms large. And also the injury question, right. Not only is it they're not winning a championship, but missing all of last season with an ACL injury, the season before that, also dealing with injuries for half the year and really struggling like, yeah, she's had a little bit of an NCAA tournament moment, right. Against NC State specifically, I guess, two years ago now, but not a lead game. But she's still waiting on those college moments, as you're saying, Chantal. And so, you know, if they win a title, I would expect her to go anyway, but. Or I don't think it's really a question. I still think she goes because I do think there's still the allure of the WNBA and she's good enough to like she just can play in the wnba. Assuming she showed it right off the bat in her second game, she's scoring 27 points. She'll fit in and be a star or be an impact player. But I think it's really tough for all the reasons you said.
- [43:02]
Ben Pickman
I think the fact that AZ would still be at UConn is a really big drawing point for her potentially in coming back. That winning a national championship at UConn with your best friend, something you've talked about for six years, seven years now, to not achieve that, especially if they're at a point where they're thinking, you know, we can. Like, we've talked about how this group doesn't have consistency necessarily this year because of the injuries, but if all of these players came back next year, like, the amount of consistency that could exist for that UConn team is pretty terrifying.
- [43:35]
D
Fourth name, Cam Brink.
- [43:37]
Chantel Jennings
Go.
- [43:38]
Ben Pickman
Yeah, she goes.
- [43:39]
D
I agree. Clean sweep. Impact player at Stanford. Will be an impact defender right away in the wnba. I think where she fits in, Sabrina can talk about, but where she fits on court, I think what team drafts her, how they utilize her in the front court will be something to watch. I think that will be really, really important with camp.
- [43:56]
Chantel Jennings
I think she's the top front court prospect in the country. Like, no holds barred, no disrespect to Angel Reese, just what Cambrian can do on both ends of the floor and like, everywhere on the floor. I think it's pretty gimme. And again, a lot easier to go pro when you already have the ring.
- [44:11]
D
That's true. And the fifth name in that recruiting class, South Carolina, we've talked a little bit about her, but Camila Cardoza, where do you think she goes? Goes pro or stays with South Carolina?
- [44:22]
Chantel Jennings
Camila Cardasso is like the most interesting college player I've ever watched. Because while every other player we've talked about so now, like, up until now, they look so hyper, almost crazy competitive on the court. She looks like she could be doing anything in the world other than playing basketball at any given moment. I could see her staying, you know, like, she seems to have a good time in South Carolina if they potentially don't win this year, like, maybe she wants to have that moment where it's her team leading to a title. I don't know. I don't think she's in any rush.
- [44:52]
Ben Pickman
I've never talked to her about this, but I do wonder, sort of, she's another transfer who maybe hasn't had a chance to sort of live the full college experience in Columbia, and the draw of working with, you know, that staff and how good they are at preparing players for the next level. I could see there being a level of, like, stay one more year, develop in this program one more year, and, you know, your draft stock could be that much higher type of a thing. But I also. She's so fun to watch. Like, she has such a unique skill set that I could see. You know, there are probably a lot of GMs right now that are really praying that she goes because the sooner she can get into The W the better for them, obviously. So she's kind of a toss up too, I think.
- [45:35]
D
Yeah. But I think you guys mentioned the staff and working with Dawn. Like, I think one thing we've seen is that just because you leave South Carolina doesn't mean you leave South Carolina. Right. That Don is still going to be around, that those players still have such an affinity for the university. And so, you know, we've just seen the connection really strong. Not to say that we don't see that with other schools, but it really is pronounced with South Carolina that I think, you know, if Don thinks that Camila is ready to turn pro and can be a top five pick or, you know, make an impact on the WNBA right away or within her first two years, like, I think, you know, that is the kind of thing that your college coach with that reputation is saying, go, then maybe you go turn pro before we close out here. You know, Chantel, I'm going to put you on the spot first with a question, because I think it came up in week one. It's related to this about nil and turning pro. Can you just talk a little bit about, like, this notion of players taking a cut, players taking a pay cut when they turn pro, and what is really happening behind the scenes? What do you kind of think of that idea that is tossed around kind of blindly?
- [46:42]
Ben Pickman
So this is an argument that's thrown out a lot by people that I think don't follow the game super closely and don't quite understand what's going on. The numbers for viewership are higher currently for the college game in the biggest games than the pro game. That is a fact. But this idea that brands that have established relationships with college players would just sort of cut the line when they go probably doesn't make any sense to me. And the people that I've talked to, agents, agencies, marketing experts within the game that follow this professionally, whose livelihoods rely on this, they also agree with that fact that it's, you know, no one is taking a pay cut to enter the wnba. Obviously, the salaries are lower than players would like to see. The salaries are lower than women's basketball fans would like to see. But at the same time, these players who are taking 18 credits, like, you're not doing that anymore. You are getting paid to play basketball. And it opens up sort of a lot of time, if we think about how, how people's time is valued. So there are all these considerations to be made. But the idea that these brands specifically would cut ties with college players just because they're going to the wnba, especially right now as we're seeing WNBA viewership, you know, burst wide open and sort of hit new markets and find new fans everywhere. It doesn't hold a lot of water to me, this argument.
- [48:02]
D
Yeah, I think it's, it's really well said. And certainly again, for the biggest stars, as you're mentioning those brands, Nike is going to follow Caitlin Clark into the pros. State Farm is going to follow her into the pros. Reebok is following Angel Reese. These aren't deals, especially as you see them announced this season. It would be crazy for a brand to sign a one year deal. Right? One year deal with a college athlete like that. Like that is a brand agreement that is going to stick and they're trying to, you know, build equity and connections with fan bases right now for many years to come. That is something that I think we will definitely see. And so I think you are, you are spot on there. I think that's it, guys. I think those are our predictions from the hotel room in Chicago.
- [48:41]
Ben Pickman
Are we able to leave the floor now?
- [48:42]
D
I think we are able to leave the floor. There is not a game we have to go run off to. It is merely a day of meetings and conversations in Chicago. The next time we will do this, probably in this setting, we'll be, as we mentioned, in Cleveland. But we will do this virtually a lot until then. And so for now, let us throw it back to Xena, who is going to go off the script.
- [49:01]
Zena Keda
Thank you, Ben. And thank you to Sabrina Chantel, all of you put it together for finding one of the very rare occurrences that you're going to be together this season and using it to talk some hoops for us. And also, I just think that anytime we get an opportunity to kind of poke our heads into the world and the conversations of writers and the people that are covering this day in, day out that are seeing the evolution of teams, players, coaches, just programs in general. It's so special because you guys have context that we don't have, especially across conferences and across schools. You could be a fan of one school and know the context of that one school, but you don't necessarily know it across the league. And so it is very special to be able to hear the different perspectives. As Sabrina said, that makes for good podcasts, but it also just makes for good learning. So I'm sure we all learned a lot today from having all three of you together. Thank you again. So, yes, it is time for me to go off the script for today's off the script, I want to make a shout out to the new documentary that just appeared on Sunday night on Candace Parker called Unapologetic. If you didn't have the opportunity to watch it or record it on Sunday night, don't worry. It is available on espn, so you'll be able to watch it there. But, oh, my goodness, this documentary. I love a good sports documentary. This one was phenomenal, and I feel like one. As I was thinking and watching this, I was like, how many really good women's basketball documentaries are there? But not necessarily of teams, because there are a few about teams, but about one player, right? About one particular player and being able to see and have them unapologetically and vulnerably and transparently tell their story. I love this documentary because I think that as a person that always appreciated Candace, particularly from a basketball perspective, I had a hurt shoulder in college, so I had my shoulder wrapped up just like she had hers at Tennessee's. I would tap my shoulder, you know, before my free throws if I could remember. But, like, you know, just trying to be her, right? Like, just wanting to be like her and thinking that she was just so cool and so pretty, but. And also, like, so competitive and she was dunking at McDonald's All American and, you know, doing all these amazing things. And I just had such respect for her being a basketball player that refused to be put in a box, right? She did all these other things, too, and did them really, really well. But I don't think I had an appreciation for everything that was going on in the background, everything that was happening in her personal life, what was going on in her relationship, her identity, raising her daughter. I mean, this documentary really pulls back the curtain on all of that. And you get to see and also hear from her directly on all of these hills and valleys that she went through throughout her career. And I just think you'll gain such amount of respect for her as an athlete, because what she was doing as an athlete was insane. But as a mother, as a woman, as a businesswoman, as a teammate, she is a true, in my opinion, Mount Rushmore type of player for the wnba, and I'm grateful for her. I think that anyone that has the opportunity to watch this should. So that's my shout out, unapologetic on Candace Parker. It shows on ESPN now, if you haven't seen it. But really, really amazing sports documentary. Shout out to Joey Jacoby, I think, was the director and Film 45, the production house that worked with ESPN on making that. All right, that is all for today. Appreciate you all tuning in as always. Again, shout out to our sponsor, Michelob Ultra. Please subscribe wherever you get your podcast. We got another show coming up this week, so don't you miss it. All right? For now, I am Zena Keda encouraging you to keep listening, keep learning and keep loving the game because that's the only way we're going to keep growing it.
- [53:12]
Sabrina Merchant
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Unknown
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- [54:31]
Chantel Jennings
Acast Powers the world's best podcasts.
- [54:34]
Ben Pickman
Here's a show that we recommend.
- [54:39]
Marc Maron
Hey folks, it's Marc Maron from WTF. It's been more than 15 years now, and I'm still talking to all kinds of people in my garage every week. Sometimes it's Bill Burr, sometimes it's Ariana Grande. She just looks at me because she's always going like, dad, it's not that big a deal. Yeah, I go, sorry, I lost my temper. I go, I still love you. You know, Daddy has issues.
- [55:00]
D
Are you afraid of it?
- [55:02]
Marc Maron
Of death?
- [55:02]
Chantel Jennings
Well, I don't know.
- [55:03]
Marc Maron
I think about it all the time.
- [55:04]
Zena Keda
How are we here already?
- [55:06]
Marc Maron
Listen to WTF with Marc Maron twice a week on your favorite podcast app. Or get more WTF with a WTF subscription. Just go to wtfpod.com and click on WTF.
- [55:21]
Chantel Jennings
Acast helps creators launch, grow, and monetize their podcast everywhere. Acast. Com.