← No Offseason: The Athletic Women's Basketball Show
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- [00:00]
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- [02:46]
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- [04:52]
Ben Pickman
For the athletic I'm Ben Pickman and this is the Athletic Women's Basketball show presented by AT&T. Welcome to a very special edition of the Athletic Women's Basketball show. Because the WNBA Finals are here, the New York Liberty and Minnesota Lynx have prevailed in each of their respective semifinal series. And here we are, mid October. A championship is on the line. A lot of history is on the line. A lot of legacies will be made over these next two weeks and it should be a really, really great series. And so to break it all down with me in person, in person in Brooklyn, New York right before the start of the series is Sabrina Merchant. Sabrina, how are you doing? How's New York treating you so far?
- [05:48]
Sabrina Merchant
Let's just see if we can get through the entirety of this podcast.
- [05:52]
Ben Pickman
That is the kind of spirit of someone who has been on the road a lot of travel, a red eye flight. But Sabrina, I think you're ready to dive into a very exciting series.
- [06:01]
Sabrina Merchant
I am super stoked for this series. There's so many things to talk about. I think I might have a pick by the end of this podcast. But, you know, we'll see how it goes.
- [06:08]
Ben Pickman
We'll see how it goes. That's kind of the moral of this story. So let's set this series up. It's Minnesota and New York. This season, the Minnesota Links have actually had the better record when competing against the New York Liberty. They are 31 overall against New York. Including, including very important there, the Commissioner's cup victory that Minnesota had over New York 9489 in Queens earlier this season. That again, is not where this finals will be played, but it is in the borough of Queens. Overall, still, the Liberty, number one seed, number one in that rating, number one in offensive rating. Number three in defensive rating. The Lynx number three in net rating, number four in offensive rating, number two in defensive rating. These are the number one and two seeds, respectively, entering the postseason. And so, Sabrina, the way we're going to set up this show is we're going to go through a list of the five things that we think will determine who wins the WNBA Championship. New York. If they win the title, this will be their first ever. They've lost five titles in each of their first five appearances. Still looking for their first. And the Lynx are back in the finals for the first time since 2017. So let's jump right in. What is the number five thing that you are looking for? We're going David Letterman style here. What is the fifth thing that you are looking for that will determine who wins this championship?
- [07:23]
Sabrina Merchant
The first thing I really want to think about is how much energy Minnesota is going to have coming off of that game five and heading into a game one that is just about 48 hours later in a different city. They had to travel. New York has been here since late Sunday after beating Las Vegas. Just how much is that rust versus rest gonna factor into this Game one? Because there's a lot of adrenaline coming off of a really impressive Game 5 win over the Connecticut Sun. But that is an entirely different opponent from what they're going to have to do against the New York Liberty. The scout is entirely different. I do wonder how much time they'll even have to prep for this particular matchup. It's something that probably was in the back of their heads dating back to Sunday, but just it's a really quick turnaround, very unlike what we saw last year. And I am fascinated to see if Minnesota is just going to get hit really hard and be playing catch up the entirety of the night or if they'll have a little bit of extra juice left.
- [08:15]
Ben Pickman
It's an interesting point, and we should say that we are just coming from New York Liberty practice and about to head off to Minnesota Lynx media availability. They are not practicing Wednesday. When you talk about schedule, like, think about the transition, right? They had played Tuesday night at home against Connecticut. As you're saying, Wednesday is both basically a travel and get settled day. And they have media availability. They're going to have a brief shoot around on Thursday morning and then tip off is Thursday night. What was interesting, though, is talking to New York's coaches like, you know, they are more rested and I think they're more prepared and they could obviously prep what they wanted to do ahead of time. And they had this practice on Wednesday morning, which I think will be imperative, and Minnesota just won't have that same luxury. But it's not like, you know, New York was just sitting there knowing exactly who they were playing. And so as much as we want to read into New York having the rest advantage, which they certainly do, knowing that, you know, they've been home for a few days now that they had time to settle, it's not like they could focus exclusively on one team. And I did talk to, you know, one of their assistant coaches who said, like, they were juggling things and they were up figuring things out, you know, watching to see what would happen, just like any of us were and figuring out, okay, who are we gonna play? What does that mean? And so, you know, this is still a crash course in diving into the tape for New York, even if it is also for Minnesota. But, I mean, I think it's hard to overstate it. Like, Minnesota had this grinding five game series with Connecticut, and they weren't just playing a team that, you know, spreads it out and runs up and down the floor and shoots threes like, this is the Connecticut Sun. Alyssa Thomas is barreling into you in transition time and time and time again. Bree Jones is just hitting the floor, like, all the time because of just how physical and, like, her presence around the basket. D.J. carrington, Marina Mabry like, you know, they might need some ice bags at all moments since arriving in Brooklyn. Hopefully they have access to that because, like, it really is a quick transition for them.
- [09:56]
Sabrina Merchant
Yeah. And this is why as New York Liberty, their first goal this season was earning the number one seed because they are the ones who get to host this game. Even if they had gone to five games against Las Vegas, they still would have been able to be in New York this entire week. And Minnesota has to travel because they did not get the number one seed. So home court advantage is really important, not just for the fact that New York gets to play in front of their home crowd at Barclays center, but also because they get the more lenient travel schedule. And that is one of the benefits of having those extra wins during the regular season. And it's something that they didn't have last year and they rightfully prioritized coming into 2024.
- [10:28]
Ben Pickman
And we should say like Minnesota after their win over Connecticut, like they weren't going to use this as an excuse. They weren't going to dwell on this. Like Cheryl Reeve, Nafisa Collier, Courtney William, you know, they all acknowledge the reality of what's happening, but you know, they're going to dive into the film, they're going to dive into the prep is kind of what they were saying. And they're going to compete as hard as they can if they had one day rest or if they had three days rest. And so, you know, they weren't going to dwell on it. However, like I do still think, and we should say too, like this is a long or a rare short break between series. I think last year and in past years it's been at least a couple days between the semis and the WNBA Finals starting. So this is a little bit of an anomaly in terms of the schedule setup for these WNBA Finals. We should say though that like in a five game series, you know, every game is so, so important. Like you just don't have that margin of error, both literally possession to possession, but also game to game. And so, you know, if Minnesota comes out flat suddenly in game one and New York punches them in the face right away and wins game one, you know, handily, it puts a lot of pressure on game two. Knowing that the history, and we talked about it last year, is that no team has ever come back from a 20 deficit. So, you know, that's why we started with number five here because it is significant and it's certainly worth mentioning. But, you know, we'll see what happens, I guess in terms of how it plays out.
- [11:44]
Sabrina Merchant
Yeah, you mentioned this being a relative anomaly. The last time I can remember this Happening was another Olympic year in 2021 when the Phoenix Mercury won their game five on a Friday evening and then had to play game one Sunday afternoon and were just completely out of gas against the Chicago sky in that Game one. Never really recover in that series. The difference there was Phoenix lost a home game and Minnesota, even if they do blow this Game one, it is a road game. It's not one you'd necessarily expect them to win over the course of the series, even if they do end up taking the series. So there's a little bit more grace in that respect and it's a great.
- [12:14]
Ben Pickman
Callback to that series because I remember being there in person. Like Phoenix felt like they recovered in game two and they win Game two. And I remember being there in game four, which was the eventual series clincher in that game. And for a while it seemed like, you know, Phoenix had that push in it. But Chicago goes on this late run, ends up winning the finals kind of in a snap. Stephanie Dolson, I believe, hits a big jump shot late in that game, which is like one of the defining moments of that series. I know everyone talks about Candace Parker's homecoming, but I have that Dolson moment, you know, kind of, you know, Courtney Vander Sloot series. Right. It was a big salute series and we'll talk about that, I guess in a little bit. But when you lose game one, you just don't have that margin for error and you allow yourself for like a Stephanie Dolson run and a Chicago Sun, a Chicago Sky Sprint in the fourth quarter to be the difference in a series. So we'll see what happens there. That is number five in terms of things we are looking at to determine who wins this year's. Okay, number four, what is the thing that you think will determine who wins this title?
- [13:08]
Sabrina Merchant
So we're talking about the top two three point shooting teams in the league over the course of the regular season. I think Minnesota was number one, New York was number two. Both high volume three point shooting teams, both highly effective three point shooting teams. I do think if either team can get an advantage from beyond the arc, you know, if we have a hot series from one team, not so good from the other, that could easily swing things, especially just considering the number of three point shots both of these teams are going to get.
- [13:34]
Ben Pickman
One of the things to watch for is how Minnesota's guards and wings kind of perform from behind the arc. And that's one of the things I'm keying in on and I'm glad we're talking about it. Because Kayla McBride played one of her best games and really a bounce back game in that Connecticut series. In game five, eight of 16 from the field, three of nine from three, she ends up with 19 points. She's one of the three players for Minnesota who finished in double figures. We saw Courtney Williams, who is traditionally not a three point shooter. She goes three of three from three in that close at game five, you know, she was way more effective than from two. She's nine of 16 overall. She scores 24 points. She really was a big reason why they're even in this position. But three threes from Courtney Williams, like that's not something you can usually bank on if you're Minnesota. The bigger question though is Bridget Carlton, who, you know is, has been one of Minnesota's best shooters all year long. And we've seen her even against New York in the Commissioners cup, like really lighted up from three. But in those final two games against Connecticut, she really struggled. She was two of 11, I believe from both the field and from three in game four. And then in game five, she was just one of seven from the field. Oh, of six from three. So look, it's so easy to pare down series to a make or miss league, a make or miss game. But like, those are free points. And when you think about, you know, why Connecticut is not in this situation, in some ways you can point to Marina Mabry kind of struggling in games two and three of that series. Ty Harris comes alive in game four. That was really big as to why they won that game because she just started to make shots from the perimeter. So I guess we'll kind of see what we're getting from Minnesota's wings in that regard. Maybe not something you can bank on despite having success during the year.
- [15:11]
Sabrina Merchant
Yeah, you think about Minnesota's support players. It was really New York stars who struggled shooting the 3 against Minnesota over the course of the regular season during those three regular season meetings. So not counting the Commissioners cup, Stewie shot 21% on threes and Sabrina Escu shot 18% on her three pointers, which both far below their season long averages and again, high volumes. Dewey's taking about six per game, Sabrina nine per game. So that's, you know, a testament to Minnesota's defense that they're able to run him off the line or just make those shots more difficult, make them more contested. Sabrina doesn't have clean windows to just pull up off of a screen. But I don't expect New York to be that deficient on three point shooting, especially from Those stars who have been so good in the playoffs. Sabrina's numbers have taken a real uptick in the playoffs. Stewie, ever since the Olympic break, has been shooting the ball incredibly well from three point range. So that's something that I think Minnesota is going to have to keep in mind is you wouldn't expect that margin of three point shooting that occurred during the regular season to keep persisting.
- [16:06]
Ben Pickman
I know, you know, we're taping this on a Wednesday afternoon, Wednesday evening here in New York. And so, you know, us, like the coaches for both of these years, not had a ton of time to dive back into the film, though. We started to try and get ahead of both of these matchups. But can you just say a little bit more about why you think Minnesota has frustrated New York shooters all year and what kind of challenge they present defensively in terms of just guarding the variety of options that New York has?
- [16:29]
Sabrina Merchant
Yeah, I think Minnesota just communicates really well. They don't get lost in rotation. They scramble really well out of help and traps, and they just have a lot of really disciplined individual defenders. This has been a personal point that you keep bringing up about Bridget Carlton's length and how she's just bigger than you expect in person and she's a good size. You know, on whether that's Sabrina Unescu or Benijah Delaney Hamilton or whoever happens to be in that wing rotation, I think they frustrated New York's drive and kick attack because they do such a good job of congesting the paint. So the types of threes that New York creates are just not the same as they get against other teams. Like you saw against Vegas, they were able to penetrate into the lane and then kick out. And those were creating a lot of good looks for their shooters. Whereas in Minnesota, like, you get into the paint, it's really clogged. It's very hard to get the ball back out. And so that just shot creation element has been really hard for the Liberty.
- [17:19]
Ben Pickman
What do you see like, on the other end then? You know, Minnesota has been a really good three point shooting team all year. Why have they been so successful? What do you think New York needs to do to then slow them down?
- [17:29]
Sabrina Merchant
I think some of this is just Minnesota shooters getting off, you know, to hot starts. You mentioned Bridget Carlton having these tough games to finish out the Connecticut series. She ends up shooting, you know, 54% on threes against New York during the regular season. That's not even counting her awesome performance in the Commissioners cup final when she makes six of eight, threes and was denied a Commissioner's cup mvp. In my humble opinion, as someone who is not one of the voters, I.
- [17:51]
Ben Pickman
Would agree as a voter who voted for Bridget Carlton, I'll be very public here. Everyone's sharing their votes on things right now. I voted for Bridget Carlton. It was a snub. She should have won mvp.
- [18:01]
Sabrina Merchant
Regardless. You know, this is a very small table size that we're talking about in terms of three point makes, and that's not to say that Minnesota doesn't do an excellent job of creating three pointers. They did that against the Liberty basically throughout the entirety of those four matchups before the start of the postseason. So I think Minnesota was just able to get into its offense better against New York. Whether that was because New York was playing a different lineup during the regular season than they are now. Something we've talked about obviously to great extent is the substitution of Leo Fabich for Courtney Vandersloot in the starting five. That makes him a little bit longer, a little bit more switchy and able to contest jump shots in the starting five than they were when Courtney Vandersloot was playing that two guard off guard position, however you want to describe it. So I do think that New York has been better defensively in the playoffs than they were to close out the regular season. When you think about that last matchup they had against Minnesota the final Sunday of the regular season, Minnesota was able to just get absolutely anything they wanted offensively, especially through the first three quarters. So I do think that, you know, the Liberty haven't improved defensively with Fibich playing in that starting five. And that's going to shake up a lot of the openings that Minnesota saw just because New York's really long and they cover more ground and they're definitely more locked in now than they were at that point of the regular season.
- [19:14]
Ben Pickman
Before getting into the length. And I'll ask you a question about that in a second too. I think the other thing to acknowledge is that, you know, Alana Smith, for instance, is a capable three point shooter. One of the areas that she improved most this season was her ability to step back and, you know, shoot it from behind the arc. She was an almost 40% 3 point shooter this year for her career. She's just a 30% three point shooter. She was sub 30 last year with Chicago. She was 24% briefly in her stint with Indiana and she didn't really play a lot in Phoenix. And maybe part of that was because, you know, she literally was a 11%, 23% and 19% three point shooter. Now, I will say there have been 13 games this year in which she has made zero three pointers in which she has taken a shot from deep. And so, you know, this is not like she's hitting three, four, five threes per night, but she is certainly a viable threat from behind the arc. And I think it's one of the things that we saw when New York played Las Vegas. Like they played Kia Stokes off the floor before she suffered her concussion. And that was something that I think, you know, heading into the series, I think Becky Hammond knew that that was going to be their plan. That for years when New York has played Las Vegas over these last two years, they have not guarded KIA Stokes because she is not a threat from the perimeter. And so they just sag off and sag off and sag off. And so we saw that, you know, when Becky Hammond switches Alicia Clark into the starting lineup, completely different look. And Clark I think scored eight points in the first quarter right after making that change in game two. Smith is a capable three point shooter. They're gonna have to guard her out there or, you know, they're making a very clear choice that they won't. I think what's kind of interesting from defending Minnesota's three point shooters is do they sag off Courtney Williams, Right. Because she is such a monster in the mid range. She has one of the best and most consistent mid range jumpers in the game. But Connecticut so often would go under screens and try and basically say, if you're going to make two, three, four three pointers, like we're going to have to live with that. And the same thing is true with Natisha Heideman. Like she is not a great three point shooter either. I think she's sub 30% as well this year. So it's kind of interesting to see how they defend those guards on Minnesota. Just in principle, you kind of have to make choices in these series and that really is like the chess match of what choices are you kind of willing to accept and what are you willing to give up? For me, if I'm New York, I'm sagging off those guards and I'm actually playing Smith a little bit closer because you just don't want her to get going either.
- [21:27]
Sabrina Merchant
Yeah, it comes back to something that Sandy Rondello has brought up a lot with this particular New York team is just manning up and playing good one on one individual defense. Because you think about how Courtney Williams managed those unders with Connecticut. They just stopped setting screens and she would just blow by and get to the rim. And that created all sorts of problems for Connecticut because Courtney Williams has this blistering speed and can get to the rim and then kick out and, you know, create all of this lovely ball movement for Minnesota. So something that New York is going to have to take care of is just keeping Courtney Williams in front, which is a lot easier said than done. And that comes down to, you know, Spirit Unescu being good in her individual defense. And that's where it's really lovely to have Benigny Hamilton and Leo Fubich as players that you can just throw onto Courtney Williams in a pinch, or even Brianna Stewart can be thrown onto Courtney Williams in a pinch. If you need something to. Just a little defensive subject.
- [22:15]
Ben Pickman
Why do you think. I mean, I guess what did we learn today that was interesting about the length and that kind of starting lineup switch? Because the Leo Febric move, like, I don't think it can be overstated at how impactful that has been. Not in New York necessarily getting to this point, because I still think entering the postseason, like, I picked New York, plenty of other people picked New York, and they were the league's best team in the regular season, largely not starting Leo Fevich and having Courtney Vandersloot in the starting lineup. Now, Feebich did start, I believe, 15 games in the regular season, but I digress, like, she wasn't a regular starter in the way she is now. So I still think New York could have reached this point had they not made that change. But I do still think, like, that change has. Has just opened so many things up. It gave them such a different look against Las Vegas and. And, you know, it could be the difference again in this series versus Minnesota.
- [23:07]
Sabrina Merchant
Yeah, it's just you mentioned that you can't possibly overstate the length, especially on a team where you already have Jonquil Jones, who's 6 foot 6, and Stewie, who's 64 with that 71 wingspan. Just comically large at times, honestly. And Vanigle Laney Hamilton is a solid 6ft and Sabrina Nescu is a big guard. To have another six'four player in there, it just closes the gaps. Right. Like, you just can't see beyond all of those arms. And, you know, a stat that, like, I was looking at just after rewatching some New York Minnesota games from the course of the regular season. If you think about, like the two player lineups that New York played that totaled 50 minutes against Minnesota over the course of this regular season, so not including the commissioner's cup because the WNBA treats it differently than regular season game. The only pairings that had a positive net rating against the Minnesota Links during the regular season were Brianna Stewart and Leo Fibich and Sabrina Unescu and Leo Fibich. So every other pairing, not just negative, sometimes massively negative. And we're talking about Stewie and Jonquil, Stewie and Sav, Sav and Jonquil, Benija, Laney Hamilton thrown in there, all of them difficulty with the Minnesota Links other than when they're paired with Leo.
- [24:17]
Ben Pickman
Feverish, we should say too. Like, the advantage of the length is not just having someone as big as Fibich, just on defense. It is what it creates in terms of switchability. Right. Because you know, Bridget Carlton, 6:1. Caleb McBride I think is 511, 6ft. Courtney Williams is the smallest player in Minnesota starting lineup. And so in theory, like, yes, there are still some height and kind of wingspan discrepancies between the two, but it is also that it is way harder to match up, punt and you know, go at a player when you know, a Kayla McBride screen. If Feebich is guarding her with Collier, like if New York switches it, well, suddenly you have Stewie, who is guarding McBride and you have Fever guarding Collier. And like that's not lost. Right? You haven't lost all that much. And that's really, like, that's where the advantage is. It's not even just in terms of like a man to man, person to person defensive look though, that I think is an advantage still to New York. It is the switchability in terms of getting around the court recovering. You know, it's kind of one of the things that, like we talk about Minnesota's defense and how they move on a string and they all get out and they all recover so well. That is what has kind of happened with New York as a result of making this change.
- [25:23]
Sabrina Merchant
Yeah. And they'll have to play a little bit differently defensively than they did in the first two rounds. As you mentioned, they were kind of playing 4 on 5 against Vegas. Offensively, even with Alicia Clark on the floor, you cannot do that against Minnesota. It doesn't matter how well you think Courtney Williams is going to shoot from three point range. She will take them if she is open and she clearly has the confidence to make them. So I am interested to see how effective all of their defenders can be, like when Stewie isn't roaming as a health defender and when they have to be a little bit more honest in terms of their individual matchups. But they have the personnel Obviously to frustrate what Minnesota can do. And that's just again one of the reasons why this is such a compelling series.
- [25:55]
Ben Pickman
You mentioned Stewie, so I guess let's get into it. Number three thing that you are watching for to determine who wins this series.
- [26:01]
Sabrina Merchant
Is Stewie versus Fee. Right. Let's keep this as obvious as possible. Best player on New York, best player on Minnesota, both UConn products, both the co founders of the upcoming Unrivaled league, which is a topic of conversation this finals.
- [26:15]
Ben Pickman
Let me tell you, good PR for unrivaled shout out for all them. Good timing to launch a league. Hopefully they're promoting it a lot if you're smart and people in their management because there's going to be a lot of unrivaled chatter, a lot of free media as we say.
- [26:28]
Unknown Advertiser
Yep.
- [26:28]
Sabrina Merchant
Courtney Vandersloo, Caleb McBride today, Courtney Williams all signed up to play for Unrivaled. So yeah, couldn't have asked for a better launch in terms of this. But you know, you just think about the best player in the world conversation and for the last few years it's really been an Asia Wilson, Brianna Stewart conversation and it's, you know, shifted back and forth. Stewie, I think had the early lead. Asia charges is harder, I think than anybody really imagined considering how successful Stewie has been over the course of her career. And now this year, you know, Visa Collier finished second in MVP voting and she is the one who's in the finals, you know, because Asia Wilson was taken out by Brianna Stewart's team in the second round when I think it's pretty fair to say that Stewie had a better series than Asia Wilson did in the WNBA semifinals. So you have this occasion where Nafisa Collier really hasn't had any deep playoff runs. She had never won a playoff series before this year in the wnba. So this is her chance to sort of establish herself on that same echelon as Branda Stewart. As an Asia Wilson, you know, she won defensive player of the year. She's in the big awards conversations. What she needs is some team success to go along with that resume. You know, she was a starter on the Olympic team with Brianna Stewart and Asia Wilson. There's a lot of other accolades on her resume. But Minnesota Links need to win and I think the way that they win the series is fee has to be better than Stewie and it's we've seen it happen over the course of this regular season, but this is a different stage. Right. Like you talked to Sabrina UNESCO today, she Talked about her deer in the headlights moment during last year's finals, her first time being there. Like, Collier has been to a couple of Olympics. She's played in a national title game in college. Like, this isn't the first time she's been on a grand stage, but it is the first time she's playing a WNBA Finals. And so I do wonder how the stage is going to affect her. I wonder if she's gonna be able to be the same Fee that we've seen over the course of the playoffs. I mean, she just set a WNBA record with, what was it, three games in a row of 25 and 10. So it's not like she's been struggling thus far. But this is. This is a little bit different. This is another challenge. This is Brianna Stewart, like the Yukon goat that she was probably chasing over her last three years in stores. So I just. I just think it's really interesting to see those two players meeting after Fee, sort of, like chasing her all this time.
- [28:29]
Ben Pickman
And we should say, like, this is the quote, unquote storyline that I think will lead a lot of telecasts. We're gonna hear it a lot that, you know, these are people who played together at UConn. I think we're gonna see a lot of UConn photos, some UConn highlight reels. There's gonna be a lot of UConn Huskies chattered throughout this series. I think you make the key point in the middle of kind of your reflection there about Fee needing to be better than Stewie. And on the opposite end, you know, I think we both agree here that Stewie doesn't necessarily need to be better than Fee for New York to win the series. Right, because of Sabrina Unescu, because of John Qual Jones, because of just the options that New York has. So much of what Minnesota does revolves around Fee. And, you know, yes, they have won games in which she has not played her best. You know, point two, exhibit A, I guess, or exhibit B would be game two of the semifinals. Right. She has nine points against Connecticut. She has 12 rebounds, but she's 3 of 14 from the field. And still Minnesota defeats Connecticut in that game. So can Minnesota win with a subpar offensive Fee game? Absolutely. Can they win the series? I don't really think so. Whereas, you know, if Stewie plays slightly worse than if he's a Collier in each of these games, you know, if. If fee is getting 25 and 10 every night and Stewie is getting 20 and seven, you know, we're just throwing out hypotheticals. And it's slightly less efficient. I still think New York can win because of the talent around them. I don't think the opposite is true. The the other question, or like the axiom that is kind of being tested this postseason is what wins in the playoffs, right? And this is something I was kind of thinking about in the Aces New York series of so often we say best player in a series, like they're going to end up winning. And you know, we kind of saw that was not the case in the Aces New York series. And you make the argument, and I think it's a fair one, that someone like Stewie or even Sabrina Unescu outplayed Asia Wilson in that series. But like, in terms of resume Asia has had, you know, as we talked about, maybe the best season in WNB history is the best player in the world singularly, but team kind of beat player, so to speak. What is then interesting in this conversation is despite Fee being the number two person, like mvp, runner up, I still think a lot of people, myself included, think Brianna Stewart is a better player overall than if he's a Collier. And that's not a slight by any means. It's just, you know, where people are at in their career. But very much so. Minnesota could be the best team just because of how great Collier still is and the team around them. Now, I'm not necessarily saying that's going to happen. I think this is going to be a close series. But it's like an interesting test case again, right after the New York Vegas one about the best team or best player theory, right?
- [31:07]
Sabrina Merchant
And you look at Nafisa's box scores and maybe they're not telling a complete story of how she's performed against New York this year because, I mean, she averaged what, 16 points and 12 rebounds over the course of the regular season and they won two out of those three games. And then she scores 21 points in that Commissioners cup final when she wins MVP of that game dubiously, potentially. But I do think that Fee just affects the game in so many different ways that even if she's having an offense scoring night, so to speak, she is so good passing out of those doubles, she is such a commanding defensive player. Naturally she won defensive player of the year, but the way that she can take on any single matchup, the way she rotates and helps, she's constantly at that nail as that first line of defense, you know, in terms of protecting people, getting to the paint against Minnesota. So I do think that sometimes her box score may undersell the contribution that she's actually having to the game. So if we look at just numbers wise, maybe, you know, she's not having the same outsized production that we might expect, like from an Asia Wilson or people who put up gaudier statistics. I don't think that's necessarily capturing the whole Nafisa Collier experience.
- [32:09]
Ben Pickman
Yeah, and the Nafeesa Collier experience will be something that, as we're saying, closely watched, closely followed. We know how close her and Sheryl Reeve are, how much this moment kind of means for them both. Like, one of the things that has been so interesting here is Minnesota looks for its first title since 2017, and we should say if they win a title, they'll actually have the most WNBA championships of any active franchise in the league. So there's a lot at stake for them in terms of just being kind of the. The peak, the top of the league. Nafisa Collier kind of marks this next generation of Minnesota Lynx players after Lindsay Whelan, after Simone Augustus, after Rebecca Brunson, after Sylvia Fowles, like a group of hall of Famers. And Nafisa Collier is kind of the next gen and came in right after them. And so often it was like, can she be. And Maya Moore, we should say. I omitted Maya Moore from that list. I know.
- [33:00]
Sabrina Merchant
In case you didn't get that, I.
- [33:01]
Ben Pickman
Was like, I'm just going through. I'm, like, rattling through the names. How did I forget? You know, maybe the greatest player of all time. But Nafisa Collier is the next generation of these players. And it was interesting in Connecticut to hear Cheryl Reeve acknowledge that, like, you know, she's still in contact with them, that Sylvia Fowles and her still text sometimes during games, which is kind of funny to think about, and that it's actually Cheryl Reeve texting Sylvia Fowles like, we're not boxing out enough versus, like, the other way around. Not exactly what I thought when I asked Cheryl that question, but, you know, Fee ran right over to Lindsay Whelan after the series ended, and I think it just was this kind of. Chantelle Jennings, our colleague, wrote about this. A little bit of a passing of the torch moment. So this could be just a huge stamp in the passing of the torch in terms of the legacy and really significant for a franchise that just had hall of Famers, if she is the person to kind of lead them back to. Back to the stage. Okay, number two thing that we're watching for, I know we've thrown a lot out so far. What is the next thing that you think is going to determine who wins this title.
- [33:58]
Sabrina Merchant
So maybe not as flashy as Nafisa Collier versus Brianna Stewart, but rebounding, you think about Minnesota, and they were such a fun offensive team to watch this season. Led the WNBA historically, an assist rate, get up a lot of threes, move the ball around. Super fun to watch. Thing they don't do particularly well is clean the glass, especially defensive rebounding. And New York Liberty, a very good offensive rebounding team. They absolutely obliterated the Las Vegas Aces on the offensive glass, points in the paint, second chance points. So I do think that this is one of the areas where you see New York's size manifested most clearly in that they do a great job of getting second chances in Minnesota. If there's one thing they struggle at, it's that defensive rebounding piece. So if that margin tilts heavily in New York's favor, that's something that I worry about.
- [34:41]
Ben Pickman
Minnesota overcoming, we should say too, like, depth is another thing that I think both of these teams have, and Minnesota has strengthened their depth throughout the season. They made a big trade for Myisha Heinz Allen, getting her from Washington, and she can obviously be an impactful rebounder, though she still is a little undersized compared to Brianna Stewart and Jonquil Jones. Jorka Juhas, you know, was injured, I believe, late in the year or right at the start of the postseason. She's now fully healthy and we saw her a little bit at the tail end of the Connecticut series. But she in theory helps on the glass some and is, you know, bring some size to the series. But I wouldn't expect her to play a big role on the glass. I think a lot of this will have to be on Smith and maybe Hines, Allen and Collier and I guess to the others to team rebound and try and keep New York off the glass. Or it's the kind of kind of strategic chess match that you're giving off, right? That, like, what are you trading, what are you allowing? I think the thing that is difficult here, and you talk about New York being the significantly better offensive rebounding team, is in a game of margins where margins are so important. Every possession matters, getting four or five, six more shots, seven more shots than your opponent, you know, that could be the difference. And you know, we talk about these small things separating the teams like an offensive rebound into a three, an offensive rebound into a layup, like, it's just significant in a final series when these two teams are as closely, as matched.
- [36:06]
Sabrina Merchant
As they are, there's really nothing quite as backbreaking as an Offensive rebound leading to a three. You think about a couple of those big shots that Minnesota had against Connecticut. I think about Nafisa Collier offensive rebounds leading to Bridget Carlton three or, you know, Marina Mabry hitting three off of offensive rebound against Minnesota in that last series. Like, those are just such momentum shifters. And for a team like New York that already gets up such a high volume of threes to enable them to get more of those, I think the glass piece is something that Minnesota might have to reconsider how they are boxing out if they send more to the glass instead of trying to get back into transition defense. Because I just don't think this is an area where you can let New York create that many more second chances.
- [36:44]
Ben Pickman
And I should say from experience, the Sabrina Unescu kind of offensive rebound into her deep three. Like, there is almost no play that the New York crowd likes more than, like when JJ or Stewie tips it out to Sabrina, who hits a big three, who then skips and jumps and pumps the crowd up and, you know, flexes or high fives Spike Lee or does whatever she does. Like, that is the kind of moment that gives her and gives the crowd so much energy. And I think especially in these first two games at home, like that is, you know, one of the things that if I'm Minnesota, you really need to avoid. You just can't let it happen. You have to get out on those offensive rebound opportunities.
- [37:20]
Sabrina Merchant
Yeah, Minnesota did well enough against Connecticut, you know, to, I wouldn't say win the battle on the glass, but like, you know, keep it close. And Connecticut isn't the type of team that's going to get up as many three pointers, you know, off of those second chances. So I think that's just where it becomes even slightly more important against the Liberty because of that extra point.
- [37:35]
Ben Pickman
Let's now go, I guess to our most important thing that we are watching for that we think will determine who wins. I guess this is our fifth thing, or our first thing, rather. Sabrina, what do you think? You have your circling one time, two times, three times over.
- [37:51]
Sabrina Merchant
What version of Jonquil Jones are we getting in this series? You think about the 2023 postseason and Jonquill Jones was the best, most consistent player for the New York Liberty and against the Minnesota Links this year she has been anything but. She had one good game in the regular season against the Lynx, incidentally, the game that the Liberty happened to win where she scored more than 20 points. Every other outing was in single digits. She let herself get taken out of the game with these Offensive fouls. The congestion in the defense really hurt her. She wasn't able to find her footing in the paint. She tried to force a lot of things, committed some turnovers, just a really bad version of jj. And New York relies upon her so much to do that, facilitating from the top of the key to sort of get their offense moving, you know, as that pick and roll partner with Sabrina Unescu. So and then their defense struggles when she's off the court because just Niara Sable is not the same version of a rim protector or Kennedy Burke for that matter, who's been taking these backup center minutes over the last couple games. They just can't approximate the defense that Jonquil Jones gives, which is so important again against this Minnesota team. So I think, you know, if JJ can establish herself early, if she can stay on the floor, you know, make Atlanta Smith work, potentially even get Atlanta Smith in foul trouble. Just the barometer of what Jonquil Jones can give, I think is going to be the most important for what New York can deliver.
- [39:07]
Ben Pickman
And we should just stress again like her worst game of the season came against Minnesota. Now it's back in late May. It's May 25th. It's a 17 point loss by New York. But she had four points in that game. She had five fouls and three turnovers and she took just five shots like they took her out of the game. Did the Minnesota Links. Atlanta Smith, Nafisa Collier did such a good job of doing that and Smith like give her a ton of credit. She's second team all defense. She consistently improves. Like we talk a lot about on this show, just her growth over these years and I think her ability to, to contain and battle with JJ and be effective is, you know, as good of an example that illustrates her improvement as anything. The thing about John Paul Jones too, like the stats about basically she gets a double double. New York wins like over the last two years. That is mathematically almost the case. She has one double double since I want to say mid August or late August. It was against the Las Vegas aces in game one. She had 13 and 12, but before that she had gone more than a month without a double double. Pretty striking for John Cole Jones, who you would think it just her size and Presence can get 10 rebounds and 10 points in her sleep. That has not been the case. And so I think you're right. It, it's the ultimate barometer. Like she doesn't need to be New York's best player to win the series. I think Sabrina Unescu, Brianna Stewart could be the best player for New York to win this series. But I think we're going to learn a lot early on and throughout based on how she performs.
- [40:32]
Sabrina Merchant
Yeah, you mentioned her worst game coming in May against the Minnesota Lynx. I mean she wasn't even very good their last regular season meeting. She ends with nine points and five rebounds and gets benched for almost the entirety of the fourth quarter as Sandy Brandella chooses to go with Nara Sable for more energy and more hustle which she just wasn't getting from JJ and that double double streak, you know that the absence of those over the course of the playoffs, I mean could Jonquil Jones have been more passive in Games 3 and 4 against the Las Vegas Aces? You know, she gets into early foul trouble in both of those games and it really forced New York to have to dig deep in both. They weren't able to do so in game three and then in game four, like the defensive effort from the rest of the team really came through. But I just don't think that New York can absorb that kind of performance from Jonquil Jones against a team that is as deep as Minnesota against a team that will just frustrate everything else if that initial hub of offense isn't working.
- [41:20]
Ben Pickman
And we should say too like Jon Quell is a league mvp. She's a multi time all star. She's frankly can be. She is one of the few players in the league who can be the most dominant and best player on a floor on any given night. And we have seen that throughout the season. The other thing to watch is like so often this year New York has talked about the scar and learning from losing to the Las Vegas Aces last year. Well guess what, John Qual Jones is a few more scars than just losing to the Las Vegas Aces. This is her fourth WNBA Finals appearance and she has yet to win a title. Now of course every situation is different. Two of those are with Connecticut and you, you know, one was a, a five game thrilling series to Washington earlier in her career. She's playing a little bit of a different role than she is now. A second time is, you know, Las Vegas going up against Connecticut. She's the mvp. But like compare those rosters and the talent on those teams. Like she was the underdog entering that series and then you have last year, but still like you want to talk about someone with a hunger and a passion and a desire who has worked their whole life to get to this moment. She's been to this point, like we're talking on a Wednesday before game one. She's been, you know, the day before games one, she's had a lot of those, even in the finals. Right. But, like, she hasn't gotten over the hump. And so you just wonder what this means to her and what it can mean to her if they are finally able to do that.
- [42:37]
Sabrina Merchant
Yeah. And it's definitely not all on Jonquill that she wasn't able to get over the hump. You look at the series against Las Vegas last year where she was the best player for New York and was not her fault that New York ended up coming short in that series. But, yeah, losing three straight finals, you know, with three different teams. Well, kind of three different teams, but against three different opponents, that's just a lot to handle. And I. I would feel very badly for John Quail Jones if that were to transpire.
- [43:03]
Ben Pickman
We'll see what happens. We'll see what it means, I guess. Sabrina, we've been talking almost 40 minutes now. I know at the beginning of the show, you said you were hoping to reach a prediction and figure out what you really feel deep down about this series towards the end of our show. So I guess as we start to wrap this up and, you know, go back to practice and continue to learn more and work on various stories that we have coming out on the athletic.com I got to get that plug in, I guess. What are you feeling right now in terms of who you think wins this series and in how many games?
- [43:33]
Sabrina Merchant
So I entered the playoffs thinking that Minnesota was my title favorite in this matchup against the New York Liberty because I like the way that they had performed over the course of the regular season. I still like Minnesota, although the starting lineup change for New York, putting Feebich in place of Vander Slu, really changes where Minnesota can attack offensively. I think it just affects the geometry on both ends of the floor to the point where I'm going. Liberty in five.
- [43:59]
Ben Pickman
Wow. I was not expecting. Again, we did not talk about this. I was not expecting a little flip. That was a little league corso s like to, you know, build up one team. Team talk. Minnesota. Minnesota. Yeah. You should just put the Minnesota Lynx cap on if you want to get a demonstration. No, I'm just kidding. There was no. There was no mascot hat involved, though. Look, maybe Sabrina, if we could find the Ellie mascot head, like, if we could have put that on or you could have put that on, that would have been not a visual medium yet.
- [44:26]
Sabrina Merchant
At the athletic basketball show.
- [44:27]
Ben Pickman
Okay, so you have New York in five games now. Fascinating prediction. I'm Going to go New York in four games. What I think is kind of interesting, and I'll get to my explanation in a second, is we've had three straight WNBA Finals that have ended in four games. Not. But before that, not since 2012, had a series ended in four games. I don't really know. I don't know if you have a theory as to why that might be. I don't think you'd heard that stat before based on your reaction, but, like, it's kind of crazy to think about that right now. Four seems, you know, four is basically the NBA equivalent of six. Like, you just kind of feel like New York gets two, Minnesota gets one, and maybe, you know, New York then closes it out to avoid that fifth game. But we hadn't had that for a while until recent years when it's just been the course of action now. I guess then I'm still going to take the four games. I think New York's length, I think the talent. And really, I think it comes down to Sabrina Unescu just being maybe the best player in this series. Like she, I think, arguably was the best player in the Las Vegas series. Becky Hammond, all she did was talk about Sabrina Unescu as the head of New York Snake, the player that, you know, was the motor that led everything to go for New York, and that the player that Las Vegas needed to shut down. And we saw in game three of that series when Unescu was shut down, you know, a good example of what happens. Las Vegas had a lot more success. So I think Unescu actually is the Finals MVP in this series. I think she's the best player in this series. And I think New York wins in four games because of her improvement. Because I think Fee and Stewart might cancel each other out because I'm not really sure what you're getting from jj. I think she's productive, but, like, Alanna Smith can bring it, Caleb McBride can bring it. I think the advantage New York has more than anything else is that, you know, as far as greatest Courtney Williams has been, Sabrina Unescu is another tier of player. And I think this is kind of the moment she's trained her whole life for and, you know, gets it done in front of so many people watching.
- [46:18]
Sabrina Merchant
Yeah. If it wasn't for the fact that I think Minnesota has like a 10% chance of winning game one, I still might pick them in the series. But as you mentioned earlier, just falling behind the eight ball that early is going to be really tough to recover, especially against a team as talented as New York, which is why slightest of edges to the New York Liberty. But if I had to pick a Finals mvp, I think I would still lean with Stewart just because I think defensively she's going to have her fingerprints all over the series. Having to take the Collier matchup is going to be incredibly important to shutting down what Minnesota is going to do. So that's where I would lean.
- [46:48]
Ben Pickman
It's going to be interesting. As you know, you agonize over this pick. Like the slightest of margins could be the difference. And I hope on this show that we work through what we think some of those margins are. And you know, what are the things that you should be watching for as this series gets underway on Thursday at 8pm Eastern on ESPN. We should say the reason it's just us two is because Zena Kada, who normally hosts the show, she's actually en route as we tape this show to New York. She'll be in New York. Ashley Young from our social team will be producing social content for us that you can see on all the athletic channels. Social, you know, Instagram, TikTok, Twitter, wherever else you read and see our stuff. And we'll have plenty of stories ourselves. I think Chantelle Jennings might chip in from Minneapolis as well. So we'll have you covered wire to wire as we have done this whole postseason. We'll be at all of these games, both of us at all these games, bringing you tons of insights. We'll have live blogs, plenty of stories to come, some podcast reactions as well. And Sabrina, I guess any final thoughts as you settle into Brooklyn and get ready for this series?
- [47:47]
Sabrina Merchant
There's a good chance by tomorrow when my written prediction comes out that I've gone back to Minnesota. So don't hold it answer.
- [47:53]
Ben Pickman
I think some people might hold that against you, but that is okay. You flip flop predictions before. I'm not gonna flip flop. But we are both. I think the thing we can agree on is we're gonna enjoy this series. And so we thank everyone for listening, for reading our stuff, for enjoying the WNB playoffs so far. And you know, we will talk to you later this week once the finals have begun. We're finally here, Sabrina. It's an exciting time to be following the WNBM.
- [48:22]
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Sabrina Merchant
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Sabrina Merchant
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