No Offseason: The Athletic Women's Basketball Show
Episode: Five Key Factors for the WNBA Finals
Release Date: October 10, 2024

Introduction

In this special edition of No Offseason, hosts Ben Pickman and Sabrina Merchant delve deep into the highly anticipated WNBA Finals between the New York Liberty and the Minnesota Lynx. With both teams having secured their spots by prevailing in their respective semifinal series, the stage is set for a championship showdown filled with history, legacies, and intense competition.

Overview of the Finals Matchup

The Finals feature the New York Liberty, the first seed with the best offensive rating in the league, against the Minnesota Lynx, the second seed boasting the top defensive rating. Both teams have demonstrated exceptional performance throughout the season, making this Finals series one of the most compelling in recent years.

Ben Pickman (04:51):

"And here we are, mid October. A championship is on the line. A lot of history is on the line. A lot of legacies will be made over these next two weeks and it should be a really, really great series."

Key Factor 1: Rest vs. Rust - Energy and Schedule

The first factor discussed revolves around the Lynx’s recent performance and their ability to maintain energy levels despite a tight schedule. Minnesota clinched their semifinal win against the Connecticut Sun with a game five victory just 48 hours before facing New York, requiring a swift transition and travel.

Sabrina Merchant (07:22):

"The first thing I really want to think about is how much energy Minnesota is going to have coming off of that game five and heading into a game one that is just about 48 hours later in a different city."

Ben Pickman (08:14):

"Minnesota had this grinding five game series with Connecticut, and they weren't just playing a team that, you know, spreads it out and runs up and down the floor and shoots threes like this is the Connecticut Sun."

The quick turnaround could lead to fatigue, potentially impacting Minnesota's performance from the outset. However, both coaches emphasize that Minnesota is determined not to let this schedule derail their Finals aspirations.

Key Factor 2: Three-Point Shooting

Both teams are among the top three-point shooting squads in the league, making perimeter shooting a critical determinant in the series outcome. Sabrina highlights the importance of beyond-the-arc performance:

Sabrina Merchant (13:07):

"I think Minnesota was just able to get into its offense better against New York. Whether that was because New York was playing a different lineup during the regular season than they are now."

Ben Pickman (15:10):

"One of the things to watch for is how Minnesota's guards and wings kind of perform from behind the arc."

The ability to capitalize on three-point opportunities could swing momentum in favor of either team, especially given the high volume of attempts each side generates.

Key Factor 3: Key Player Matchups - Stewie vs. Fee

A pivotal matchup in the series is between Brianna Stewart of the Liberty and Nafisa Collier of the Lynx. Both are standout players with significant playoff experience and have been instrumental in their teams' successes.

Sabrina Merchant (25:55):

"Is Stewie versus Fee. Right. Let's keep this as obvious as possible. Best player on New York, best player on Minnesota."

Their performance is expected to be a game-changer. Sabrina believes that Stewart's defensive prowess will be crucial in containing Collier, who has set impressive records this postseason.

Ben Pickman (26:15):

"This is the quote, unquote storyline that I think will lead a lot of telecasts. We're gonna see a lot of UConn photos, some UConn highlight reels."

The clash between these two stars not only highlights their individual talents but also underscores their shared UConn heritage, adding an extra layer of narrative to the Finals.

Key Factor 4: Rebounding - Offensive and Defensive Glass

Rebounding is another critical factor that could influence the series outcome. New York excels in offensive rebounding, generating numerous second-chance points, while Minnesota has shown vulnerabilities in their defensive rebounding.

Sabrina Merchant (33:58):

"Rebounding, you think about Minnesota, and they were such a fun offensive team to watch this season. Led the WNBA historically in assist rate, got up a lot of threes, move the ball around."

Ben Pickman (34:41):

"Every possession matters, getting four or five, six more shots, seven more shots than your opponent, you know, that could be the difference."

Controlling the glass will be essential, with New York looking to capitalize on their size and strength to dominate the rebounding battle, thereby limiting Minnesota’s second-chance opportunities.

Key Factor 5: Jonquill Jones' Performance

Jonquill Jones, a vital player for New York, plays a significant role in both the offense and defense. Her ability to contribute consistently versus Minnesota will be a crucial indicator of the series’ direction.

Sabrina Merchant (37:51):

"What version of Jonquill Jones are we getting in this series?"

Jones has struggled in past Finals appearances, and her performance against Minnesota could tip the scales in either team's favor. Sabrina emphasizes the importance of Jones establishing herself early in the series to avoid putting undue pressure on her teammates.

Ben Pickman (40:31):

"Jon Quell is a league MVP. She's a multi-time All-Star. She's frankly can be. She is one of the few players in the league who can be the most dominant and best player on a floor on any given night."

Jones' ability to stay on the court, avoid foul trouble, and contribute effectively will be under intense scrutiny as the series progresses.

Conclusion and Predictions

As the Finals kick off, Ben and Sabrina offer their predictions based on the discussed factors. Sabrina opts for the New York Liberty to win the series in five games, citing Sabrina Unescu’s pivotal role and the strategic advantages New York holds. Ben, on the other hand, favors New York to clinch the title in four games, highlighting Unescu’s potential as the Finals MVP and the overall talent within the Liberty roster.

Sabrina Merchant (43:58):

"Liberty in five."

Ben Pickman (44:25):

"I'll still go New York in four games."

Both hosts agree that regardless of the outcome, the series promises to be an exciting and closely contested battle, showcasing the best of women's basketball.

Final Thoughts

The hosts wrap up the episode by expressing their enthusiasm for the Finals and hinting at future discussions and content as the series unfolds. They emphasize the significance of the series for both franchises and the broader impact on the WNBA.

Ben Pickman (48:22):

"Well, we are gonna enjoy this series. And so we thank everyone for listening, for reading our stuff, for enjoying the WNBA playoffs so far."

Sabrina Merchant (47:47):

"There's a good chance by tomorrow when my written prediction comes out that I've gone back to Minnesota. So don't hold it against me."

As fans gear up for the Finals, No Offseason assures comprehensive coverage, insightful analysis, and expert commentary to enhance the viewing experience.

Notable Quotes

• Ben Pickman (04:51):

  "A lot of legacies will be made over these next two weeks and it should be a really, really great series."

• Sabrina Merchant (07:22):

  "How much is that rust versus rest gonna factor into this Game one?"

• Ben Pickman (15:10):

  "Those are free points. And when you think about, you know, why Connecticut is not in this situation, in some ways you can point to Marina Mabry kind of struggling in games two and three of that series."

• Sabrina Merchant (25:55):

  "Stewie versus Fee. Right. Let's keep this as obvious as possible. Best player on New York, best player on Minnesota."

• Ben Pickman (40:31):

  "Jon Quell is a league MVP. She's a multi-time All-Star."

This comprehensive analysis by Ben Pickman and Sabrina Merchant offers listeners a thorough understanding of the dynamics at play in the WNBA Finals, highlighting the pivotal factors that could determine the championship outcome. Whether you're a die-hard fan or new to women's basketball, this episode provides valuable insights to enhance your Finals experience.